证券研究报告 非银金融 | 多元金融 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 证券分析师 陆韵婷 SAC：S1350525050002 luyunting@huayuanstock.com 沈晨 SAC：S1350525090002 shenchen@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 2025 | 年 | 11 | 月 19 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | | | 15.03 | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | | 20.30/6.84 | | | | 元） | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | | 11,942.77 | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | | | 11,942.77 | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | 46.14 | | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | | | | | | OSL 集团(00863.HK) 投资评级： 买入（首次） ——新业务不断开拓的数字资产 ...

广告&电商略超预期，可灵收入超 3 亿元 2025 年 11 月 20 日 公司研究 分业务来看：1）线上营销服务业务略超预期：3Q25 实现收入 201 亿元，同 比+14%（vs 一致预期 198.7 亿元）。端到端生成式推荐大模型 OneRec 与 生成式强化学习出价模型 G4RL 协同提效，为国内线上营销服务收入带来约 4–5%增量；AIGC 营销素材推动消耗金额突破 30 亿元。UAX 全自动投放解 决方案在外循环的消耗渗透率达 70%以上；全站推产品的营销消耗占内循环 消耗比例提升至 65%以上。行业端，除生活服务行业外，以短剧为代表的内 容消费行业也是驱动外循环营销服务收入持续增长的主要动力。2）其他服务 （含电商）超预期：3Q25 实现收入 59 亿元，同比+41.3%（vs 一致预期 56.6 亿元）。电商 GMV 基本符合预期：电商 GMV 达 3850 亿元，同比+15.2%（vs 一致预期 3839 亿元），泛货架电商 GMV 占比超 32%。平台通过智能工具、 AIGC 素材生成能力、KOL 赋能以及多元场景运营，持续推动商家自然增长、 提升复购率并增强流量与销售转化；端到端生成式检 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][11] Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its external sales, with a notable recovery in overseas markets, while domestic sales are expected to stabilize [8] - The company's revenue for FY26H1 was HKD 8.045 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, but the decline has narrowed significantly compared to previous periods [7] - The gross profit margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 40.4%, benefiting from cost control and operational efficiency [7][8] Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue forecast for the upcoming years is as follows: - 2024A: HKD 18.411 billion - 2025A: HKD 16.903 billion - 2026E: HKD 16.953 billion - 2027E: HKD 17.631 billion - 2028E: HKD 18.513 billion - The year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected to be -8% for 2025A, 0% for 2026E, 4% for 2027E, and 5% for 2028E [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted as follows: - 2024A: HKD 2.302 billion - 2025A: HKD 2.063 billion - 2026E: HKD 2.193 billion - 2027E: HKD 2.321 billion - 2028E: HKD 2.433 billion - The year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected to be -10% for 2025A, 6% for 2026E, 6% for 2027E, and 5% for 2028E [2] Market Performance - Domestic sales in the Chinese market for FY26H1 were HKD 4.203 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.5%, but the decline has significantly narrowed compared to FY25H2 [7] - Online sales showed strong performance with a year-on-year increase of 13.6%, while offline sales decreased by 12.3% [7] - The North American market revenue for FY26H1 was HKD 2.161 billion, a slight increase of 0.3%, demonstrating strong resilience amid rising international trade barriers [5] - Revenue from Europe and other markets for FY26H1 was HKD 0.765 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [5] Cost and Margin Analysis - The overall gross profit margin increased to 40.4%, benefiting from a decrease in average unit costs of key raw materials such as leather, chemicals, and steel [8] - However, the company faced increased tariff costs for exports to the United States, which rose from HKD 6.65 million to HKD 78.83 million year-on-year [8]

投资评级:买入(首次) 核心观点 中式烟火气，性价比新徽菜龙头进军千店 小菜园(00999) 证券研究报告 酒店餐饮 / 公司深度研究报告 / 2025.11.20 | 基本数据 | 2025-11-19 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元) | 10.26 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 11.77 | | 每股净资产(元) | 2.02 | | 总股本(亿股) | 11.77 | 最近 12 月市场表现 -15% -4% 7% 17% 28% 38% 小菜园 恒生指数 分析师 耿荣晨 SAC 证书编号：S0160525070002 gengrc@ctsec.com 分析师 周诗琪 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060006 zhousq@ctsec.com 相关报告 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 4,549 | 5,210 | 6,080 | 7,603 | 9, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target valuation of HKD 110 billion, corresponding to a 20x P/E for 2026 and 0.9x P/S for 2026, with a target price of HKD 77 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong growth in both domestic and international markets, with Q3 sales reaching 174,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 102%, leading to a revenue growth of 97.3% to CNY 19.45 billion [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 14.5%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to scale effects, product mix optimization, and ongoing cost management [1]. - The company aims for a sales target of 1 million units and a profit of CNY 5 billion by 2026, supported by new model launches and an expanding sales network [2][4]. Sales and Revenue Growth - Q3 sales included 17,397 units exported and 156,000 units sold domestically, with the newly launched B01 model achieving over 10,000 deliveries for three consecutive months [2][3]. - The company plans to introduce four new models by 2026, enhancing its product lineup across various price segments [2]. International Expansion - The company is the leading new force in exports, with Q3 exports totaling 17,397 units and a cumulative export of 37,772 units for the first three quarters [3]. - Strong overseas demand is evident, with October orders reaching 12,000 units and expected to exceed 15,000 units in November [3]. - The company has established over 700 sales and service points across 30 international markets, with plans for local production in Malaysia and Europe by 2026 [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts sales of 610,000, 1,020,000, and 1,320,000 units for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with projected revenues of CNY 67.54 billion, CNY 112.95 billion, and CNY 151.02 billion [4][5]. - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 1 billion, CNY 5.07 billion, and CNY 11.28 billion, respectively, with net profit margins improving to 1.5%, 4.5%, and 7.5% [5][12].