证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2026 01 25 年 月 日 除了产品创新，公司近期也在积极扩张产能。2025 年 11 月 23 日，京东 方精电河源制造基地三期建设项目正式奠基。该项目集车载显示智能产 线、研发中心、核心实验室等功能于一体，预计将于 2026 年 11 月完成首 期设备搬入，2026 年 12 月实现规模化量产，投入运营后预计将新增年产 能超 1000 万片。目前，公司已构建起以河源、成都、越南三大基地为支 点的全球产能支撑与供应服务体系，持续巩固公司全球车载显示出货量第 一的市场领导地位。 回购股份用于人才激励。根据公司 2026 年 1 月 12 日公告，受托人根据 股份奖励计划从市场购买合共 50 万股股份以备未来股份奖励计划所需， 占目前已发行股份总数的 0.063%，回购均价 4.9 港元。 投资建议：考虑到汽车行业激烈竞争下，供应商定价和利润空间被挤压， 我们适当调整了盈利预测。我们预计京东方精电 2025-2027 年总收入约 140/155/175 亿港元，同比+4%/+10%/+13%，归母净利润 3.7/4.7/5.5 亿港元，同比-5%/+2 ...

[Table_Title] 【广发 纺 服 & 海 外 】 安 踏 体 育 （02020.HK） 25Q4 安踏承压，FILA 回暖，其他品牌保持高增长 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | | | | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入 | 62,356 | 70,826 | 77,464 | 85,221 | 94,684 | | 增长率（ % ） | 16.2% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 11.1% | | EBITDA | 19,708 | 23,861 | 24,689 | 26,748 | 29,797 | | 归母净利润 | 10,236 | 15,596 | 13,142 | 14,325 | 16,198 | | 增长率（ % ） | 34.9% | 52.4% | -15.7% | 9.0% | 13.1% | | EPS（元/股） | 3.61 | 5.52 | ...

特步国际 01368.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 主品牌短期承压 看好索康尼未来持续快增 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据公司 25 年四季度经营数据以及运动服饰消费行业目前的形势，我们调整公司盈 利预测，同时考虑到股本的变动，预计公司 2025-2027 年每股收益分别为 0.49、 0.53 元和 0.59 元（原预测分别为 0.49、0.56 元和 0.62 元）。参考可比公司，给予 公司 2026 年 12 倍 PE 估值，对应目标价 7.06 港币（1 人民币=1.11 港币），维持 "买入"评级。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧，运动服饰消费复苏不及预期，新品牌增长低于预期等 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 14,346 | 13,577 | 14,380 | 15,321 | 16,451 | | 同比增长 (%) | 10.9% | -5.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has successfully expanded its store formats, with the introduction of "锅圈小炒" (small stir-fry restaurants) expected to create new growth opportunities. This new format utilizes a standardized supply chain and smart cooking robots, allowing for quick meal preparation and competitive pricing compared to takeout [7] - The company has demonstrated strong same-store sales growth, even in the face of high comparatives, indicating effective product innovation and refined membership management. The management's deep involvement in store operations and flexible supply chain management has been highlighted as a previously underestimated capability [7] - The financial forecasts have been revised upwards due to anticipated better performance in store openings and same-store revenue. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.5 billion, 6.0 billion, and 7.6 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 94%, 34%, and 27% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,100 million RMB in 2023 to 10,916 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.06% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 239.64 million RMB in 2023 to 755.98 million RMB in 2027, with significant growth in the coming years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.09 RMB in 2023 to 0.28 RMB in 2027, indicating a strong improvement in profitability [1]

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·工业工程(HS) 希迪智驾（03881.HK） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 张良卫 执业证书：S0600516070001 021-60199793 zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 黄细里 执业证书：S0600520010001 021-60199793 huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 孙仁昊 深耕无人矿卡的智能驾驶平台型企业 2026 年 01 月 24 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 133.41 | 410.04 | 1,078.00 | 2,000.04 | 4,049.56 | | 同比(%) | 327.98 | 207.36 | 162.90 | 85.53 | 102.47 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (255.08) | (580.71) | (268. ...

