证券研究报告·海外公司深度·软件服务(HS) 黑芝麻智能（02533.HK） 国内智驾芯片新势力，蓄力后起重塑竞争格 局 2024 年 12 月 16 日 买入（首次） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|------------|------------|--------|------------|------------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | | 165.76 | 312.39 | 554.51 | 1,210.44 | 1,921.01 | | 同比 (%) | | 173.96 | 88.46 | 77.50 | 118.29 | 58.70 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | | (2,753.94) | (4,855.12) | 263.09 | (1,346.96) | (1,063.83) | | 同比 (%) | | (16 ...

新秀丽(1910.HK) 稳坐行业龙头，受益国际旅游复苏 西南证券研究发展中心 社服研究团队 2024年12月 核 心 观 点 1 基本面：公司是全球领先的旅行箱公司龙头，品牌矩阵完善、产品力强。1）市占率领先，营收业绩高弹性 修复。公司作为国际旅行箱包企业龙头，市场份额全球领先，据中国报告大厅数据统计，新秀丽集团包括旗 下多品牌占全球旅行箱市场18%份额，龙头地位稳固。疫情后公司营收业绩快速反弹，20-23年营收CAGR 为33.7%，23年营收和归母净利润均已超过19年水平。2）亚洲地区营收超越北美，中国拉动整体增速。23 年亚洲地区营收14.3亿美元首次超越北美成为最大的营收贡献来源，且增速达到55.8%远超其他地区，其中 中国地区增长78.7%为亚洲地区增速最快的国家，拉动整体区域营收增速。3）核心品牌均实现双位数增长 ，高端品牌增速领先。23年公司三大核心品牌Samsonite、Tumi、American Tourister均实现双位数增长 ，且增速超过20%。其中高端品牌Tumi增速最快，同比+34.3%，占比24%，高端产品需求的回升带动公司 整体盈利能力提升，23年毛利率+3.6pp。 旅行箱 ...

IEF 2024年12月16日 MINISO 9896 HK 市场之捕 打开成长宫 分析师。 ■ 星子 ■ 公司主要定位于自有品牌生活家居产品市场和潮 流玩具市场，捕捉双市场之高增长。 名创优品根据市场环境因地制宜采用三种门店运 营模式，以实现快速扩张。展望未来，我们预期 合伙人模式持续扩张；下沉市场和海外市场仍以 代理模式为主；但直营模式的海外门店数量有望 提升。 L 名创优品的产品定位和多元化门店经营模式赢得 市场好评，预计未来在中国市场的收入将继续保 持双位数增长。TOP TOY品牌也在悦己消费趋 势下实现良好增长。海外市场方面，公司加速布 局，未来有望继续维持高双位数增速。 交银国际研究 首次覆盖 收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 46.80 港元 60.00 +28.2% 消费 2024 年 12 月 16 日 名创优品 (9896 HK) 双市场之捕捉者；出海打开成长空间；首予买入 捕捉双市场之高增长。公司主要定位于自有品牌生活家居产品市场和潮流 玩具市场。其中，自有品牌综合零售通过名创优品品牌贡献了最大的收入。 该市场竞争格局分散，全球市场规模在未来三年预计以双位数的复合增速 增至 868 亿美元 ...

来源: 公司资料, 第一上海预测 来源: 彭博 香港交易所（388） 更新报告 业绩稳健，现货市场及沪深港通交易量激增 2024 年前三季度收入及利润为历来第二高：2024 年前三季度公司实现收入 及其他收益 159.9 亿港元（YoY+2%）, 其中主要业务收入上升 1%，主要由于 现货、衍生产品及商品市场成交量上升，使交易及结算费增加，以及 LME 收 费增加，但保证金的投资收益净额减少已抵销部分升幅。归母净利润 92.7 亿 港元，较去年同期上升 500 万港元，主要受现货、衍生品及商品市场成交量上 升，推动交易及结算费增加。从各业务板块来看，交易费及交易系统使用费/ 结算及交收费/联交所上市费/存托管及代理人服务费/市场数据费/其他收入在 2024 年前三季度收入分别达 49.8/31.8/10.8/8.9/8.1/12.6 亿港元，同比变 化分别为+6%/+7%/-6%/-1%/-2%/+8%。公司基本每股盈利为 7.3 港元。集团惯 例是仅宣派半年度及全年度股息，2024 年第三季并不拟派息。 互联互通成交持续活跃：2024 年前三季度现货市场收入为 63.5 亿港元，较 2023 年前三季度的 ...

