钢材、铁矿石日报：弱势情绪未退，钢矿承压下行-20250527

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak performance, with a daily decline of 1.23%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the contradiction in the fundamentals of rebar is continuously accumulating under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. Coupled with weak market sentiment, steel prices will continue to seek the bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the change in demand [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.33%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. At present, the supply of hot-rolled coil has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable, and the corresponding demand is weakening. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. Coupled with weakening market sentiment, hot-rolled coil prices are under pressure and running weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated downward, with a daily decline of 1.76%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and ore prices continue to be under pressure and run weakly. The relatively favorable factor is that the futures price discount is large, so there is resistance to decline. In the short term, under the dominance of bearish factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the decline in molten iron production [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% (calculated on a comparable basis). Among them, the total profit of state-owned holding enterprises was 702.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; that of joint-stock enterprises was 1.55964 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1%; that of foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises was 542.92 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; and that of private enterprises was 570.68 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% [6]. - According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total planned production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines in June 2025 is 35.15 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. Specifically, the planned production volume of household air conditioners in June is 20.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%; that of refrigerators is 7.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; and that of washing machines is 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production volume of the previous year [7]. - On May 26, 2025, the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission issued Announcement No. 2025/043, stating that in response to the application submitted by Baowu Group Echeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., a Chinese exporter, it initiated an anti-dumping review investigation on steel reinforcing bars with a diameter of 50 mm or less exported to Australia. The investigation period for dumping is from April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025. The Australian Customs codes of the涉案 products are 7213.10.00.42, 7214.20.00.47, etc. The Australian Anti-Dumping Commission expects to complete the basic fact report of this investigation no later than September 15, 2025, and submit the final ruling report to the Australian Minister for Industry and Science no later than October 28, 2025 [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap all decreased. The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) dropped by 15 yuan to 3,246 yuan; the national average price of hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) dropped by 24 yuan to 3,276 yuan; the price of Tangshan billet (Q235) dropped by 20 yuan to 2,900 yuan; and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) dropped by 40 yuan to 2,080 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port dropped by 6 yuan to 734 yuan, while the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged at 738 yuan. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil changed slightly, and the prices of SGX swaps and the Platts Index also decreased [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 2,980 yuan, a decline of 1.23%, with a trading volume of 1,935,755 lots and an increase in open interest of 50,834 lots. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract was 3,111 yuan, a decline of 1.33%, with a trading volume of 694,483 lots and an increase in open interest of 42,818 lots. The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract was 698.5 yuan, a decline of 1.76%, with a trading volume of 455,965 lots and a decrease in open interest of 10,680 lots [11]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories, total inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coil (steel mills + social inventories), national 45-port iron ore inventories, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories. It also includes charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills, and the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces [13][26]. 5. Future Market Outlook - Rebar: There are changes in both supply and demand. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and the weekly output of rebar increased by 49,500 tons compared with the previous week. Supply continues to rise and is at a high level this year. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened again, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 131,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the high-frequency daily trading volume also decreasing. Both are still at low levels in recent years. The weak demand will still suppress steel prices. In general, the contradiction in the fundamentals of rebar is continuously accumulating under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and steel prices will continue to be under pressure. Coupled with weak market sentiment, steel prices will continue to seek the bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the change in demand [33]. - Hot-rolled coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. Plate steel mills have increased maintenance, and the output of hot-rolled coil has continued to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 63,000 tons. Supply has dropped to a relatively low level, but the profit per ton of the product is still acceptable, and production will resume in the future. The positive effect needs to be followed up. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coil has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 164,700 tons compared with the previous week, and the high-frequency trading volume also shrinking. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold-rolled products remains at a high level, and the risk of external demand has temporarily eased, so the demand contraction space is limited. However, attention should be paid to the intensification of contradictions in the cold-rolled industry. At present, the supply of hot-rolled coil has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable, and the corresponding demand is weakening. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. Coupled with weakening market sentiment, hot-rolled coil prices are under pressure and running weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [33]. - Iron ore: There are changes in both supply and demand. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The average daily molten iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased again last week. The relatively positive factor is that they are still at a relatively high level this year, but the traditional off-season of the steel market is approaching, and it is difficult to support high molten iron production, so it will continue to decline in the future, and the positive effect on the demand side is weakening. Meanwhile, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has continued to decline, leading to a good reduction in port inventories, but the shipments of overseas miners have increased significantly, reaching the second highest in a single week this year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of Australian ore will increase in the future, and domestic mines are actively producing, so the pressure on ore supply is still relatively large. In general, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and ore prices continue to be under pressure and run weakly. The relatively favorable factor is that the futures price discount is large, so there is resistance to decline. In the short term, under the dominance of bearish factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the decline in molten iron production [34].