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Baidu's Q3 2025 profits exceeded expectations, with significant revenue contributions from AI [6][7] - The AI search transformation is stabilizing, and new business segments like AI marketing and cloud services are driving revenue growth [6][8] - The company has revised its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards, reflecting a positive outlook on AI and cloud contributions [6] Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, Baidu reported revenues of 311.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7%, but slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations [7] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was 37.7 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, yet better than the expected 26.3 billion yuan [7] - The core online marketing revenue decreased by 18% year-on-year, attributed to macroeconomic impacts and internal search transformation adjustments [7] - AI cloud revenue grew by 33% year-on-year to 42 billion yuan, with AI high-performance computing subscription revenue increasing by 128% [7] - The projected non-GAAP net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 19.55 billion, 21.91 billion, and 24.82 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of -27.6%, +12.1%, and +13.3% [9] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 15.0 for 2025, 13.4 for 2026, and 11.8 for 2027 [6][9] - The projected diluted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.8, 7.6, and 8.6 yuan respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3] Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a net profit of 680 million yuan in Q3 2025, compared to a loss of 1.37 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][8] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 22.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.34%, with a gross profit margin growth of 34.2% [1][8] - The advertising business has performed exceptionally well, with a revenue of 4.45 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 20% year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in performance-based advertising [2][16] - User engagement metrics are strong, with monthly active users (MAU) reaching 376 million and daily active users (DAU) at 117 million, both marking historical highs [12][1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.69 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth [1][8] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was 786 million yuan, with a remarkable increase of 233% year-on-year and 40% quarter-on-quarter [1][8] - The company generated operating cash flow of 5.308 billion yuan, up from 4.614 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][8] User Metrics - The platform's MAU and DAU grew by 8% and 9% year-on-year, respectively, indicating strong user retention and engagement [12][1] - Average daily usage time per active user reached 112 minutes, a 6% increase year-on-year [12][1] - Monthly paying users increased by 17% year-on-year, totaling 35 million [12][1] Advertising and Gaming Revenue - The advertising segment's revenue in Q3 was 2.57 billion yuan, a 23% increase year-on-year, benefiting from a shift towards performance-based advertising [2][16] - Mobile gaming revenue for Q3 was 1.511 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year due to high base effects from previous successful titles [2][18] - The company plans to launch new games to enhance its gaming portfolio, with promising titles expected in the near future [2][18] Future Outlook - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 1.223 billion yuan, 2.041 billion yuan, and 3.251 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][19] - The anticipated growth in advertising, gaming, and value-added services, supported by advancements in AI technology, suggests a positive long-term outlook for the company [3][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 89.40, up from the previous HKD 85.28 [7][5][23]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with revenue growth of 13% year-on-year to RMB 35.6 billion, surpassing consensus estimates by 1% [1]. - The adjusted net profit for Q3 increased by 26% year-on-year to RMB 5 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.3% [1]. - The management anticipates that the revenue for the company's AI product, 可灵, could reach USD 1.4 billion by 2025 [1]. - The report highlights a slowdown in e-commerce monetization, despite a strong performance in advertising and live streaming [1][5]. Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Revenue for Q3 was RMB 35.6 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 0.3 percentage points to 54.7% [1]. - Adjusted net profit rose 26% year-on-year to RMB 5 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.3% [1]. - Revenue breakdown: live streaming, advertising, and e-commerce grew by 3%, 14%, and 41% respectively [1]. Advertising and E-commerce - Q3 advertising revenue increased by 14%, slightly above expectations, with a 16% growth when excluding overseas revenue [3]. - E-commerce and other revenues accelerated by 41% year-on-year, with GMV growth of 15% [4]. - The company invested RMB 18 billion in platform traffic incentives during the Double 11 shopping festival, which met expectations [4]. Future Outlook - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted, with a slight decrease of 0.6% for 2025 due to slowing e-commerce consumption, while 2026-2027 forecasts were increased due to AI-driven advertising growth [5][19]. - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 20.6 billion, RMB 22.1 billion, and RMB 25.8 billion respectively [5][19]. Valuation - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, assigning a per-share value of HKD 89.40, reflecting the potential for increased revenue contributions from the AI product [23][24]. - The valuation for the advertising business is set at HKD 68.96 per share, while e-commerce and live streaming are valued at HKD 11.41 and HKD 9.02 per share respectively [23].

