Latin America 100 2024
Brand Finance· 2024-09-25 00:48
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies analyzed. Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of brand valuation in understanding a company's overall value and its contribution to strategic decision-making in marketing and branding [5][6]. - Strong brands can enhance business performance by differentiating from competitors, increasing customer loyalty, and allowing for premium pricing [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the growing significance of sustainability perceptions among consumers, with 62% trusting brand sustainability claims, while 79% have reduced consumption of brands perceived as unsustainable [8][9]. Summary by Sections Brand Value Analysis - The top five most valuable brands in Latin America for 2024 are Corona Extra ($10.39 billion), Itaú ($8.33 billion), Banco do Brasil ($5.45 billion), Modelo Especial ($5.24 billion), and Bradesco ($5.01 billion) [23][24]. - Corona Extra is also recognized as the strongest brand with a Brand Strength Index (BSI) of 85.89 and a AAA rating [23][35]. - The report notes that the brand value of Corona Extra increased by $2.96 billion from 2023, reflecting its strong market position [25][26]. Economic Context - Latin America faces significant economic challenges in 2024, including the lingering effects of the pandemic and political instability, yet valuable brands have shown resilience and adaptability [25][26]. - The report indicates that brands that invest in brand management not only strengthen their market position but also contribute to economic recovery in the region [25][26]. Brand Strength Insights - The report identifies the strongest brands based on their BSI, with Banco do Brasil following Corona Extra with a BSI of 79.06 and a AA+ rating [36]. - Modelo Especial has a BSI of 78.90, attributed to its growing popularity in the U.S. market as a premium beer [39]. - Itaú and Bradesco have BSIs of 77.57 and 74.77, respectively, highlighting their stability and reputation in the banking sector [39]. Sustainability Perceptions - The report discusses the importance of sustainability in brand value, noting that brands perceived as sustainable can enhance their reputation and customer loyalty [50][52]. - Corona Extra has a sustainability perception value of 889, reflecting its commitment to responsible production and environmental management [52][53]. - Itaú's sustainability perception value is 573, indicating its efforts in financing renewable energy projects and reducing its carbon footprint [53][56].
Do More Informed Citizens Make Better Climate Policy Decisions?
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-24 23:03
Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10921 Do More Informed Citizens Make Better Climate Policy Decisions? Michael M. Lokshin Iván Torre Michael Hannon Miguel E. Purroy Europe and Central Asia Region Office of the Chief Economist September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10921 Abstract This study explores the relationship between perceptions of catastrophic events and beliefs about climate change. ...
It Takes a Village Election
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-24 23:03
Industry Overview - The study focuses on the impact of leadership turnover in local bureaucracies, particularly in Indonesian villages, and its effects on bureaucratic performance and public service provision [1][2] - The research highlights the role of village elections in disrupting nepotistic networks and improving governance at the grassroots level [2][5] Key Findings - Leadership turnover in village elections leads to a revitalization of local bureaucracies, with new leaders appointing more officials, engaging in promotions and demotions, and setting higher salaries [8][34] - Turnover reduces the prevalence of nepotistic networks, with new leaders less likely to employ relatives or bureaucrats with family connections to previous administrations [36][37] - Bureaucrats under new leadership report higher morale and motivation, leading to increased interactions with citizens and better alignment with their needs [40][42] - Electoral turnovers improve the quality of public service provision, particularly in locally managed services such as garbage collection and street lighting [49][50] Mechanisms and Implications - The positive effects of turnover on bureaucratic performance are driven by the disruption of nepotistic networks, which allows for more meritocratic governance and improved service delivery [60][61] - Newly elected leaders who successfully reduce nepotism achieve the most substantial improvements in bureaucratic performance and public goods provision [59][60] - The study suggests that regular, free, and fair elections are crucial for ensuring accountability and improving governance at the local level [68] Data and Methodology - The analysis is based on a large-scale survey conducted in 852 villages across Indonesia, combined with administrative data on public goods provision [6][19] - The study employs a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to estimate the causal effects of electoral turnovers on bureaucratic performance and public service provision [24][25]
Questioning the Climate Change
Age Gap
