Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10928 Jobless Development Franziska Ohnsorge Richard Rogerson Zoe Leiyu Xie Public Disclosure Authorized South Asia Region Office of the Chief Economist September 2024 Policy Research Working Paper 10928 Abstract Analyses of GDP per capita differences across countries focus almost exclusively on differences in productivity. This paper shows that there are also large differences in medium-run ...

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10926 Effective Fuel Price in Reducing Emission Intensity A Panel Analysis for Brazil Ayan Qu Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice & Africa Region September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10926 Abstract This paper studies how effective an incremental change in the price of fuel, a proxy for fuel carbon tax, is in reducing the emission intensity ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing financial struggles for businesses in Canada, particularly due to poor B2B payment practices, with significant concerns about rising insolvencies in the coming year [3][14] Summary by Sections B2B Payment Risk Management - Almost half of the surveyed companies report no change in the landscape of poor B2B customer payment behavior, with 25% noting a further deterioration [7] - An average of 46% of B2B invoices are overdue, with bad debts averaging 6% of all B2B invoices, particularly affecting the energy/fuel sector [7] - Companies are experiencing delays in turning overdue invoices into cash, averaging one month beyond the due date, with agri-food and consumer durables sectors facing the longest delays [7] Key Figures and Charts - 50% of companies rely on trade credit, 48% on invoice financing, and 47% on bank loans to meet short-term financial needs [13] - 42% of B2B sales are currently transacted on credit, an increase from the previous year, with 52% maintaining unchanged payment terms [7] Looking Ahead - 55% of businesses anticipate worsening insolvency levels, particularly in the energy/fuel sector, while 30% expect improvements in debt collection efficiency [14] - 65% of companies expect a surge in demand for products and services, especially in the consumer durables sector, with 46% anticipating improved profitability [14] - The primary concern for businesses is the impact of environmental and sustainability regulations, particularly in the energy/fuel industry [14]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed landscape in B2B payment practices in the United States, with 46% of companies reporting no change in customer payment behavior, while one-third, particularly in the steel/metals sector, note faster invoice payments compared to the previous year [7][16] - Late payments remain a significant issue, with half of all B2B invoices currently overdue, impacting working capital management, and bad debts averaging 8% of all B2B credit sales [7][16] - Companies are increasingly adopting strategic risk management frameworks, with 15% more businesses leveraging credit insurance compared to the previous year [7][16] Summary by Sections B2B Payment Risk Management - Companies in the US report varied B2B customer payment behavior, with 46% indicating no change and one-third noting faster payments, particularly in the steel/metals sector [7] - Late payments from B2B credit transactions are a major issue, with half of all invoices overdue and bad debts averaging 8% [7] - The main reasons for late payments include administrative inefficiencies and invoice disputes, with overdue invoices typically turned into cash 20 days past due [7] Looking Ahead - There is a mixed outlook for US businesses, with 50% anticipating an increase in insolvencies, particularly in the steel/metals sector, while the chemicals sector is more optimistic [16][20] - 53% of companies expect an improvement in B2B customer payment behavior, especially in the steel/metals and electronics/ICT sectors [17][20] - Concerns about economic conditions, cybersecurity threats, and market saturation are prevalent among businesses, with 40% citing economic conditions as a top concern [20][29] Key Figures and Trends - 67% of companies used invoice financing, 65% utilized trade credit, and 52% relied on bank loans over the past 12 months [9] - 40% of businesses reacted to late payments by delaying payments to their suppliers, while 55% focused on maintaining stable Days-Sales-Outstanding (DSO) [7][16] - 69% of companies expect a surge in demand for their products and services in the coming months, particularly in the steel/metals and electronics/ICT sectors [20]

B2B Payment Practices in North America (USMCA) - 49% of companies report no significant change in B2B payment behavior, especially in Mexico, while one-third of businesses, notably in the US, report quicker invoice payments [8] - Late payments currently affect around half of all invoices issued by North American businesses in B2B trade, with bad debts averaging 6% of all credit sales [8] - 35% of companies across North America respond to poor payment practices by delaying payments to their own suppliers, while deferring investment plans is another strategy, especially in Canada [8] - Approximately 45% of all B2B sales by North American companies are transacted on credit, an increase from the previous year, notably in Canada [8] - Around 55% of companies focus on maintaining debt collection efficiency to stabilize Days Sales Outstanding (DSO), with improvements reported in Mexico but deterioration in Canada [8] B2B Payment Risk Management - Administrative challenges faced by B2B credit customers in their payment processes are cited as the main reason for late payments, particularly among US businesses [8] - Customer cash flow issues contribute significantly to payment delays for almost one-third of companies, primarily in Mexico [8] - Companies are shifting away from in-house retention of customer credit risk, with 40% of Canadian and Mexican businesses using trade credit insurance, compared to 23% in the US [8] - Factoring is popular in Canada, where 46% of businesses use it as a