Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][5][28] Core Views - The company reported a record high quarterly revenue of $2.382 billion in Q3 2025, exceeding guidance and showing a year-over-year increase of 9.7% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 7.8% [1][2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 22.0%, surpassing the guidance range of 18%-20% [1] - The company expects full-year revenue to exceed $9 billion, with Q4 2025 revenue projected to grow by 0%-2% [1][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 sales revenue reached $2.382 billion, with wafer revenue accounting for 95.2% of total revenue [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was $192 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 28.9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 44.7% [1] - The company’s capital expenditure in Q3 2025 was $2.394 billion, a significant year-over-year increase of 103% [2] Capacity and Utilization - The capacity utilization rate increased to 95.8%, marking a year-over-year rise of 5.4 percentage points [2] - The monthly production capacity of 8-inch wafers surpassed 1 million pieces [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2025, 12-inch wafers contributed 77.0% to wafer revenue, while 8-inch wafers contributed 23.0% [2] - Revenue from industrial and automotive applications saw the highest growth rates, with increases of 66.6% and 21.8% respectively [2] Geographic Revenue Distribution - In Q3 2025, 86.2% of revenue came from China, 10.8% from the United States, and 3.0% from the Eurasian region [2] Earnings Forecast - The report revised the net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to $648 million, $808 million, and $945 million respectively [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6][11] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 1,338.21 billion CNY in 2025, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 271 billion CNY for 2025, 438 billion CNY for 2026, and 525 billion CNY for 2027 [3][11] - The target market value is set at 567.6 billion CNY, corresponding to a target price of 195.39 HKD per share [3][11] - The report highlights the synergy effects from the main platform and food delivery services, indicating a positive growth outlook [10][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,084.66 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 3.67% [5] - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue to 1,338.21 billion CNY by 2025, representing a growth rate of 15.48% [5] - The adjusted net profit for 2023 is estimated at 24.17 billion CNY, with a remarkable year-on-year growth of 132.82% [5] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 14.7% in 2023 to 16.1% by 2027 [5] Business Segment Insights - The company's retail segment is projected to maintain steady growth, with a revenue forecast of 1,154.98 billion CNY for 2024 [12] - The food delivery segment is expected to continue reducing losses, with a revenue increase of 213.7% year-on-year in Q3 [10][11] - The report notes that the collaboration between the main platform and food delivery services has led to a significant increase in traffic and user conversion rates [10][11] Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a 9X PE valuation for the retail and new business segments for 2026, reflecting a competitive market position [3][11] - The company's market capitalization is calculated based on comparable companies, indicating a favorable valuation relative to peers [14]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月15日 京东集团-SW（09618.HK） 优于大市 2025Q3 点评：日百品类和平台业务快速增长，京东外卖亏损 环比小幅减少 本季度收入增长亮眼：本季度公司实现营业收入 2991 亿元，同比+15%， 分拆看，1）本季度京东零售收入 2506 亿元，同比+11%，收入强劲增长 主要受益于日百和市场营销收入加速增长，我们测算自营收入同比 11%， 其中带电品类收入增速 5%，商超品类收入增速 19%；自营增速环比 Q2 23% 的增速显著降低，主要由于国补高基数影响，且 Q3 多地国补额度用完 对带电品类销售带动减弱。本季度平台活跃用户数以及购物频次均实现 40%以上增长，年度活跃用户在 10 月突破 7 亿；2）京东物流收入 521 亿元，同比+15%；3）新业务收入同比+214%，主要由于京东外卖快速增 长导致。 公司利润：non-GAAP 净利润 58 亿元，non-GAAP 净利率 1.9%，与去年同 期相比下降 3.2pct。其中经调 EBITDA 利润率从 5.8%降至 0.8%。分业务 看，零售经营利润率从去年同期 5.2%提升至 5.9%，我们推测主要由于 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The two main business segments are gradually becoming profitable, and significant share buybacks are being conducted to reward shareholders. The company is expected to see substantial incremental growth from its home decoration and rental businesses, which are turning profitable. Despite short-term pressures on the brokerage business due to market cycles, the company maintains a clear alpha compared to the industry. Continuous innovation and AI empowerment are expected to enhance quality and efficiency, leading to greater earnings elasticity as market conditions stabilize [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.1 billion yuan (up 2.1%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 750 million yuan (down 36.0%). Adjusted net profit was 1.29 billion yuan (down 27.8%). For the first three quarters of 2025, these figures were 72.4 billion yuan, 2.9 billion yuan, and 4.5 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +16.1%, -16.8%, and -23.3% [6][10]. Business Segments - The rental revenue has increased significantly, countering the decline in the brokerage segment. The company reported a 45.3% year-on-year increase in rental revenue, with over 660,000 managed properties as of Q3 2025. The brokerage business saw a decline in revenue from existing and new homes, with year-on-year changes of -3.6% and -14.1%, respectively [10]. Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 21.4%, with a gross profit decline of 3.9%. The profitability of the rental business improved significantly, contributing a profit margin of 8.7%. The company has successfully managed expenses, with selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 18.4% [10]. Share Buybacks and Future Outlook - The company executed a share buyback amounting to 281 million USD in Q3 2025, the highest in nearly two years. Cumulatively, 675 million USD has been spent on buybacks in the first three quarters, representing nearly 3% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024. The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.78 billion, 7.62 billion, and 8.33 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24.3, 18.4, and 16.9 [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported a 46% year-on-year increase in integrated supply chain revenue for Q3 2025, indicating a strong expansion into high-value markets [2] - Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached 55.08 billion yuan, a 24.1% increase year-on-year, while adjusted net profit was 2.02 billion yuan, down 21.5% year-on-year [9] - The company is actively expanding its overseas business and enhancing instant retail capabilities, including a partnership with a well-known electric vehicle brand in the Middle East [5] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from other clients amounted to 24.9 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase year-on-year, accounting for 45.3% of total revenue [3] - Revenue from JD Group reached 21.2 billion yuan, a 65.8% increase year-on-year, representing 38.5% of total revenue [3] - External customer revenue was 33.88 billion yuan, a 7.2% increase year-on-year, making up 61.5% of total revenue [3] Operational Highlights - As of September 30, 2025, the company operated over 1,600 warehouses and more than 2,000 cloud warehouses, with a total management area exceeding 34 million square meters [4] - The company successfully launched a dedicated air cargo route from Shenzhen to Singapore, enhancing its logistics network in the Asia-Pacific region [4] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth, with projected adjusted net profits of 8.43 billion yuan, 9.11 billion yuan, and 10 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's revenue has reached a three-year high, although profitability is under pressure due to the expansion of new business segments [2] Financial Performance - The projected revenue for 2024 is 1,158,819 million RMB, with a growth rate of 6.84%. This is expected to increase to 1,228,348 million RMB in 2025, 1,289,765 million RMB in 2026, and 1,341,355 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a gradual decline in growth rates to 4.00% by 2027 [4][6] - Operating profit is forecasted to rise from 39,570 million RMB in 2024 to 44,510 million RMB in 2027, with a significant increase of 36.79% in 2024 [4][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 41,359 million RMB in 2024 to 46,519 million RMB in 2027, with a notable increase of 63.87% in 2024 [4][6] Business Development - The company is focusing on optimizing its revenue structure, enhancing its core retail business, and expanding into new areas such as JD Delivery and logistics [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of the retail business as the core pillar, while also highlighting the potential of new business segments [9] Financial Ratios - The operating profit margin is projected to slightly decline from 3.41% in 2024 to 3.32% in 2027, indicating a gradual decrease in profitability [6] - The net profit margin is also expected to decrease from 3.57% in 2024 to 3.47% in 2027 [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to fluctuate, starting at 9.59 in 2024 and dropping to 7.36 by 2027, suggesting a potential undervaluation over time [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an adjusted target price of 32 USD / 247 HKD [3][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.7 billion RMB for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, aligning with market expectations. The adjusted net profit was 790 million RMB, exceeding the market forecast of 640 million RMB, with an adjusted profit margin of 10.2% [1][3]. - User traffic has accelerated, with Daily Active Users (DAU) growing by 9.3% year-on-year to 117 million and Monthly Active Users (MAU) increasing by 8.0% to 376 million. The average daily user engagement reached a record high of 112 minutes [1]. - Advertising revenue saw a robust growth of 23% year-on-year, driven by improved ad supply and effectiveness. The company anticipates maintaining over 