房地产开发 Email：youzp@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740523080001 Email：houxd@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(百万股) | 2,539.60 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,539.60 | | 市价(港元) | 9.76 | | 市值(百万港元) | 24,786.48 | | 流通市值(百万港 | 24,786.48 | | 元) | | 1、《短期业绩承压，积极布局核心 城市》2025-04-25 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 股价与行业-市场走势对比 结算节奏及减值影响当期利润。2025 年上半年，公司实现营收 533.7 亿元，同比-23. 3%，股东应占利润为 2.1 亿元，同比-89.7%。收入和利润下滑，一方面系项目结算 分布不均，结算面积同比-22.7%，另一方面，房地产市场环境转冷，公司计提了 19. 3 亿元的资产减值。总体来看，在行业基本面下滑的背景下，公司在财务上较为保守， 充分计提减值，为未来轻装上阵打下良好的基础。 销售排名前列，拿地聚焦核心城市。2025 年上半 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.08 [1][5] Core Views - Despite short-term profit pressure, the company's development business scale and operational advantages remain industry-leading, with a stable market share in development business [1][2] - The company plans to launch 24 new projects in key cities in the second half of the year, supported by ample and high-quality land reserves, which is expected to provide solid support for sales recovery [1][3] - The overall performance is under pressure due to the adjustment in the real estate industry, but non-development business shows resilient growth [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 83.2 billion, down 4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 8.6 billion, down 17% year-on-year, which is below previous annual growth expectations of -6% [1][2] - The revenue from development business decreased by 5% to RMB 78 billion, with a gross profit margin of 15.8%, down 0.5 percentage points from 2024 [2] Market Position - The company achieved a total contract sales amount of RMB 120.2 billion in the first half of 2025, ranking second in the industry, with first place in 14 cities and top three in 31 cities [3] - The company acquired 17 new land parcels during the period, with a total land acquisition amount of RMB 40.4 billion, up 213% year-on-year, maintaining a focus on core areas [3] Financing and Cost Management - As of the end of the first half of 2025, the company had interest-bearing liabilities of RMB 227.5 billion, down 5.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 4.9 times [4] - The average financing cost for the first half of 2025 was 2.9%, and the sales and administrative expense ratio was 3.8%, both remaining at industry low levels [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its revenue and gross margin assumptions for 2025-2027, with EPS estimates revised to RMB 1.39, RMB 1.48, and RMB 1.60 for the respective years [5] - The target price of HKD 19.08 is based on a price-to-book ratio (PB) of 0.49 times, consistent with comparable companies [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of $199 million in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.5%, while operating profit decreased by 56.5% to $3.7 million due to increased labor costs [1][2] - The company aims to enhance customer experience and employee satisfaction, which may temporarily affect operating profit margins but is expected to strengthen the brand and improve operational quality in the long term [1][3] - The company is expanding its store network while focusing on quality, with a total of 126 stores operational as of Q2 2025, including new openings in Malaysia [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, lowering the adjusted net profit estimates by 43%, 21%, and 17% to $30 million, $52 million, and $68 million respectively [4][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was $199 million, with a year-over-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit of $16 million, marking a turnaround from losses due to reduced foreign exchange losses [1][2] - For the first half of 2025, revenue reached $397 million, up 7% year-over-year, with a net profit of $28 million [1] Operational Insights - Same-store sales increased by 5.3% in Q2 2025, with notable performance in East Asia, particularly Japan [2] - The company has introduced a more value-oriented menu, resulting in a gross margin of 66.0%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year [2] Expansion Strategy - The company is actively pursuing its "Pomegranate Plan" to diversify its offerings and enhance customer experience, with over 10 new project tracks identified for future growth [3] - The company plans to continue exploring new markets and types of cuisine, including barbecue and fast food, to establish a second growth curve [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards due to increased operational costs, with a target price set at HKD 17.46, based on a 28x PE ratio for 2026 [4][10] - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of around 67% in the coming years, despite slight adjustments due to rising labor costs [10][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.499 billion CNY for 1H25, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 326 million CNY, up 37.48% year-on-year, with a corresponding net profit margin of 13.0%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on optimizing operational quality and controlling the pace of store expansion, with a net increase of 48 stores in 1H25, bringing the total to 8,444 stores [1] - The company is expected to accelerate store openings in the second half of the year, alongside improvements in operational efficiency and revenue growth [1] Revenue and Profitability - The company's product sales revenue for 1H25 was 2.309 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.78%, while equipment sales revenue decreased by 62.05% to 48 million CNY [2] - The franchise and licensing fee income was 101 million CNY, up 2.37% year-on-year, with non-refundable initial fees contributing 46 million CNY, an increase of 4.97% [2] Gross Margin and New Product Launches - The gross margin for 1H25 was 32.