大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250613

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The cost side provides support, but there are pressures from new capacity and weak demand [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The situation regarding China-US tariffs has eased, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. It's the off - season for agricultural films, with many factories shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7210 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 93, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.9 million tons (-0.7), showing a neutral situation [4] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With recent cost support, off - season demand for agricultural films, new capacity pressure, and relatively high industrial inventory, the PE market is expected to fluctuate today [4] - Likely Factors: Cost support on the recent cost side [5] - Negative Factors: New capacity launch and weak demand [5] - Main Logic: The game between cost and demand, and tariff policies [5] PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The China - US tariff situation has eased, but the result is uncertain. Crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 181, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.6%, indicating a bullish signal [6] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 million tons (-2.4), showing a neutral situation [6] - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [6] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is long, with a reduction in long positions, indicating a bullish signal [6] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With recent cost support, weak overall demand, and relatively high industrial inventory, the PP market is expected to fluctuate today [6] - Likely Factors: Cost support on the recent cost side [7] - Negative Factors: Weak demand [7] - Main Logic: The game between cost and demand, and tariff policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing year by year [13] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been growing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E [15]