证券研究报告 中国宏桥 (1378 HK) 港股通 看好公司高盈利与高分红持续 盈利预测与估值 | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 11 月 | 19 日│中国香港 | 基本金属及加工 | 目标价(港币): | 35.22 | 根据 11 月 18 日公告，公司计划以先旧后新方式配售最多 4 亿股股份，每 股配售价 29.2 港元，较前一交易日收市价折让约 9.6%，募资最多 116.8 亿 港元。配售股份占现有已发行股本约 4.2%，占扩大后股本约 4.03%。我们 认为，此次配售有利于公司优化资本结构，为国内、海外项目发展优化提供 良好基础。公司作为铝全球龙头，铝价偏强预期下，我们继续看好公司 26-27 年业绩稳定表现，同时资本结构持续优化，或为公司延续高分红政策提供必 要条件，维持买入评级。 配售资金将用于优化资本结构以及推进国内、海外项目的发展 根据本次公司公告，配售将主要用于发展国内、海外项目，并进一步优化公 司债务结构。截至 25 年年中，公司拥有国内 646 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 89.40 [1][5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 19.45 billion for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 97.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 36.7% [1] - The company achieved a net profit of RMB 150 million in Q3 2025, continuing its trend of profitability [1] - The company is expected to experience a strong new car cycle from 2025 to 2026, with anticipated revenue growth driven by strategic partnerships and overseas expansion [1][4] Summary by Sections Quarterly Performance - In Q3 2025, the company sold 174,000 vehicles, marking a historical high with a month-over-month increase in sales [2] - The sales structure improved, with the B/C platform accounting for 56% and 35% of sales, respectively, while the low-priced T03 model's share decreased to 9% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 14.50%, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 6.40 percentage points, attributed to scale effects and cost management [3] Growth Prospects - The company is set to launch multiple new models in 2026, supporting a sales target of one million units [4] - The overseas market is expanding rapidly, with 38,000 units exported from January to September 2025 and a significant increase in overseas orders [4] - Strategic collaborations are expected to contribute to revenue growth, including partnerships with Stellantis and FAW [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve sales of 640,000, 1,030,000, and 1,416,000 vehicles from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding revenues of RMB 74.5 billion, RMB 128.7 billion, and RMB 170.7 billion [5] - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 11.3 million, RMB 52.4 million, and RMB 82.5 million over the same period [5] - The target price reflects a 20% premium based on the anticipated strong new car cycle and overseas production localization [5]

2025 年 11 月 19 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 固生堂 (2273 HK) 固生堂 (2273 HK) - 开启海外规模化扩张，26 年业绩加速增长 固生堂在近期完成了对新加坡大中堂 100%股权的收购，获得 14 家中医门诊部， 标志着公司进入规模化海外扩张之路。公司计划进一步增加新加坡门店数量，同 时计划进入香港和马来西亚等市场。我们预计 26 年海外市场收入可达 2-3 亿元， 将有效支撑公司整体业绩增长。同时，国内目前政策环境趋稳，预计将更加利好 龙头公司的发展。固生堂在年内的大规模回购和分红凸显管理层对业务发展的信 心。我们认为固生堂将在 26 年重回快速增长轨道，夯实中医服务的龙头地位。 | 财务资料 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (截至 12 月 31 日) | FY23A | FY24A | FY25E | FY26E | FY27E | | 销售收入 (百万人民币) | 2,323 | 3,022 | 3,363 | 4,099 | 5,081 | | 同比增长 (%) | 43.0 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment [12]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the water supply industry, with steady growth in its core water supply business and a first-mover advantage in pipeline drinking water [4][7]. - By FY2025, the company's urban water supply business will serve over 30 million people, while its pipeline drinking water business will serve approximately 12 million [4][7]. - The company has reached a turning point in free cash flow, with expectations for increased dividends in the future [4][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates primarily in urban water supply and pipeline drinking water, with a diversified revenue structure [19][21]. - As of FY2025, the revenue breakdown includes urban water supply (64.3%), environmental protection (13.1%), and other segments [24]. Financial Highlights - The company’s capital expenditure peaked at HKD 51.4 billion in FY2024, decreasing to HKD 32.4 billion in FY2025, leading to a positive free cash flow of HKD 1.50 billion [8][32]. - The dividend payout ratio for FY2025 is projected to be 42.53%, with potential for future increases as free cash flow improves [32]. Water Sector Analysis - The urban water supply and sewage treatment sectors are experiencing stable growth, with a projected CAGR of 0.37% for water supply and 1.2% for sewage treatment from 2025 to 2027 [9][40]. - The company’s operational capacity as of FY2025 includes 730,000 tons/day for water supply and 90,000 tons/day for sewage treatment, with ongoing projects across various provinces [47][49]. Strategic Positioning - The company primarily operates under the Transfer-Own-Operate (TOO) model, which enhances its asset value compared to other models [51]. - The company is expected to benefit from the current round of price adjustments in the water supply sector, with recent increases in basic water prices averaging 21.3% [52].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Yue Yuen International, but it provides insights into the company's performance and management expectations for future quarters [1][7]. Core Insights - Yue Yuen International reported a revenue of USD 6.02 billion for 9M25, a decrease of 1.