Investment Rating - The report rates the company as Outperform, with a target price of 2.94 HKD based on a 2026 PE of 25x and projected EPS of 0.09/0.12/0.15 HKD for 2025-2027 [4][13]. Core Insights - The company has shown notable growth with stable performance, achieving a revenue of 1.22 billion HKD in Q1-3 2025, a 30% year-over-year increase. Asset operation revenue rose by 16% to 783 million HKD, while asset financing revenue surged by 66% to 432 million HKD. Gross profit increased by 28% to 551 million HKD, and net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 22% to 488 million HKD. By Q3 2025, cash and financial assets totaled 8.5 billion HKD, maintaining a low asset/liability ratio of 31.5% [4][14]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast (Million HKD)**: - 2023A: 883 - 2024A: 1,215 - 2025E: 1,782 - 2026E: 2,301 - 2027E: 2,835 - Year-over-year growth rates: -44.8%, 37.5%, 46.7%, 29.1%, 23.2% [3]. - **Net Profit Forecast (Million HKD)**: - 2023A: 404 - 2024A: 410 - 2025E: 713 - 2026E: 984 - 2027E: 1,274 - Year-over-year growth rates: -56.2%, 1.6%, 73.8%, 38.0%, 29.5% [3]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - PE: 28.19 (2023A), 18.75 (2024A), 24.87 (2025E), 18.02 (2026E), 13.92 (2027E) - PB: 1.17 (2023A), 0.84 (2024A), 1.90 (2025E), 1.84 (2026E), 1.78 (2027E) [3]. Business Development - The company is rapidly advancing its robotics full-chain layout, focusing on three main areas: 1. **Investment**: Continued investment in core robotics, including companies like Yushu Technology and the establishment of an advanced materials company [15]. 2. **TO C Retail**: Launching robotics tech stores and online channels to expand market reach [15]. 3. **TO B Development**: Collaborating with IAT Automobile Technology to integrate robotics into smart manufacturing and new energy vehicle production [15]. - A significant buyback plan of 1 billion HKD is set to be executed from November 17, 2025, to December 31, 2028, reflecting the company's confidence in its value and the robotics industry [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 113.12 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.4% [7] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 11.31 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-on-year and 4.4% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The automotive segment turned profitable for the first time, with revenue from automotive and AI-related businesses reaching 29.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 199.2% [7] - High-end smartphone sales showed strong performance, with Q3 2025 smartphone revenue at 45.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.0% [7] - The IoT segment generated revenue of 27.55 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, although it saw a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28.8% [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for 2023A, 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 270.97 billion yuan, 365.91 billion yuan, 474.58 billion yuan, 591.85 billion yuan, and 669.07 billion yuan respectively [1] - Net profit projections for the same years are 17.48 billion yuan, 23.66 billion yuan, 45.32 billion yuan, 52.96 billion yuan, and 65.61 billion yuan respectively [1] - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 45.3 billion yuan, 53.0 billion yuan, and 65.6 billion yuan, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's performance [7] Market Position - The company has expanded its automotive sales network to 402 stores and 209 service points, covering 119 and 125 cities respectively [7] - The market share for smartphones priced above 3,000 yuan in mainland China increased by 4.1 percentage points to 24.1% [7] - The report highlights the company's ongoing efforts in high-end product development, with the new Xiaomi 17 series achieving a 30% increase in sales compared to the previous generation [7]