空头情绪延续，锂价或仍有新低

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the cost side has stopped falling and stabilized, with some third - party quotes rising. The pre - scheduled production of cathode material factories has been reduced, downstream sentiment is cautious, market transactions are sluggish, and there is no obvious improvement on the demand side. The upstream resumption of production is slow, and production cuts are increasing, resulting in a weak fundamental situation [4]. - In terms of cost, during the reporting period, the price of spodumene rebounded, while the mica price continued to decline [4]. - On the trading floor, after the signing of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement, there was a short - term rally due to short - sellers leaving the market, but the rebound was limited, and the trading volume increased significantly. The short - selling trend continued, and the price hit a new low on Friday [4]. - In the later stage, there is no expectation of fundamental improvement, the short - selling sentiment is strong, and the price may break through the previous low. Although the lithium ore price has stabilized and miners are willing to support the price, the lithium ore resources are not scarce, and the bargaining power of the mining end is limited. The supply - side resumption of production is slow, and production cuts are limited. The salt lake is still in the production - increasing stage, and there is an inventory expectation at the import end. The demand side has weak growth, and the lithium price may remain weak [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The price of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) remained unchanged at 115 dollars/ton; the price of imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased by 1.13% to 715 dollars/ton; the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased by 1.70% to 695 dollars/ton [6]. - The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 1.59% to 6.30 million yuan/ton; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, a 100% decrease [6]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.34% to 92,073 tons [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,624 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 62,580 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 328,700 lots [8]. - On the supply side, as of May 16, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 15,843 tons, a decrease of 205 tons from the previous period. Although smelters had production cuts, the salt lake was in the production - increasing stage, so the supply - side contraction was limited [8]. - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a 47% month - on - month increase and a 4.8% year - on - year decrease. The import from Chile and Argentina changed, and the increase in imports from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply in May [8]. - In March, the import of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a 5.8% month - on - month decrease. The imports from different countries had different changes, and overall, lithium ore resources were not scarce [9][10]. - In terms of demand, for cathode materials, the production and prices of some products decreased, and the overall cathode material market was in an oversupply situation, with most prices still falling. Some cathode material factories reduced their production plans in May, and there was no obvious increase in lithium demand expected [11]. - In the new energy vehicle market, from May 1 - 11, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 294,000, a 32% year - on - year increase and a 29% month - on - month increase. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 51.3%. New energy vehicle consumption still had resilience, and new policies were introduced [12]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 16, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 92,073 tons, an increase of 311 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased, while the market inventory decreased, showing a differentiated trend [13]. This Week's Outlook - The short - selling sentiment continues, and the lithium price may hit a new low. There is no expectation of fundamental improvement, the short - selling sentiment on the trading floor is strong, and the price may break through. Although the lithium ore price has stabilized, the supply - side resumption of production is slow, and the demand side has weak growth [14]. Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million, and the sales of various consumer goods increased [15]. - On May 7, the Guangdong Provincial People's Government Office issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, supply structure, and import volume of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, cathode materials, and related battery products from 2022 - 2025 [17][19][22][28]