Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Population mobility in the Sahel is crucial for livelihoods and economic security, driven by economic motives such as wage differences, as well as non-economic factors like marriage and education [2][6] - Insecurity and climate change have led to an increase in distressed migrants and internally displaced persons (IDPs) [2][3] - Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) programs need to be adjusted to support migrants and their families, ensuring they are not penalized [3][4] Summary by Sections Key Recommendations - Policy frameworks for social protection should reflect mobility-related considerations and improve access to basic services and information on safe migration practices [4][5] - Operational modifications to ASP programs should ensure that migrants do not miss out on benefits due to administrative blind spots [4] Introduction - Economic factors significantly influence population mobility in the Sahel, with many seeking better livelihoods due to poverty and unemployment [6][7] - Internal mobility can diversify income and enhance resilience against climate and conflict-related shocks [6] Describing Internal Mobility - Over 47 million individuals in the Sahel have previously resided elsewhere within their country, with internal migration patterns varying by country [8][10] - Economic motives are the primary driver of voluntary internal mobility, with 77% of surveyed migrants citing economic reasons [10] Patterns of Voluntary Internal Mobility - Migration predominantly occurs along an east-west axis towards labor-intensive work centers, with rural-to-rural migration being significant in several countries [13][14] - The willingness to migrate varies, with 20% in Mali to 41% in Senegal expressing a desire to move [13] Forced Migration - Violent conflict and climate change are increasing forced migration, with IDPs projected to rise from 3.4 million in 2022 to 4.2 million by 2025 [16] - Climate change exacerbates economic migration, intertwining voluntary and forced migration dynamics [16][17] Labor Market Profiles of Voluntary Internal Migrants - Unemployment is common among internal migrants in urban areas, with the tertiary sector being the most prevalent area of work [18][20] - Higher education correlates with higher wages in urban areas, although exceptions exist [20] Vulnerabilities Associated with Migration - Migrants face risks such as social isolation, lack of access to services, and exploitation during transit and at destinations [22][23] - Many migrants experience unemployment and underemployment, leading to economic precarity [23] Implications for Adaptive Social Protection Programs - ASP must be designed to support the needs of mobile populations, recognizing migration patterns and adjusting policies accordingly [24][28] - Program eligibility criteria should be reviewed to ensure internal migrants can benefit from ASP programs [29] Conclusion - Modifications to ASP programs should integrate mobility-related considerations to enhance support for migrants and maximize the benefits of population mobility in the Sahel [37]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - Internal migration is a significant and growing phenomenon, with an estimated 763 million internal migrants globally as of 2013 and 71.1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) by the end of 2022, driven by urbanization and climate change [2][10] - Social protection programs often fail to adequately address the unique challenges faced by internal migrants and IDPs, highlighting the need for reforms in eligibility criteria and program design to better support these populations [3][11] - A comprehensive approach is necessary to integrate internal migration into social protection systems, ensuring that the needs of internal migrants and IDPs are effectively met [4] Summary by Sections Introduction - The rationale for the paper emphasizes the large scale of internal migration, with over 763 million people estimated to have migrated within national borders [10] - The global situation and trends in internal migration, particularly in the Sahel region, are discussed, noting the various forms of migration and the socio-economic factors driving these movements [12][17] Analytical Approach and Scope - The paper aims to advance knowledge on internal mobility and social protection, focusing on the Sahel region and its adaptive social protection systems [22] - Definitions of internal migration and internally displaced persons are provided, clarifying the scope of the review [23][24] Lessons Learned on Integrating Migrants in Social Protection Systems - Social protection can play a crucial role in supporting internal migrants, but many programs do not accommodate their specific needs [34][35] - Challenges in eligibility