中软国际（354） 更新报告 公司持续回购研发，云智能业务稳定增长 2024 年持续回购：2024H1 年公司实现收入 79.26 亿元，同比下降 6.2%；主要来自核心大客户业务业务需求减少所致。其中云智能业务收 入 33.68 亿，同比增长 2%；归母净利润 2.86 亿元，同比下降 18.6%。毛 利率同比下降至 23。1%，主要由宏观因素导致大客户定价业务所致。自 2023 到 2024 年期间，公司持续进行了多次股份回购，累计回购并注销 了近 2.6 亿股股票，展示了公司对自身长期发展的坚定信念与信心。 AIGC 驱动布局全栈场景服务：公司锚定成为全方位 AI 软件与服务供 应商的目标，全力加速前行，深度嵌入金融、电力、能源、钢铁及医药 等多元行业头部客户的业务核心，缔结紧密且深远的合作关系。模型工 厂领域，公司精准锁定 AI 咨询规划为突破口，高屋建瓴地切入顶层设 计架构，深度挖掘自然语言处理（NLP）、计算机视觉（CV）及预测应用 的无限潜能，通过创新实践持续注入澎湃动能，塑造行业领先的模型解 决方案，为客户业务的智能化转型筑牢根基。 云智能业务稳定增长：24H1 云智能业务营收 33.68 亿 ...

力》 2024-09-13 2、《名创优品（09896.HK）：增长势能强劲，盈利能力 优异》 2024-05-21 3、《名创优品（09896.HK）：海外增速亮眼，毛利率再 创新高》 2024-03-18 证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2024 12 15 年 月 日 名创优品（09896.HK） 海外业务维持高增，永辉交易稳步推进 事件：11 月 29 日，公司发布 2024Q3 业绩，公司 2024Q1-3 实现营收 122.81 亿元/同比+22.8%，经调整净利润达 19.28 亿元/同比+13.7%，剔除汇兑损益 经调整净利润同比+18.3%。2024Q3 实现营收 45.23 亿元/同比+19.3%，经 调整净利润 6.86 亿元/同比+6.9%。 国内：同店由于基数原因承压，门店扩张符合预期。1）国内 MINISO：2024Q3 国内 MINISO 门店净增 135 家/增量环比+54 家，至期末门店数量达 4250 家/ 同比+448 家，门店稳步扩张；1-9 月同店销售同比下降中单位数（1-6 月公司 同店下降 1.7%），单 Q3 表观单店收入同比-6.4%，Q ...

