Workflow
The Effects of Regulating Platfom-based Work on Employment Outcomes
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-31 23:08
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for tailored regulatory frameworks to protect digital platform workers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) [3][6][7]. - It highlights the importance of addressing market power asymmetries, information asymmetries, and competition barriers to improve employment outcomes for platform workers [20][12][19]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Digital platform work is defined as task- or gig-based work facilitated through digital marketplaces, connecting workers with clients [14]. - The global employment share of digital platform work is estimated to be between 4.4% and 12.5% of the labor force, excluding location-based services [15]. Interventions and Findings - **Market Power Asymmetries**: The report discusses the monopsony power of platforms, which can lead to underpayment and restricted flexibility for workers. Regulatory responses may include minimum wage policies and strengthening workers' bargaining power [20][21]. - **Information Asymmetries**: Employers often have more information than workers, which can hinder workers' ability to find suitable jobs. The report suggests improving transparency and access to information about employers [28]. - **Competition Barriers**: The competitive environment of platforms affects the treatment of workers. The report notes a lack of empirical evidence on the effects of addressing competition barriers [12][32]. - **Social Insurance**: There is a low coverage of social insurance among digital platform workers. Policymakers are encouraged to leverage platform data to extend social insurance coverage [11][17]. Recommendations - Policymakers should consider a combination of labor market regulations, product market regulations, and social protection measures to effectively support digital platform workers [12][19]. - The report calls for more research to understand the preferences of digital platform workers regarding social benefits and protections [13].
Confronting the Learning Crisis
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-31 23:08
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The World Bank has played a significant role in raising awareness and sharing knowledge about the learning crisis, particularly through its data and analytics, which have defined learning poverty and encouraged stakeholder engagement [17][30] - The World Bank is well-positioned to address the learning crisis due to its relationships with governments and its status as the largest external education funder, although its support could be more strategically focused [18][50] - The evaluation highlights the need for better monitoring and evaluation of learning outcomes, as many projects focus on outputs rather than the actual changes in teaching and learning [19][40] Summary by Sections Overview - The World Bank has helped build awareness and convene global stakeholders around quality basic education, emphasizing the importance of addressing the learning crisis [17] - The report identifies that the World Bank's financing for basic education typically tracks inputs and outputs, with limited assessment of changes in systems and learning outcomes [19][34] Learning Crisis Context - Learning poverty was reported at 91% in low-income countries before the COVID-19 pandemic, worsening since then [21] - The report emphasizes that improving learning for all is more complex and costly than merely increasing access to education [23][25] Evaluation Findings - The evaluation assesses the World Bank's contribution to improving learning outcomes in basic education from 2012 to 2022, focusing on the adoption of a systems approach [26][50] - The World Bank's portfolio for basic education operations during this period totaled $25 billion, with a concentration in the Africa Region [34] Recommendations - The report recommends developing country-specific education engagement plans that include systems-based enhancements to the teaching framework [58] - It also suggests collaborating with global and country partners to close data gaps on learning outcomes and track progress in ending learning poverty [60][71]
Jordan Economic Monitor Strength Amidst Strain
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-31 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Jordanian economy or specific sectors within it. Core Insights - Jordan's economy demonstrated resilience in 2023, achieving a GDP growth of 2.7 percent, up from 2.6 percent in 2022, with broad-based growth across manufacturing, services, and agriculture [12][18] - The unemployment rate declined to 22.0 percent in 2023 from 22.8 percent in the previous year, with a stable rate of 21.4 percent in Q1-2024 [12][14] - Inflation decelerated significantly to 2.1 percent in 2023, down from an average of 4.2 percent in 2022, and is expected to remain contained in 2024 [12][14] - The current account deficit narrowed to 3.7 percent of GDP in 2023, down from 7.8 percent in 2022, supported by a surge in tourism receipts [12][14] - The fiscal deficit of the central government narrowed to 5.1 percent of GDP in 2023, aided by lower expenditure [12][14] Recent Economic Developments - Economic growth continued to decelerate due to the conflict in the Middle East, with real GDP growth slowing to 2.0 percent in Q1-2024 [12][18] - Manufacturing growth reached a record high, contributing significantly to GDP growth, while the services sector, particularly restaurants and hotels, also performed well [12][18] - Labor market outcomes remained weak, with labor force participation declining to 33.2 percent in 2023 [12][18] - The external sector improved markedly, with a notable increase in tourism receipts contributing to the narrowing of the current account deficit [12][14] Outlook and Risks - The medium-term outlook for Jordan's economy is weighed down by uncertainties surrounding the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which could adversely impact trade and tourism [14][16] - Fiscal consolidation is expected to proceed slowly, with the primary fiscal deficit anticipated to narrow further in 2024 [12][14] - The report highlights potential risks to economic stability from broader disruptions due to the conflict, affecting trade, oil prices, and consumer behavior [14][16]
