市场策略报告：社融仍未好转

Core Views and Outlook - The report indicates that the market has shown a slight upward trend with major indices rising, while specific sectors like TMT have experienced a pullback. The real estate sector has surged following policy adjustments, with significant gains in agriculture, defense, real estate, non-ferrous metals, and coal industries, all exceeding 4% growth [2][4]. - The April social financing data remains weak, with both social financing and M1 showing negative growth. The rolling year-on-year growth rate of social financing is nearing a 21-year low, indicating persistent weak demand in the economy. However, the report suggests that the likelihood of further deterioration is low, and future improvements are more probable [2][4]. - The report maintains that the current market risk is limited, with the overall A-share index still below its October 2023 closing price. The potential for upward movement depends on the recovery speed of corporate earnings and improvements in market liquidity [2][4]. Index and Fund Market Review - The report notes that all three types of equity funds have seen an increase in net value, with ordinary equity funds, mixed equity funds, and flexible allocation funds showing median increases of 2.08%, 2.06%, and 1.46%, respectively. The threshold for the top 50% of public fund net values this year is 1.3% [10][11]. - Northbound capital has seen a net inflow of 4.842 billion yuan, with the food and beverage sector receiving over 4 billion yuan in net inflows. Other sectors such as pharmaceuticals, banking, and machinery have also seen increased investments, while sectors like automotive, media, and electric equipment experienced net outflows [14][15]. Risk Preference and Sector Heat - The report highlights that the sector heat index shows significant interest in sectors such as beauty care, agriculture, and non-bank financials, with scores of 97, 89, and 88, respectively. In contrast, sectors like automobiles and media have seen declines in interest [23]. - The report indicates that the overall market's PE valuation median has risen to 20.3 times, with a historical percentile of 23.3%, while the PB valuation median remains at 1.8 times, with a historical percentile of 13.8% [26]. Important Capital Behavior - The report details that the median PE valuation for major sectors varies, with beauty care at 33.8 times and coal at 9.9 times. The report also notes that the banking sector has a relatively low PE of 5.5 times, indicating potential undervaluation [27]. - The report provides insights into the changes in industry earnings forecasts, with real estate showing a significant increase of 94.74% in EPS forecast for 2024, despite a negative actual EPS for 2023 [28].