5月PMI低位回升的背后

Group 1: PMI Overview - In May, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value of 49.0%, but still in the contraction zone[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from 50.4%[1] - The composite PMI output index increased by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic expansion[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Signals - The production index for manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7%, indicating a return to the expansion zone, with a 0.9 percentage point increase[3] - The new orders index increased by 0.6 percentage points to 49.8%, still in the contraction zone, while the new export orders index rose by 2.8 percentage points[3] - The employment indices for manufacturing, services, and construction showed slight improvements, but employment pressure remains significant[4] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The price indices for raw materials and factory prices both fell by 0.1 percentage points, indicating ongoing downward pressure on prices[4] - The inventory indices for raw materials and finished products changed by 0.4 and -0.8 percentage points respectively, suggesting inventory adjustments in response to improved export conditions[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming months (June-July) are characterized as a "four-period overlap," focusing on U.S.-China tariff negotiations and actual trends in Chinese exports and real estate[7] - Continued emphasis on the need for proactive policy measures to address domestic demand issues, as indicated by the contraction in new orders and declining price indices[6]