Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as the US tariff policy ruling, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different sectors. Different commodities show different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [2][5][8][13][16][38][56] - For most commodities, short - term uncertainties exist, and the market is expected to be volatile. Some commodities may have a downward trend due to supply - demand imbalances, while others may be in a state of shock with limited upward or downward space [4][7][10][15][20][39] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Thursday, A - shares opened higher, with major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 3363.45 points. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged [2][3] - News: The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's global tariffs were illegal. The White House may appeal or invoke new legal provisions [3][4] - Funds: On May 29, A - share trading volume increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan [4] - Operation suggestion: The index is expected to continue to oscillate neutrally after short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose [5] - Funds: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 11.15 billion yuan. The money market was generally stable [6] - News: The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy exceeded his authority, but the implementation of the ruling is uncertain [6] - Operation suggestion: The bond market may oscillate narrowly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and the money market [7] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market situation: Gold and silver prices rose due to the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the re - boosting of risk - aversion sentiment. International gold closed at $3317.87 per ounce, up 0.94%, and silver closed at $33.32 per ounce, up 1.09% [8][10] - News: The US federal court blocked Trump's tariff policy, and the Trump administration appealed. The US economy showed signs of slowdown, and the Fed maintained its stance on monetary policy independence [8][9] - Operation suggestion: Gold can use the virtual - value option double - selling strategy, and silver is recommended to sell relatively virtual - value call options [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot price: As of May 29, the prices of major shipping companies were in a certain range [13] - Index: The SCFIS European Line Index decreased by 1.44% week - on - week, while the US West Line Index increased by 18.90% [13] - Fundamentals: As of May 29, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.6% year - on - year. The PMI data of the eurozone and the US showed certain economic trends [13] - Logic: The futures price rose due to the possible congestion of European ports caused by the US tariff policy, which may lead to tight shipping capacity in August [14] - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate widely between 1800 - 2400 points [15] Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of May 29, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and the market procurement sentiment was general [16] - Macro: The short - term macro environment has little change. The key is the US copper import tariff policy and the US economic fundamentals. The current macro factors do not strongly drive copper prices up [17] - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, but domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to increase in May [18] - Demand: The weekly operating rate of copper rod processing decreased, and the terminal demand may be under pressure in Q3 [19] - Inventory: COMEX copper inventory increased, while domestic inventory decreased slightly [19] - Logic: Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [20] - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [20] Zinc - Spot: On May 29, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was stable, and the market transaction was average [20] - Supply: A zinc mine may stop production in June, but the overall processing fee remains high. The domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase slightly in May [21] - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries were relatively stable, but some enterprises were cautious about terminal export orders [22] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory and LME inventory decreased [22] - Logic: In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - loose cycle. It is recommended to short at high levels and pay attention to zinc ore production and downstream demand changes [23] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [23] Tin - Spot: On May 29, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the market trading was relatively good [23] - Supply: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports in April showed different trends [24] - Demand and inventory: The solder operating rate improved in March, but the overall order situation was average. The inventory showed different changes [25] - Logic: Considering supply recovery and weak demand expectations, it is recommended to hold short positions [26][27] - Operation suggestion: Hold short positions [27] Nickel - Spot: As of May 29, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [27] - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level, with an expected production of 35350 tons in May [27] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was relatively stable, and the demand for stainless steel mills was affected by production adjustments [28] - Inventory: Overseas inventory remained high, while domestic social inventory and bonded area inventory decreased [28] - Logic: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000 [29][30] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [30] Stainless Steel - Spot: As of May 29, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends [30] - Raw materials: The supply of nickel ore was tight, and the price of nickel iron was stable [30][32] - Supply: The domestic stainless steel production in May is expected to decrease slightly, with a decrease in the 300 - series production [30] - Inventory: Social inventory and futures inventory decreased [31] - Logic: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12600 - 13200 [32] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [32] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of May 29, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the market sentiment was pessimistic [33] - Supply: The production in April decreased slightly, but the production in May is expected to increase slightly. The supply pressure remains [34] - Demand: The overall demand is average, and the demand may face pressure in the off - season [34] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly [35] - Logic: The market is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 56000 - 60000 yuan [36][37] - Operation suggestion: The main contract reference range is 56000 - 60000 yuan [37] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rebounded slightly [38] - Supply: The iron element output decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the output of five major steel products increased slightly [38] - Demand: The apparent demand increased slightly, but the domestic demand was in the off - season, and the direct export of steel remained high [39] - Inventory: The steel inventory continued to decrease, while the cold - rolled steel inventory continued to increase [39] - Cost and profit: The profit was stable, with blast furnaces profitable and electric furnaces losing money [39] - Viewpoint: The steel price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, but further decline requires iron ore inventory accumulation [39] Iron Ore - Spot: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased slightly [40] - Futures: The main iron ore contract rose 1.22% to 707 yuan/ton [40] - Basis: The basis of PB powder for the 09 contract was 72.5 yuan/ton [40] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output decreased, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased [40] - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume was relatively low [41] - Inventory: The 45 - port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory was basically stable [41] - Viewpoint: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate between 700 - 745 yuan/ton [41] Coke - Spot and futures: The coke futures continued to decline, and the second round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills was implemented on May 28 [42] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke was 7 yuan/ton [42] - Supply: The total coke output decreased slightly [42] - Demand: The coke demand decreased slightly [43] - Inventory: The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in different sectors [44] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to short the 2509 contract after a rebound and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke [44] Coking Coal - Spot and futures: The coking coal futures continued to decline, and the spot market was bearish [45] - Supply: The production of domestic coking coal decreased slightly, and the inventory increased [45][46] - Demand: The demand for coking coal decreased slightly [46] - Inventory: The total coking coal inventory increased [46] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to short the 2509 contract after a rebound and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [47] Ferrosilicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas were stable [48] - Futures: On May 29, the 07 contract of ferrosilicon decreased by 2.38% to 5322 yuan/ton [48] - Cost and profit: The cost of ferrosilicon production in different regions was different, and some enterprises were in the red [48] - Supply: The output of ferrosilicon is expected to continue to decline [49][50] - Demand: The demand for ferrosilicon decreased, and the non - steel demand was weak [50] - Viewpoint: The price of ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate weakly [50] Manganese Silicon - Spot: The prices in the main production areas decreased slightly [51] - Futures: On May 29, the 09 contract of manganese silicon decreased by 1.36% to 5530 yuan/ton [51] - Cost: The production cost and profit in different regions were different [51] - Manganese ore: The price of manganese ore was under pressure, and the global shipment decreased slightly [51][52][55] - Supply: The output of manganese silicon increased slightly [52] - Demand: The demand for manganese silicon increased slightly, but the iron water output decreased [53][55] - Viewpoint: The price of manganese silicon is expected to oscillate weakly [55] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends, and the trading volume of soybean meal increased [56] - Fundamental news: The global soybean supply is expected to be sufficient, and the inventory will increase significantly [56] - Market outlook: The two - meal market is expected to oscillate, and the soybean meal may face callback risks above 2950 yuan/ton [57][58] Live Pigs - Spot situation: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated slightly [59] - Market data: The breeding profit decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased [59][60] - Market outlook: The pig price is expected to be stable with limited upward and downward space. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [60] Corn - Spot price: The corn prices in different regions were generally stable [61] - Fundamental news: The inventory of corn processing enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of feed enterprises increased [61] - Market outlook: The corn price is expected to oscillate with the shipping rhythm [61]
广发早知道：汇总版-20250530
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-05-30 01:09