and with and the mail on the seem of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the seems of the station of the station of the seem and t 报 外 告 海 | --- | --- | |----------------------|------------| | | | | 日期 | 2024-12-10 | | 收盘价（港元） | 153.30 | | 总股本（亿股） | 31.83 | | | | | 流通股本（亿股） | 28.60 | | 归母净资产（亿元） | 2,290.82 | | 总资产（亿元） | 6,435.59 | | 每股归母净资产（元） | 80.09 | hongjiajun@xyzq.com.cn SFC：BPL829 SAC：S0190519080002 zhouluyun@xyzq.com.cn SAC：S0190522070002 请注意：周路昀并非香港证券及期货 事务监 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing improved profitability in renewable energy and future transformation prospects [1] Core Views - The company's wind power generation increased significantly in 2H24, with a 26.3% YoY growth in 3Q24 and a 52.6% YoY surge in September 2024 [2] - The report raises the 2024E wind power generation forecast by 3.3% to 43.2 billion kWh, driven by improved wind conditions and new grid-connected wind power installations [2] - Renewable energy net profit margin is expected to increase by 3.4 percentage points to 38% in 2024E, leading to a 9.2% upward revision of renewable energy attributable net profit to 9.18 billion yuan [2] - The company completed a share placement of 198.5 million shares, increasing total shares by 4.1% to 5.00894 billion shares [3] - The report adjusts 2024-26E renewable energy attributable net profit forecasts by +9.2%/+3.9%/-9.0%, reflecting changes in new energy installation targets and power price expectations [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to decline by 1.24% in 2024E but grow by 8.07% and 8.50% in 2025E and 2026E respectively [6] - Attributable net profit is expected to increase by 34.49% in 2024E, reaching 14.798 billion HKD [6] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 2.95 HKD in 2024E to 3.53 HKD in 2026E [6] - ROE is projected to remain above 16% from 2024E to 2026E [6] - The target price is set at 30.69 HKD, representing a 63.4% upside from the current price of 18.78 HKD [4][8] Valuation - The report values the company's thermal power and renewable energy segments at 0.9x and 18x 2025E PB/PE respectively [4] - The target market capitalization is set at 153.708 billion HKD, with a 25% discount reflecting potential impacts of new energy spin-off [4] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 6.36x in 2024E to 5.32x in 2026E [6] Operational Highlights - Cumulative wind power generation for Jan-Oct 2024 reached 35.8 billion kWh, a 13.7% YoY increase [2] - The company's new energy impairment in 2023 was significant at 1.643 billion yuan, but the government is actively addressing renewable energy subsidy receivables [2] - The share issuance to Huarong Group's subsidiary was approved with a 94.6% voting rate, expected to dilute EPS by 7.08% initially [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Power (2380 HK) with a target price of HKD 3.92 [1] Core Views - China Power is a comprehensive clean energy platform under the State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) with a TTM dividend yield of 6.42% and a PB (MRQ) of 0.64x, indicating significant valuation appeal [1] - The company plans to use its 63% stake in Wuling Power and 64.93% stake in Changzhou Hydropower as consideration to subscribe for new shares in Yuanda Environmental, which is expected to reduce the debt-to-asset ratio and potentially enhance valuation through A-share hydropower assets [1][3] - In 1H24, China Power's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53% YoY to RMB 2.57 billion, driven by strong performance in clean energy [1] Operational Performance - In 3Q24, coal-fired power sales increased by 4.6% YoY to 15.7 billion kWh, accelerating from 0.4% growth in 1H24, due to increased coal power output during peak summer demand [2] - Wind and solar power sales in October 2024 grew by 39.9% and 12.8% YoY, respectively, though the growth rate slowed compared to the 59.4% and 90.8% increases in 1-9M24, primarily due to a high base effect from the 7.5GW clean energy assets injected in October 2023 [2] Strategic Initiatives - The proposed red-chip control of A-share hydropower platform Yuanda Environmental is expected to accelerate China Power's energy transition goals and facilitate the injection of high-quality projects from SPIC [3] - Despite market concerns over the dilution of China Power's stake in hydropower assets, the company anticipates faster growth in asset and profit scale post-restructuring [3] Financial Forecasts - The report revises down China Power's new clean energy capacity additions by 33%, 9%, and 0% for 2024-2026, and adjusts wind and solar power tariffs, leading to a reduction in net profit attributable to shareholders by 2%, 8%, and 14% to RMB 5.0 billion, RMB 5.6 billion, and RMB 6.2 billion, respectively [4] - Based on 2025E forecasts, the target market capitalization is RMB 44.8 billion (HKD 48.5 billion), with a target price of HKD 3.92, derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach [4] Valuation Metrics - The report provides detailed valuation metrics for China Power, including PE, PB, and EV/EBITDA ratios, with 2025E PE/PB for new energy, thermal power, and hydropower at 10x, 0.5x, and 1.2x, respectively [4][6] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 9.00% in 2024E to 10.05% in 2026E, reflecting stronger profitability [6] Industry Comparison - Comparable company valuations for thermal power, hydropower, and new energy sectors are provided, with average 2025E PB ratios of 0.80x, 2.6x, and 6x, respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected adjusted PE of 15/13/11 times for 2024-2026 [1][61] Core Views - The company's 24Q3 revenue reached RMB 4.991 billion, a 51% YoY increase, exceeding guidance, with adjusted net profit of RMB 910 million, up 46.6% YoY [1] - Core OTA revenue grew 22% YoY to RMB 4.013 billion, with a significant improvement in profitability, as the core OTA margin increased by 5.9 ppts YoY to 31.3% [1] - The company's user value has improved significantly, with ARPU growing 53% YoY to RMB 70, and GMV monetization rate increasing by 2.2 ppts YoY to 6.9% [1][56] - The company is accelerating its expansion into new traffic sources and international business, with the launch of the HopeGoo platform and the establishment of an overseas headquarters in Singapore [1][59] Business Performance Summary Core OTA Business - Accommodation booking revenue grew 22% YoY to RMB 1.38 billion in 24Q3, contributing 34.3% of OTA revenue, driven by increased room nights and improved net take rate [36][40] - Transportation ticketing revenue increased 21% YoY to RMB 2.03 billion, contributing 50.5% of OTA revenue, supported by growth in air ticket sales and improved monetization of train tickets [40][41] - Other OTA business revenue grew 24% YoY to RMB 610 million, mainly driven by hotel management and online travel business growth [41] Vacation Business - Vacation business revenue reached RMB 979 million in 24Q3, up 36% QoQ, achieving a break-even with a 2.4% profit margin [1][42] - The company has expanded its offline store network to over 900 stores by the end of 24Q3 [42] Profitability - The company's adjusted net profit margin improved by 2.7 ppts QoQ to 18.2% in 24Q3, driven by optimized user subsidies, improved international business efficiency, and reduced sales expenses [1][47] - Sales expense ratio decreased by 9.1 ppts YoY and 6.0 ppts QoQ to 29.4% in 24Q3 [1][47] User Metrics and Traffic Expansion - Average monthly paying users reached 46.4 million in 24Q3, up 5% YoY, with user purchase frequency exceeding 8 times per year, compared to 5.5 times in 2019 [1][56] - The company's app DAU surpassed 3 million before the 2024 National Day holiday, a record high, with app traffic contribution increasing from 4% to 8% between August 2023 and August 2024 [1][57] International Business Expansion - The company launched the HopeGoo international travel booking platform in mid-2024, covering six major travel categories and supporting 16 currencies [59] - Through the Yilong Hotel Technology platform, the company has expanded its international guest reception capabilities, with over 400 hotels capable of serving international guests as of July 2024 [59] Future Outlook - Core OTA revenue is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 24Q4, driven by strong performance in accommodation and transportation bookings [1][60] - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 17.263 billion, RMB 20.195 billion, and RMB 23.134 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 2.74 billion, RMB 3.252 billion, and RMB 3.872 billion [1][61]