Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillatory adjustment due to the weakening fundamentals. The supply side shows that last week's shipping and arrival volumes both declined month - on - month, with shipping volume at a medium level in recent years and arrival volume at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating a relatively loose supply. On the demand side, the number of steel mill overhauls increased last week, combined with the weakening downstream demand, leading to a decline in molten iron production from its peak [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3082 yuan/ton, a rise of 60 yuan, a rise rate of 1.99%, a total trading volume of 9932652 lots, and a total open interest of 2795790 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3226 yuan/ton, a rise of 69 yuan, a rise rate of 2.19%, a total trading volume of 3176582 lots, and a total open interest of 1362524 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 728.0 yuan/ton, a rise of 32.0 yuan, a rise rate of 4.60%, a total trading volume of 2364452 lots, and a total open interest of 757976 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 852.5 yuan/ton, a fall of 25.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 2.85%, a total trading volume of 2616452 lots, and a total open interest of 464062 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1445.5 yuan/ton, a fall of 1.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 0.07%, a total trading volume of 132073 lots, and a total open interest of 51651 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated and rose, mainly driven by the macro - environment, but were dragged down by the weakening molten iron production, resulting in a fall after reaching a high. In the spot market, the price of Rizhao Port PB powder was 765 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 638 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 127 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, the number of steel mill overhauls increased last week, combined with the weakening downstream demand, leading to a decline in molten iron production from its peak. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.36 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 244.77 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.88 tons [4]. - On the supply side, last week's shipping and arrival volumes both declined month - on - month, with shipping volume at a medium level in recent years and arrival volume at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating a relatively loose supply. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2422.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 117.9 tons. The Australian shipping volume was 1797.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.0 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1593.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 75.4 tons. The Brazilian shipping volume was 625.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 146.0 tons. The total global iron ore shipping volume was 3029.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.5 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14746.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.72 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 339.59 tons, an increase of 11.08 tons [5]. Industry News - The joint statement of the China - US high - level economic and trade talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China also correspondingly suspended or cancelled non - tariff counter - measures against the US. Both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [6][7]. - According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy application volume has exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy application volume for automobile trade - in reached 3.225 million, of which new - energy vehicles accounted for more than 53% [10]. - From January to April, the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; the new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the money supply M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than last month [10]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis trends, steel mill profits, black metal smelting and rolling industry profitability, iron ore supply and demand indicators (such as shipping volume, arrival volume, inventory, etc.), and steel production and consumption indicators (such as daily and monthly production, apparent consumption, etc.) [9][11][13]
铁矿周报：铁水产量见顶，铁矿调整为主-20250519
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-05-19 08:03