Turning a corner: The State of Grocery Retail 2024
麦肯锡· 2024-10-31 00:08
Investment Rating - The report indicates an optimistic outlook for the South African grocery sector, suggesting it is potentially turning a corner after several challenging years [3][55]. Core Insights - The grocery retail market in South Africa has faced sustained pressure due to macroeconomic challenges, but early signs of recovery are emerging in 2024, with consumers showing increased interest in premium products and convenience [3][5][55]. - The report identifies several growth opportunities, including the rise of online grocery shopping, the expansion of discount formats, and the application of AI in retail operations [6][55]. Summary by Sections Global Context - The global grocery sector has been under pressure from inflation and economic uncertainty, but there are signs of recovery as consumer confidence begins to return [8][9]. - In South Africa, 87% of consumers reported feeling economic pressure, but there are indications that consumer behavior is shifting towards premium products [8][19]. South Africa's Grocery Market - The grocery market in South Africa is showing signs of recovery, with a notable shift in consumer behavior towards premium and healthier products [5][29]. - Discount retailers are growing rapidly, with a combined annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% from 2019 to 2023, significantly outpacing the total market [20][22]. Implications for Grocery Players - Retailers are encouraged to strengthen their product assortments, leverage AI for operational efficiency, and explore new growth avenues such as retail media networks and eB2B platforms [55][61]. - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly the growing demand for health and sustainability in food products [39][56]. Trends Shaping the Market - Eight key trends are identified, including the rise of discounters, the growth of online grocery shopping, and the increasing importance of health and organic products [18][39]. - The food-to-go segment is experiencing significant growth, driven by consumer demand for convenience [32][37]. Consumer Behavior - There is a notable decline in the intention to save among consumers, suggesting a potential shift towards spending on premium products [30][36]. - High-income consumers are increasingly focused on healthy eating, with 70% indicating a desire to prioritize nutrition in 2024 [39][41]. Technology and Innovation - AI is seen as a critical tool for differentiation in the grocery sector, with traditional AI still accounting for the majority of value creation [42][46]. - Retail media networks are expected to grow significantly, providing new revenue opportunities for grocery retailers [49][50].
Overcoming the European tech IPO challenge
麦肯锡· 2024-10-31 00:08
Investment Rating - The report indicates a significant economic disadvantage for Europe in the tech IPO market compared to the US, suggesting a need for strategic improvements to enhance competitiveness and economic growth [2][4]. Core Insights - Europe has experienced a substantial economic loss due to tech companies opting for US listings, with a total capital raised through IPOs in the US being approximately 340 billion USD more than in Europe from 2015 to 2023 [7][9]. - The average market capitalization of tech IPOs in Europe is significantly lower than that in the US, with a ratio of 11.6 times higher for US tech IPOs [9][11]. - The fragmented nature of European capital markets is a key factor driving companies to list in the US, highlighting the need for a more unified and tech-focused exchange in Europe [2][58]. Summary by Sections Economic Disadvantage - Europe has a lower IPO market capitalization compared to the US, resulting from fewer listings and lower valuations at listing [2][4]. - The total market cap of tech companies at IPO in the US is 1,654 billion USD, while in Europe it is only 142 billion USD [11][9]. Venture Capital Landscape - Venture capital funding in Europe is underdeveloped, accounting for only 1.0% of GDP compared to 1.5% in the US [6]. - The report emphasizes that venture capital historically shows attractive long-term returns and is a key driver for economic growth [5]. IPO Market Performance - From 2015 to 2023, European tech IPOs raised significantly less capital than their US counterparts, with European companies raising only 22% of their total valuation through IPOs compared to 27% in the US [7][10]. - The average yearly tech IPO value in the US is substantially higher, with a peak valuation of 901 billion USD compared to 93 billion USD in Europe [10][11]. Market Fragmentation - The European stock market is characterized by a fragmented structure with 35 different exchanges, compared to only three major exchanges in the US [58]. - The lack of a centralized "European Tech company hub" contributes to the challenges faced by European companies in attracting international investors [58][61].
