森麒麟：2025Q1业绩短期承压，看好“黄金三角”全球产能布局-20250512

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [4][10] Core Views - The company experienced strong sales and production in 2024, but faced pressure on profitability in Q1 2025. The revenue for 2024 was CNY 8.511 billion, up 8.53% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 2.186 billion, up 59.74% year-on-year. However, Q1 2025 saw total revenue of CNY 2.056 billion, down 2.79% quarter-on-quarter and 5.28% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 361 million, down 28.29% quarter-on-quarter and 21.52% year-on-year [4][5][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company produced 32.2261 million tires, a 10.22% increase year-on-year, and sold 31.4087 million tires, a 7.34% increase year-on-year. Q1 2025 sales were 7.3774 million tires, down 3.02% year-on-year [5] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 32.84%, an increase of 7.63 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 gross margin was 22.75%, down 8.58 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 2.46 percentage points year-on-year [5] Global Expansion and Production Capacity - The company's Thailand factory significantly increased its performance in 2024, generating CNY 5.337 billion in revenue, up 22.69% year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 1.306 billion, up 53.72% year-on-year. The Morocco factory is expected to ramp up production in 2025, contributing to revenue growth [6][10] - The company is also developing a smart manufacturing base in Spain, with a planned annual production of 12 million high-performance tires [6] Market Environment and Strategic Positioning - The report highlights the impact of global trade tensions, particularly the U.S. tariffs on imported tires, which could affect the market. The company's diversified global production layout helps mitigate some of these risks [7] - The "Golden Triangle" production strategy, which includes facilities in China, Thailand, and Morocco, positions the company well for global competition [7][10] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of CNY 2.010 billion, CNY 2.353 billion, and CNY 2.733 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 9, and 7 [10]