criteria, targeting methods, and enrollment processes are identified, with potential solutions proposed to enhance access for internal migrants [40][47][62] - The importance of dynamic social registries and community-based targeting is highlighted as a means to improve the inclusion of internal migrants in social protection programs [55][60]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The study assesses tax compliance and underreporting of labor income in Romania, particularly among minimum wage workers, highlighting the links between tax compliance and minimum wage policy [3][7][12] - The average underreporting of income in Romania is estimated at 6%, with significant underreporting observed in the lower half of the income distribution [3][46] - Tax compliance varies across different sectors, regions, and demographic groups, with transport, construction, and food and accommodation sectors showing the lowest compliance rates [3][12] - Women exhibit higher tax compliance compared to men [3] - The underreporting of income negatively impacts the fiscal capacity of the country and the effectiveness of means-tested social assistance programs [3][12] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report aims to evaluate tax compliance and underreporting of income in Romania, focusing on minimum wage earners and the implications for tax policy and equity [7][8] Methodology and Data - The study employs statistical matching techniques to compare tax returns with survey data, utilizing administrative tax records and EU-SILC data to assess tax compliance [16][21][30] - The analysis includes a comprehensive review of various methods to estimate tax evasion, highlighting the challenges of data integration and the importance of accurate income reporting [16][17][21] Results - The findings indicate that tax-reported income at the median is only 90% of the true income, with significant discrepancies noted at lower income percentiles [3][46] - The mean tax income is reported to be 1.2% lower than the mean survey income, while the imputed tax income is 6.6% higher than the mean survey income [43][44] - The report emphasizes the need for improved tax compliance mechanisms to enhance fiscal sustainability and social equity [10][12] Conclusion - The study concludes that addressing tax evasion is crucial for improving the effectiveness of the tax system and promoting greater income equality in Romania [10][12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Fuel subsidies are generally inefficient and disproportionately benefit wealthier households, leading to significant socio-economic costs [10][11][38] - The removal of fuel subsidies can generate substantial fiscal savings but requires careful management to mitigate economic and social impacts [39][42] Summary by Sections Section 1: Global Oil Price Trends - World oil prices have shown significant volatility, with a fourfold increase from September 2003 to June 2008, followed by drastic drops and subsequent rises, peaking at US$114 per barrel in July 2022 [6] - The overall trend in 2023 fluctuated around US$80.5 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical events and economic cycles [6] Section 2: Impact of Rising Oil Prices - Rising oil prices negatively affect household living standards and increase production costs, particularly impacting the poorest households [7] - Fuel subsidies have increased globally, with total fossil fuel subsidies rising from 5.4% of GDP in 2015 to 7.1% in 2022 [8] Section 3: Inefficiency of Fuel Subsidies - Fuel subsidies are poorly targeted, benefiting richer households more than poorer ones, with the richest 20% gaining over six times the benefits compared to the poorest 20% [10] - These subsidies compromise fiscal sustainability and hinder growth-enhancing expenditures [11] Section 4: Strategies for Addressing Oil Price Rises - Gradual removal of fuel subsidies is recommended, coupled with alternative social programs to mitigate negative impacts on poor households [15][16] - Cash transfer programs targeting low-income households can effectively replace fuel subsidies, with simulations indicating a potential 86% reduction in negative effects from higher fuel prices [16] Section 5: Case Studies of Fuel Subsidy Reforms - Successful fuel subsidy reforms often include social measures to mitigate the impact on households, with examples from South Africa, Brazil, and the Philippines [20] - The experience of Angola highlights the importance of timing and sequencing in subsidy reforms, as well as the need for synchronized compensation measures [40] Section 6: Angola's Fuel Subsidy Context - Angola's fuel subsidies have been substantial, with fuel prices in 2011 being 67% lower than the Sub-Saharan Africa average [22] - The government has implemented a multiphase approach to fuel subsidy reform, with significant price increases in 2023 and 2024 aimed at gradually aligning prices with market levels [24][29] Section 7: Economic Impact of Subsidy Removal - The removal of subsidies is projected to result in a cumulative price increase of around 5.0%, with the highest impacts in the fisheries and transportation sectors [2][32] - Fully compensating for price increases in these sectors would absorb approximately 30% of the savings generated from subsidy removal [32][37]

