光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250523

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The daily report focuses on the lithium carbonate market on May 23, 2025. The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract rose 1.67% to 62,140 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 63,050 yuan/ton, while the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 61,450 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 150 yuan/ton [2]. - Zimbabwe's lithium exporters' association requested a two - and - a - half - year delay in a 5% tax to foster local smelters. The government uses the higher - value lithium carbonate price as the benchmark for calculating royalties [2]. - The market price and transaction price of lithium ore have declined. Supply decreased by 537 tons to 16,093 tons this week, with a significant reduction in lithium extraction from spodumene. Demand for lithium carbonate in ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to increase slightly in May, and the cell segment remains prosperous. Inventory decreased by 141 tons to 131,779 tons this week, with downstream and other sectors reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [2]. - The current market contradiction lies in supply. Although the production cut in the lithium salt sector is becoming more evident, the lithium ore price continues to fall, and mines have not stopped or reduced production. The fundamentals are still weak, but short - term capital disturbances and market sentiment driven by news should be watched out for [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - Futures and Spot Prices: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.67% to 62,140 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 63,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 61,450 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 150 yuan/ton [2]. - News: Zimbabwe's lithium exporters' association requested a delay in a 5% tax, and the government uses a higher - value lithium carbonate price for royalty calculations [2]. - Price, Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Lithium ore prices declined. Supply decreased by 537 tons to 16,093 tons this week, with a large drop in spodumene - based lithium extraction. Demand for lithium carbonate in ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to increase slightly in May, and the cell segment is booming. Inventory decreased by 141 tons to 131,779 tons this week, with downstream and other sectors reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [2]. - Market Outlook: The current market contradiction is supply - oriented. Despite production cuts in the lithium salt sector, the fundamentals are weak as lithium ore prices fall and mines do not cut production. Short - term capital disturbances and news - driven market sentiment should be monitored [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 62,140 yuan/ton, up 1,040 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 62,160 yuan/ton, up 980 yuan [4]. - Lithium Ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) and lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained unchanged at 690 US dollars/ton and 705 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Lithium Salts: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 150 yuan/ton [4]. - Other Products: The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium remained unchanged, and the prices of some precursors and cathode materials decreased slightly [4]. Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [5][7]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [8][10][12]. - Price Spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [15][16]. - Precursors and Cathode Materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [19][22][25]. - Lithium Battery Prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][30]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other segments from September 2024 to May 2025 [33][35]. - Production Costs: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [37][38].