Connecting Social Protection, Labor Market Interventions and Fisheries Management in Viet Nam
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-30 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the fisheries sector in Vietnam Core Insights - Vietnam's fisheries sector is facing significant challenges, including declining fish stocks and vulnerabilities among workers, necessitating a multifaceted approach for sustainable development [1][6][7] - The integration of social protection and labor market policies is essential to support sustainable fisheries and enhance the resilience of communities dependent on this sector [7][18] Summary by Sections Introduction - Vietnam is a leading producer and exporter of aquatic products, with aquaculture contributing 57% of total production and 75% of total revenues [5][6] - Over 7 million people rely on livelihoods from the capture fisheries sector, with marine fisheries being a significant source of employment [5][6] Country Context - The marine economy contributes approximately 30% to Vietnam's national GDP, with fisheries and aquaculture accounting for 3.4% [10] - The fisheries sector is under pressure from overfishing, climate change, and illegal fishing practices, which threaten its sustainability and competitiveness [6][15] Social Protection and Labor Policies - Vietnam's social protection system has evolved but remains fragmented, with significant gaps in coverage, particularly for informal workers in the fisheries sector [18][19] - Social assistance spending is low, at around 0.86% of GDP, and only 3.5% of the population is covered by social insurance [19][22] Data and Methodology - The analysis utilizes data from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) and the Vietnam Labor Force Survey (LFS) to assess socioeconomic vulnerability in the fisheries sector [30][31] Main Findings - The demographic profile indicates that fishing and aquaculture households are primarily located in the Mekong Delta and face high climate risks [36] - Employment in fisheries and aquaculture accounts for 3.3% of total employment, with inland aquaculture being the largest source of jobs [39] - Monthly income for fishing and aquaculture households averages US$174, higher than agriculture but lower than other sectors [47]
The Changing Wealth of Nations - Building Coastal Resilience with Mangroves
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-29 23:08
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The demand for coastal defenses is increasing due to escalating coastal risks from storms and climate change, with mangroves and coral reefs offering valuable coastal protection services by reducing waves and storm surges [11][12] - The present value of flood reduction benefits from mangroves in 2020 is estimated at $855 billion, with significant benefits observed in countries like China, Vietnam, Australia, the US, and India [11][12] - The report highlights the importance of integrating natural capital assets into economic analysis and decision-making processes to enhance coastal resilience [8][11] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report emphasizes the need for evaluating flood reduction benefits and the role of natural coastal defenses in informing policies for adaptation and sustainable development [16][17] - It notes the growing interest in nature-based defenses from international bodies and the importance of incorporating ecosystem-based approaches into disaster risk management strategies [18][19] Water Value in the Context of CWON - The report discusses the comprehensive wealth accounts produced by the World Bank, which include natural capital and its role in risk reduction and adaptation [20] - It highlights the significant coastal protection services provided by mangroves, including their ability to mitigate flooding and erosion [20] Results - The analysis covers 121 nations with mangroves, assessing flood risks and benefits over time, revealing that mangroves protected 22% more people and 59% more capital stock value in 2010 compared to 1996 [11][12] - The report indicates that from 2010 to 2020, mangrove benefits increased more than flood risk for the first time, with over 61% of people receiving direct flood benefits [12] Discussion - The findings underscore the need for policy makers to account for the benefits of mangroves in decision-making processes to prevent habitat loss and enhance coastal resilience [20][21] - The report suggests that investments in the conservation and restoration of mangroves can significantly contribute to flood risk reduction and climate adaptation [12][21] Recommendations - The report provides actionable insights for integrating shoreline protection services provided by mangroves into decision-making processes and promoting sustainable practices for coastal resilience [21][22]
Gabon Economic Update
