Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights the significant financial opportunity in combating government fraud, estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars annually [1][3] Core Viewpoints - Government fraud losses are estimated at $233 billion to $521 billion annually, representing 3 to 7 percent of federal obligations [3] - Fraud risk is increasing due to sophisticated fraudsters, particularly in programs like tax refunds and pandemic-era unemployment insurance [3] - Effective anti-fraud efforts require collaboration between agencies, legislature, and the public [3] Challenges in Fighting Fraud - Agencies often handle fraud cases individually, leading to inefficiencies and limited impact [5] - Government agencies face capability gaps in recruiting AI talent and managing data pipelines for real-time fraud detection [6] - Many agencies fear embarrassment and budget constraints, which hinder proactive anti-fraud efforts [8][9] Opportunities for Improvement - The banking industry's approach to fraud prevention, including data fusion and probabilistic risk assessment, can serve as a model for government agencies [10] - Agencies like the IRS and CMS have successfully implemented anti-fraud measures, saving billions of dollars [11][17][21] - Coordinated action across stakeholders, including better data sharing and funding mechanisms, is essential for progress [12][26] Key Success Factors - Executive commitment and dedicated anti-fraud teams are critical for overcoming funding and capability challenges [26] - Improved data capture and sharing within and across agencies can significantly enhance fraud detection [26] - Public acceptance of additional verification steps is necessary for the success of government fraud defenses [28] Potential Impact - Reducing fraud losses could eliminate the annual Social Security deficit and fund major government departments [3] - The IRS's anti-fraud efforts reduced fraudsters' success rate from 19 percent to 12 percent, saving $2.7 billion annually [21][23]

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Applied AI industry, highlighting its growth and potential impact across various sectors [1] Core Investment Thesis - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating but emphasizes the transformative potential of Applied AI in driving efficiency and innovation [1] Key Findings - Applied AI is expected to significantly enhance productivity and operational efficiency across industries, with potential economic impacts in the trillions of dollars [1] - The technology is being adopted at an accelerated pace, with major investments from both private and public sectors [1] Sector-Specific Insights - The report suggests that industries such as healthcare, finance, and manufacturing are likely to see the most immediate benefits from Applied AI integration [1] - Case studies within the report highlight successful implementations of AI in optimizing supply chains and improving customer experiences [1] Future Outlook - The report projects continued growth in the Applied AI sector, driven by advancements in machine learning and data analytics [1] - Emerging markets are identified as key areas for future expansion, with increasing adoption rates expected in the coming years [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) as a general-purpose technology is expected to transform work across various industries and job roles, affecting up to 80 percent of U.S. workers with at least 10 percent of their work activities impacted by large language models [2][25] - AI's impact is anticipated to be pervasive across all occupational categories, including knowledge workers, with significant implications for workforce development and training [15][17] - Continuous retraining and upskilling will be essential as technical skills become outdated in less than five years on average, necessitating a well-rounded workforce capable of adapting to technological changes [3][5] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - AI is poised to transform work across various industries, affecting a significant portion of the workforce [2] - The transformation depends on AI's ability to perform or enhance core tasks and whether it substitutes or complements human workers [3] The Potential Impact of AI in the Workforce - AI is a general-purpose technology that can disrupt a wide range of skills and occupations, with significant implications for workforce development [22] - Occupations with high exposure to AI but low complementarity face the greatest risk of disruption, highlighting the need for retraining [34] The Impact of AI on Skills and Occupations - Technical skills account for about 27 percent of in-demand skills, while foundational, social, and thinking skills make up nearly 58 percent [4][38] - The demand for social skills has grown significantly, indicating a shift in the skills required in the labor market [43] Conversations with Subject Matter Experts - Community colleges are crucial in workforce development, providing accessible and affordable training programs tailored to local needs [48][50] - Work-based learning and alternative educational pathways, such as apprenticeships and career technical education (CTE), are seen as effective methods for retraining and upskilling [51][54] The Role of AI in Workforce Training and Development - AI tools can personalize workforce training by automating knowledge tracing and generating tailored content [72][80] - The speed of AI allows for just-in-time learning, accommodating busy schedules and enhancing training effectiveness [81][82] Conclusion - AI's broad impact necessitates comprehensive workforce development strategies, emphasizing the role of community colleges and the importance of digital skills education [106][107] - Addressing inequalities in access to AI tools and ensuring ethical implementation are critical for maximizing the benefits of AI in workforce training [107][108]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The poverty rate in South Sudan is alarmingly high, with 75.9% of the population living below the national poverty line of SSP358,724, and 67.3% living in extreme poverty, defined as less than SSP298,478 annually [38][138]. - The report highlights that poverty is particularly severe in rural areas, where approximately 80% of the population is poor, compared to about 60% in urban areas [38][144]. - The economic situation has deteriorated significantly since independence, with real GDP per capita declining to about one-third of its value in 2011, while average consumer prices have increased dramatically [44][116]. - Food insecurity has worsened, affecting nearly three-quarters of the population, with 53% experiencing moderate food insecurity and 20% facing severe food insecurity [62][255]. - The report identifies persistent conflict, inadequate state capacity, and extreme natural disasters as key drivers of poverty and food insecurity in South Sudan [87][88]. Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Poverty and Inequality: Profile and Trends - The national poverty rate was estimated at 78.4% in 2021, with extreme poverty at 71.5% [138]. - Consumption inequality is substantial, with a Gini coefficient of 0.45 nationally, indicating significant disparities in wealth distribution [140][152]. - Multidimensional poverty affects 92.6% of the population, with rural areas experiencing higher rates of deprivation [181][182]. - The report notes that poverty is widespread across all states, with some counties exhibiting poverty rates exceeding 80% [188][193]. Chapter 2: Food Security - Food insecurity has reached critical levels, with significant increases in both moderate and severe food insecurity since 2010 [255][262]. - The report indicates that rural residents are disproportionately affected, with 75% experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity compared to 52% in urban areas [269][270]. - Low household food production and limited access to markets are identified as major contributors to food insecurity [308][328]. - Persistent conflict and climate shocks exacerbate food insecurity, with floods and droughts significantly impacting agricultural productivity [360][371]. Chapter 3: Shocks and Resilience - The report highlights that 70% of households experienced at least one shock in the six months prior to the survey, with high food prices being the most common shock [353][358]. - Floods are a significant climate-related shock, affecting 27% of households, particularly in vulnerable regions [360][366]. - Households employ various coping strategies in response to shocks, with many resorting to emergency measures that deplete their resources [432][433]. Chapter 4: Policy Considerations - The report emphasizes the need for institutional reforms and human capital development to address the underlying causes of poverty and food insecurity [460][466]. - Recommendations include improving access to education and health services, enhancing food security through agricultural investments, and building resilience to climate shocks [470][476]. - The report calls for increased government investment in social protection programs to support the most vulnerable populations [447][448].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Cambodia has made incremental progress in modernizing its core government systems, improving its Government Technology Maturity Index (GTMI) from 0.45 in 2020 to 0.58 in 2022, but lacks a centralized full-suite Human Resource Management Information System (HRMIS) [9][24]. - The absence of a well-functioning HRMIS presents challenges for effective human resource management in the Cambodian civil service, which consists of over 284,484 active and contracted staff [10][27]. - Investment in a full-suite HRMIS is essential for improving HR practices and aligning with public administration reform and digital government transformation priorities [10][12]. Summary by Sections I. Introduction - The report outlines the need for modernizing HRMIS in Cambodia to enhance public sector effectiveness and efficiency [18]. - It highlights global trends and challenges in HRM and HRMIS development, emphasizing technology as a key enabler for improvement [18]. II. Current Status and Challenges - Cambodia's GTMI scores have improved, but a centralized HRMIS is still lacking, leading to inefficiencies in personnel data management [24][26]. - The Ministry of Civil Service (MCS) has introduced outdated HRMIS and payroll systems, which are not fully integrated or fit for modern HR practices [10][27]. III. Towards a Modernized HRMIS - The report recommends a roadmap for HRMIS modernization, emphasizing the need for a phased approach to implement prioritized modules [12][29]. - Successful implementation can streamline HR processes, reduce manual work, and enhance decision-making capabilities [12][31]. IV. Recommendations - The report suggests that careful planning, collaboration, and user-friendly design are crucial for the successful transition to a full-suite HRMIS [13][15]. - Legal and regulatory compliance is necessary to support the modernization process, particularly concerning data management and privacy [16]. V. Benefits of HRMIS Implementation - A full-suite HRMIS can improve data management, decision-making, employee experience, and cost efficiency [32]. - It can also standardize HR processes across the civil service, leading to better resource allocation and improved public service delivery [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies within the US Softlines Retail sector, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [351][356][361]. Core Insights - The growth rate of US brands' sales in China has decelerated significantly, with the Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) index for 27 US Softlines brands decreasing by 24% year-over-year in November, marking a deceleration of approximately 17,700 basis points month-over-month [10][32]. - Only 6 out of the 27 brands in the index experienced year-over-year GMV growth, highlighting the challenging market conditions [10][32]. - Crocs and Canada Goose showed the best growth rates in November, with year-over-year increases of 84% and 55% respectively, while brands like Nike and Skechers faced substantial declines of 63% and 66% [10][11][12][55]. Summary by Sections China Online Market Monitor - The UBS Evidence Lab's China Online Market Monitor tracks the online performance of major consumer brands, focusing on GMV, sales volume, and average selling prices on platforms like Tmall and Taobao [13][364]. Softlines Industry Gross Merchandise Value Index - The Softlines Industry GMV index increased by 12% on a two-year basis, despite a month-over-month deceleration [44][46]. - The index's year-over-year change reflects a significant decline, indicating a challenging environment for softlines retailers [32][44]. Company Leaderboards - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various