2025 年 4 月 7 日 公司研究 业绩增长保持韧性，分红比例提升至 50% ——保利物业（6049.HK）2024 年度业绩点评 要点 事件：保利物业 2024 年营收同比+8.5%，归母净利润同比+6.8%。 保利物业发布 2024 年度业绩公告，实现收入 163.4 亿元，同比增长 8.5%；毛 利 29.8 亿元，同比增长 1.1%；净利率 9.1%，同比下滑 0.2pct，归母净利润 14.7 亿元，同比增长 6.8%；期末现金及银行结余约 119 亿元，较 2023 年末增加 7.8%。 点评：业务结构调整，增长韧性较强，外拓合同金额创新高，分红比例提升。 1) 业务结构调整，组织结构变革，经营效率有所提升。2024 年公司物业管理/ 非业主增值/社区增值业务分别实现收入 116.7/19.6/27.1 亿元，同比增速为 +15.0%/-6.4%/-3.9%，非业主增值业务、社区增值服务（含家装美居、车位销 售及房屋经纪租赁等地产后周期业务）由于房地产行业持续收缩，发展速度有所 减缓，而基础物管业务则由于在管规模持续扩张，收入保持稳健增长。伴随市场 竞争加剧，公司从组织模式、管理体系与管理工具 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in its 2024 financial results, with total revenue of 28.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.01 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. The overall performance met the upper expectations, and after accounting for a new impairment of investment properties of 0.33 billion, the performance was considered to be above expectations [2][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The gross profit margin improved steadily, with an operating profit margin (OPM) performance exceeding expectations. In 2024, the gross margin increased by 1 percentage point to 49.4%, driven by improvements in e-commerce and direct sales discounts [9] - The OPM for the second half of the year increased by 0.9 percentage points to 8.9%, and when excluding the impairment of investment properties, the OPM increased by 3.3 percentage points to 11.2% [9] Revenue and Growth - The company maintained a healthy growth in channels, with revenue growth aligning closely with sales growth across all channels. The offline new retail accounted for 85% of total sales, and the inventory turnover ratio was stable at four months [9] - The revenue growth trend appears positive, although increased expenses are anticipated. The company expects to see growth in bulk sales, but the divestment of overseas business, which accounts for 2% of total sales, has caused some drag [9] Future Outlook - Short-term revenue growth may be challenging due to significant expense increases related to Olympic sponsorship and associated marketing costs. The company is expected to balance expenses with growth, but short-term revenue growth may not be evident [9] - In the medium to long term, the company is focusing on optimizing operational quality and seeking growth opportunities amid intensified competition. The management has been working on improving operational efficiency, which may lead to a healthier growth trajectory in the future [9]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 2025 年 04 月 07 日 证券分析师 张良卫 执业证书：S0600516070001 021-60199793 zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 速腾聚创（02498.HK） 2024 年业绩点评：业绩符合预期，智驾&机 器人平台化布局有望持续兑现 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1120 | 1649 | 2630 | 4202 | 5253 | | 同比(%) | 111.22 | 47.20 | 59.53 | 59.73 | 25.02 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (4,336.63) | (481.83) | (246.66) | 123.96 | 438.62 | | 同比(%) | (107.63) | 88.89 | 48.81 | 150.25 | 253.86 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (8.98) ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a target price range of HKD 163.40 to HKD 171.91 per share [5][3]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading player in the building block character toy sector, benefiting from the rapid growth of the industry and its own proactive IP matrix development, brand promotion, and channel expansion [3][2]. - The company achieved a GMV of 8.77 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 169%, primarily driven by the successful launch of a series of building block character toys and the expansion of its sales network [15][17]. - The company has established a strong IP matrix with approximately 50 globally recognized IPs, including Ultraman and Transformers, which significantly contribute to its revenue [12][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2014, the company specializes in the research, production, and sales of building block character toys, achieving the highest market share in China's building block character toy industry in 2023 [12][2]. - The company has developed a multi-dimensional IP matrix, with Ultraman accounting for 48.9% of its revenue in 2024 [12][2]. Industry Overview - The Chinese building block character toy market reached a GMV of 5.8 billion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.6% from 2019 to 2023, and is projected to reach 32.5 billion by 2028 [2][45]. - The overseas market for building block character toys is also expanding, with a GMV of 22.1 billion in 2023, expected to grow at a CAGR of 24.9% to 67.1 billion by 2028 [2][45]. Financial Forecast and Metrics - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 22.41 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 155.61%, with a net profit of 1.03 billion expected by 2025 [4][3]. - The overall gross margin is expected to reach 52.6% in 2024, reflecting improvements in production efficiency and scale effects [33][4]. Growth Potential - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the industry's rapid growth, supported by its strong IP matrix and effective supply chain management, which allows for quick product launches and competitive pricing [2][69]. - The increasing consumer demand for emotional and experiential purchases, particularly among younger demographics, presents significant growth opportunities for the company [50][53].