广发早知道：汇总版-20250620

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as international political situations, central bank policies, and seasonal demand changes. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, the stock index is under回调 pressure due to international uncertainties, while the bond market may be affected by central bank operations and cross - quarter factors. Precious metals face "滞涨" due to the difficult loosening of the Fed's monetary policy, and various commodity futures have their own supply - demand and price characteristics [2][8][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: The A - share market declined across the board on Thursday, with all major indexes down. The four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is affected by international news such as the situation in the Middle East and the Fed's interest rate decision. It is recommended to wait and see and observe the basis state of the futures contracts [2][3][6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The money market showed a slight convergence, and the Fed's interest rate decision had an impact on the market. It is recommended to allocate long positions on dips, pay attention to the TS2509 contract positive arbitrage strategy, and consider the curve steepening strategy when the conditions are right [7][8]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market showed "滞涨" due to the Fed's difficult - to - loosen monetary policy. Gold may have a callback risk in the short term, while silver may have an upward space if inflation expectations rise. It is recommended to hold short - call options on gold and pay attention to the impact of the Middle East situation on silver [12][13]. Container Shipping Index - The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract continued to fluctuate. The weak price increase of some airlines in July affected the bullish sentiment on the disk. It is expected that the 08 contract will remain in a volatile market in the short term, with the main operation range of 1900 - 2200 [15][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper market had weak driving forces and narrow - range fluctuations. The macro - economic outlook was weak, but the supply - side raw materials were tight, and the inventory was low. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, with the main reference range of 77000 - 80000 [16][17][20]. - Zinc: The zinc price was in a weak and volatile state. The inventory increased, and the downstream consumption entered the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 21000 - 21500, and the short - term view is weak and volatile [20][22][23]. - Tin: The tin price was in a high - level shock under strong reality. The supply of tin ore was tight, but the demand was expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high levels around 260000 - 265000 based on inventory and import data inflection points [24][26]. - Nickel: The nickel market had a slight rebound, but the fundamentals changed little. The industry was over - supplied, and consumption was sluggish. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 118000 - 124000 [27][29]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless steel market had a small increase at a low level, but the fundamentals remained weak. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to operate weakly, with the main reference range of 12400 - 13000 [30][32][33]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market continued to fluctuate narrowly, and the fundamentals still had pressure. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was difficult to boost in the off - season. It is expected to operate weakly in the short term, with the main reference range of 56000 - 62000 [33][36]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel price was in a weak and volatile state. The basis was weak, and the demand was in the off - season. It is recommended to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options, with hot - rolled coils and rebar respectively paying attention to the pressure at 3150 and 3050 yuan [38][39]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore market had a narrow - range shock. The supply pressure was expected to increase in the off - season, and the iron water output was expected to decline. The 09 contract is considered bearish in the medium - long term, with the price range of 720 - 670 [40][42]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market had a weak and stable operation. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand had some resilience. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 800 - 850 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [42][45]. - Coke: The coke market had a third - round price cut, and there was an expectation of a fourth - round cut. The supply decreased marginally, and the demand was slightly recovered. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract on rebounds around 1380 - 1430 and consider the long - coking coal and short - coke strategy [47][48]. - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron market had a slight rebound, but the supply - demand pattern was loose. The cost was expected to decline, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [49][51]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon market had a bottom - range shock. The supply pressure remained, and the cost was difficult to stabilize. It is recommended to short on rebounds [52][55]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The soybean meal market was oscillating strongly. The US soybean was supported by the rise of US soybean oil, and the domestic soybean meal was supported by the cost of US soybean. It is expected to continue to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about chasing high [56][58]. - Live Pigs: The live pig price was slightly oscillating. The demand was weak due to hot weather, and the supply - demand improvement was not good. The market had no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward drive was also weak [59][60]. - Corn: The corn price was in a high - level shock. The supply was tight in the short term, and the price was strong, but the upward momentum weakened after the price increase. In the long term, the supply - demand gap supported the price increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the wheat market and policy releases [61][62].