companies, with Crocs and Salomon leading in growth on a rolling three-month, two-year basis, showing increases of 202% and 108% respectively [11][55]. - Other notable performers include Lululemon and Canada Goose, with growth rates of 94% and 93% [11][55]. Time Series Data - The report includes time series data for individual companies, illustrating trends in GMV and sales performance over time [10][11][12][55]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report presents a valuation table for the companies covered, detailing market capitalization, price targets, and expected sales growth rates [351][356][361]. - Key financial metrics such as return on equity (ROE), profit margins, and debt ratios are also analyzed to assess the financial health of the companies [356][361]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the report suggests a cautious optimism for select companies within the US Softlines Retail sector, despite the broader challenges faced in the market [351][356][361].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies within the US Softlines Retail sector, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [351][356][361]. Core Insights - The growth rate of US brands' sales in China has decelerated significantly, with the Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) index for 27 US Softlines brands decreasing by 24% year-over-year in November, reflecting a 17,700 basis points deceleration month-over-month [10][32][44]. - On a two-year basis, the index showed a growth of 12%, but this also represented a deceleration of approximately 2,800 basis points month-over-month [44][44]. - Notable performers in November included Crocs and Canada Goose, which reported year-over-year GMV growth rates of 84% and 55%, respectively [10][11][55]. - Conversely, brands like Nike and Skechers experienced significant declines, with Nike's GMV decreasing by 63% year-over-year and Skechers by 66% [12][55]. Summary by Sections China Online Market Monitor - The UBS Evidence Lab's China Online Market Monitor tracks the online performance of major consumer brands, focusing on GMV, sales volume, and average selling prices on platforms like Tmall and Taobao [13][13]. Softlines Industry Gross Merchandise Value Index - The Softlines Industry GMV Index reflects a 24% year-over-year decline, indicating challenges in the market [32][32]. - The index's performance is heavily influenced by the sales trends of individual brands, with only 6 out of 27 brands showing growth [10][10]. Company Leaderboards - The report highlights the performance of various companies, with Crocs and Canada Goose leading in growth, while brands like Abercrombie & Fitch and Victoria's Secret faced substantial declines [11][11][55]. - The report provides detailed GMV growth rates for each brand, showcasing the stark differences in performance across the sector [11][11][55]. Time Series Data - Time series data for individual companies illustrates the fluctuations in GMV over recent months, emphasizing the volatility within the softlines retail sector [10][10][11]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report includes a valuation table for the companies covered, detailing market capitalization, price targets, and expected returns, which supports the investment ratings assigned [351][356][361].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for carbon management technologies, emphasizing their critical role in mitigating climate change and the potential for investment opportunities in this sector [4][20]. Core Insights - COP29 marked a significant advancement in carbon management, with the establishment of global carbon market rules and frameworks that enhance financial accessibility and inclusivity [4][6][20]. - The operationalization of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, particularly the endorsement of Article 6.4 guidelines, is a key milestone for carbon trading and management [7][8]. - The emphasis on collaboration among various stakeholders, including governments and industries, is crucial for scaling carbon management solutions and achieving climate goals [5][17][20]. Summary by Sections Global Carbon Market Rules - Substantial progress was made on carbon trading rules under Article 6, with the endorsement of guidelines that facilitate bilateral trading of Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (ITMOs) and the establishment of the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism (PACM) [7][8]. - ITMOs incentivize investment in emissions reduction technologies, particularly in regions with limited financing access, while the PACM supports the international sale of carbon credits [8][9]. NCQG Framework - The NCQG framework offers flexibility in eligibility for carbon management technologies, but lacks explicit prioritization for funding and detailed mechanisms for balancing public and private finance [11]. - Ongoing debates around concessional versus non-concessional funding could limit accessibility for emerging economies [11]. Mitigation Work Programme - The Mitigation Ambition and Implementation Work Programme (MWP) showed mixed outcomes, with opportunities for continued discussions on carbon management in future dialogues [12]. - The potential creation of a digital platform for collaboration on investable mitigation projects was highlighted [12]. Socioeconomic Impacts - A four-year work plan (2026-2030) was established to address the socioeconomic impacts of climate policies, integrating trade-related climate measures into global discussions [14][16]. - The importance of just transition strategies in climate mitigation policies was emphasized, reflecting the need for socio-economic considerations in carbon management [16]. Carbon Management Challenge - The Carbon Management Challenge (CMC) aims to advance a pipeline of carbon management projects targeting the management of over 1 gigatonne (Gt) of CO2 annually by 2030 [17][18]. - Key workstreams include finance for developing countries, project deployment, and communication, with a focus on innovative financing mechanisms and international collaboration [18]. Challenges and Pathways - The outcomes of COP29 provide a foundation for scaling carbon management technologies, with a recognition of the need for financial resources and capacity-building in developing countries [20]. - The deployment of carbon management technologies must align with broader sustainable development objectives to avoid unintended consequences [20].