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.11 HKD [8][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.45 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, while the adjusted net profit is projected to be 600 million RMB, a decline of 15.6% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in profit is attributed to several factors including increased financial costs and depreciation expenses from new hospital constructions [1]. - For 2025, the adjusted profit is anticipated to rebound with a growth of 16% year-on-year, supported by improved cash flow and cost management [1]. Summary by Sections Hospital Business - The hospital business is projected to generate 4.32 billion RMB in revenue for 2024, with outpatient revenue increasing by 20.8% year-on-year and inpatient revenue by 5.9% year-on-year [2]. - The growth is driven by the performance of mature hospitals and the ramp-up of new facilities, with an expected increase in bed utilization rates [2]. Group Empowerment - The report highlights the positive contributions of Xi'an Chang'an Hospital and Yixing Haijia Hospital to the company's revenue and profit in 2025, with significant increases in surgical cases [3]. Expansion Plans - The company has two new hospitals under construction and four hospitals with expansion plans, aiming to exceed 16,000 beds upon completion [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 is forecasted at 1.13, 1.27, and 1.40 RMB respectively, with a target PE of 18 times for 2025 [5][13]. - The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 4.91 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.80 billion RMB, reflecting a slowdown compared to previous estimates [13][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on its performance relative to the benchmark index [9] Core Viewpoints - The company reported total revenue of 2.306 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] - The total order amount for the fiscal year 2024 reached approximately 3.506 billion RMB, a significant increase of about 49.3% compared to the previous year [1] - The company has introduced AI-enabled investment advisory tools, enhancing its operational capabilities and customer service [1] - Research and development investment amounted to approximately 319 million RMB, accounting for about 13.8% of total revenue, reflecting a 10.9% increase year-on-year [1] - The company has expanded its presence on various social media platforms, achieving over 4.98 million hours of live streaming and attracting approximately 50.05 million followers [1] Financial Summary - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 1.70 RMB, 1.77 RMB, and 1.95 RMB respectively [2][3] - The expected revenue for 2025 is projected to be 3.429 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 49% compared to 2024 [3] - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 764 million RMB, reflecting a substantial increase of 181% from 2024 [3] - The company’s operating income is expected to grow steadily, with a projected revenue of 4.460 billion RMB by 2027 [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating that the stock price is expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 15% [9]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of RMB 2.306 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 272 million [1]. - Total order value for 2024 reached approximately RMB 3.506 billion, a significant increase of about 49.3% compared to the previous year, with a paid user base growing to 181,000, up approximately 149.4% [1]. - The company has enhanced its research and operational capabilities, leveraging AI technologies to improve investment advisory services and operational efficiency [1]. - R&D investment amounted to approximately RMB 319 million, a 10.9% increase year-on-year, accounting for about 13.8% of total revenue [1]. - The company has expanded its presence on various social media platforms, achieving over 49,800 hours of live streaming and attracting approximately 50.05 million followers [1]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 3.429 billion, RMB 3.960 billion, and RMB 4.460 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with expected growth rates of 49%, 16%, and 13% [3]. - Net profit is projected to reach RMB 764 million in 2025, RMB 792 million in 2026, and RMB 874 million in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 181%, 4%, and 10% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.70, RMB 1.77, and RMB 1.95 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][8] Core Insights - The company's performance in the fiscal year 2024 slightly exceeded expectations, driven by brand momentum, continuous product innovation, and channel network expansion. The expectation of rising gold prices is anticipated to accelerate terminal sales, with high growth continuing into fiscal year 2025 [3][8]. - The operating leverage has significantly improved the net profit margin, with a gross margin of 41.16% (down 0.73 percentage points) and an adjusted net profit margin of 17.66% (up 4.29 percentage points). The period expense ratio decreased by 6.08 percentage points to 18.32% [5][8]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand's international presence, leveraging successful operations in the Hong Kong and Macau regions to accelerate store expansion in Singapore and Japan, thereby opening up growth opportunities overseas [5][8]. Financial Summary - In fiscal year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 