Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.18% on Thursday, closing at 67.53 cents per pound, and CF509 decreased 0.26% to 13,520 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions decreased by 4,767 lots to 541,000 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang rose to 14,702 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index 3128B grade rose to 14,784 yuan per ton. In the international market, the focus is on the macro - level. With U.S. inflation data lower than expected and the U.S. dollar index moving down, U.S. cotton has no obvious support. The U.S. cotton planting progress and budding rate are slightly slower than usual, with the good - quality rate flat and the poor - seedling rate slightly down. In the domestic market, the increase of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has slowed down. The downstream yarn comprehensive operating load has slightly increased, and demand has improved slightly, but the inventory of textile enterprises is accumulating. The raw material inventory of fabric mills is at a low level, and there may be restocking actions. Overall, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the upward movement of cotton prices requires macro - resonance. The short - term upward space of Zhengzhou cotton futures prices may be limited. The view on cotton is "oscillation" [1]. - Sugar: The agricultural ministry expects a slight increase in next season's sugar production. Precipitation in Guangxi since May has alleviated the drought, and rainfall in Yunnan is above normal, which is beneficial for sugarcane growth. In Inner Mongolia, sugar beet sowing was delayed by low temperatures but has recovered. In Xinjiang, sugar beet growth is generally good. The spot price of sugar has been adjusted down. The production increase expectation is still pressuring sugar prices, and the futures price has reached a new low. In the domestic market, the spot price was lowered by 20 yuan per ton, and the group continues the strategy of selling at a reasonable price. With the decline of imported sugar prices and the appearance of import profits, it continues to pressure the market. The terminal continues the strategy of purchasing as needed. The view on sugar is "oscillation - biased weak", and previous short positions can be held, but it is not advisable to chase low prices [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 7 - 9 contract spread is - 230, unchanged from the previous day. The main - contract basis is 1,332, an increase of 88. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,792 yuan per ton, up 90 yuan, and the national spot price is 14,852 yuan per ton, up 68 yuan [2]. - Sugar: The 7 - 9 contract spread is 122, an increase of 11. The main - contract basis is 443, an increase of 1. The Nanning spot price is 6,035 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6,090 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On June 12, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 25 to 10,769, with 364 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are: 14,792 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,914 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,852 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,081 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 54.5, up 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 25.6, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 49.5, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 32.6, up 0.2 [3]. - Sugar: On June 12, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6,035 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan, and the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 6,090 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 to 29,116, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the closing prices, contract spreads, basis, warehouse receipts, and price indices of cotton and sugar futures over different time periods from 2021 - 2025. The data sources are Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][12][14][16]. 4. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin: The director of the resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, specializing in the sugar industry. She has participated in many important projects of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and the China Futures Association, and has won many analyst awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu: A resource - product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has participated in many large - scale projects and won many awards [20]. - Sun Chengzhen: A resource - product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He has participated in relevant Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange projects and won the title of senior analyst in textile products [21].
光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日）-20250613
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-06-13 05:37