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·工业工程(HS) 希迪智驾（03881.HK） 深耕无人矿卡的智能驾驶平台型企业 2026 年 01 月 24 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 133.41 | 410.04 | 1,078.00 | 2,000.04 | 4,049.56 | | 同比(%) | 327.98 | 207.36 | 162.90 | 85.53 | 102.47 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (255.08) | (580.71) | (268.79) | 102.72 | 627.06 | | 同比(%) | 3.01 | (127.66) | 53.71 | 138.22 | 510.45 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (5.83) | (13.26) | (6.14) | 2.35 | 14.32 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | (43.12) | (18 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国太平（00966.HK）2025 年报预增点评 推荐（维持） 业绩增长两倍，主因投资与税收 目标价：29.6 港元 事项： ❖ 根据公司初步估算，本集团 2025 年度股东应占溢利预计同比增加 215%至 225%。 评论： 一、对于新保险合同准则执行年度为 2025 年度及之前的企业，自 2026 年起以 新保险合同准则为基础，作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业首次执行《保险合同准则》产生的留存收益累积影响数，按税前金额计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额，或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税 所得额。两种方法可自主选择，一经选择不得更改。 首次执行年度至 2025 年度期间，企业执行《保险合同准则》为基础计算的应 纳税所得额与已申报的应纳税所得额的差额，计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额， 或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税所得额。 二、对于 2026 年度及以后年度为首次执行年度的企业，在计算缴纳企业所得 税时，自首次执行年度起以《保险合同准则》为基础，按照企业所得税现行规 定作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业因执行《保险合同准则》产生的留 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 评论： 一、对于新保险合同准则执行年度为 2025 年度及之前的企业，自 2026 年起以 新保险合同准则为基础，作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 企业首次执行《保险合同准则》产生的留存收益累积影响数，按税前金额计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额，或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税 所得额。两种方法可自主选择，一经选择不得更改。 首次执行年度至 2025 年度期间，企业执行《保险合同准则》为基础计算的应 纳税所得额与已申报的应纳税所得额的差额，计入 2026 年度应纳税所得额， 或自 2026 年度起分五个年度均匀计入各年度应纳税所得额。 二、对于 2026 年度及以后年度为首次执行年度的企业，在计算缴纳企业所得 税时，自首次执行年度起以《保险合同准则》为基础，按照企业所得税现行规 定作纳税调整并计算缴纳企业所得税。 中国太平（00966.HK）2025 年报预增点评 推荐（维持） 业绩增长两倍，主因投资与税收 目标价：29.6 港元 事项： ❖ 根据公司初步估算，本集团 2025 年度股东应占溢利预计同比增加 215%至 225%。 企业因执行《保险合同准则》产生的留 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express maintains significant competitive advantages, including leading market share, superior network operational capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO's strategy of "pursuing both volume and quality" is expected to enhance its market share as the demand structure in the express delivery industry optimizes due to price increases and e-commerce taxation [3] - Long-term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is anticipated to develop a diversified service system, leading to improved profitability [3] Summary by Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits [1] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the industry through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network services in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery fee model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Company Highlights - ZTO Express's competitive advantages remain strong, with expectations for continued market share growth and an optimized competitive landscape [3] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% [3][5] - The current stock price is considered to be at a low point, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating significant long-term investment value [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for trendy toys is not a false need; entertainment is a necessity. The "Kidult" trend, driven by demographic changes, media evolution, and consumer psychology, is a long-term trend in the toy industry, exemplified by the increasing market share of companies targeting adult consumers [1][14] - The global entertainment and media industry is projected to reach approximately $3 trillion by 2024, indicating a growing market for diversified entertainment offerings [1][35] Supply-Side Growth Potential - Store Expansion: The company has significant room for growth in retail locations, with a projected increase in global retail stores from 571 in 2025, with a substantial portion located in China [2][58] - Increased Store Traffic: Domestic single-store membership is expected to rise from 145,000 to nearly 200,000, indicating potential for higher customer traffic [2] - Higher Member Spending: The maturity of IPs is expected to drive up member spending, as seen with the SKULLPANDA IP, where the cost to collect all items increased significantly from 5,922 RMB in 2021 to 47,430 RMB in 2025 [2] Demand-Side Competitive Barriers - Artist Talent Barrier: The company has established relationships with mature toy artists, creating a long-term competitive advantage [3] - Marketing Resource Barrier: The company's business model relies on top-tier brand collaborations and celebrity endorsements, which are core competitive barriers [3] - User Data Asset Barrier: The company's direct sales channels enhance its ability to control user data and market feedback, improving operational efficiency [3] Valuation Safety Margin - The company's valuation is expected to be significantly above 10X PE, given its growth stage and the rising influence of China's cultural output on its growth trajectory [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 369.57 billion RMB, 551.72 billion RMB, and 678.11 billion RMB for the years 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 123.76 billion RMB, 173.73 billion RMB, and 226.85 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 295.98%, 40.37%, and 30.58% respectively [4][7] - The target price is set at 359.72 HKD, based on a 25X PE for 2026 [4]