85.06 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 167.5%. The net profit reached 14.73 billion RMB, up 253.9% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit at 15.02 billion RMB, also up 253.4% [7][8]. - The company’s revenue from physical stores was 74.50 billion RMB (+164.3%), while online platforms contributed 10.55 billion RMB (+192.2%), indicating a slight increase in the proportion of online sales [8]. - The company’s domestic business generated 76.51 billion RMB (+152.95%), while revenue from Hong Kong and Macau reached 8.55 billion RMB (+451.41%) [8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) [5]. Core Views - Horizon Robotics is positioned as a leading provider of intelligent driving solutions, leveraging its extensive mass production experience and innovative product offerings to capitalize on the growing demand in the automotive sector [5][8]. - The company is set to benefit from the upcoming series of new products, particularly the Journey 6 series, which is expected to enhance its market share and revenue growth significantly by 2025 [5][19]. - Strategic partnerships with major automotive manufacturers such as BYD, Volkswagen, and Li Auto are crucial for Horizon's growth, enabling it to expand its influence in both domestic and international markets [5][40][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Intelligent Driving Solutions Provider - Horizon Robotics, founded in 2015, focuses on intelligent driving solutions, integrating algorithms, dedicated software, and processing hardware to create a comprehensive product matrix [8][9]. - The company has shipped over 7 million units of its intelligent driving chips, showcasing its capability in mass production [5][8]. 2. Journey 6 and Full-Scene Intelligent Driving Solutions - The Journey 6 series, launched in April 2024, represents a significant upgrade in Horizon's product line, designed to meet diverse intelligent driving needs with a scalable architecture [19][21]. - The Journey 6 series offers a computing power range from 10 TOPS to 560 TOPS, catering to various levels of intelligent driving applications [21][22]. 3. Flexible Cooperation Model - Horizon employs a flexible cooperation model, including IP licensing, computing solutions, and joint development, to meet the diverse needs of its clients [5][36]. - The company has established significant partnerships with leading automotive manufacturers, enhancing its market presence and revenue potential [5][40][42]. 4. Industry Opportunities - The intelligent driving sector is poised for rapid growth, driven by initiatives from major players like BYD and Tesla, which are expected to accelerate the adoption of intelligent driving technologies [5][44]. - Horizon holds a leading market share of 33.97% in the domestic intelligent driving computing solutions market, positioning it well to capitalize on the industry's expansion [44]. 5. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Horizon's revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected net profits of -2.2 billion, -1.4 billion, and 0.5 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][4]. - The report suggests that Horizon's innovative product cycle and favorable market conditions will enhance its profitability in the coming years [5][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][15]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 7.47 billion for 2024, a decrease of 6.8% year-on-year, with pharmaceutical sales revenue at RMB 8.62 billion, down 9.0% [11][12]. - The impact of volume-based procurement (VBP) on existing products has largely been digested, with significant sales declines in certain product lines, while innovative products are showing growth [12][14]. - The company has made substantial progress in innovative drug development, with five products already commercialized and additional candidates in various stages of clinical trials [13][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was RMB 7,469 million, down 12% from the previous year, with a projected recovery to RMB 8,326 million in 2025, representing an 11% increase [3][7]. - Net profit for 2024 was RMB 1,620 million, a decline of 32% year-on-year, with an expected increase to RMB 1,671 million in 2025, reflecting a 4% growth [3][7]. - The gross margin decreased to 72.6%, primarily due to price reductions from VBP, while R&D expenditure rose to RMB 890 million, accounting for 11.9% of total revenue [11][12]. Product Line Performance - Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products generated RMB 4.09 billion in sales, down 18.8%, while dermatology and aesthetic medicine products grew by 18.2% to RMB 670 million [12][14]. - The three VBP products achieved revenue of RMB 2.69 billion, down 28.8% year-on-year, indicating that the short-term impact of centralized procurement has largely played out [12][14]. Innovation and Pipeline - The company has five innovative drugs commercialized, with two additional products submitted for NDA approval, including a potential blockbuster [13][14]. - Over ten clinical-stage innovative programs are progressing, including treatments for various conditions such as stroke and obesity [13][14]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to RMB 8.37 billion and RMB 9.44 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 11.5% and 13.3% [14][15]. - The target price is maintained at HKD 9.96 per share, corresponding to a 14x PE for 2025 [15].