化学制药 | 总股本(百万股) | 2,595.70 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,595.70 | | 市价(港元) | 11.42 | | 市值(百万港元) | 29,642.87 | | 流通市值(百万港元) | 29,642.87 | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740524070001 Email：muys@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | --- | | 评级： | 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | 营业收入（百万元） | | 6,640 | 6,635 | 7,690 | 9,009 | 10,427 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | | 4% | 0% | 16% | 17% | 16% | | ...

可灵 3.0 有望进一步推进技术前沿 买入（维持） 核心观点 快手-W 01024.HK 公司研究 | 动态跟踪 核心观点：1 月初可灵海外出圈后，整个 1 月看收入和 DAU 端都保持相对高位，热度持 续性表现好。目前数据意义在于整体稳在更高水位后，从 1 月初主要在低 ARPU 地区流 量扩圈（如东南亚、中亚等）→高付费能力地区收入震荡爬升，预期后者对可灵 ARR 提升作用更大。此外新一代可灵 3.0 版本内测中，统一架构下工作流衔接性更好，且区 别于竞品的迭代在于原生文本输出，预计进一步推进技术前沿水平。产品层面更侧重于 专业创作各环节提效，若年前能全量使用，有望延续 1 月产品热度，带动需求释放。 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年经调整归母净利润为 204/225/259 亿元。维持此前给予公司 26 年 18xPE 估值，对应合理价值为 4,048 亿 CNY，折合 4,542 亿 HKD（港币兑人 民币汇率 0.891），目标价 104.36 港元/股，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示 宏观消费恢复不及预期，国内商业化效率不及预期，海外业务亏损加大，可 灵技术迭代不及预期 公司主要 ...

证券研究报告 先声药业 (2096 HK) 港股通 SIM0500 获里程碑，年内有望 PoC | 华泰研究 | | 事件点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 04 日│中国香港 | 生物医药 | 目标价(港币): | 19.82 | 2 月 3 日，公司公告其收到艾伯维就 SIM0500 的 4,000 万美元里程碑付款。 该分子临床开发合作进展积极，我们预计其有望年内读出 I 期临床数据。公 司已达成多项 10 亿美元级 BD 出海，创新研发体系与平台技术能力得到验 证。目前公司已授权产品开发进程稳步推进，先必新舌下片、NMTi 载荷 ADC 平台等有望成为下一轮出海重点，公司全球竞争力有望持续兑现。维持"买 入"。 预计临床 I 期开发顺利，有望年内数据读出 SIM0500 是公司自主开发的 BCMA/GPRC5D/CD3 三抗 TCE，于 2025 年 1 月授权艾伯维，现已获 FDA 的 FTD 认定。目前本品处于中美 I 期临床阶段， 国内剂量爬坡持续推进，美国于 2025 年中完成首例患者给药。本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Innovent Biologics, indicating an "Outperform" rating for the stock, expecting a relative return exceeding the benchmark index over the next 12-18 months [18]. Core Insights - In FY25, Innovent achieved total product revenue of approximately CNY 11.9 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 45%, marking the first time the company surpassed the CNY 10 billion milestone [5][6]. - The oncology product portfolio has expanded to 13 products, with core products like Tyvyt® (sintilimab injection) showing steady growth and new products contributing significantly to revenue [6][10]. - The chronic disease segment has seen significant commercialization results, with products such as mazdutide (GLP-1/GCG), tafolecimab (PCSK9), and teprotumumab (IGF-1R) driving revenue growth [7][9]. - In Q4 2025, total product revenue reached approximately CNY 3.3 billion, reflecting a 60% year-on-year increase, with six new drugs included in the National Reimbursement Drug List for 2026 [8][10]. - The company is progressing towards its revenue target of CNY 20 billion by 2027, with ongoing development in oncology, metabolism, autoimmune diseases, and ophthalmology [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total product revenue for FY25 was approximately CNY 11.9 billion, a 45% increase year-on-year [5]. - Q4 2025 revenue was approximately CNY 3.3 billion, a 60% increase year-on-year [8]. Product Development - The oncology portfolio has expanded to 13 products, with core products maintaining steady growth [6]. - Significant commercialization in chronic diseases, with key products accelerating market uptake [7]. Market Position - The company is moving closer to its revenue target of CNY 20 billion by 2027, with a rich pipeline in various therapeutic areas [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [3][6] Core Insights - Geely's sales performance in January slightly exceeded industry expectations, with total sales of 270,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [9] - The company's export sales saw significant growth, with January exports reaching 60,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 121.2% [9] - The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 to be 17.041 billion, 20.604 billion, and 