2025 年 6 月 3 日 公司研究 百尺竿头更进一步，从单品牌单平台向多品牌全渠道集团化蜕变 ——上美股份（2145.HK）投资价值分析报告 要点 上美股份：一鸣惊人、品类全面的多品牌化妆品集团 上美股份前身上海卡卡化妆品有限公司成立于 2004 年、2015 年更名、2022 年 于港股上市，是一家多品牌化妆品公司，覆盖护肤品、母婴护理产品、洗护个护 产品以及彩妆产品，目前旗下拥有韩束、一叶子、红色小象、一页（new page） 等多个品牌。其中主品牌韩束成立时间最早、于 2003 年推出，目前已成为 2024 年线上渠道 GMV 美妆国货品牌第二名、按增速计为头部美妆品牌增速第一名。 公司抓住了抖音平台的发展机遇，2023~2024 年业绩高速增长，2022~2024 年 收入、归母净利润年复合增速分别为 59.3%/130.5%；2024 年公司实现营业收 入 67.93 亿元，同比增长 62.1%，归母净利润 7.81 亿元，同比增长 69.4%。 行业分析：化妆品行业增长和竞争并存，下沉市场、细分赛道蕴藏机遇 中国化妆品行业规模增速 2020 年开始呈现波动，2024 年行业规模为 5372 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 8.00 per share, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HKD 6.41 [5][10]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 decreased by 19% year-on-year to HKD 81.40 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 22.07% to HKD 19.02 billion, primarily due to poor wind resources and rising operating expenses [7][8]. - The company plans to start new renewable energy projects totaling 5.5 GW in 2025, with 5 GW expected to be operational, including 3.2 GW from wind and 1.7 GW from solar [3][8]. - The company holds high-quality existing assets that ensure stable performance, benefiting from favorable regulatory conditions in regions like Shandong and Guangdong, which support the profitability of existing projects [4][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a total generation of 202.86 billion kWh, a decrease of 4.42% year-on-year, but a growth of 8.81% when excluding the impact of thermal power divestiture. Wind power generation increased by 4.37% [7][8]. - The company’s operating expenses rose by 14% year-on-year, driven by higher depreciation, labor, and maintenance costs [7]. Project Development - As of March 2025, the company’s total installed capacity reached 41.15 million kW, with wind power accounting for 30.44 million kW and solar power approximately 10.70 million kW. The company has secured development indicators for 14.72 GW, including 6.37 GW for wind and 8.35 GW for solar [3][8]. Asset Quality - The company is positioned as a leader in the wind power sector, with a significant share of high-quality existing assets. The stability of revenue from these assets is expected to provide a competitive advantage in market transactions [4][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The core local business of Meituan has shown excellent profit release, with a revenue of 866 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing an 18% year-on-year growth. The adjusted net profit reached 109 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13%, up 3 percentage points [1][9] - The company is expected to increase subsidies starting Q2 2025 to maintain its competitive edge amid rising competition, particularly in the food delivery segment [2][19] - The flash purchase business has seen a 30% increase in order volume year-on-year, with a historical high in profit margins, and the company plans to enhance subsidies to expand market reach [3][22] - The in-store business is experiencing strong growth, particularly in lower-tier cities, with a 33% increase in GTV year-on-year [4][23] - New business segments, particularly overseas food delivery, are actively expanding, with a 19% increase in revenue year-on-year, although operating losses have also increased [27] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved a revenue of 866 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The core local business generated 643 billion yuan in revenue, also up 18% year-on-year. The operating profit for the core local business was 135 billion yuan, a 39% increase year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 21% [1][9][17] Business Segments - The food delivery segment saw a 10% increase in order volume year-on-year, with a revenue growth of 14%. The average order value (AOV) decline has continued to narrow [2][19] - The flash purchase segment's revenue grew approximately 33%, with operating profit reaching 800 million yuan [3][22] - The in-store business's revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding in lower-tier cities [4][23] Future Outlook - The company maintains a positive long-term outlook, expecting adjusted net profits of 447 billion yuan, 587 billion yuan, and 718 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][29] - The competitive landscape is anticipated to remain challenging, but Meituan's operational capabilities and compliance improvements are expected to support sustainable growth [7][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with revenue of 111.3 billion yuan (yoy +47.4%) and Non-GAAP net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (yoy +64.5%) [5][6] - The IoT business continues to show strong growth, driven by major appliances, with revenue of 32.3 billion yuan (yoy +58.7%) [6] - The automotive business is expected to see an increase in sales and profitability with the upcoming launch of the YU7 model [6][7] - The smartphone segment shows improvement in gross margin and average selling price (ASP), with ASP reaching 1,211 yuan (yoy +5.8%) [7] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Overall performance: Revenue of 111.3 billion yuan (yoy +47.4%), exceeding BBG expectations by 2.1%; Non-GAAP net profit of 10.7 billion yuan (yoy +64.5%), exceeding BBG expectations by 17.7% [5] - Business breakdown: - Mobile business: Revenue of 50.6 billion yuan (yoy +8.9%), gross margin of 12.4% [5] - IoT business: Revenue of 32.3 billion yuan (yoy +58.7%), gross margin of 25.2% [5] - Internet business: Revenue of 9.1 billion yuan (yoy +12.8%), gross margin of 76.9% [5] - Smart automotive and innovative business: Revenue of 18.6 billion yuan, gross margin of 23.2% [5] IoT Business Growth - Driven by major appliances, IoT revenue reached 32.3 billion yuan (yoy +58.7%), with significant growth in air conditioning, refrigerators, and washing machines [6] - The gross margin for IoT improved to 25.2%, up 5.