[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） [Table_Title] 小鹏汽车获 L3 级自动驾驶测试牌照，开启 L3 测试新阶段 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 小鹏汽车在广州市获 L3 级自动驾驶道路测试牌照，并启动常态化 L3 道路测试，主要适用范围 为广州市智能网联测试高快速路上进行有条件自动驾驶测试。小鹏汽车 AI 应用历史积淀深厚， 当前全面转向 AI 战略，定位面向全球的 AI 汽车公司，并明确未来十年将转型为 AI 汽车智能科 技企业，AI 业务全面起势。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 小鹏汽车获2]L3 级自动驾驶测试牌照，开启 L3 测试新阶段 [Table_Summary2] ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.5, compared to the current price of HKD 10.54 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company, Chi Zi Cheng Technology, is a leading global social entertainment platform from China, focusing on diverse social experiences for users from various cultural backgrounds, primarily in the Middle East and North Africa [1][15]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 40% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching RMB 3.181 billion, and a net profit of RMB 489 million, corresponding to a net profit margin of 15.4% [1][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chi Zi Cheng Technology has transitioned from a tool-based application to a diversified social product matrix, focusing on global social entertainment [15][16]. - The company has established a strong localized operational team with around 800 members across more than 20 countries, implementing a "China-led, local-driven" collaborative model [2][19]. Social Business Strategy - The company's core social business, which is expected to account for over 70% of total revenue by 2024, employs a "bush" product matrix strategy, including products like MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO [2][35]. - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions, such as Blue City Brothers, to enhance its presence in the diverse social market, with Blue City's MAU reaching approximately 7.45 million [2][3]. Innovative Business Growth - The company is developing a second growth curve through innovative businesses, including premium mobile games and social e-commerce, with the flagship game "Alice's Dream: MergeGames" showing over 60% revenue growth in 2024 [3][4]. - The social e-commerce segment is expanding, with acquisitions enhancing user demographics and engagement [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 69.0 billion, 84.1 billion, and 97.0 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of RMB 9.5 billion, 12.4 billion, and 14.9 billion, reflecting growth rates of 97.0%, 31.3%, and 19.7% [4][5]. - The report highlights the company's strong localization strategy and successful "product + country" replication strategy, positioning it well in emerging social entertainment markets [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [3]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a rare growth-oriented electrolytic aluminum enterprise, with a focus on integrated production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum. It is expanding its capacity in Saudi Arabia, which is expected to be a significant growth driver [6][7]. - The company has a strong domestic production base with a total capacity of 788,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 3.2 million tons of alumina, with a self-sufficiency rate exceeding 100% for alumina [6][21]. - The report highlights the company's competitive advantage in energy costs due to its location in Inner Mongolia, where it has access to abundant coal resources and is transitioning to green energy sources [6][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Integrated Layout and Overseas Expansion - The company has established a comprehensive alumina and electrolytic aluminum production layout, with significant investments planned for a 500,000-ton aluminum project in Saudi Arabia [13][21]. - The company aims to enhance its green energy usage by developing wind and solar power projects in Inner Mongolia, which will further reduce energy costs [13][16]. 2. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 15.16 billion in 2024 to RMB 18.95 billion in 2027, with a notable increase in net profit from RMB 2.06 billion to RMB 4.73 billion during the same period [2]. - The report indicates a strong upward trend in overall performance, with a projected net profit growth rate of 104.9% in 2024 [23]. 3. Industry Overview - The report notes that the electrolytic aluminum market is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with limited new capacity expected to come online in the near term [43][48]. - The domestic aluminum industry is nearing its capacity ceiling, with a projected net increase of only 65,000 tons in 2025, indicating limited supply elasticity [48][51]. 4. Company-Specific Insights - The company is recognized as a unique growth-oriented player in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with a focus on expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally [6][21]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic advantage in energy costs and its robust production capabilities, which are expected to support its growth trajectory [6][16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tencent Holdings [2]. Core Insights - Tencent's "Friend Praise" social discount activity on WeChat aims to enhance user engagement and drive e-commerce transactions by leveraging social relationships, offering up to 45% subsidies to users [2]. - Tencent's gaming revenue from overseas markets has surpassed that of Electronic Arts (EA), with a decentralized empowerment model that allows studios creative autonomy, contributing to a more resilient gaming ecosystem [3]. - Tencent Cloud's native API has seen explosive growth, with daily calls exceeding 10 billion and over 1 million developers served, marking a shift from resource selling to capability services [4]. - Tencent's first digital therapy product has entered clinical application, showcasing the integration of gaming technology into healthcare and establishing a commercial closed loop for future digital therapy products [5]. Summary by Sections E-commerce - The launch of "Friend Praise" on WeChat targets private domain conversion, allowing users to invite friends to like products for exclusive discounts, thus enhancing product exposure and conversion rates [2]. Gaming - Elon Musk's endorsement of Tencent's gaming strategy highlights its success in overseas markets, where its revenue has outpaced EA, emphasizing a non-interfering investment approach that fosters creativity [3]. Cloud Services - Tencent Cloud's API usage has surpassed 10 billion daily calls, indicating its robust architecture and the transition to providing standardized API services for developers, facilitating digital transformation [4]. Healthcare - The introduction of Tencent's digital therapy product in clinical settings represents a significant advancement in applying gaming technology to medical interventions, establishing a precedent for future digital health solutions [5].