24.318 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a target price of 23.37 HKD [3][5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023-2027 are as follows: 179.204 billion, 240.194 billion, 319.444 billion, 387.363 billion, and 448.685 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5][10] - Operating profit is expected to grow from 3.806 billion yuan in 2023 to 23.173 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 4.3%, 100.8%, 110.0%, 22.2%, and 18.1% [5][10] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 15.3% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2027 [10][11] - The report indicates a significant increase in the net profit attributable to the parent company, with a forecast of 5.308 billion yuan in 2023, rising to 24.318 billion yuan by 2027 [5][10]

本文是由投资/产品专员而非分析师撰写的文章汇编。 它不构成研究报告，也不应被解释为研究报告，也不旨在提供 专业、投资或任何其他类型的建议或推荐。 CSIWM 个股点评 2026 年 2 月 4 日 腾讯控股 本文内容由 Kylie Kwok (郭凯欣) 提供 中信证券财富管理(香港) 产品及投资方案部 中国互联网行业 电话：(852) 2237 9250 / 电邮：wminvestmentsolutions@citics.com.hk 摘要 中信证券财富管理与中信里昂研究观点一致。根据中信里昂研究在 2026 年 2 月 3 日发布的题为《Games keep strong momentum》的报告，腾讯预计将继续交出稳健业绩，2025 年第四季度总收入和调整后 Ebit 同比大幅增长。 分析指出，网络游戏有望带来积极惊喜并实现同比增长，得益于常青游戏的稳健表现以及新爆款游戏《三角洲行动》 的推动。尽管宏观环境疲弱，广告业务预计仍将同比增长，主要受广告技术升级和交易增长的支撑。随着毛利率扩张， 利润预计将继续快于收入增长。分析指出，腾讯在 2026 年有望维持双位数的游戏增长和广告增长，并被视为全球拥 有最优 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Nissin Foods, indicating strong quarterly performance and consistent sales guidance for the fiscal year 2026 [4][5]. Core Insights - Nissin Foods reported robust quarterly results with sales of 213 billion JPY and operating profit of 21.6 billion JPY for Q3 FY2026, exceeding market expectations [4]. - The company’s sales in the U.S. market grew by 5%, marking the first positive growth in five quarters, which contributed to the overall positive market reaction [4]. - Nissin's overseas sales increased by 5.3% to 75.3 billion JPY, with the Americas showing an 8.4% growth, while the Chinese market experienced a decline of 2.3% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 FY2026, Nissin Foods achieved sales of 213.3 billion JPY (up 4.5% year-on-year) and operating profit of 21.6 billion JPY (up 14.6% year-on-year), aligning with market expectations [4]. - The company maintained its full-year guidance, projecting sales of 792 billion JPY (up 2.0% year-on-year) and core operating profit of 68.5 billion JPY (down 18.0% year-on-year) [5]. Business Segments - Nissin's overseas business, including the Americas, China, Asia, and EMEA, reported a sales increase of 5.3% to 75.3 billion JPY, with a notable operating profit margin of 12.8% [5]. - The U.S. market's sales growth was driven by a 3.8% same-store sales increase, while the Brazilian market also saw a 5% increase [5]. Market Position - As of February 3, 2026, Nissin Foods' stock price was 3,253 JPY, with a market capitalization of 5.57 billion USD [10]. - The company has a strong asset base of 812 billion JPY and is focused on maintaining a significant share of its sales from domestic operations [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 92.15 HKD and a target value of 133.47 HKD [3]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the company's revenue for 2025 will reach 365.3 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit loss of 22.5 billion RMB. The company is expected to maintain a strong operational barrier in the takeaway business, despite short-term profit pressures due to competition [6][13]. - The report highlights that the competition in the instant retail business is easing, with a projected order volume growth of 30% for flash purchases in Q4 2025. However, the takeaway business is expected to face continued competition, particularly in high-value orders [6][7][8]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 276.74 billion RMB - 2024: 337.59 billion RMB (growth rate: 25.82%) - 2025: 