DECEMBER 2024 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Sam Winter-Levy | The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy | | | | | | | | | | The AI Export Dilemma: Three Competing Visions for U.S. Strategy Sam Winter-Levy © 2024 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved. Carnegie does not take institutional positions on p ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights the exponential growth of women's football, positioning it as football's biggest growth opportunity with vast untapped potential [16][21] Core Viewpoints - FIFA aims to lead the sustainable growth of women's football until 2027 through a revised global strategy and tailored development programmes [2][3] - Key objectives include increasing female participation, enhancing commercial value, and building strong foundations for the women's game [22][23][31] - The FIFA Women's World Cup is identified as a major catalyst for accelerating the growth of women's football globally [17][19] Strategy and Tactics Participation Growth - FIFA targets increasing the number of female players to 60 million by 2027 [37] - Plans to double the number of member associations with organized youth leagues by 2026 to sustain girls' participation [37] Commercial Value Enhancement - FIFA aims to unlock the commercial potential of women's football at all levels, leveraging the success of the FIFA Women's World Cup [26][28] - The organization plans to develop a dedicated women's football commercial programme by 2026 [45] Foundation Building - FIFA commits to modernizing the regulatory framework and ensuring diverse representation in football leadership [32][33] - The organization will invest in targeted research to close the gender research gap and support the professionalisation of women's football [32] Game Plan Execution - FIFA's five-pronged strategy includes developing and growing the game, showcasing it, communicating and commercialising it, governing and leading, and educating and empowering stakeholders [35] - Specific tactics include modernizing development programmes, creating new competitions, and strengthening the Women's International Match Calendar [36][42] Development Programmes Women's Football Strategy - FIFA supports member associations in developing or revising their women's football strategies through expert guidance and funding up to USD 10,000 [93] Women's Football Campaign - This programme aims to boost grassroots participation by organizing football festivals and providing safe spaces for minority groups [96][98] League Development - Focuses on introducing new competitions and strengthening existing ones, with funding up to USD 100,000 per year for capacity-building [105][106] Club Licensing - Aims to accelerate the professionalisation of women's football by raising club and league standards through licensing workshops and funding up to USD 20,000 per year [111][112] Commercial Strategy (Pilot) - Provides guidance to member associations for establishing sustainable sponsorship and marketing strategies, with funding up to USD 50,000 [115][117] Global Benchmarking of Women's Leagues - FIFA will monitor the state of women's leagues globally and provide benchmarking tools to improve their quality and competitiveness [121][123] Capacity-Building for Administrators - Offers workshops and funding up to USD 50,000 to enhance the skills of women's football staff in member associations [130][131] Women in Football Leadership - Aims to increase female representation in decision-making roles through leadership workshops and networking opportunities [136][137] Coach Education Scholarships - Supports the development of female coaches through individual and group scholarships, including course fees and networking opportunities [149][150] Coach Mentorship - Focuses on fostering the growth of female coaches through mentorship programmes and funding up to USD 50,000 [156][157] Elite Performance: Coach Mentorship - Aims to develop talented female coaches aspiring to coach at the highest level, with support from experienced mentors and funding up to USD 2,500 [160][161] Elite Performance: Women's National Team Preparation - Supports the physical preparation of women's national teams for major tournaments, with funding up to USD 25,000 per year [172][173]