高分红增强股东回报，电价风险仍存

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 6.22 RMB based on a 12X PE for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 10.27 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 889 million RMB, a significant increase of 385.2% year-on-year [2]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.30 RMB per share for 2023, with a payout ratio of approximately 73.5%, reflecting a strong commitment to shareholder returns [2]. - The company’s power generation increased by 11.6% in 2023, driven by a robust demand for electricity in Guangdong province, which saw an overall increase of 8.0% in electricity consumption [2]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the company’s thermal power generation was 0.57 RMB per kilowatt-hour, a slight decrease compared to the previous year, indicating potential pricing pressures in the future [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 10.27 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 9.1% compared to 2022 [9]. - Net profit for 2023 was 889 million RMB, with a growth rate of 385.1% [9]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.408 RMB, with projections of 0.433 RMB for 2024 and 0.518 RMB for 2025 [9]. Operational Analysis - The company’s thermal power generation increased by 11.62% in 2023, slightly above the provincial average [2]. - The utilization hours for thermal power reached 5,955 hours, an increase of 620 hours year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the commissioning of additional units at the Luhua Lake Power Plant, which will enhance its overall generation capacity [3]. Market Outlook - The average trading price for electricity in Guangdong is projected to decline to approximately 0.466 RMB per kilowatt-hour in 2024, a decrease of 16.0% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pricing challenges for the company [2]. - The report forecasts net profits of 940 million RMB, 1.13 billion RMB, and 1.42 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, suggesting a positive growth trajectory [3].