高比例分红，火电盈利修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a projected PE of 12.4/10.9/8.6 times for the years 2024-2026 [2]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a recovery in thermal power profitability, supported by a high dividend payout ratio [3]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the company's thermal power units is expected to face downward pressure, with a forecasted average price of 0.55/0.54/0.54 yuan per kilowatt-hour for 2024-2026 [4][14]. - The company’s total electricity generation increased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a total generation of 207 billion kilowatt-hours in 2023 [10]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 10.3 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 890 million yuan, up 385% year-on-year [24]. - The company plans a cash dividend of 0.30 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 73.5% [24]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 910 million yuan, 1.03 billion yuan, and 1.31 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 2.51%, 13.45%, and 26.90% [11]. Business Segments - The thermal power segment is expected to see a revenue growth of 8.2% in 2023, but a decline of 2.0% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 19.5% in 2025 [29]. - The wind power segment is projected to have a revenue decline of 2.3% in 2023, with a slight recovery in subsequent years [29]. - Other business revenues are expected to grow by 42.0% in 2023, stabilizing at 5.0% growth for the following years [28][29]. Market Conditions - The average coal price is currently low, with a forecasted price of 820 yuan per ton, down 11.4% from the beginning of the year [4]. - The annual trading average electricity price in Guangdong for 2024 is expected to decline by 15.9% year-on-year [4].