Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 21.9, representing a potential upside of 62.2% from the current price of HKD 13.52 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a resurgence, driven by three key receptor agonists that have shown promising results in clinical trials. The collaboration with Novo Nordisk for the drug UBT251 is expected to enhance revenue and profit in the coming years [5][6]. - The company has a strong position in the antibiotic market, with a comprehensive supply chain and a focus on high-barrier environmental compliance, ensuring long-term stability [5][21]. - The insulin segment is also expanding, with the company successfully participating in national procurement and increasing its market share in the face of rising domestic demand for insulin products [5][39]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the fiscal years ending December 31 are as follows: 2023A: CNY 13.74 billion, 2024A: CNY 13.76 billion, 2025E: CNY 14.40 billion, 2026E: CNY 13.00 billion, and 2027E: CNY 13.39 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 21.2% in 2023, followed by modest growth and a decline in 2026 [3][19]. - Net profit estimates are: 2023A: CNY 2.72 billion, 2024A: CNY 2.69 billion, 2025E: CNY 3.08 billion, 2026E: CNY 2.22 billion, and 2027E: CNY 2.41 billion, with a significant increase of 71.1% in 2023, followed by fluctuations in subsequent years [3][19]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be CNY 1.49 for 2023, decreasing slightly to CNY 1.46 in 2024, and then increasing to CNY 1.68 in 2025 [3][19]. Business Analysis - The company’s operations are divided into three main segments: intermediates, active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), and formulations. In 2024, the sales breakdown is expected to be 19.3% from intermediates, 46.3% from APIs, and 34.4% from formulations [19]. - The antibiotic segment remains a significant revenue driver, with a focus on high-demand products such as 6-APA and amoxicillin, where the company holds a substantial market share [5][21]. - The insulin and GLP-1 segment is also growing, with the company participating in national procurement and achieving significant sales growth in its insulin products [5][39]. Production Capacity - The company has established seven production bases and is constructing five additional ones, which are expected to contribute over CNY 5 billion in annual output once operational [14][15]. - The production capacity for 6-APA and penicillin G potassium is currently at 20,500 tons, with a utilization rate of 93.5% for amoxicillin, indicating a strong production capability [34][35]. Management Team - The management team is stable and experienced, with key members having over 20 years in the pharmaceutical industry, ensuring effective oversight and strategic direction [16][18].
联邦制药（03933）：联邦制药3933-首发报告-20250521 繁体