市公司 报告原因:有业绩公布需要点评 (维持) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 11 月 24 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 149.40 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9079.42 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 176.00/123.70 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,201.88 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 798.27 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.9103 | 博快递-W 盈利改善与行业分化加剧有望共振 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: 资料来源：Bloomberg 不断运输 2025 年 11 月 25 日 相关研究 证券分析师 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王易 A0230525050001 wanqyi@swsresearch.com 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 联系人 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 投资要点: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2] Core Insights - The company reported a 5% growth in adjusted net profit for Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 11.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [5][8] - The express delivery industry is experiencing stable growth, with the company maintaining its market share and achieving a volume of 9.6 billion parcels in Q3, a 9.8% increase year-on-year [6] - The company aims to balance service quality, business scale, and profitability, with projected net profits of 9.28 billion yuan, 10.09 billion yuan, and 10.91 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 5.3%, 8.7%, and 8.1% respectively [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company's operating costs were 8.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, while gross profit was 2.96 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year [7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 11.54 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.75 [10][11] - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 48.94 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10.53% [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 11.865 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.506 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [7] - The report highlights that the company's volume and profit both increased in Q3, driven by industry-wide efforts to reduce competition and improve pricing, suggesting continued improvement in Q4 [7] - The report notes a downward trend in the express delivery industry's growth rate, with ZTO Express expected to gain market share and improve profitability amid increasing industry differentiation [7] - The profit forecast for ZTO Express has been raised, with adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 now at 9.54 billion, 10.15 billion, and 11.40 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -6%, 6%, and 12% [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 38.419 billion yuan - 2024: 44.281 billion yuan - 2025E: 48.669 billion yuan - 2026E: 54.593 billion yuan - 2027E: 61.181 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 9.006 billion yuan - 2024: 10.150 billion yuan - 2025E: 9.540 billion yuan - 2026E: 10.149 billion yuan - 2027E: 11.399 billion yuan - The report indicates a net asset return rate of 14.52% for 2023, projected to decline to 13.33% in 2024, before gradually increasing to 15.27% by 2027 [6][7]

2025 年 11 月 25 日 | 朱吉翔 | | | --- | --- | | H70138@capital.com.tw | | | 目标价(港币) | 55.0 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | | 电子 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/11/24) | | | | 38.66 | | 恒生指数(2025/11/24) | | | 25,716.5 | | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 60.15/27.2 | | | | 总发行股数(百万) | | | 26,043.33 | | | H 股数(百万) | | | 21,531.78 | | | H 市值(亿元) | | | 5,127.34 | | | | 方舟信托(香港) | | | | | 主要股东 | | | 有限公司 | | | | | | (23.93%) | | | 每股净值(元) | | | | 10.20 | | 股价/账面净值 | | | | 3.79 | | 一个月 | 三个月 | | | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) 38.07% | -27.74 | ...

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·专业零售(HS) 名创优品（09896.HK） 2025 三季报点评：同店强劲收入同比+28%， TOP TOY 加速成长，期待 Q4 旺季表现 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 11,473 | 16,994 | 21,305 | 25,961 | 30,963 | | 同比（%） | 13.76 | 48.12 | 25.37 | 21.85 | 19.27 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1,769 | 2,618 | 2,262 | 3,052 | 4,014 | | 同比（%） | 177.19 | 47.97 | (13.58) | 34.90 | 31.53 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万元） | 2,357 | 2,721 | 2,901 | 3,551 | 4,167 | | 同比（%） | 109.65 | 15.44 | 6.61 | 22 ...