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the competition policy in digital markets, particularly the combined effect of ex ante and ex post instruments in G7 jurisdictions [1][3] - Regulators are increasingly concerned about the market power of large digital platforms and their influence across markets, leading to debates on the effectiveness of competition law enforcement in addressing digital competition concerns [3] - The OECD was tasked with compiling an inventory of legislative reforms aimed at addressing digital competition issues in G7 jurisdictions, with the analysis expanding to non-G7 jurisdictions in 2023 [4] Core Findings - The report highlights the convergence and divergence between regulatory regimes proposed to address digital competition concerns, focusing on key competition issues and enforcement patterns in G7 countries [6] - It analyzes recent antitrust cases to identify problematic conducts and the remedies implemented by competition authorities, with a focus on the complementarities and overlaps between ex ante and ex post instruments [7] - The report also examines the extraterritorial effects of national enforcement activities in digital markets, particularly how platforms' compliance strategies may impact global markets [7] Key Competition Concerns Anti-Steering Practices and MFNs - Anti-steering practices and most-favored-nation (MFN) clauses have been a major focus of competition enforcement, with platforms like Apple and Amazon facing scrutiny for restricting business users from offering better terms or steering consumers to alternative channels [13][14] - Remedies in these cases often require platforms to remove or not enforce anti-steering and MFN provisions, with similar measures being incorporated into ex ante regulations like the EU's Digital Markets Act (DMA) [18][19] Use of Data - The accumulation and use of user data by large platforms have raised competition concerns, particularly around platforms leveraging data to gain unfair advantages in related markets [22] - Enforcement actions have targeted platforms like Amazon and Meta for using non-public data from business users to inform their own retail or advertising decisions, with behavioral commitments being accepted to address these concerns [23][24] Self-Preferencing - Self-preferencing, where platforms favor their own products or services over those of competitors, has been a growing concern, with investigations targeting Amazon, Google, and Apple [30][31] - Remedies in these cases vary, with some jurisdictions considering structural remedies, such as requiring divestitures, to address the underlying conflicts of interest [33] Tying and Bundling Practices - Tying and bundling practices, particularly in mobile operating systems and app stores, have been a longstanding focus of competition enforcement, with Google and Apple facing multiple investigations [37][38] - Remedies have included allowing alternative payment systems and improving interoperability, with ex ante regulations like the DMA also addressing these issues [42] Compliance and Extraterritorial Effects - Platforms generally tailor their compliance measures to the jurisdiction at stake, with limited extraterritorial effects observed [47][48] - However, in some cases, platforms have made global changes in response to enforcement actions, particularly when multiple jurisdictions investigate the same conduct [49][53] - The report notes that platforms' compliance strategies are influenced by the costs and benefits of maintaining differentiated operations across jurisdictions, with potential fragmentation of services and outcomes for users [57][58] Conclusion - The report concludes that ex ante regulations and traditional antitrust enforcement will continue to play complementary roles in addressing competition concerns in digital markets, with ongoing uncertainty about the effectiveness of remedies and compliance strategies [61][62] - International cooperation and knowledge sharing will be critical to mitigate the risks of fragmentation and ensure consistent outcomes across jurisdictions [67]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The paper highlights the significant impact of domestic laws on government procurement, particularly focusing on protectionist measures that favor domestic suppliers over foreign competitors [2][9] - A novel dataset covering 141 countries reveals that 124 countries have preferential treatment provisions, indicating a widespread adoption of protectionist policies [2][11] - The analysis shows a negative correlation between protectionist procurement policies and trade openness, with countries exhibiting more protectionist laws trading more domestically than internationally [2][12] Summary by Sections Introduction - Government procurement accounts for 12% of global GDP as of 2019, with increased scrutiny on its allocation due to the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical crises [7] - Governments utilize procurement to achieve socioeconomic goals, which can lead to protectionist policies that limit foreign supplier participation [8] Literature Review - The literature indicates that protectionist rules in government procurement can significantly affect trade flows and economic efficiency [20][22] - Empirical studies have shown that countries with higher government spending tend to import less, suggesting the presence of protectionism [23] Data and Descriptive Evidence - A unique dataset was compiled to analyze procurement laws and trade data, focusing on discriminatory practices against foreign firms [28] - The analysis identifies three main types of protectionist measures: lack of equal treatment, preferential treatment for domestic bidders, and domestic sourcing requirements [30][31] Results on Trade Openness and Protectionism - Cross-country regression results indicate that countries with protectionist procurement laws have an import share in total spending that is 20% lower compared to less protectionist countries [45][48] - The negative correlation between protectionism and trade openness is particularly strong in the manufacturing and primary sectors [49][50] Gravity Model Estimations - Gravity model estimations confirm that protectionist measures in government procurement lead to a significant "border effect," where domestic purchases are substantially higher than international ones in more protectionist countries [54][57]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Operational Readiness Activation & Transition (ORAT) methodology is essential for managing the transition from construction to operation of complex facilities, ensuring all components work cohesively from day one [5][6][8] - The ORAT approach is particularly beneficial for high-profile, high-complexity projects such as airports, hospitals, and major public events, where operational readiness is critical to success [7][9] - A structured and integrated plan is necessary to bring together diverse stakeholders, processes, and technologies, ensuring a smooth transition and operational efficiency [8][11] Summary by Sections Overview - ORAT provides a framework for managing risks associated with opening new or upgraded large and complex operations, focusing on achieving complete operational readiness rather than just construction completion [5][6] - The methodology emphasizes the importance of validating integration points between people, processes, facilities, and systems through testing and exercises [6] Benefits of ORAT - Early integrated approach to operational readiness enhances stakeholder relations and issue resolution [9] - Structured recruitment, training, and familiarization processes improve customer experience and ensure business continuity [9] Methodology Components - Connected leadership is crucial for integrating stakeholders and operational elements into a cohesive activation program [11] - Stakeholder engagement from the outset helps eliminate surprises and builds confidence leading up to the transition [12][13] People Readiness - Preparing personnel is vital for operational success, as misalignment can lead to delays and poor customer experiences [15][16] Facilities and System Activation - A systematic approach ensures that all physical elements and systems are delivered to a high quality, supporting operational readiness [17][18] Process and Trials - Developing and testing processes in collaboration with operational teams is essential for effective facility operation [19][20] Transition to Opening - Planning and executing a transition strategy focused on readiness rather than necessity is critical for successful facility launch [21][22] Case Studies - The report includes various case studies demonstrating the application of ORAT in different sectors, including aviation, healthcare, and public transport, showcasing successful transitions and operational readiness [26][27][28][39][51]

OCTOBER 2024 Trade Intervention for Freer Trade Michael Pettis and Erica Hogan Trade Intervention for Freer Trade Michael Pettis and Erica Hogan © 2024 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved. Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any me ...