credit management tool [8] Economic Outlook and Insolvency Trends - 48% of companies, primarily in Canada, anticipate an increase in insolvencies during the coming months, while 49% expect the insolvency trend to remain stable, especially in Mexico [15] - 45% of companies in North America expect Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) to remain stable, while 38% anticipate improved debt collection efficiency, notably in the US [15] - 67% of companies across North America expect a surge in demand for their products and services, with optimism particularly evident in Mexico [15] - Only 48% of businesses are positive about the prospect of improved profitability in the year ahead, with economic uncertainty being a key concern [15] Financing and Cash Flow Challenges - 57% of companies used trade credit as a main source of financing during the past 12 months, followed by invoice financing (52%) and bank loans (49%) [14] - 35% of companies report slowing down payments to suppliers due to late payments from B2B customers, while 31% face difficulties in meeting financial obligations [13] - 28% of companies delay paying bills and/or staff, and 25% report increased borrowing costs and reliance on short-term financing [13] Future Concerns and Strategic Adjustments - The main concerns for businesses in North America include economic conditions (36%), cybersecurity challenges (34%), and environmental and sustainability issues (31%) [20] - Market saturation and financial constraints are pressing challenges, with many businesses experiencing a lack of working capital and difficulty in accessing finance [15] - Companies are exploring diversified approaches to credit risk management, including trade credit insurance and factoring, to navigate the complex and challenging environment [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong potential for the autonomous trucking industry, projecting a market size of approximately $600 billion by 2035, with significant growth opportunities driven by technological advancements and economic factors [1][15]. Core Insights - Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are expected to address critical challenges in the trucking industry, such as driver shortages and rising transportation costs, although their widespread adoption may be delayed by about a year [2][3]. - The report outlines two primary use cases for autonomous trucking: constrained autonomy (hub-to-hub operations) and full autonomy (direct distribution center-to-distribution center operations) [5][7]. - The total cost of ownership (TCO) for autonomous heavy-duty trucks is projected to decrease significantly, with potential savings of up to 42% per mile for long-distance routes [13][14]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The autonomous trucking market is projected to reach $616 billion by 2035, with significant contributions from China, the United States, and Europe [15][19]. - The U.S. is expected to have the fastest adoption rate, with 13% of heavy-duty trucks being autonomous by 2035, driven by high driver salaries and long distances [18][20]. Economic Factors - The U.S. faces a shortage of over 80,000 truck drivers, a number expected to double by 2030, while Europe anticipates a shortage of 745,000 drivers by 2028 [3][4]. - Transportation costs have risen significantly, with logistics costs as a share of GDP increasing from 7.5% in 2020 to 8.7% in 2023, creating a financial incentive for the adoption of autonomous trucking [3][4]. Technological Requirements - Autonomous trucks require advanced hardware and software, including sensors, high-performance computers, and AI-driven decision-making systems [4][24]. - Major challenges include the need for reliable detection systems and the availability of essential components like LiDAR and redundant braking systems [4][24]. Use Cases and Adoption - The report identifies two overlapping use cases for autonomous trucking: constrained autonomy for hub-to-hub operations and full autonomy for direct routes between distribution centers [5][7]. - The transition to full autonomy is expected to occur gradually from 2027 to 2040, with initial operations focusing on highways and geofenced areas [6][8]. Financial Implications - TCO benefits will vary by route length, with significant savings expected for longer routes (over 1,500 miles) due to reduced driver costs and optimized operations [12][13]. - The report suggests that as technology matures, the cost of autonomous systems will decrease, further enhancing TCO advantages [14][20]. Market Dynamics - Two emerging business models for autonomous trucking are identified: Driver as a Service (DaaS) and Capacity as a Service (CaaS), each offering different operational and financial implications [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the need for collaboration among OEMs, technology developers, and infrastructure providers to facilitate the successful deployment of autonomous trucks [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The complexity of board roles and responsibilities has increased significantly, with two-thirds of surveyed directors acknowledging this trend [4][6] - Effective collaboration between boards and CEOs is crucial for enhancing organizational value, yet only one-third of respondents report effective collaboration [7][23] - Directors are increasingly prioritizing collaboration with management teams to navigate growing complexities [6][23] Summary by Sections Board Complexity - The business environment is more unpredictable, leading to an expansion of topics on board agendas, including technology trends, cybersecurity, and net-zero transitions [5][4] - The average number of days directors dedicate to board-related activities has increased from 25 in 2019 to 30 in 2023 [6] Collaboration Tactics - 59% of directors are strengthening collaboration with management teams, while 52% are dedicating more time to board work [6] - Effective collaboration is linked to higher perceived impact on long-term value creation, with effective collaborators being twice as likely to report high impact [11] Enhancing Collaboration - Establishing efficient board processes is essential, with effective collaborators being 2.4 times more likely to report efficient meeting management [16] - Prioritizing communication between boards and CEOs is critical, as misaligned agendas and poor information sharing are major barriers to effective collaboration [20][21] - Fostering a culture of trust and respect within the boardroom enhances collaboration, with effective collaborators more likely to engage in team-building activities [22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report discusses the significant volatility in commodity markets, particularly in energy, metals, and polymers, with sharp price increases observed from the end of 2021 through 2022, followed by price decreases in 2023 and 2024 [4] - Purchasing organizations are now required to adjust commodity and component prices back to a "fair price" level based on actual raw material costs and energy price developments [4] - The introduction of a spend digital twin is highlighted as a transformative tool for procurement, enabling buyers to gain a clear and real-time view of fair market prices [4][5] Summary by Sections Spend Digital Twin Overview - A spend digital twin allows for a comprehensive analysis of spending, enabling detailed examination of cost drivers at the category level and assessing market developments over time [4] - This tool helps establish a fair market price index that can be compared against actual price progression to identify negotiation points [4] Applications of Spend Digital Twin - Identifying negotiation potentials by comparing fair market price indices with actual price changes [7] - Preparing for supplier negotiations by calculating clawback opportunities and fair price adjustments [7][8] - Supporting the derivation of indexation contracts by analyzing historical price developments relative to fair market indices [8] Performance Measurement and Stakeholder Communication - A spend digital twin aids in measuring purchasing performance and separating market movements from negotiation performance [9] - It facilitates sharing information with cross-functional stakeholders, particularly the sales department, to inform pricing strategies based on cost developments [9] Implementation and Value Capture - Setting up a spend digital twin can take several weeks to months, depending on the model's complexity, but even a basic setup can provide valuable insights [9] - The report emphasizes that leveraging a spend digital twin can enhance procurement strategies, drive cost efficiencies, and sustain competitiveness in fluctuating market conditions [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Education and skills are critical determinants of earning potential, with sector specialization significantly influencing earnings. The study focuses on vocational training in high-paying sectors, specifically information and communications technology (ICT) and energy in Côte d'Ivoire [4][10] - A majority of individuals seeking vocational training aspire to enter high-paying sectors, with 72% of men and 51% of women expressing interest in ICT or energy [4][13] - Higher levels of education and larger professional networks positively correlate with the likelihood of selecting training in these high-paying sectors [4][13] - Women benefit significantly from male role models, which increase their likelihood of choosing training in ICT or energy, while traditional gender roles can hinder their participation [4][13][15] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report highlights the importance of skills in economic transformation, emphasizing the shift from low-productivity activities to higher productivity occupations [10] - It notes the significant dropout rates in secondary education in Côte d'Ivoire, with only 55% enrollment compared to 93% in primary education [10] Labor Market Context - As of 2023, the female labor force participation rate in Côte d'Ivoire is 56.5%, compared to 72.2% for males, indicating persistent gender disparities [16] - The report discusses the high incidence of vulnerable employment, with 80.8% of employed women engaged in informal work [16] Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) - Only 5% of secondary education students are enrolled in vocational programs, and just 2% of 15-24-year-olds participated in TVET in 2018 [17][18] - The report identifies the need for improved quality in TVET, including updated curricula and better alignment with industry requirements [18] PRO-Jeunes Program - The PRO-Jeunes program targets youth aged 15 to 30, providing flexible employment support services and vocational training in high-paying sectors [19][24] - Among participants, 72% of men and 51% of women chose training in energy and ICT [25] Data and Sample Description - The study is based on surveys conducted with 2,528 individuals seeking vocational training, focusing on socio-demographic characteristics, education, employment, networks, role models, and gender attitudes [27][40] - The sample is balanced in terms of gender, but women generally have lower education levels and income compared to men [42][43] Key Findings - An additional year of education increases the likelihood of seeking training in ICT and energy by 3.2 percentage points for women and 4.4 percentage points for men [13] - Women with prior training in EICT sectors are more likely to pursue further training, indicating path dependency [13] - Traditional gender roles negatively impact women's choices in high-paying sector training, with those prioritizing household responsibilities less likely to opt for such training [13][15]

Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10923 Thirsty Business A Global Analysis of Extreme Weather Shocks on Firms Roberta Gatti Asif M. Islam Casey Maue Esha Zaveri Middle East and North Africa Region & Planet Vice Presidency September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10923 Abstract Using global data from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys that includes the precise geo-location of surveyed firms, t ...