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-24 23:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The paper challenges the widely held belief that younger generations are more concerned about climate change than older generations, presenting evidence that older individuals may be equally or more concerned about climate change [2][9][46] - The findings indicate that older respondents are more likely to oppose tax increases for climate policies, reflecting a general decline in willingness to pay taxes with age rather than a specific aversion to climate change financing [9][60] - The study utilizes data from 38 countries in Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East, collected during the 2023 Life in Transition Survey, to analyze the relationship between age and climate change attitudes [2][33] Summary by Sections Introduction - The concept of a "climate change age gap" is introduced, suggesting that younger people are perceived to care more about climate change due to their longer expected lifespan under adverse conditions [6][8] - The paper aims to explore this notion and its implications for climate policy implementation [6][7] Literature Review - Previous studies show mixed results regarding age as a predictor of climate change beliefs, with some indicating younger individuals are more concerned while others find minimal differences [12][14][16] - The literature highlights various socio-structural and psychological factors influencing climate change beliefs across different age groups [12][18] Theoretical Framework - A theoretical model is developed to explain how age-related factors influence perceptions and willingness to act on climate change [21][26] - The model suggests that older individuals may have heightened concerns about climate change impacts due to their increased vulnerability [21][30] Data - The analysis is based on the 2023 Life in Transition Survey, which includes a representative sample from 38 countries, focusing on climate beliefs and actions [33][34] - Key questions assess personal beliefs about climate change and willingness to support government actions through taxes [33][35] Empirical Results - The results show that older individuals are generally more concerned about climate change impacts on future generations but are less willing to pay higher taxes for climate policies [46][60] - A significant age gradient is observed in willingness to support climate change actions, with younger individuals showing higher willingness to pay [44][60] Conclusion - The study concludes that the perceived age gap in climate change concern may be overstated, with older individuals demonstrating significant concern but lower willingness to finance climate actions through taxes [9][60] - The findings suggest that policymakers should consider these dynamics when designing climate policies to ensure broad support across age groups [9][60]
Regenerative Agriculture in Practice
Shi Jie Yin Hang· 2024-09-24 23:03
Policy Research Working Paper 10919 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Regenerative Agriculture in Practice | --- | --- | |-------|-----------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | A Review | | | | | | Andrew Dabalen | | | Aparajita Goyal | | | Ruozi Song | Africa Region Office of the Chief Economist September 2024 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Policy Research Working Paper 10919 Abstract Regenerative agriculture, a farming approach that focuses on soil health ...
Morgan Stanley-China Financials Further moderation in TSF growth good for ...-110333941
Morgan Stanley· 2024-09-24 03:55
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Attractive" investment rating to the industry [1]. Core Insights - The headline Total Social Financing (TSF) growth moderated to approximately 8% year-on-year (YoY) in August, indicating a more rational loan extension which is expected to stabilize loan yields [1][2]. - Government bond issuance is anticipated to be a primary support for investment and consumption in the second half of 2024 [1]. - The report forecasts TSF growth to remain around 8% for 2024, with a potential decline below this level, which is viewed positively for the long-term sustainability of the financial system [1][2]. - Credit growth is expected to slow to approximately 7% in 2025, which will help close the gap between credit supply and demand, thereby supporting loan yields through more market-oriented pricing by banks [1]. Summary by Sections TSF Growth and Loan Dynamics - TSF growth moderated to 8.1% YoY in August, with RMB loan growth also at 8.1% YoY [2][3]. - The moderation in loan growth is attributed to efforts to reduce self-circulating loans and a rationalization of loan growth as banks focus on risk containment [1][3]. - Long-term corporate loans remain weak, influenced by policies on capacity control and fair competition rules [1]. Government Bonds and Investment Support - Government bond issuance increased by 15.8% YoY, providing significant support for investment and consumption [2][3]. - The report highlights that government bonds will likely be utilized to bolster investment and consumption in the latter half of 2024 [1]. Household and Corporate Deposits - Household deposit growth remained stable at 10.9% YoY in August, while corporate deposits declined by 3.9% YoY [1][11]. - The stability in household deposits is seen as a positive indicator for fee income rebound in the second half of 2024 [1]. Loan Types and Trends - Short-term household loans saw a significant decline of 52% YoY, while long-term household loans are experiencing a slower decline [1][11]. - The report notes that mortgages are gradually stabilizing, attributed to lower early repayments and some recovery in demand due to lower mortgage rates [1]. Valuation Comparisons - The report includes valuation comparisons for various Chinese banks, indicating a range of price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios, with several banks rated as Overweight (OW) [12][13].