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the evolution of social contribution exemptions in France over the past 30 years, particularly targeting low-wage workers to address labor market challenges for less qualified employees [11][12] - The policy of reducing employer social contributions has significantly impacted employment, especially during periods of high unemployment in the 1990s [12] - The cost of the exemption system is estimated at 75 billion euros in 2023, driven by employment growth, wage mass, and the level of the minimum wage (Smic) [6] Historical Policy Evolution - The policy of reducing employer social contributions began in the 1990s with the "Balladur" exemptions, targeting wages close to the Smic [57] - Between 1996 and 2005, the policy shifted to degressive systems, aligning with the transition to a 35-hour workweek [60] - From 2006 to 2012, the "Fillon" exemptions stabilized, with a degressive linear system and a threshold at 1.6 times the Smic [69] - Between 2013 and 2019, competitiveness measures expanded exemptions to higher wage levels [56] - Since 2020, the system has stabilized, with thresholds and rates remaining unchanged [56] Labor Market Impact - The employment rate in France has improved since the 1990s, but inactivity and unemployment remain high for specific groups and less dynamic employment areas [6] - The policy has benefited employers of workers near the Smic, but short-term Smic increases expose companies to heterogeneous cost shocks [6] - The concentration of wages around 1.2 to 1.3 times the Smic has increased over time, particularly during the transition to the 35-hour workweek [6] Economic Analysis - Empirical evaluations indicate substantial employment effects for low-skilled jobs, both in France and abroad [7] - Recent studies show that exemptions benefit companies by reducing costs and improving liquidity, leading to broader employment effects beyond low-wage workers [39] - The progressivity of the tax system can discourage labor supply and training efforts, potentially reducing productivity gains [39] Reform Scenarios - The central reform scenario proposes reducing exemptions by 4.05 points at the Smic level and eliminating certain thresholds, aiming to lower the slope of exemptions and encourage wage progression [14] - Alternative scenarios include maintaining current exemptions at the Smic level but smoothing them to a lower threshold, potentially saving 12.1 billion euros but resulting in job losses [46] - Another option is to recycle savings from reducing the slope of exemptions, extending them to higher wage levels, which could create 50,000 full-time equivalent jobs [47] Simplification and Clarity - The report recommends simplifying the system by limiting it to two exemption regimes: a general regime and an enhanced regime for workers particularly sensitive to labor costs [16] - It suggests unifying the base for social contributions and exemptions, using the same base as the CSG (General Social Contribution) for activity income [16] - The report also proposes making social contributions more transparent by distinguishing between contributory and non-contributory levies [16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but indicates significant interest and investment from AI developers and major technology companies in AI agents. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs) and their potential to create sophisticated AI agents that can perform complex tasks autonomously, which could transform various sectors of the economy and society [2][4][17]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The concept of AI agents has gained renewed interest due to advancements in LLMs, with many companies aiming to develop agents that can function as personal assistants and perform various tasks autonomously [2]. Introduction and Scope - The report discusses the historical context of AI agents and the recent progress in LLMs, emphasizing the potential for these systems to operate in more complex environments and pursue multifaceted goals [11]. What Is an AI Agent? - AI agents are characterized by their ability to pursue complex goals, operate in intricate environments, plan independently, and take direct actions, distinguishing them from simpler AI systems [3][12][13]. Technological Trajectories - The report notes a surge of interest in LLM-based agents, with companies developing software that allows these models to execute tasks autonomously, although current agents still face significant limitations [17][22]. Current State of AI Agents - As of mid-2024, many major AI companies are working on enhancing their chatbots into more capable agents, although existing products often struggle with basic tasks [22][72]. Opportunities, Risks, and Other Impacts - The development of AI agents presents numerous opportunities for increased productivity and efficiency, but also raises concerns about potential misuse, accidents, and the impact on labor markets [30][31][36]. Guardrails and Intervention Points - The report discusses the need for technical and legal guardrails to manage the risks associated with AI agents, including visibility, control, and trustworthiness [37][38]. Evaluating Agents and Their Impacts - There is a call for improved methodologies to evaluate AI agents' performance and impacts, as current assessment methods are inadequate [39]. Technical Guardrails - The report outlines various technical measures that can be implemented to ensure the safe operation of AI agents, including real-time monitoring and access control [44][48]. AI Agents and the Law - Existing legal frameworks can be applied to AI agents, but there are complex questions regarding liability and responsibility that need to be addressed as these systems become more prevalent [61][62]. Conclusion - The report concludes that while AI agents hold great promise, their development and deployment will require careful consideration of the associated risks and the establishment of appropriate governance frameworks [71][74].