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - A new smart appliance factory is expected to start production in November 2025, aiming for an annual output of 3 million air conditioners by 2026 [6] Automotive Business Outlook - Automotive revenue for Q1 2025 was 18.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.2% [6] - The YU7 model is set to launch in July 2025, featuring advanced technology and expected to drive sales growth [6][7] Smartphone Segment Performance - The smartphone gross margin improved to 12.4%, with ASP reaching a historical high of 1,211 yuan [7] - Market share in the high-end smartphone segment has increased, particularly in the 4,000-5,000 yuan price range [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 482.7 billion yuan, 612.7 billion yuan, and 713.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.9%, 26.9%, and 16.5% [8] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same years are 41.2 billion yuan, 56.9 billion yuan, and 69.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of 51.3%, 38.1%, and 22.9% [8]

2025 年 6 月 3 日 公司研究 百尺竿头更进一步，从单品牌单平台向多品牌全渠道集团化蜕变 ——上美股份（2145.HK）投资价值分析报告 要点 上美股份：一鸣惊人、品类全面的多品牌化妆品集团 上美股份前身上海卡卡化妆品有限公司成立于 2004 年、2015 年更名、2022 年 于港股上市，是一家多品牌化妆品公司，覆盖护肤品、母婴护理产品、洗护个护 产品以及彩妆产品，目前旗下拥有韩束、一叶子、红色小象、一页（new page） 等多个品牌。其中主品牌韩束成立时间最早、于 2003 年推出，目前已成为 2024 年线上渠道 GMV 美妆国货品牌第二名、按增速计为头部美妆品牌增速第一名。 公司抓住了抖音平台的发展机遇，2023~2024 年业绩高速增长，2022~2024 年 收入、归母净利润年复合增速分别为 59.3%/130.5%；2024 年公司实现营业收 入 67.93 亿元，同比增长 62.1%，归母净利润 7.81 亿元，同比增长 69.4%。 行业分析：化妆品行业增长和竞争并存，下沉市场、细分赛道蕴藏机遇 中国化妆品行业规模增速 2020 年开始呈现波动，2024 年行业规模为 5372 亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [7] Core Views - The company is transitioning from a financial investment strategy to an industrial investment holding group, focusing on new energy and new technology sectors, aligning with national policy directions and market trends [4][12][15] - The company has successfully restructured its capital and improved its financial health, with a significant reduction in debt-to-asset ratio from approximately 78% in 2021 to about 65% in 2023, and projected to further decrease to around 60% in 2024 [4][6][24] - The company has established a strong synergy between its green energy and data center businesses, aiming to create a digital economy ecosystem that integrates AI computing power, data assets, and application scenarios [7][15][23] Summary by Sections 1. Transition to Industrial Investment Holding Group - The company has shifted its focus from short-term financial investments to long-term industrial investments, particularly in new energy and technology sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [4][12] - The company has increased its stake in Shandong High-speed New Energy to 60.66%, enhancing its control and position in the renewable energy market [12][15] 2. New Energy Sector - The company has received significant funding, including approximately HKD 47 billion from its own group and additional support from national clean energy subsidies, which has improved the capital structure of its subsidiary, Shandong High-speed New Energy [4][12] - The company is actively involved in various renewable energy projects, including wind and solar initiatives, with a total capacity exceeding 1GW planned for the next two years [4][5] 3. New Infrastructure and Data Center Development - The company has strategically invested in Century Internet, a leading digital infrastructure provider, to enhance its capabilities in the data center sector [4][12] - A significant project in Ulanqab City aims to integrate green power with intelligent computing, with a total investment of approximately CNY 21 billion [5][12] 4. Financial Performance and Projections - The company has shown a strong revenue growth trajectory, with projected revenues of CNY 58.84 billion, CNY 67.85 billion, and CNY 74.99 billion for 2025 to 2027, respectively [7][27] - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 1.38 billion, CNY 2.24 billion, and CNY 3.47 billion for the same period, reflecting a robust growth rate [7][27]

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 中国通信服务（00552.HK） 中国综合智慧服务龙头，AI 大模型浪潮点燃增长新引擎 TMT 及中小盘/通信 ❑ 风险提示：电信业资本开支下降风险、营运资金需求增加的风险、国际业务 运营及有关风险、算力资本支出不及预期风险、战略新兴产业发展风险。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 149139 | 150536 | 154438 | 159884 | 166007 | | 同比增长 | 6% | 1% | 3% | 4% | 4% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2849 | 3057 | 3244 | 3382 | 3553 | | 同比增长 | 16% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 5% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 3584 | 3607 | 3731 | 3901 | 4105 | | 同比增长 | 7% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 5% | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [7] Core Views - The company is transitioning from a financial investment strategy to an industrial investment holding group, focusing on new energy and new technology sectors, aligning with national policy directions and market trends [4][12][15] - The company has successfully restructured its capital and improved its financial health, with a significant reduction in debt-to-asset ratio from approximately 78% in 2021 to about 65% in 2023, and further projected to decrease to around 60% in 2024 [4][6][24] - The company has established a strong synergy between its green energy and data center businesses, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [7][15] Summary