European Economic Comment _ECB Stays data dependent, we see...-110299400
Ubs Securities· 2024-09-24 03:55
ab 12 September 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | Eu ...
JPMorgan Econ FI-United States-110319185
摩根大通· 2024-09-24 03:55
Investment Rating - The report suggests a likely 50 basis points (bp) cut in the Fed funds rate at the upcoming FOMC meeting, indicating a positive investment outlook for the sector [2][4][6]. Core Insights - The Fed is expected to initiate an easing cycle, with a strong case for a 50bp cut due to current restrictive policy levels and a shift in risk balance [4][5][6]. - Economic projections indicate a forecasted GDP growth of 2.1% for 2024, with an unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.2% [7]. - The report anticipates a total of 100bp of cuts in 2024 and 150bp in 2025, supporting a soft landing for the economy [6][8]. Economic Data Summary - Core PCE inflation is projected to rise by 0.14% month-over-month, with a year-over-year rate of 2.7% [43][48]. - Retail sales are expected to show a modest increase of 0.3% excluding autos, while overall retail sales may decline by 0.2% due to lower vehicle sales [25][26]. - Industrial production is forecasted to increase by 0.8% month-over-month, rebounding from previous declines [22][24]. - Jobless claims are projected to fall to 225,000, indicating a stable labor market [32][33]. Inflation and Price Trends - CPI inflation showed a core increase of 0.28% month-over-month, stabilizing the year-over-year rate at 3.2% [43][44]. - Food prices rose by 0.1% month-over-month, while energy prices declined by 0.8% [45][48]. - The report highlights a significant increase in airline fares by 3.9% month-over-month, marking the largest gain in over two years [45]. Housing Market Insights - Existing home sales are expected to decline by 2.5% month-over-month, reflecting a slowdown in the housing market [37][38]. - Housing starts are projected to rebound by 6-7% month-over-month, reversing previous declines attributed to weather impacts [29][31]. Manufacturing Sector Overview - The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index is expected to edge up to -5.0, indicating slight improvement in manufacturing conditions [34][35]. - The employment index in manufacturing remains weak, suggesting ongoing challenges in the labor market [23]. Consumer Sentiment and Spending - Consumer sentiment is gradually improving, with expectations for inflation remaining stable [46]. - The report indicates that lower gasoline prices may support real spending in the upcoming quarter [25].
JPMorgan Econ FI-US Fixed Income Overview Stuck here in the middle with you-110319151
摩根大通· 2024-09-24 03:50
J P M O R G A N North America Fixed Income Strategy 13 September 2024 Phoebe White AC (1-212) 834-3092 phoebe.a.white@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Liam L Wash (1-212) 834-5230 liam.wash@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC • Economics: Core CPI surprised to the upside, rising 0.28% in August supported by a jump in OER. We continue to expect the Fed will lower the policy rate by 50bp at next week's FOMC meeting. We expect the median dots will show 100bp of easing by YE24 and another 150bp of ea ...
Embrace data to accelerate sustainability
Kai Jie Yan Jiu Yuan· 2024-09-24 00:33
Embrace data to accelerate sustainability Contents Executive summary 4 The business case for sustainability is compelling 5 Poor reporting and data challenges obscure sustainability efforts 7 Integrate ESG data for enhanced transparency 10 Conclusion 13 Methodology 14 Partner with Capgemini 16 Ask the experts 17 Key contacts 18 Acknowledgments 19 Endnotes 20 2 Embrace Data to Accelerate Sustainability Introduction As the planet warms, climaterelated disasters and illnesses are becoming more frequent. The co ...