Charles Zhuang 庄怀超 SFC CE: BTE209 微信: zhuangcharles; 电话: (852) 9748 7114; 17 Nov 2025 环球富盛理财有限公司 长江基建 CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038.HK) 业务表现稳健，新规管期项目回报率预期提升 Stable business performance & Expected increase in project return rate during the new regulatory period 最新动态 动向解读 ➢ 盈利预测。我们给予公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 85.97 亿元、89.38 亿元、92.69 亿元。结合可比公司估值，考虑 到公司为全球最大型基建公司给予一定估值溢价，给予公司 2026 年 17 倍 PE，对应目标价为 60.35 港币，首次覆盖给予 "收集"评级。 See the last page for disclaimer 1 [Table_header2] ➢ 25H1 集团各项业务表现稳健。1）25H1，电能实业有限公司为集团提供 10 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company plans to issue shares in the A-share market, which is expected to enhance its valuation. The issuance will involve up to 800 million shares, potentially diluting EPS by 11.5%, but the high return from overseas projects may offset this short-term dilution [7] - The company has received national subsidy funds of 2.064 billion HKD, which is expected to improve cash flow and reduce impairment risks. The company has also increased its interim dividend to 0.15 HKD per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [7] - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is 3.53 billion, 3.70 billion, and 3.92 billion HKD respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.57, 8.18, and 7.72. The expected dividend yield for the same period is 4.9%, 5.1%, and 5.4%, indicating a low valuation and high dividend value [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Closing price as of November 14, 2025, is 4.93 HKD with a market capitalization of 30,284.87 million HKD [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025 are 29,185.72 million HKD, with a year-on-year decline of 3.5%. Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 3,532.57 million HKD, reflecting a growth of 4.6% [6] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 8.57 for 2025, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to its earnings potential [6] Cash Flow Analysis - The net cash flow from operating activities is expected to be 7.56 million HKD in 2025, with capital expenditures of -3.27 million HKD [9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 17.36, corresponding to a 13x PE for 2026 [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading energy metering and efficiency management expert in China, with three main business segments: Electric AMI, Communication & Fluid AMI, and ADO [1][13]. - The overseas market revenue has been growing rapidly, with a fivefold increase from RMB 3.8 billion in 2020 to RMB 24 billion in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 58% [2][44]. - The ADO business is entering a rapid growth phase in overseas markets, with significant orders expected from data center clients [3][57]. - The company has maintained a leading position in bidding for projects from State Grid and Southern Grid, with a cumulative winning amount increasing from RMB 6.2 billion in 2020 to RMB 10.4 billion in 2024 [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established a strong presence in both domestic and international markets, with local factories in Mexico, Brazil, Tanzania, and Hungary to enhance competitiveness [2][14]. - The company focuses on energy metering and efficiency management solutions, serving various sectors including power, water, gas, and large industrial users [13][14]. Business Highlights - The overseas market is a significant growth driver, with the ADO business rapidly gaining traction in data center energy solutions [3][44]. - The company has a robust customer base, including major clients like State Grid and Southern Grid, contributing to stable revenue growth [4][35]. - The company has a strong R&D capability, which supports its competitive edge in the market [44]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown consistent growth, with a projected net profit of RMB 9.2 billion, RMB 12.1 billion, and RMB 15.3 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][10]. - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 4.7% for 2026 [5][10]. - The financial metrics indicate a healthy growth trajectory, with a CAGR of 23.8% in revenue from 2021 to 2024 [24][26].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, projecting net profits of RMB 5.72 billion, 6.24 billion, and 6.99 billion for 2025-2027, with a 2025 PE valuation of 38x, equating to a fair value of RMB 60.83 or HKD 66.85 per share [4][16]. Core Insights - The company is actively developing non-housing businesses to mitigate cyclical risks and is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements while increasing shareholder returns to enhance investment value [1]. - In Q3 2025, the total transaction volume was RMB 736.7 billion, stable year-on-year, with net income of RMB 23.1 billion, up 2.1% year-on-year. However, net profit decreased by 36.1% year-on-year to RMB 747 million [17]. - The existing home business showed a net income of RMB 6 billion, down 3.6% year-on-year, while the new home business net income was RMB 6.6 billion, down 14.1% year-on-year [18]. - The company has implemented a significant buyback plan, with Q3 2025 buybacks reaching USD 281 million, marking a two-year high [19]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 77.78 billion, with a growth rate of 28.2%. The net profit for 2023 is expected to be RMB 5.88 billion, reflecting a substantial increase of 524.5% [3]. - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to decline slightly from 24.55% in 2024 to 22.23% in 2027, indicating a trend of increasing costs relative to revenue [10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from RMB 133.15 billion in 2024 to RMB 156.70 billion in 2027, while total liabilities are expected to increase from RMB 61.70 billion to RMB 84.51 billion over the same period [5]. Business Performance - The company’s existing home transaction volume increased by 5.8% year-on-year to RMB 505.6 billion in Q3 2025, while the new home transaction volume decreased by 13.7% year-on-year to RMB 196.3 billion [18]. - The rental services segment has shown strong growth, contributing over RMB 100 million in profit in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 45.3% [17][7]. - The company’s home furnishing and rental services achieved profitability at the city level, with profit