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-29 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Gabon's economic recovery is expected to continue, supported by new exploration and growth in mining, wood, and agriculture, despite challenges such as lower oil revenues and increased spending pressures [16] - The forestry sector is emerging as a key driver in Gabon's diversification agenda, contributing significantly to jobs and exports, while also playing a crucial role in climate commitments [19][20] - Gabon's forests absorb approximately 140 million tons of CO2 annually, highlighting their importance in global climate efforts [19] - The government is implementing fiscal reforms to optimize forest resources, aiming to secure higher public revenues and meet environmental goals [22] Summary by Sections Overview - Gabon's economy showed resilience amid political events, with a 3.7% increase in oil output benefiting from high global prices [14] - Inflationary pressures eased, with consumer price inflation falling to 2.2% year-on-year in December 2023, down from a peak of 5.8% [15] - Poverty affected 35.2% of households, with high unemployment and insufficient job creation contributing to economic challenges [15] Recent Economic Trends and Outlook - Global growth declined from 3.0% in 2022 to an estimated 2.6% in 2023, impacting Gabon's economic performance [25] - Gabon's fiscal revenues reached a record high of 22.9% of GDP in 2023, driven by strong oil production and enhanced tax collection [15] - The trade surplus was affected by lower oil prices and weaker performance in wood and manganese exports, with oil constituting 68% of total exports [15] Designing Fiscal Instruments for Sustainable Forestry - The forestry sector accounted for 3.2% of GDP and 6% of exports in 2023, becoming a major source of jobs and economic diversification [20] - Gabon has implemented a log export ban to promote local timber processing, which has transformed the wood sector into a significant economic pillar [20] - Fiscal policies are being reformed to integrate climate-smart instruments, aiming to enhance public revenues while promoting sustainable forestry practices [22][23]
Equatorial Guinea Economic Update, 2nd Edition
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-29 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Equatorial Guinea's economy reentered recession in 2023, with GDP growth estimated at -5.7 percent, primarily due to a decline in hydrocarbon production and domestic demand [14][15][38] - The fiscal position deteriorated, with hydrocarbon revenues decreasing from 27.3 percent of GDP in 2022 to an estimated 19.1 percent in 2023, while government spending as a percentage of GDP increased [15][16] - The report emphasizes the need for structural reforms to diversify the economy away from oil dependency and promote sustainable growth, particularly through the forestry sector [19][22][29] Summary by Sections Chapter 1: Recent Economic Developments and Outlook - Economic activity in Equatorial Guinea contracted in 2023, driven by a decline in the hydrocarbon sector, with oil production decreasing by 21.7 percent [14][15] - The non-hydrocarbon sector showed growth, particularly in construction and services [14] - The medium-term economic outlook remains negative, with projected average real GDP growth of -3.7 percent from 2024 to 2026 [17][18] Chapter 2: Designing Fiscal Instruments for Sustainable Forestry - Equatorial Guinea has significant forest resources, covering about 87 percent of its territory, but faces challenges with deforestation and forest degradation [20][21] - The forestry sector's contribution to GDP has declined from 20 percent in 1995 to 0.2 percent in 2023, highlighting the need for local value-added processing [21][22] - The report discusses the potential of fiscal reforms to enhance revenue from the forestry sector, suggesting the implementation of a "bonus-malus" system to incentivize sustainable practices [25][29] - Recommendations include adjusting forest tax rates based on ecological impacts, promoting forest certification, and enhancing community engagement in forest management [29][30]
The Changing Wealth of Nations
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-10-29 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report emphasizes the critical role of terrestrial ecosystems, particularly forests, in carbon regulation and climate change mitigation [18][19] - It highlights the importance of accurate carbon stock estimation and valuation for effective environmental policy and investment decisions [21][28] - The ARIES approach is introduced as a method for integrating data and models to assess carbon stocks and ecosystem services [23][29] Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction outlines the significance of global maps representing modeled vegetation carbon stocks from 2001 to 2020 [17] - It discusses the role of terrestrial ecosystems in providing carbon regulation services and their importance in addressing climate change [18] Overview of Carbon Stock Estimates - The model computes terrestrial carbon stock as the sum of aboveground biomass, belowground biomass, and soil organic carbon stocks [30] - The report provides annual snapshots of carbon stock estimates for various land cover classes, emphasizing the contributions of forests and wetlands [31] Carbon Stock Valuation - The monetary valuation of carbon retention is discussed, focusing on the annual flow of carbon storage and its economic implications [28] - The report aims to produce a comprehensive collection of measurements for carbon stocks, integrating biophysical and monetary values [22] ARIES Approach - The ARIES approach is highlighted for its ability to combine data and models to study the interaction of human and natural systems [23] - It emphasizes interoperability, allowing for the integration of new data and methodologies to improve results [29] Discussion of Results - The report discusses vegetation carbon stock results aggregated by country and disaggregated by land cover class, providing insights into global carbon distribution [5.1][5.2] - It identifies key drivers of change in carbon stocks, including land cover changes and ecological transformations [24][46]