光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250617

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Urea: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Sideways [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] 2. Core Views - Urea: On Monday, the urea futures price continued to rise, with the main 09 contract closing at 1723 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.48%. The spot market also rebounded. From a fundamental perspective, the urea supply remains at a high level, but the daily output decreased by 0.41 tons to 20.33 tons. Demand has improved due to the warming market sentiment, with the spot sales rate in the mainstream areas rising to over 100%. International market disturbances, such as production and operation disruptions in Russia, Egypt, and Iran, and high Indian tender prices, have boosted the domestic market. However, the upside of the futures price is limited, and follow - up attention should be paid to demand, raw material prices, international situations, and market sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: On Monday, the soda ash futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main 09 contract closing at 1174 yuan/ton, a 0.86% increase. The spot market was weak, with prices in some regions dropping by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The supply of soda ash remains high, with the industry's operating rate slightly increasing to 87.73%. Demand is still weak, and there is no new driving force in the supply - demand situation. The futures market is driven by related commodities, but there is no trend - upward driver. It is recommended to treat it with a wide - range sideways thinking at the bottom [1]. - Glass: On Monday, the glass futures price fluctuated widely, with the main 09 contract closing at 980 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.1%. The spot market continued to weaken. The actual supply of glass increased slightly, and the daily melting volume was 15.66 tons. Demand has not improved significantly, with the number of downstream deep - processing orders decreasing by 5% compared to the end of May and 5.48% year - on - year. The glass market has no turning - point driver, and the price will be under long - term pressure due to weak terminal demand [1]. 3. Market Information Summary Urea - On June 16, the urea futures warehouse receipts were 5922, a decrease of 40 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [4]. - On June 16, the daily output of the urea industry was 20.33 tons, a decrease of 0.41 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 2.43 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 88.41%, a 5.76 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year [4]. - On June 16, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions showed an upward trend, with Shandong at 1760 yuan/ton (+50), Henan at 1750 yuan/ton (+30), etc [4]. Soda Ash and Glass - On June 16, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts was 6565, a decrease of 77 from the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 476; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 877, unchanged from the previous trading day [6]. - On June 16, the spot prices of soda ash in some regions decreased, with the light - alkali price in Central China dropping by 20 yuan/ton and the heavy - alkali price in South China dropping by 50 yuan/ton [6]. - On June 16, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 87.73%, up from 86.81% the previous working day [7]. - On June 16, the average price of the float glass market was 1189 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and the daily output was 15.66 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. 4. Chart Analysis The report includes multiple charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, positions, price spreads, and spot price trends of urea, soda ash, and glass futures, as well as the price spreads between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash futures [9][11][12][15][17][19][21] 5. Research Team The research team consists of Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different aspects of resource - product research and have rich experience and many honors [24]