contributions to gross profit reaching a historical high [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Tencent Holdings [2][6] Core Insights - Tencent's Q3 2025 performance exceeded expectations with revenue of 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [1] - The company's AI ecosystem continues to accelerate, enhancing various business lines including gaming, advertising, and social networking [6][39] - The report forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, projecting revenues of 753.5 billion, 832.5 billion, and 907.7 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 260.2 billion, 293.6 billion, and 325.4 billion yuan [6][39] Business Segment Performance 1. Online Gaming - Q3 2025 revenue from online gaming reached 63.6 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, driven by strong domestic and international performance [10][14] - Domestic gaming revenue grew 15% to 42.8 billion yuan, while international gaming revenue surged 43% to 20.8 billion yuan [10][16] 2. Social Networking - Social networking revenue for Q3 2025 was 32.3 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, slightly below expectations [18] - The growth was primarily driven by paid music subscriptions and video live streaming services [18] 3. Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue reached 36.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 21% year-on-year increase, benefiting from improved ad exposure and AI-driven optimization [23][24] 4. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services was 58.2 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, supported by growth in commercial payments and demand for AI-related services [29] 5. Profitability and AI Integration - The company achieved a gross profit of 108.8 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a gross margin of 56.4%, reflecting improvements in high-margin businesses [36] - Significant investments in AI are expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive future growth across various segments [36][39]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in Q3 performance, with revenue reaching 76.85 million yuan (up 5% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter), and a net profit of 4.70 million yuan (turning profitable year-on-year and up 115% quarter-on-quarter) [4] - The growth in revenue is driven by an increase in advertising revenue, which reached 25.70 million yuan (up 23% year-on-year and 5% quarter-on-quarter), and an increase in value-added services [4] - The company is optimistic about the ongoing commercialization and growth in gaming, projecting net profits of 10.24 million yuan, 20.86 million yuan, and 28.50 million yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [4] Financial Summary - For 2025, the estimated revenue is 30,277 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.8% [6] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 1,024 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 176% [6] - The gross margin is projected to reach 36.7% in 2025, up from 24.2% in 2023 [6] User Engagement and Community Growth - The company achieved a record high in user engagement, with Daily Active Users (DAU) at 117 million (up 10% year-on-year) and Monthly Active Users (MAU) at 376 million (up 8% year-on-year) [5] - The average daily usage time reached 112 minutes, indicating strong user retention and engagement [5] - The number of paying users exceeded 35 million, with a year-on-year increase of 17% [5]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·环保 光大环境（00257.HK） 启动"回 A"进程，资本开支优选方向，不 改现金流价值逻辑 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 32,495 | 30,258 | 28,868 | 28,373 | 28,089 | | 同比(%) | (13.92) | (6.88) | (4.59) | (1.72) | (1.00) | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 4,429 | 3,377 | 3,576 | 3,874 | 4,036 | | 同比(%) | (3.75) | (23.75) | 5.90 | 8.31 | 4.19 | | EPS-最新摊薄（港元/股） | 0.72 | 0.55 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 0.66 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 6.84 | 8.97 | 8.47 | 7.82 | 7.50 | [Table_Tag] ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Tencent Holdings continues to demonstrate high growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 192.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 63.1 billion yuan, up 19% year-on-year and 13% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth driven by the deepening application of AI and the performance of both new and existing games. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 226.4 billion yuan, 256.2 billion yuan, and 288.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 23.7, 20.9, and 18.6 times [4][5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 609.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.8%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 752.39 billion yuan, reflecting a 14% increase [6] - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 115.22 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year growth of 68.4% expected in 2024, leading to a net profit of 194.07 billion yuan [6] - The gross margin is projected to improve to 56.4% by 2025, up from 48.1% in 2023, indicating enhanced profitability [6]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨福莱特玻璃（06865.HK） [Table_Title] Q3 利润同环比大幅增长，海外销售占比持续提 升 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 福莱特发布 2025 年三季报，2025 前三季度公司实现收入 124.64 亿元，同比下降 14.66%；归 母净利 6.38 亿元，同比下降 50.79%；其中，2025Q3 实现收入 47.27 亿元，同比增长 20.95%， 环比增长 29.22%；归母净利 3.76 亿元，同比扭亏，环比增长 142.93%，超出市场预期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 王耀 申浩树 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490524120006 SAC：S0490525060004 SFC：BQK482 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 福莱特玻璃（06865.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title ...

研究报告 Research Report 17 Nov 2025 安踏体育 ANTA SPORTS (2020 HK) 近况更新：随着天气转冷运动鞋服流水压力明显缓解，2026 年行业增长或加速 Recent Updates: Update: Sportswear and Footwear Sell-Through Pressure Eases as Weather Cools; Industry Growth Could Accelerate in 2026 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$82.10 目标价 HK$103.00 HTI ESG 0.7-1.6-3.5 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$230.47bn / US$29.66bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$135.10mn 发行股票数目 2,807mn 自由流通股 (% ...