20% growth in advertising revenue for Q4 2025 [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY23, the company is projected to generate revenue of 22.5 billion RMB, increasing to 35.8 billion RMB by FY27. The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive in FY25, reaching 2.5 billion RMB [4][11]. - The operating profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of 5.1 billion RMB in FY23 to a profit of 1.1 billion RMB in FY25 [4][11]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in gross margin, which is expected to rise from 24.2% in FY23 to 38.5% by FY27 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 146 / USD 38, indicating a potential upside of 17% for the Hong Kong stock and 24% for the US stock [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue reached RMB 299.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, surpassing market expectations by 1.6%. However, the growth rate of product revenue significantly slowed to 10.5%, primarily due to a high base effect from last year's government subsidies [1][2]. - Service revenue showed strong performance, growing by 30.8%, driven by substantial increases in advertising and logistics revenue, which grew by 23.7% and 35.0%, respectively [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the impact of the high base will be more pronounced in Q4, potentially leading to further deceleration in growth rates [1]. Financial Summary - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 decreased by 56% to RMB 5.8 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.9%, down from 5.1% in the same period last year. This decline was attributed to a 111% increase in marketing expenses related to food delivery subsidies [2][4]. - The overall gross margin for the company was reported at 16.9%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report projects FY25E revenue at RMB 1,337.7 billion, with an adjusted net profit forecast of RMB 29.8 billion [4][8]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HKD 124.4, with a 52-week range of HKD 114.8 to HKD 180.8, and a total market capitalization of HKD 341.2 billion [5]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 1.87 billion [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forward P/E ratio of 13.2x for FY25E and 8.0x for FY26E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has raised its full-year GAAP net profit guidance to a range of 350-450 million yuan, following a record high net profit of 260 million yuan in Q3 2025, with total net profit for the first three quarters reaching 280 million yuan, achieving its annual profit target one quarter ahead of schedule [1][3]. - The company has secured contracts for the 2026 model year with its top two ADAS clients, ensuring 100% laser radar standardization, which provides high certainty for growth in shipment volumes [2][3]. - The company has made significant progress in the Robotaxi and Robotruck markets, establishing partnerships with several leading autonomous vehicle companies, which include substantial orders valued at tens of millions of dollars [3]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects net profits of 416 million yuan, 697 million yuan in 2026, and 1.189 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.66 yuan, 4.47 yuan, and 7.62 yuan [3][5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 3.128 billion yuan, increasing to 4.752 billion yuan in 2026 and 6.399 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 50.58% and 51.94% respectively [5][12]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 42%, with operating expenses decreasing by 23% year-on-year, showcasing effective cost control through AI technology [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 800 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of 656 HKD [2][4][19]. Core Insights - Tencent's 3Q25 revenue reached 192.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding market expectations by 2%. The adjusted net profit was 70.6 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, also slightly above market forecasts [1][2]. - The growth in international gaming revenue was robust, increasing by 43% year-on-year to 20.8 billion RMB, driven by Supercell games and new studio acquisitions. Domestic gaming revenue also grew by 15% to 42.8 billion RMB, supported by the successful launch of new games [1][2]. - The advertising revenue for 3Q25 was 35.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth, with stable growth in capital expenditures at 12.9 billion RMB [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25E, the projected revenue is 754.4 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit forecast of 271.4 billion RMB, representing a growth rate of 27.6% [4][10]. - The gross margin for 3Q25 was reported at 56.4%, a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points, while the adjusted net profit margin reached a new high of 36.6% [1][2]. - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and profitability, with a projected operating profit of 248.3 billion RMB for FY25E [10].