C o m p a n y U p d a t e C h i n a R e s e a r c h D e p t . 2025 年 11 月 25 日 沈嘉婕 | H70455@capital.com.tw | | --- | | 目标价(港币) 65 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/11/24) | | | 50.00 | | 恒生指数(2025/11/24) | | | 25,716.5 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | | 73.5/27.7 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | | 1,421.81 | | H 股数(百万) | | | 1,131.05 | | H 市值(亿元) | | | 347.61 | | 主要股东 | | | 陈爱玲(27.07%) | | 每股净值(元) | | | 9.73 | | 股价/账面净值 | | | 5.14 | | 一个月 | | 三个月 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) | 61.03% | -26.42 -13.79 | | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing an 8.2% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit of 18.2 billion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.6 billion yuan, which is a 31.8% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has a strong cash position with net cash of 153.2 billion yuan and operating cash flow of 12.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 21.7% year-on-year growth [1]. - The classic games segment performed well, contributing to a revenue of 23.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, driven by self-developed games and several agency games [6][8]. - The company has a rich pipeline of upcoming games, including titles that have already gained traction in both domestic and international markets [6][8]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 35.1 billion yuan, 38.5 billion yuan, and 42.5 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for the company is projected to grow from 103.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 130.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [2][9]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 29.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 42.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 10% [2][9]. - The report highlights a decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 20.6 in 2023 to 14.2 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over the forecast period [2][9]. Shareholder Information - The company has a total share capital of 3.168 billion shares, with a market capitalization of 67.35 billion Hong Kong dollars [3][6]. - The major shareholder, Shining Globe International Limited, holds a 45.17% stake in the company [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kuaishou-W (01024.HK) [5][3][10] Core Insights - Kuaishou-W's Q3 2025 performance shows steady improvement in profitability, with revenue reaching 35.554 billion yuan (YoY +14%), operating profit at 4.676 billion yuan (YoY +76%), and net profit at 4.488 billion yuan (YoY +37%) [1][5] - The average daily active users (DAU) for Kuaishou in Q3 2025 was 416 million (YoY +2.1%), and the average monthly active users (MAU) reached 731 million (YoY +2.4%) [1] - The company has launched the Keling 2.5 Turbo model, which ranked first in global generative video models, contributing over 300 million yuan in revenue in Q3 2025 [2] - Kuaishou's core business revenue, primarily from online marketing services and e-commerce, grew by 19.2% YoY, with online marketing service revenue at 20.1 billion yuan (YoY +14%) [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Kuaishou from 2025 to 2027 are 143.103 billion yuan, 157.436 billion yuan, and 171.330 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 12.8%, 10.0%, and 8.8% respectively [3][4] - Adjusted net profit estimates for the same period are 17.720 billion yuan, 20.869 billion yuan, and 23.616 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.6%, 17.8%, and 13.2% respectively [4][3] - The report indicates an expected EPS of 4.10 yuan in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 15.2 [4][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK) [1] Core Views - Baidu's AI infrastructure capabilities are leading, and the company is expected to see significant commercialization opportunities in its AI business [1][8] - The company's AI cloud business is experiencing rapid growth, driven by strong demand for AI solutions and the advantages of its full-stack AI capabilities [7][8] - Baidu's AI native marketing services are increasingly penetrating traditional advertising, contributing to revenue growth [7][8] - The autonomous driving business is accelerating its globalization, which is anticipated to become a new growth curve for the company [7][8] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue projections for Baidu are as follows: - 2023: 134,598 million - 2024: 133,125 million - 2025: 129,495 million - 2026: 136,140 million - 2027: 142,409 million - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are expected to be 8.83% in 2023, -1.09% in 2024, -2.73% in 2025, 5.13% in 2026, and 4.60% in 2027 [1][9] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 20,315 million - 2024: 23,760 million - 2025: 21,391 million - 2026: 18,840 million - 2027: 21,682 million - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 168.75% in 2023, 16.96% in 2024, -9.97% in 2025, -11.93% in 2026, and 15.08% in 2027 [1][9] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: 28,747 million - 2024: 27,002 million - 2025: 19,430 million - 2026: 21,714 million - 2027: 24,742 million - Year-on-year growth rates for Non-GAAP net profit are expected to be 39.01% in 2023, -6.07% in 2024, -28.04% in 2025, 11.76% in 2026, and 13.95% in 2027 [1][9] Market Data - The closing price of Baidu's stock is 111.80 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 226,525.83 million HKD [5][6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 13.92 for the current year and 11.91 for the next year [1][9]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 物流 中通快递-W(02057) 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日 25Q3 调整后净利润同比+5.0%，上调至"买入"评级 ——中通快递 2025 三季报点评 投资要点 ❑ 2025 年 Q3 业绩：调整后净利润同比+2.0% 2025Q3 公司实现营业收入 118.6 亿元，同比+11.1%，毛利为 29.6 亿元，同比减 少 11.4%，调整后净利润 25.1 亿元，同比+5.0%。 ❑ 25Q3 快递业务收入 110.2 亿元，同比+11.6%。该增长是由于包裹量增长 9.8%及 单票价格增长 1.7%带动。由直销机构产生的直客业务收入增长 141.2%，这主要 得益于电商退货包裹量的增加。货运代理服务收入较 2024 年同期下降 7.4%。物 料销售收入主要包括电子热敏纸面单销售收入，增长 0.5%。25Q3 经营活动产生 的现金流为人民币 32 亿元，同比基本持平，资本支出为 11.9 亿元。 ❑ 25Q3 经营数据：市场份额有所提升，逆向件量持续高增 25Q3 公司快递量完成 95.7 亿件，同比+9.8%，市场份额为 19.4%。散件业务量 增长势头依 ...