威胜控股（3393 HK） | 2025 年 12 月 17 日 香港股市 | 工业 | 电气设备 威胜控股（3393 HK） AIDC 客户支持料超想象，估值升级缺口再现扩大 公司拜访：上调升目标价，重申"买入"评级 今年 6 月中我们首次覆盖后，公司股价至今已经上涨 124.5%。虽然如此，近日我们拜访 公司后，认为股价仍具充裕上行空间。AIDC(人工智能数据中心)客户对公司的智能配电服 务需求料高于预期，FY26 相关新增订单有望大幅增长。公司的发展基础也因此进一步由 传统工业板块扩展至先进科技板块，支持更高估值。 我们分别调升 FY25-27 股东净利润预测 1.2%、1.6%、2.1%(见图表 1)，并将目标价由 17.40 港元上调至 21.75 港元，对应 16.0 倍 FY26 目标市盈率及 30.4%上行空间。如明年首季公 司被纳入港股通，公司估值届时将更有效反映。我们重申"买入" 评级。 明年 AIDC 客户新增订单料大幅增长 在 AI 行业发展下，AIDC 耗电需求支持公司的智能配电业务增长。我们预计 FY25 相关新 增订单约 23 亿元(人民币，下同)，其中 10 亿元订单今年交付。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][7]. Core Views - Tencent's overseas cloud and gaming businesses are positioned as dual growth engines, with AI empowerment creating new growth opportunities. The company is focusing on infrastructure expansion and local service differentiation to enhance its competitive edge in the global market [3][8][21]. Summary by Sections Overseas Cloud Business - Tencent is adopting an "infrastructure-first" strategy, rapidly expanding its global data center footprint, currently covering 22 regions worldwide. The company has successfully migrated key clients like GoTo in Indonesia and Charoen Pokphand Group in Thailand, demonstrating its ability to penetrate the market with high cost-effectiveness and optimized architecture [3][6][9]. - The company plans significant investments in overseas cloud infrastructure, including $150 million in the Middle East and $500 million in Indonesia for new data centers [6]. Overseas Gaming Business - Tencent's overseas gaming revenue is projected to reach 75.7 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31%. This growth is attributed to the maturation of Tencent's industrial capabilities and the long-term benefits of recent acquisitions [4][11]. - The company is increasingly collaborating with game development teams, enhancing its Game as a Service (GaaS) capabilities by leveraging domestic industrial efficiency alongside overseas creative strengths [4][16]. AI Empowerment in Gaming - AI tools are being utilized by 95% of employees in Tencent's Photon Studio, significantly improving game production efficiency. AI applications are enhancing user retention through features like AI teammates and coaches [5][17]. - Tencent is making strides in AI-native gaming, developing technologies that allow for real-time scene generation and improved gameplay experiences, although challenges remain in character behavior and coherence [18]. Financial Forecasts - The adjusted net profit forecasts for Tencent are 262.6 billion yuan, 301.3 billion yuan, and 345.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [21][22].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 12.60, corresponding to a 27x P/E for 2026 [4][15][17]. Core Insights - The company has achieved rapid expansion from Southeast Asia to a global logistics operator covering 13 countries, leveraging a highly flexible regional agency model [4][18]. - Southeast Asia serves as the profit foundation, while improvements in profitability are observed in China, with emerging markets expected to form a second growth engine [4][18]. - The company has successfully entered new markets in the Middle East and Latin America, enhancing its global network [4][19]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from USD 8.849 billion in 2023 to USD 17.405 billion by 2027, with annual growth rates of 22%, 16%, 18%, 18%, and 22% respectively [3][14]. - Gross profit is expected to increase from USD 473 million in 2023 to USD 1.923 billion in 2027 [3]. - The company anticipates a return to profitability with net income projected to rise from a loss of USD 1.101 billion in 2023 to a profit of USD 864 million by 2027 [3][13]. Revenue Forecast - Revenue from Southeast Asia is expected to grow significantly, reaching USD 8.283 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 34% from 2025 to 2027 [14][13]. - Revenue from China is projected to stabilize, with a slight increase to USD 7.109 billion by 2027 [14][13]. - New market revenues are anticipated to grow rapidly, reaching USD 1.958 billion by 2027, reflecting a strong CAGR of 43% [14][13]. Profitability Metrics - The company is expected to achieve a gross margin improvement, with gross margins projected to rise from 5.34% in 2023 to 11.05% in 2027 [3][14]. - Net profit margins are forecasted to improve significantly, with net profit margins expected to reach 4.96% by 2027 [3][14]. Valuation Methodology - The report utilizes both P/E and P/B valuation methods, ultimately favoring the P/E method due to its reflection of the company's brand value and operational efficiency [15][17]. - The target price of HKD 12.60 is based on a 27x P/E for 2026, while a P/B valuation suggests a lower target price of HKD 10.64 [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The partnership between Disney and OpenAI marks a new paradigm of "IP + AI," indicating a shift in Hollywood's approach to AI-generated