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of USD 279 million, down 16% year-on-year. For 3Q25, revenue was USD 1.96 billion, down 5% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of sequential decline, with a net profit of USD 110 million, down 27% year-on-year [1][7]. - The management maintains a prudent dividend policy with a payout ratio of around 70% [1][7]. - The manufacturing segment faced pressure on footwear shipment volumes, but an increase in average selling price (ASP) partially offset revenue declines. The ASP for 3Q25 rose by 3.4% year-on-year to USD 21.4 per pair [2][8]. - Management expects retail performance to improve in 4Q25, with continued increases in ASP and gross margin [2][8]. Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - In 3Q25, manufacturing revenue was USD 1.96 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, with footwear manufacturing revenue at USD 1.35 billion, down 2% year-on-year. Footwear shipment volume was approximately 63 million pairs, down 5.3% year-on-year [2][8]. - The gross margin for manufacturing in 3Q25 was 19.4%, up 1.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter but down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to uneven capacity loading and lower utilization rates [2][8]. - Management indicated that current order visibility is about 2-3 months, with some brands showing resilient demand for 1Q26 [2][8]. Retail Business - Pou Sheng recorded revenue of approximately RMB 3.74 billion in 3Q25, down 6.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 33.4% [3][9]. - The company is optimizing its offline network, reducing the number of self-operated stores to 3,338 as of September 2025, a decline of about 28% compared to the end of 2021 [3][9]. - Management expects the 4Q performance to improve, with a focus on new product launches and a lower discounting environment [3][9]. Future Outlook - Management views Indonesia and India as key markets for medium- to long-term expansion, anticipating improvements in manufacturing gross margins starting in 2026 [4][10]. - The overall industry is currently at a trough, with expectations for recovery in 2027 as the company continues to optimize its operations and seize opportunities in lower-tier markets [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company's profitability continues to improve, with exports expected to become a new growth driver [2] - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.68, 2.04, and 2.40 RMB respectively, with a target price set at 22.44 RMB and 24.62 HKD, based on a PE ratio of 11 times for comparable companies in 2026 [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million RMB) is projected to grow from 179,204 in 2023 to 448,685 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5] - Operating profit (in million RMB) is expected to increase from 3,806 in 2023 to 23,173 in 2027, with significant growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is forecasted to rise from 5,308 in 2023 to 24,318 in 2027, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, 2.5%, 20.9%, and 18.0% [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 5.3% [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expected to maintain a strong market share, with sales growth outpacing the industry average, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [10] - The company is accelerating its global expansion, with exports anticipated to become a significant source of revenue and profit growth [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a quarterly revenue of 19.45 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 97.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.7% [7] - The company reported a net profit attributable to equity holders of 150 million yuan in Q3 2025, a significant improvement from a loss of 690 million yuan in Q3 2024 and a profit of 160 million yuan in Q2 2025 [7] - The company’s Q3 sales volume reached 174,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 107.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.6% [7] - The average selling price (ASP) for the company was 112,000 yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 4.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4% [7] - The gross margin for Q3 was 14.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9 percentage points [7] - The company’s sales, management, and R&D expense ratios improved to 4.9%, 3.2%, and 6.2% respectively, compared to the previous year [7] - The company has expanded its sales service network to cover 292 cities with 866 sales outlets as of the end of September 2025 [7] - The company exported 17,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36% [7] - The company plans to launch its Lafa5 model overseas in Q2 2026 and is actively pursuing local production capabilities in Malaysia and Europe [7] Financial Projections - The total revenue forecast for the company is projected to reach 65.