证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 01 月 21 日 颐海国际（01579.HK） 业绩提速股息可观，重视关联方积极变化 消费品/食品饮料 公司核心看点在于业绩改善+高股息，此前公司关联方业务价格不断下调制约业 绩的同时影响公司估值，目前看这一阻力有望得到改善，同时第三方业务在海 外及 B 端业务快速发展下有望延续双位数的增长。公司 23 年开始持续开启高 分红，未来看预计分红率保持较高水平。我们预计 25-26 年 EPS 分别为 0.81、 0.88 元，对应 26 年估值 15X，25-26 年股息率均有望超过 6%，我们看好餐饮 复苏+关联方改善下，公司业绩上修带动估值中枢上移，26 年目标估值 22X， 对应股价 21.5 港元，空间 44%，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：21.5 港元 当前股价：14.9 港元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1037 | | --- | --- | | 香港股（百万股） | 1037 | | 总市值（十亿港元） | 15.4 | | 香港股市值（十亿港元） | 15.4 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 4.3 | | ROE ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 21 年 月 日 安踏体育（02020.HK） 2025 年公司经营稳健，关注长期多品牌表现 其他品牌：流水保持高速增长，集团多品牌孵化以及运营能力卓越。2025Q4 其他 品牌流水增速为 35%~40%，长期来看，我们判断迪桑特和可隆在高端户外领域 已经逐步建立起强劲的品牌力，面对国内户外运动赛道的持续快速增长迪桑特和 可隆市占率有望稳步提升。我们判断 Maia Active 目前各项调整顺利，预计 2025Q4 也有优异的增长表现。 资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 注：股价为 2026 年 1 月 20 日收盘价 事件：安踏体育发布 2025Q4 经营情况公告，安踏品牌流水同比下降低单位数（（ 年增长低单位数），Fila 品牌流水同比增长中单位数（ 年增长中单位数），其他 品牌流水同比增长 35%~40%（ 年增长 45%~50%），整体表现符合预期。 2025 年我们预计公司归母净利润 132 亿元左右，展望 2026 年我们预计公司收 入增长 10%+，归母净利率或有小幅下降。基于 年的经营表现，我们预计公司 2025 年营收增 ...

2025 年公司经营稳健，关注长期多品牌表现 事件：安踏体育发布 2025Q4 经营情况公告，安踏品牌流水同比下降低单位数（（ 年增长低单位数），Fila 品牌流水同比增长中单位数（ 年增长中单位数），其他 品牌流水同比增长 35%~40%（ 年增长 45%~50%），整体表现符合预期。 安踏品牌：短期消费环境波动叠加春节滞后等因素，Q4 安踏流水波动，库存质量 预计仍然健康。2025Q4 安踏品牌流水同比下降低单位数，我们判断 Q4 安踏流水 波动一方面原因系 Q4 国内消费环境较弱，另一方面原因系 2026 年春节较晚导致 了年货消费滞后。分渠道来看，我们判断电商销售或略有增长，延续 2025 年前三 季度的表现；线下渠道中我们判断童装销售压力对比成人或较大，主要原因系童 装销售的假期属性更强。营运方面，我们预计截至 2025Q4 末安踏品牌库销比略 高于 5，整体处于健康水平。 展望 2026 年：我们判断电商业务销售对比 2025 年或有望改善，同时线下渠道持 续推进差异化门店建设（包括安踏冠军店、灯塔店等），产品端继续发力 PG7 系列 产品、马赫系列以及竞速 C 系列，多举措下有望提振安踏品牌表现 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International (00152) [2] Core Views - Shenzhen International is controlled by the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and holds quality assets in the Greater Bay Area [8] - The logistics business serves as a solid foundation, with REITs spin-offs and logistics park upgrades opening up profit elasticity [8] - The toll road and port businesses provide stable profit contributions, with a central profit contribution of approximately HKD 1.1 billion [18] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Control and Asset Management - Shenzhen International is a state-owned enterprise under the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on urban support development and operations [13][14] 2. Logistics Business Development - The logistics business is centered around logistics parks, with an operational area of 6.71 million square meters as of H1 2025, and a compound annual growth rate of 24.07% from 2014 to 2024 [23][24] - The company has completed the REITs spin-off for five projects, contributing a total of HKD 14.2 billion to net profit as of H1 2025 [8][38] - The logistics park projects are expected to generate significant land appreciation and development profits, with projected after-tax returns of HKD 136.5 billion from the South China logistics park project [60][62] 3. Toll Road and Port Business - The toll road and port operations are managed by subsidiaries, contributing a stable profit base with a net profit of HKD 4.9 billion in H1 2025 [65] - The company holds approximately 47.3% equity in Shenzhen Expressway, which operates 16 toll road projects with a total toll mileage of 613 kilometers [66] 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 17.06 billion, HKD 17.61 billion, and HKD 18.75 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 3.17 billion, HKD 3.47 billion, and HKD 3.53 billion [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for ANTA Sports [2][5] Core Insights - ANTA Brand experienced its first low-single-digit negative sell-through growth in 4Q25 after 11 consecutive quarters of positive growth, primarily due to offline sales decline and challenges in the children's category, although it still achieved a full-year low-single-digit growth target [3][10] - FILA Brand achieved mid-single-digit sell-through growth in both 4Q25 and for the full year 2025, with increased discounts and a stock-to-sales ratio slightly above 5x [3][10] - Management is cautious about 2026, planning increased investments in brand and marketing due to significant sporting events such as the Milan Winter Olympics, World Cup, and Asian Games [3][10] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for ANTA Sports from 2025 to 2027 are RMB 78.26 billion, RMB 85.00 billion, and RMB 92.04 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 10.5%, 8.6%, and 8.3% respectively [5][12] - Net profit attributable to parent shareholders is expected to be RMB 12.98 billion, RMB 14.34 billion, and RMB 16.24 billion for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -13.1%, 14.6%, and 13.8% respectively [5][12] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 16.0x, 14.5x, and 12.8x [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports [6] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Anta's retail performance showed resilience despite a weak market, with Anta brand and Fila brand revenues experiencing low single-digit and mid-single-digit growth respectively, while other brands saw a growth of 35-40% [1][2] - The company continues to advance