Headman(688577) 申万宏源·2024-05-22 11:02Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, projecting net profits for 2024-2026 to be 0.46, 0.63, and 0.85 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 79x, 58x, and 43x for the same years [20][37][186]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading domestic manufacturer of CNC lathes, with a comprehensive product layout and a strong focus on innovation to drive the continuous high-end transformation of its product structure [20][37][186]. - The company has successfully expanded its high-end production capacity through the Shamen base and is enhancing its competitiveness via direct sales and overseas channel development [20][37][186]. - The anticipated mass production of robots is expected to provide new growth opportunities for the company [20][37][186]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has transitioned from producing instrument lathes to popular CNC lathes since 2001, and began producing high-end CNC lathes in 2012, marking its entry into the high-end market [25][49][62]. - The company currently offers four main product categories: high-end CNC lathes, automated production lines, parallel composite processing machines, and popular CNC lathes, with a significant shift towards high-end products in recent years [25][49][62]. Market Potential - The domestic machine tool market is large but lacks strength, with significant potential for domestic substitution in the high-end machine tool market [26][59][75]. - The CNC lathe is widely used in various industries, including automotive, engineering machinery, general equipment, molds, and aerospace, indicating a broad application range [26][88][94]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The Shamen base has successfully commenced production, with plans for an annual output of 900 high-end machine tools, which is expected to drive revenue growth in high-end products [27][160]. - The company has established three major production bases, with a combined annual output value exceeding 900 million yuan, focusing on high-end CNC lathes and automated production lines [160]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew from 333 million yuan in 2017 to 664 million yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 12.2% [25][69]. - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is projected to be 751, 871, and 1,028 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 13.2%, 16.0%, and 18.0% [22][171][175]. Product Development and Innovation - The company emphasizes R&D investment, with a steady increase in R&D expenses, which rose from 3.3% in 2017 to 6.65% in 2024Q1 [102][181]. - The company has developed several new products, including high-precision CNC lathes and parallel composite processing machines, which are now in small-batch production [108][181]. Competitive Positioning - The company’s high-end CNC lathes are positioned to compete with international brands, with technical parameters that are comparable or superior to those of competitors [146][150]. - The company is actively promoting the "import substitution" process in the domestic high-end CNC machine tool market, leveraging its advanced technology and production capabilities [150][186].