GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-06-15 07:22Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Buy" rating for specific stocks, including Xining Steel, Nanjing Steel, Hualing Steel, and Baosteel, among others [8][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the financial attributes of commodities are strengthening, driven by geopolitical tensions and the long-term challenges faced by dominant reserve currencies [2]. - The steel industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability, primarily influenced by supply-side adjustments and the optimization of production capacity [2][7]. - The report highlights a significant increase in steel exports, with a net export of 45.916 million tons in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [4][12]. Supply Analysis - The average daily pig iron production has decreased by 0.2 million tons to 2.415 million tons, indicating a slight decline in long-process production [11]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is reported at 90.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points week-on-week but an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year [3][17]. - Total steel inventory has decreased by 0.7%, with a more pronounced decline in the rate of decrease compared to the previous week [25][27]. Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products has continued to weaken, with rebar consumption down by 4.0% week-on-week [42][43]. - The average weekly transaction volume for construction steel has decreased to 100,000 tons, reflecting a 4.0% decline [44][42]. Price and Profitability - Steel prices are running weakly, with the Myspic comprehensive steel price index at 119.3, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 14.0% year-on-year [71]. - The current spot prices for rebar in Beijing and Shanghai are reported at 3,200 yuan/ton and 3,070 yuan/ton, respectively, with slight fluctuations observed [72][73]. Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Hualing Steel (600782.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.29 yuan for 2024 and a PE ratio of 17.20 [8]. - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.37 yuan for 2024 and a PE ratio of 11.60 [8]. - Baosteel (600019.SH) with a projected EPS of 0.34 yuan for 2024 and a PE ratio of 19.80 [8].