its multi-brand strategy and global expansion, launching innovative products and entering new markets, including a three-year plan for Southeast Asia and partnerships in Europe [3][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Performance - In Q4 2025, Anta brand revenue declined slightly, while Fila brand revenue improved to mid-single-digit growth, and other brands grew by 35-40% [1][2] - For the full year, Anta brand and Fila brand revenues grew low single-digit and mid-single-digit respectively, while other brands achieved a growth of 45-50%, leading to a double-digit overall revenue growth for the year [1] Multi-Brand Strategy - Anta Sports is recognized as a leading multi-brand sports group, with clear brand positioning and steady expansion [3] - The company launched several innovative products and technologies in 2025, including a fluorine-free fabric and an AI innovation platform [3] Global Expansion - Anta is focusing on expanding its main brand overseas, with plans for a thousand stores in Southeast Asia and initiatives in Europe and the Middle East [3][4] - The Fila brand has initiated a three-year partnership in tennis, enhancing its professional sports image [3] Financial Projections - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027 down by 1%-3% due to short-term uncertainties, projecting EPS of 4.69, 5.10, and 5.67 RMB for 2025-2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16, 14, and 13 [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, YuRan Dairy [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in China's dairy industry, with both a strong market position and undervalued stock, benefiting from the upward cycle of beef cattle and the reversal of raw milk prices, which is expected to lead to high returns from cattle disposal and significant growth in raw milk production [1][2] - The raw milk price is nearing a turning point, with a projected decline in dairy cow inventory by 8% from the end of 2023 to October 2025, which is expected to support a moderate increase in milk prices [1] - The company has established the largest modern dairy farm network in China, operating 100 farms across 17 provinces, with a dairy cow inventory of 620,000 heads and a raw milk production of 2.08 million tons in the first half of 2025, leading the industry [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - YuRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy market, covering the entire industry chain from breeding to raw milk production, and is committed to high-quality development and sustainable practices [17] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with a significant stake held by Yili Group, which also serves as a core customer, ensuring a deep business relationship [22] 2. Beef Cattle Market - The beef cattle market is expected to experience a structural shortage due to a decline in breeding cows, which will support long-term price increases [2][47] - The company is projected to benefit from the rising prices of calves and breeding cattle, with expected revenue growth from cattle disposal of 72% in 2025 [2] 3. Raw Milk Market - The raw milk business is expected to see significant growth, with sales projected to exceed 4 million tons by 2025, benefiting from cost reductions and efficiency improvements [1][3] - The company has a strong sales relationship with Yili, with 94.8% of its raw milk sales going to Yili at a price significantly higher than the industry average [1] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 200.96 billion yuan in 2024 to 258.98 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit projected to increase from a loss of 691 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 4.01 billion yuan in 2027 [11][9] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease significantly, indicating a potential for valuation improvement [9] 5. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the dairy and beef markets, with a turning point expected in the raw milk cycle and a long-term upward trend in beef prices due to structural supply issues [1][68] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these market dynamics, with a robust operational framework and strategic partnerships [1][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" with a target price not specified [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Anta's main brand experienced a slight decline in revenue in Q4 2025, while FILA and other brands showed varying growth rates [2][3] - The company plans to open a total of 7,000-7,100 Anta stores, 2,600-2,700 Anta Children stores, and 2,100-2,200 FILA stores by the end of 2025 [4] - The report maintains revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with expected revenues of 770 billion, 859 billion, and 960 billion respectively, and net profits of 138.74 billion, 159.07 billion, and 178.76 billion [4] Summary by Sections Event Overview - In Q4 2025, Anta's main brand and FILA experienced low single-digit negative growth, while other brands saw mid-single-digit positive growth [2] Analysis and Judgment - Anta's brand saw a decline in Q4 2025 due to delayed Spring Festival affecting children's sales, while FILA's revenue showed mid-single-digit growth [3] - Other brands like Descente, KOLON, and MAIA experienced growth