DAFENG INDUSTRY(603081) 开源证券·2024-04-29 07:00Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance was under pressure due to delayed project deliveries and lower-than-expected construction start rates, leading to a significant decline in revenue and net profit [5] - In 2024Q1, the company's net profit improved significantly, driven by its transformation into content operations and the synergistic development of cultural, sports, and tourism sectors [5] - The company's profitability is expected to gradually improve, supported by the optimization of its main business and the growth of new businesses [5] Business Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue from cultural and sports equipment, digital art technology, rail transit, and cultural tourism operations were 1.387 billion yuan, 230 million yuan, 106 million yuan, and 182 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -36.35%, -42.72%, -32.06%, and +125.74% [6] - The gross profit margins for these businesses were 23.45%, 34.84%, 5.06%, and 27.23%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.66, -2.13, -20.94, and +13.27 percentage points [6] - The company's ToC cultural, sports, and tourism business showed strong growth, with the number of operational venues increasing to 13 in 2023 [6] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue was 1.938 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31.8%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 101 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.8% [5] - In 2024Q1, the company's revenue was 290 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.14%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 34 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.77% [5] - The company's gross profit margin in 2024Q1 was 37%, a year-on-year increase of 10.8 percentage points, reaching a historical high for a single quarter [7] Future Outlook - The company's unfulfilled contract amount as of the end of 2023 was 2.743 billion yuan, and it has won several large-scale cultural, sports, and tourism integration projects in 2024 [7] - The company is expected to benefit from the policy of updating cultural, sports, and tourism equipment, and its project quality is expected to improve further [7] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 186 million yuan, 237 million yuan, and 299 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 83.8%, 27.5%, and 26.2% [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's current P/E ratio is 22.1x, 17.3x, and 13.7x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The company's EPS is forecasted to be 0.45 yuan, 0.58 yuan, and 0.73 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]