content [7] - The collaboration includes IP licensing, a $1 billion equity investment from Disney in OpenAI, and the application of OpenAI's technology to enhance Disney's creative processes and develop new products for Disney+ [7] - The company is expected to benefit directly from this partnership, particularly through the increase in user-generated content (UGC) on Disney+ [7] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at HK$29.9 billion, HK$35.7 billion, and HK$43.0 billion respectively, with corresponding P/S ratios of 4.6, 3.7, and 3.1 [2] - Adjusted profits for the same period are forecasted to be HK$2.1 billion, HK$3.3 billion, and HK$4.2 billion, leading to P/E ratios of 51, 34, and 26 [2] - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at HK$2.401 billion, with a growth rate of 20.01%, and net profit is expected to reach HK$143 million, reflecting a significant increase of 1925.62% [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][51] Core Insights - As of the end of November, the company's PE ratio stands at 30.30x, which is at the 18th percentile historically since 2016, indicating a certain level of investment value [2][6][51] - The report anticipates that with the continued enhancement of the mutual market access policies in Hong Kong's capital market, liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market will continue to rise, leading to an increase in overall market activity and valuations [2][6][51] - Projected revenues and other income for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to be 29.7 billion, 32.1 billion, and 34.6 billion HKD, respectively, with net profits attributable to shareholders expected to be 17 billion, 17.8 billion, and 19.5 billion HKD, corresponding to PE valuations of 30.0, 28.7, and 26.2 times [2][6][51] Market Environment - The Hong Kong stock market has shown an upward trend, supported by domestic policy drivers, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 28.9% and 25.3% respectively compared to the end of 2024 [11][16] - The average daily trading (ADT) for the Hong Kong stock exchange was 230.7 billion HKD in November, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 42.8% despite a month-on-month decrease of 16.1% [16][11] - The IPO scale in Hong Kong saw significant growth in November, with 11 new stocks listed, raising a total of 41.8 billion HKD, marking a 363% year-on-year increase [30][31] Business Segments - In the cash market, the average daily trading volume for Northbound trading was 243.2 billion HKD, while Southbound trading was 97.9 billion HKD, with both showing year-on-year increases despite month-on-month declines [16][11] - The derivatives market experienced a decrease in trading volume, with futures ADV at 637,000 contracts and options ADV at 1,014,000 contracts in November, reflecting a month-on-month decline [20][11] - The LME daily trading volume increased to 807,000 contracts in November, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [26][11] Economic Context - The domestic economic environment is showing signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI for November at 49.20%, indicating a slight improvement [44][46] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts have enhanced liquidity in overseas markets, with expectations for further rate reductions in 2026 [46][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is implementing differentiated pricing adjustments across various product groups to optimize its business structure and enhance operational quality and value creation [2][3]. - The issuance of HKD 1 billion convertible bonds at a coupon rate of 4.25% aims to strengthen the company's capital structure and support global market expansion and product development [4]. - The integration of SUSONITY is showing initial synergies, with improvements in organizational governance and cross-regional collaboration, enhancing operational efficiency [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of HKD 1,056 million in 2023, increasing to HKD 6,702 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 73.36% from 2025 to 2026 [10]. - Net profit is expected to rise from HKD 182 million in 2023 to HKD 864 million in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 161.40% in 2026 [10]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to HKD 661 million and HKD 864 million, respectively, reflecting the positive impact of acquisitions and operational synergies [5]. Market Position and Strategy - The differentiated pricing strategy is designed to align product value with market demand, focusing on high-value-added businesses, with price adjustments ranging from 3% to 30% based on product characteristics [3]. - The company is actively pursuing global expansion through acquisitions, specifically targeting the surface materials business of Merck in Germany, to establish itself as a leader in the pearlescent pigment market [5].