Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy for copper continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. - Alumina: Alumina supply increases, spot trading weakens, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity and then fluctuate. If the resumption of production capacity expands further, prices will face more pressure. Currently, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [7][9][11]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Entering June, the market focuses on the US tariff policy. With domestic aluminum ingot inventories at a low level, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [15][18]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The first - day closing price of cast aluminum alloy is near the spot price. In the short term, the far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [20][23]. - Zinc: Domestic zinc supply shows signs of improvement, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate. Profitable short positions should continue to be held, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for arbitrage and options [25][26][27]. - Lead: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [31][33][34]. - Nickel: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. A range - trading strategy can be adopted, with a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and a consideration of a range - selling strategy for options [35][43][44]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel prices break through the shock range and turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [48][51][52]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [55][59][60]. - Industrial Silicon: In June, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are basically balanced, but the industry has high inventory. Short positions can be arranged above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [61][63][64]. - Polysilicon: Short - term polysilicon prices are still weak, and the PS2507 contract can gradually take profit and exit. Reverse spreads can be held for far - month contracts, and a wait - and - see attitude should be taken for options [67][69][70]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [73][75][76]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Market Review: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,880 yuan/ton, up 0.27%. The Shanghai Copper index increased its positions by 11,993 lots to 577,700 lots. Spot copper prices were high, suppressing downstream procurement [2]. - Important Information: A copper smelter in Namibia suspended operations due to a shortage of copper concentrates. In May 2025, the production of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and copper strips decreased to varying degrees [2]. - Logic Analysis: China's May exports slowed down, mainly due to the drag of exports to the US. The LME inventory continued to decline, and the delivery risk increased [2]. - Trading Strategy: LME has a delivery risk, and copper prices may rise in the short term. The borrow strategy continues to be held, and options are on hold [2][5]. Alumina - Market Review: The alumina 2509 contract fell 9 yuan/ton to 2886 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6029 lots. Spot prices in most regions were stable, with a decline in Xinjiang [7]. - Related Information: As of last Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.42 million tons, with an operating capacity of 90.65 million tons. The inventory decreased by 2.9 million tons [8]. - Logic Analysis: The resumption of production capacity and new production capacity led to an increase in alumina supply, and prices are expected to approach the cash cost of high - cost capacity [9][11]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina supply increases, and prices are expected to decline. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Review: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract fell 25 yuan/ton to 19,980 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 8696 lots. Spot prices in major regions declined [15]. - Related Information: In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. On June 10, the inventory of major markets decreased by 0.1 million tons [15][16]. - Trading Logic: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continue. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs has limited impact on absolute prices. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are rapidly decreasing [17][18]. - Trading Strategy: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Review: The cast aluminum alloy was listed today. The AD2511 contract opened at 19,400 yuan/ton and closed at 19,190 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions were stable, with a decline in the southwest [20]. - Related Information: In May 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased year - on - year, and the industry profit gradually narrowed. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [20][21]. - Trading Logic: The raw material supply is tight, and the market is in the off - season. The supply of alloy ingots is sufficient, and the demand is weak [22]. - Trading Strategy: The far - month contract is expected to fluctuate. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23]. Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai Zinc 2507 contract fell 1.27% to 21,845 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 0.79 million lots. Spot trading was weak, and the increase in premiums was limited [25]. - Related Information: As of June 9, the domestic zinc ingot inventory increased. The arrival of goods in Shanghai and Tianjin increased, and downstream consumption weakened [25]. - Logic Analysis: The supply of zinc improves, and downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices are expected to decline as inventories accumulate [26]. - Trading Strategy: Profitable short positions continue to be held. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [27][29]. Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai Lead 2507 contract rose 0.9% to 16,880 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 6808 lots. Spot trading was light [31]. - Related Information: As of June 9, the social inventory of lead ingots increased compared with June 3. A large - scale recycled lead smelter in the northwest postponed its resumption of production [32]. - Logic Analysis: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [33]. - Trading Strategy: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [34][37]. Nickel - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel, NI2507, fell 1300 to 121,390 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 5664 lots. Spot premiums were stable [35][36]. - Related Information: An ITSS nickel - iron plant's 14 furnace resumed production. A Swedish battery manufacturer may stop production. Indonesia revoked the mining licenses of four nickel - mining companies [40][41]. - Logic Analysis: The macro situation is complex, and the supply - demand pattern of nickel is weak [43]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a range - trading strategy, hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and consider a range - selling strategy for options [44][45][46]. Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main contract of stainless steel, SS2507, fell 195 to 12,435 yuan/ton, and positions increased by 43,534 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [48]. - Important Information: Indian stainless - steel enterprises face import pressure and plan to submit an anti - dumping investigation application. A stainless - steel project in Fujian is expected to be completed in mid - August [49][51]. - Logic Analysis: The supply pressure of stainless steel is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The raw material end provides cost support [51]. - Trading Strategy: Stainless steel prices turn weak. Attention should be paid to when NPI reduces production and prices. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [52][53]. Tin - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai Tin, 2507, closed at 263,420 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan/ton or 0.21%. Spot trading was light [55]. - Related Information: Sino - US economic and trade consultations continued. In May, CPI and PPI decreased [57][58]. - Logic Analysis: African tin mines are gradually resuming production, but the supply has not been realized. The demand is in the off - season, and tin prices are driven by macro sentiment [59]. - Trading Strategy: The supply of tin ore has not been realized, and short - term tin prices may have a limited downside. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - Market Review: The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 7415 yuan/ton, up 0.82%. Spot prices were stable, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [61]. - Related Information: Shaanxi plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price policy [62]. - Comprehensive Analysis: In June, the demand for industrial silicon increased, and the supply also increased. The industry inventory was high, and the profit was low [63]. - Strategy: Arrange short positions above 7500 yuan/ton. Hold Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads and hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [64][66]. Polysilicon - Market Review: The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 33,955 yuan/ton, down 0.83%. Spot prices were stable [67]. - Related Information: Zhejiang encourages virtual power plants and user - side energy storage to participate in response [68]. - Comprehensive Analysis: In June, the production of polysilicon increased, and the inventory decreased. Downstream prices were under pressure, and short - term polysilicon prices were weak [69]. - Strategy: Gradually take profit and exit the PS2507 contract below 34,000 yuan/ton. Hold a wait - and - see attitude for options and hold reverse spreads for far - month contracts [69][70]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract of lithium carbonate, 2507, rose 100 to 60,760 yuan/ton, and positions decreased by 7341 lots. Spot prices increased [73]. - Important Information: In May, the sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased [74]. - Logic Analysis: Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory accumulation expectation is strong [75]. - Trading Strategy: Short - sell on rebounds, do not buy at the bottom. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [76][77][78].
银河期货有色金属衍生品日报-20250610
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-10 11:02