投资收益改善叠加税收政策影响，盈利大幅提振 中国太平(0966) ——中国太平 2025 年年度业绩预增公告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 李嘉木(分析师) | 021-38038619 | lijiamu@gtht.com | S0880524030003 | 本报告导读： 中国太平发布 2025 年年度业绩预增公告，预计净利润同比增长 215%-225%，主要 受益于投资收益改善以及税收政策共同影响，维持"增持"。 投资要点： 催化剂：长端利率企稳；权益市场回暖。 风险提示：长端利率下行；权益市场波动；客需持续性有限。 | 财务摘要(百万港元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险服务收入 | 107,489 | 111,268 | 117, ...

京东集团（9618.HK）2025 年四季报前瞻点评 四季度业绩筑底，政策利好与业务优化共促 26 年修复 glmszqdatemark 推荐 维持评级 当前价格： 113.60 港元 [Table_Author] 分析师 孔蓉 | 执业证书： S0590525110014 | | | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | kongrong@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 曹睿 | | 执业证书： S0590525110018 | | | 邮箱： | caorui@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -30% -7% 17% 40% 2025/1 2025/7 2026/1 京东集团-SW 恒生指数 相关研究 1． 京东集团（9618.HK）2025 年三季报点评： Q3 营 收 超 预 期 增 长 ， 利 润 短 期 承 压 -2025/11/18 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1,158,819 | ...