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to supply chain and delivery efficiency improvements [3] - The company launched 55 new products in 1H25, significantly increasing the frequency of new product introductions compared to 21 in 1H24 [3] Store Operations and Expansion - As of the end of 1H25, the company operated 8,444 stores, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, focusing on penetrating lower-tier markets [4] - The company has also been expanding internationally, opening stores in several countries including South Korea, Malaysia, and the United States [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the profit forecast for the company, projecting net profits of 892 million CNY, 1.003 billion CNY, and 1.142 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.60, 0.68, and 0.77 CNY [5] - The target price is set at 12.11 HKD, reflecting a valuation premium based on the company's growth potential [5]

2025 年 09 月 01 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 煤价下降&风电并表装机增长， 公司业绩稳健增长 ——中国电力（02380）动态点评报告 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/08/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 中国电力 | -0.9% | 2.7% | -5.9% | | 恒生指数 | -1.8% | 6.4% | 41.0% | | 市场数据 | 2025/08/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（港元） | 3.13 | | 周价格区间（港元） 52 | 2.73-4.00 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 38,718.57 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 38,718.57 | | 总股本（万股） | 1,237,015.10 | | 流通股本（万股） | 1,237,015.10 | | 日均成交额（百万港元） | 62.69 | | 近一月换手（%） | 0.23 | 研究所： 证券分析师： 钟琪 S0350523080002 zhong ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company's performance has shifted from profit to loss, primarily due to supply-demand mismatches in the industry and intensified competition leading to prices falling below cash costs. However, recent government initiatives aimed at reducing competition have shown early positive results, suggesting a potential rebound in performance as supply-side reforms continue [2]. - The average cash production cost of granular silicon has been decreasing, reaching 26.22 RMB/kg in the first half of 2025, with a further reduction to 25.31 RMB/kg in Q2 2025. The quality of products has significantly improved, with 91.8% of products meeting the standard of total metal impurities ≤1 ppbw, and the proportion of products with turbidity ≤70 NTU increasing from 25% in September 2024 to 57.4% in Q2 2025 [3]. - The company has successfully launched a GW-level perovskite production line, marking a significant milestone in the commercialization of perovskite photovoltaic technology. This project is noted for achieving several global records, including the largest single-junction and tandem perovskite modules and the highest efficiency for large-sized modules [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 12.594 billion RMB, 21.309 billion RMB, and 24.398 billion RMB, respectively. Net profits are expected to be -2.375 billion RMB in 2025, 838 million RMB in 2026, and 2.189 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a recovery in profitability [5][7]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in the company's market share, which was 24.32% in the first half of 2025, up 9.74 percentage points from the previous year, as the photovoltaic industry undergoes capacity clearing and the company continues to lower production costs [3][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianhong International Group is "Outperform the Market" [5][20]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight revenue decline of 1.9% year-on-year to 11.03 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, primarily due to lower product prices, but its profitability continued to improve with a net profit increase of 55.2% to 420 million yuan [1][3]. - The gross profit margin improved by 1.0 percentage point to 14.2%, attributed to enhanced operational efficiency and flexible raw material procurement strategies [1][20]. - The company is a leading global cotton yarn producer, and its debt structure has been optimized due to reduced bank borrowings, resulting in a debt-to-asset ratio decrease of 2.6 percentage points to 51.4% [1][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the yarn sales volume increased by 3.6% to 385,000 tons, while yarn revenue decreased by 2.2% to 8.62 billion yuan due to price declines [2]. - The gross margin for yarn improved by 1.4 percentage points to 13.9% due to increased order volume and capacity utilization [2]. - The woven fabric business saw a significant growth of 17.0% in sales volume to 51 million meters, driven by inventory replenishment ahead of tariff changes [2]. - The knitted fabric segment faced challenges, with sales volume dropping by 33.5% to 3,840 tons and revenue declining by 37.8% to 186 million yuan [2]. Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected net profits of 720 million, 770 million, and 970 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30.3%, 6.9%, and 25.5% [3][21]. - The target price has been raised to 5.1-5.9 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 6-7x for 2025 [3][20]. - The company is expected to maintain a gross margin of 13.1% in 2025, with net profit margins projected at 3.1% [18][21]. Market Position and Strategy - The management plans to sell 400,000 tons of yarn, 50 million meters of woven fabric, and 3,000 tons of knitted fabric in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The company benefits from a local supply chain and quick response capabilities, positioning it well for future market leadership [20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][6]. Core Views - Alibaba's total revenue for FY2026 Q1 reached 247.65 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2%, while non-GAAP net profit was approximately 35.3 billion RMB, a decrease of 12% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights strong growth in the e-commerce segment, particularly in instant retail, which saw a revenue increase of 12% year-on-year, driven by the growth of "Taobao Flash Purchase" orders [1][2]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 26% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue achieving triple-digit growth for eight consecutive quarters, accounting for over 20% of external revenue [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: - FY2026 Q1 total revenue: 247.65 billion RMB, up 2% YoY [1]. - Projected revenues for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 1,055.36 billion RMB, 1,115.16 billion RMB, and 1,167.26 billion RMB respectively [3][5]. - **Net Profit**: - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026 Q1: 35.3 billion RMB, down 12% YoY [1]. - Projected non-GAAP net profits for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 129.40 billion RMB, 171.96 billion RMB, and 216.76 billion RMB respectively [3][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - Latest diluted EPS for FY2024: 7.8 RMB, projected to be 6.8 RMB for FY2026 and 11.3 RMB for FY2028 [5][12]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Projected P/E ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are 15.7, 11.8, and 9.3 respectively [5][12]. Business Segment Performance - **E-commerce**: - Revenue from Chinese e-commerce reached 1,401 billion RMB, a 10% increase YoY, with adjusted EBITA of approximately 384 billion RMB, down 21% YoY [1]. - **International Business**: - International business revenue was 347 billion RMB, up 19% YoY, with adjusted EBITA loss narrowing to approximately 0.06 billion RMB [1]. - **Alibaba Cloud**: - Revenue of 334 billion RMB, a 26% increase YoY, with adjusted EBITA of approximately 30 billion RMB, also up 26% YoY [1]. - **Other Businesses**: - Other business segments generated 586 billion RMB in revenue, down 28% YoY, with adjusted EBITA loss widening to 14 billion RMB [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD Electronics, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [4][6]. Core Insights - BYD Electronics reported a steady revenue growth of 806.06 billion RMB for H1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 2.58%, with a net profit of 17.30 billion RMB, reflecting a 13.97% increase year-over-year [2][3]. - The company is actively transitioning towards the electric vehicle (EV) and AI-related businesses, expanding its capabilities in emerging sectors such as AI servers and smart products [3][4]. - The automotive sector, particularly in smart cockpit systems and intelligent driving assistance, has shown significant growth, with the EV business being the only segment to achieve positive growth during the reporting period [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the revenue breakdown by business segment is as follows: Consumer Electronics at 609.47 billion RMB (down 3.72% YOY), New Energy Vehicles at 124.50 billion RMB (up 60.50% YOY), and New Intelligent Products at 72.09 billion RMB (down 4.15% YOY) [2][3]. - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 6.88%, with a net margin of 2.15%, both showing slight improvements year-over-year [2][3]. - The forecasted revenue for 2025-2027 is projected to be 1982.11 billion RMB, 2189.29 billion RMB, and 2429.56 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding net profits of 52.71 billion RMB, 64.47 billion RMB, and 76.32 billion RMB [4][5].

最近一年走势 2025 年 09 月 01 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 张钰莹 S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 优必选：从 Walker S1 到未来，人形机器人 PK 的是什么？ ——优必选（09880）公司深度研究 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | 2025/08/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 优必选 | 4.8% | 11.1% | 7.3% | | 恒生指数 | -1.8% | 6.4% | 41.0% | 人形机器人被视为工业 4.0 核心载体，GGII 预测全球市场规模 2030 年 达 200 亿美元，参考中国服务机器人市场约占全球市场 25%的数值测算， 中国市场规模将达 50 亿美元。据《制造业人才发展规划指南》，2025 年中国制造业工人缺口将达 3000 万，缺口率高达 48%，劳动力短缺与 成本上升推动人形机器人需求持续释放。公司以工业版人形机器人为核 心战略重点，Walker S 系列持续迭代，深耕汽 ...