rates of 35-40%, which is a slowdown compared to previous quarters [3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term outlook suggests pressure on Anta's children's segment and e-commerce, but a potential recovery in 2026 for the main brand [4] - Mid-term growth is expected for KOLON and DESCENTE due to favorable outdoor market conditions [4] - Long-term growth drivers include brands like Jack Wolfski, MUSINS, and MAYA ACTIVE [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 770.45 billion, 859.48 billion, and 959.63 billion respectively, with net profit forecasts of 138.74 billion, 159.07 billion, and 178.76 billion [6][9] - The report maintains EPS forecasts of 4.94, 5.67, and 6.37 for the respective years [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, YuRan Dairy [5] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in China's dairy industry, with both a strong market position and undervalued stock, benefiting from the upward cycle of beef cattle and the reversal of raw milk prices, which is expected to lead to high returns from cattle disposal and significant growth in raw milk production [1][2] - The raw milk price is nearing a turning point, with current prices at the bottom of the cycle, and a projected decline in dairy cow inventory by 8% by October 2025 compared to the end of 2023, which will support a moderate increase in milk prices [1] - The company has established the largest modern dairy farm network in China, operating 100 farms across 17 provinces, with a dairy cow inventory of 620,000 heads and a raw milk production of 2.08 million tons in the first half of 2025, ranking first in the country [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - YuRan Dairy is a leader in the upstream dairy market in China, covering the entire industry chain from breeding to raw milk production, and is committed to high-quality development and sustainable practices [17] - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with Yili Group as the largest shareholder, holding 33.93% of the shares, which strengthens the business relationship and sales advantages [22] 2. Beef Cattle Market - The beef cattle market is expected to experience a structural shortage, supporting long-term price increases due to a significant reduction in inventory and a weak replenishment of breeding cows [2][38] - The company is projected to benefit from the rising prices of calves and breeding cattle, with expected revenue growth from cattle disposal of 72% in 2025, 25% in 2026, and 34% in 2027 [2] 3. Raw Milk Market - The raw milk business is expected to have high growth elasticity, with a projected sales volume exceeding 4 million tons by 2025, benefiting from cost reduction and efficiency improvements [1][3] - The company’s raw milk sales to Yili accounted for 94.8% of its total raw milk revenue, with a selling price of 3.87 yuan/kg, which is 25.6% higher than the industry average [1] 4. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of 215.89 billion yuan in 2025, 234.86 billion yuan in 2026, and 258.98 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 7.43%, 8.78%, and 10.27% respectively [9] - The net profit is projected to recover significantly, with estimates of 9.71 billion yuan in 2025, 20.37 billion yuan in 2026, and 40.10 billion yuan in 2027, corresponding to growth rates of 240.60%, 109.67%, and 96.88% respectively [9][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen International (00152) [2] Core Views - Shenzhen International is controlled by the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and holds quality assets in the Greater Bay Area [8] - The logistics business serves as a solid foundation, with REITs spin-offs and logistics park upgrades opening up profit elasticity [8] - The toll road and port businesses provide stable profit contributions, with a central profit contribution of approximately HKD 1.1 billion [18] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Control and Asset Management - Shenzhen International is a state-owned enterprise under the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on urban support development and operations [13][14] 2. Logistics Business Development - The logistics business is centered around logistics parks, with an operational area of 6.71 million square meters as of H1 2025, and a compound annual growth rate of 24.07% from 2014 to 2024 [23][24] - The company has completed the REITs spin-off for five projects, contributing a total of HKD 14.2 billion to net profit as of H1 2025 [8][38] - The logistics park projects are expected to generate significant land appreciation and development profits, with projected after-tax returns of HKD 136.5 billion from the South China logistics park project [60][62] 3. Toll Road and Port Business - The toll road and port operations are managed by subsidiaries, contributing a stable profit base with a net profit of HKD 4.9 billion in H1 2025 [65] - The company holds approximately 47.3% equity in Shenzhen Expressway, which operates 16 toll road projects with a total toll mileage of 613 kilometers [66] 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HKD 17.06 billion, HKD 17.61 billion, and HKD 18.75 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 3.17 billion, HKD 3.47 billion, and HKD 3.53 billion [6][8]