投资收益改善叠加税收政策影响，盈利大幅提振 中国太平(0966) ——中国太平 2025 年年度业绩预增公告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 李嘉木(分析师) | 021-38038619 | lijiamu@gtht.com | S0880524030003 | 本报告导读： 中国太平发布 2025 年年度业绩预增公告，预计净利润同比增长 215%-225%，主要 受益于投资收益改善以及税收政策共同影响，维持"增持"。 投资要点： 催化剂：长端利率企稳；权益市场回暖。 风险提示：长端利率下行；权益市场波动；客需持续性有限。 | 财务摘要(百万港元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险服务收入 | 107,489 | 111,268 | 117, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) [1] Core Views - 康耐特光学's subsidiary, 朝日光学, is set to establish a joint venture with 歌尔光学 to develop and sell resin lenses and optical waveguide lenses for AI/AR/VR/MR glasses, with respective shareholdings of 30% and 70% [1] - The formation of this joint venture is seen as a strategic alliance that enhances 康耐特光学's position in the supply chain and strengthens its capabilities in providing comprehensive solutions, transitioning from a lens solution provider to a key player in the smart glasses ecosystem [8] - The company is actively expanding its smart glasses business, with increasing collaborations with overseas clients and successful project deliveries to domestic clients, indicating a positive market response [8] - The report forecasts 康耐特光学's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47, 38, and 31 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 康耐特光学 are 2,061 million RMB for 2024, increasing to 3,380 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% to 19.2% [3] - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.0% to 25.0% over the same period, indicating strong profitability growth [3] - The target price for 康耐特光学 is set at 69.36 HKD, with the current price at 62.05 HKD, suggesting an upside potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) [1] Core Views - 康耐特光学's subsidiary, 朝日光学, is set to establish a joint venture with 歌尔光学 to develop, produce, and sell resin lenses and optical waveguide lenses for AI/AR/VR/MR glasses, with respective shareholdings of 30% and 70% [1] - The strategic alliance is expected to enhance 康耐特光学's position in the smart glasses market, transitioning from a "lens solution provider" to a key player in the smart glasses ecosystem, thereby strengthening its competitive advantage in the supply chain and leading industry technology paths [8] - The company is actively expanding its smart glasses projects, with increasing collaborations with overseas clients and successful product deliveries to domestic clients, indicating a positive market response [8] - The investment suggestion highlights 康耐特光学 as a leading lens manufacturer with a promising second growth curve in smart glasses, projecting net profits of 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47, 38, and 31 [8][9] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 康耐特光学 are 2,061 million, 2,347 million, 2,835 million, and 3,380 million yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 13.9%, 20.8%, and 19.2% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 428 million, 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 31.0%, 31.7%, 23.3%, and 25.0% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.89, 1.18, 1.45, and 1.81 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [3] - The target price for 康耐特光学 is set at 69.36 HKD, with the current price at 62.05 HKD [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Operation" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The AI investment will primarily manifest in R&D expenses, projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming segment is projected to generate revenue of CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][15][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising efficiency [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, primarily driven by payment services [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 194.6 billion, with a 13% year-on-year increase. Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at CNY 68.1 billion, up 15% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [4][10][11] - The expected Non-IFRS net profit margin is 34% for Q4 2025 [10] Gaming Business - The gaming revenue forecast for Q4 2025 is CNY 58 billion, with an 18% year-on-year growth. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, while overseas game revenue is projected to increase by 22% [5][21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, marking an 18% year-on-year growth. AI-driven enhancements are expected to improve advertising efficiency significantly [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, with a 9% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by payment services [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Action" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The R&D expenses related to AI are projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming revenue is projected to reach CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025 [20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Tencent's Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be CNY 68.1 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year. The Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 34% [10][11] - The overall revenue for 2025 is forecasted to be CNY 752 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [11][30] Gaming Sector - The gaming business is expected to generate CNY 58 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% [5][21] - Upcoming game releases, including "Delta Action" and "Future of Counterattack," are anticipated to enhance revenue streams [21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, with an 18% year-on-year increase. AI-driven advertising solutions are expected to improve operational efficiency for advertisers [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with expected revenue of CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025. The growth is primarily driven by payment services and the introduction of AI applications in WeChat mini-programs [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its investment in flash sales while maintaining rapid growth in AI cloud services [1] - Revenue for FY2026Q3 is projected to reach 292.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, primarily due to a slowdown in e-commerce revenue growth [7] - The report anticipates that Alibaba Cloud's revenue will grow by 35.0% year-on-year, reaching 42.85 billion yuan in the same quarter, driven by strong demand for AI computing power and services [7] - The company aims to become the absolute leader in the instant retail market through its flash sales initiative, with improvements in GMV and AOV expected [7] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are set at 101.53 billion, 141.56 billion, and 184.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 28.4, 20.4, and 15.6 times [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for FY2024A to FY2028E are as follows: 941.17 billion, 996.35 billion, 1,068.58 billion, 1,158.75 billion, and 1,269.02 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.34%, 5.86%, 7.25%, 8.44%, and 9.52% respectively [1] - The report forecasts a decline in attributable net profit for FY2026 to 82.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.49% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in FY2027 and FY2028 [1] - The latest diluted EPS for FY2026 is projected at 4.33 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 34.94 times [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report anticipates that Alibaba's total revenue for FY2026Q3 will reach 292.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, primarily due to a slowdown in e-commerce revenue growth. The company is expected to continue investing in flash sales, which will pressure profits, with an adjusted EBITA forecast of 30.61 billion yuan and an EBITA margin of 10.5% for the quarter [7] - Alibaba Cloud is projected to achieve a revenue of 42.85 billion yuan in the same quarter, reflecting a robust year-on-year growth of 35.0%, driven by strong demand for AI computing power and services. The EBITA margin for Alibaba Cloud is expected to remain stable at around 9.0% [7] - The report maintains Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 at 101.53 billion yuan, 141.56 billion yuan, and 184.65 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 28.4, 20.4, and 15.6 times [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Alibaba are as follows: - FY2024A: 941.17 billion yuan - FY2025A: 996.35 billion yuan - FY2026E: 1,068.58 billion yuan - FY2027E: 1,158.75 billion yuan - FY2028E: 1,269.02 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for total revenue are expected to be: - FY2024A: 8.34% - FY2025A: 5.86% - FY2026E: 7.25% - FY2027E: 8.44% - FY2028E: 9.52% [1][8] - The projected net profit figures are: - FY2024A: 80.01 billion yuan - FY2025A: 130.11 billion yuan - FY2026E: 82.64 billion yuan - FY2027E: 122.87 billion yuan - FY2028E: 166.01 billion yuan [1][8]

[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨李宁（02331.HK） [Table_Title] 短期零售承压，2026 年稳健修复 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 李宁发布 2025Q4 运营数据，Q4 全渠道流水低单下滑，线下渠道中单下滑（其中直营渠道低 单下滑，批发渠道中单下滑），电商渠道持平。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524110001 SFC：BUU942 于旭辉 柯睿 陈信志 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 李宁（02331.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 短期零售承压，2026 年稳健修复 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 李宁发布 2025Q4 运营数据，Q4 全渠道流水低单下滑，线下渠道中单下滑（其中直营渠道低 单下滑，批发渠道中单下滑），电商渠道持平。 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2026-01-20 港股研究丨公司点评 [Table_ ...