by Sections 1. Transition to Industrial Investment Holding Group - The company has shifted its focus from short-term financial investments to long-term industrial investments, particularly in new energy and technology sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [4][12] - The company has increased its stake in Shandong High-speed New Energy to 60.66% by 2025, reinforcing its control and commitment to the renewable energy market [12][23] 2. New Energy Sector - The company has received significant funding, including approximately HKD 47 billion from its parent group and additional government subsidies, which have improved the capital structure of its subsidiary, Shandong High-speed New Energy [4][5] - The company is actively involved in various renewable energy projects, including wind and solar initiatives, with a total capacity exceeding 1GW planned for the next two years [4][5] 3. New Infrastructure and Data Center Development - The company has strategically invested in Century Internet, a leading digital infrastructure provider, to enhance its capabilities in the data center sector [4][7] - A significant project in collaboration with Ulanqab City aims to integrate green energy and data computing, with a total investment of approximately CNY 21 billion [5][7] 4. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company has shown a robust growth trajectory, with projected revenues of CNY 58.84 billion in 2025, and net profits expected to reach CNY 1.38 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 155% [7][27] - The company’s net profit margin has improved significantly, with a forecasted net profit of CNY 3.47 billion by 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [7][32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Meituan's total revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.3% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 12.3 billion yuan, up 52% year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 6.2% [4] - Adjusted net profit was 10.9 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-over-year, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations by 12.6% [4] - Core local business revenue was 64.3 billion yuan, also up 18% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 1.5% [4] - New business revenue was 22.2 billion yuan, a 19% increase year-over-year, also above expectations by 1.4% [4] Summary by Sections Business Performance - Meituan's food delivery and flash purchase businesses have improved user engagement and purchase frequency through refined operations [5] - The food delivery segment has introduced differentiated products to meet diverse consumer needs and has implemented safety measures to enhance food safety transparency [5] - Flash purchase services have seen significant growth across various consumer categories, with transaction volumes tripling in certain areas [5] International Expansion - Keeta, a subsidiary, is expanding internationally, having entered the Saudi Arabian market and recently announced plans to enter Brazil with a commitment to invest 1 billion USD over the next five years [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 386.3 billion, 454.3 billion, and 526.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 18%, and 16% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are 38.4 billion, 49.9 billion, and 60.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of -12%, 30%, and 22% respectively [7] Long-term Outlook - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on Meituan's operational capabilities and business barriers, emphasizing the company's strong execution in the retail sector [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q1 2025, Meituan's total revenue reached 86.6 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 18%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.3% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA was 12.3 billion yuan, up 52% year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 6.2% [4] - Adjusted net profit was 10.9 billion yuan, a 46% increase year-over-year, significantly surpassing Bloomberg consensus expectations by 12.6% [4] - Core local business revenue was 64.3 billion yuan, also up 18% year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.5% [4] - New business revenue was 22.2 billion yuan, a 19% year-over-year increase, also above Bloomberg consensus expectations by 1.4% [4] Summary by Sections Business Performance - Meituan's food delivery and flash purchase businesses have improved user stickiness and purchase frequency through refined operations [5] - The food delivery segment has introduced differentiated products to meet diverse consumer needs and has implemented measures to enhance food safety [5] - Flash purchase has seen significant growth across various consumer categories, with transaction volume increasing nearly threefold in recent months [5] International Expansion - Keeta, a subsidiary, is expanding internationally, having entered the Brazilian market with a commitment to invest 1 billion USD over the next five years [6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 386.3 billion, 454.3 billion, and 526.7 billion yuan, with growth rates of 14%, 18%, and 16% respectively [7] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are 38.4 billion, 49.9 billion, and 60.8 billion yuan, with growth rates of -12%, 30%, and 22% respectively [7] Long-term Outlook - The report maintains a positive long-term outlook on Meituan's operational capabilities and business barriers, emphasizing its "extreme execution" in retail exploration [7]