365.32 billion RMB (growth rate: 8.21%) - 2026: 414.90 billion RMB (growth rate: 13.57%) - 2027: 467.34 billion RMB (growth rate: 12.64%) [6]. - The adjusted net profit forecast indicates losses for 2025 and 2026, with expected losses of 22.5 billion RMB and 7.2 billion RMB, respectively [6][13]. Business Segment Performance - Core local business revenue is projected to be 643.92 billion RMB in Q4 2025, with a year-over-year decline of 1.79% and an operational loss of 111.16 billion RMB [7][9]. - New business revenue is expected to reach 270.46 billion RMB in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-over-year growth, although operational losses are projected at 42.78 billion RMB [8][9]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the company's fair value at 133.47 HKD per share, based on contributions from various business segments including takeaway, in-store travel, flash purchases, and new businesses [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 12.89 per share, indicating a potential upside of 37.2% from the current price of HKD 9.40 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected to rise by 400% to 450% compared to the previous year, driven by strong demand in non-mobile sectors, a focus on high-end products, and gains from the sale of a subsidiary [3][9]. - The product structure of camera modules is being optimized, with a notable increase in average selling prices, reflecting a shift towards high-end camera modules [4][10]. - The non-mobile camera module business is emerging as a new growth driver, with sales in automotive and IoT applications showing substantial growth [5][14]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 198.04 billion (+22.6%), RMB 219.53 billion (+10.9%), and RMB 244.77 billion (+11.5%) respectively, with net profit projections of RMB 14.26 billion (+411%), RMB 9.1 billion (-36.2%), and RMB 10.92 billion (+17.8%) [6][19]. - The average gross margin is expected to improve, reflecting the company's strategic focus on higher-value products [7][19]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its vertical integration in the smart vision system sector, with investments in technology and partnerships aimed at expanding capabilities in smartphones, IoT, and emerging markets [21][20]. - The company has established partnerships with leading automotive brands and smart driving solution providers, indicating a strategic shift towards non-mobile applications [5][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [3][6] Core Views - Geely's sales performance in January slightly exceeded industry expectations, with total sales of 270,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [9] - The company's "oil-electric hybrid" strategy has shown significant results, with January sales of new energy vehicles reaching 124,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [9] - Exports have seen substantial growth, with January exports reaching 60,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 121.2% [9] - The Zeekr brand has achieved success in the high-end market, with Zeekr 9X becoming the best-selling large SUV in its price range [9] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 17.041 billion, 20.604 billion, and 24.318 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a target price of 20.79 yuan (RMB) or 23.37 Hong Kong dollars [3] - Revenue projections for 2023-2027 are 179.204 billion, 240.194 billion, 319.444 billion, 387.363 billion, and 448.685 billion yuan, with growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 21.3%, and 15.8% respectively [5][10] - Operating profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 3.806 billion, 7.644 billion, 16.055 billion, 19.616 billion, and 23.173 billion yuan for the same period [5][10] - The report indicates a consistent improvement in gross margin, projected to reach 17.3% by 2027 [10]