GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-05-16 02:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group, with a target price of 41 USD and 162 HKD based on a 9x 2025e P/E ratio [3][5]. Core Insights - JD Group reported a revenue of 301.1 billion CNY for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.8%. The revenue breakdown includes JD Retail at 263.8 billion CNY, JD Logistics at 47.0 billion CNY, and new businesses at 5.8 billion CNY, with respective growth rates of 16.3%, 11.5%, and 18.1% [1]. - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of 12.8 billion CNY for the same quarter, marking a 43% increase year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of approximately 4.2% [1]. - The growth in the consumer electronics category was particularly strong, with revenue reaching 144.3 billion CNY, up 17.1% year-on-year, driven by supportive consumption policies and JD's supply chain advantages [1]. - JD's expansion into the food delivery business has seen rapid growth, with over 1 million stores onboarded and daily orders approaching 20 million, enhancing cross-selling opportunities within its platform [2]. Financial Summary - The projected revenues for JD Group from 2025 to 2027 are 1,300.2 billion CNY, 1,451.1 billion CNY, and 1,607.8 billion CNY, with growth rates of 12%, 12%, and 11% respectively [3][4]. - Non-GAAP net profits are expected to reach 51.0 billion CNY, 57.0 billion CNY, and 64.6 billion CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 7%, 12%, and 13% respectively [3][4]. - The report indicates a steady improvement in profit margins, with non-GAAP net profit margins projected to stabilize around 3.9% to 4.0% in the coming years [4][12].