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 104.58% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 693.83 million yuan in 2025, with a significant year-on-year increase of 124.60% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.49 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 103.14 [1] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 15% in 2025 [8] - The company’s asset-liability ratio is projected to be 77.45% in 2025 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 12.00 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on research and development of large models, AI-native software, and AI intelligence as its core development direction. The management expects cloud services to maintain a revenue growth of 20% annually, while overall core business revenue is projected to grow by 15% annually [3]. - The company has introduced a new software product, "浪潮海岳 inSuite by DELMIAWorks," aimed at the discrete manufacturing industry, which integrates various core business functions for digital transformation [2]. - The company plans to expand its overseas enterprise service market, starting with SaaS services for Southeast Asian companies next year, which is expected to become a second growth curve for the company [3]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the net profit is projected to be RMB 522 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.6%, and for FY26E, it is expected to reach RMB 624 million, a 19.5% increase. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit from FY25E to FY27E is estimated at 19.1% [3][4]. - The company’s revenue for FY23 was RMB 8,294 million, with a growth rate of 19.1%. For FY24, revenue is expected to decrease slightly to RMB 8,201 million, followed by a recovery to RMB 8,758 million in FY25 [4][8]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 0.457, increasing to RMB 0.546 in FY26E and RMB 0.648 in FY27E [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong revenue growth in FY26H1, with a total revenue of 4.047 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.7% and a half-year increase of 10.8% [5]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic offline ticketing market, with significant IP licensing capabilities, including partnerships with major brands like Sanrio and Chiikawa [12]. - The report highlights the robust growth potential in the live performance and IP sectors, driven by a stable supply of top-tier artists and successful events [6][12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In FY26H1, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 35.7%, with a net profit of 520 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 54.3% [5]. - **Segment Performance**: The live performance and technology segment generated 1.339 billion RMB in revenue, up 14.5% year-over-year, while the IP derivatives segment saw a remarkable 105.2% increase in revenue, reaching 1.16 billion RMB [6][7]. - **Cost Management**: The company has effectively reduced both sales and management expenses, leading to improved operational efficiency [10]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.107 billion RMB in FY2026, with a net profit forecast of 996 million RMB, indicating a significant growth trajectory [11][12]. - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit are 21% and 174% respectively for FY2026, showcasing strong financial health and operational performance [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for Geely Automobile Holdings with a target price of HK$26.60 [2][4][15]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve vehicle deliveries of 3.04 million, 3.52 million, and 3.97 million units for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with NEV penetration rates projected at 57%, 59%, and 66% [4][15]. - The report anticipates a core net profit attributable to shareholders of Rmb16.40 billion, Rmb18.88 billion, and Rmb22.45 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reflecting a growth rate of -1%, 15%, and 19% respectively [4][15]. - The company is expected to fully realize synergies from its consolidation with ZEEKR by 2026, enhancing profitability and operational efficiency [6][18]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Geely reported revenue of Rmb89.19 billion, a 27% year-on-year increase, while cumulative revenue for the first nine months reached Rmb239.48 billion, up 26% year-on-year [5][16]. - The core net profit for Q3 2025 was Rmb3.96 billion, a 19% increase year-on-year, with a total of Rmb10.62 billion for the first nine months, marking a 59% year-on-year growth [6][17]. - The company maintained a strong cash position with Rmb56.22 billion in cash at the end of September 2025, representing a 31% year-on-year increase [5][16]. Market Position and Strategy - Geely is positioned to achieve its 2025 sales target comfortably, with expectations of 3.04 million units sold, while ZEEKR's overseas sales are projected to grow by 50% to 80% [18][19]. - The report highlights that the company retains strategic advantages in NEV rollout, export expansion, and brand-mix upgrading, which are expected to support continued market share gains in a moderately growing industry [19].