公司深度研究 | 十月稻田 厨房主食中的新消费 十月稻田（09676.HK）首次覆盖报告 所处行业空间较大且持续增长，集中度有望提升。公司所处的厨房主食行业 为万亿以上规模的大行业，且近年来持续增长，公司重点布局的大米、玉米 等品类均为千亿级大行业且增长势头明显。行业中的预包装产品、优质产品 有较好的增长且增长势头显著快于行业整体。当前该行业市场集中度很低， 但预包装产品、优质产品、东北大米产品等的集中度显著高于行业整体，预 计随着上述关键品类的快速增长，行业集中度有望提升，公司作为重要的行 业龙头之一有望显著获益。 产品矩阵丰富，多元化渠道覆盖全国。公司旗舰品牌十月稻田、柴火大院已 在京东等平台复购率高于行业整体，并依托多品牌构建了全面且互补的产品 矩阵，满足不同类别消费者的个性化需求。公司建立多元化、涵盖线上线下 的销售网络，在新渠道保持领先，在线下渠道和经销商建立了深厚的合作关 系。公司通过在核心产区的五大生产基地，结合遍布多区域的区域仓，形成 辐射全国多数区域的供应链能力。 投资建议：我们预测 25-27 年公司营收分别为 69.94 亿元/84.35 亿元/99.39 亿元，同比+22%/+21%/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 286.9, representing a potential upside of 32.0% from the current price of HKD 217.4 [1][5][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the company is not solely reliant on the popularity of its Labubu IP, but rather operates as a platform for creating and commercializing multiple IPs. The ability to launch new successful IPs is seen as a key competitive advantage [5]. - Recent sales trends in the U.S. market have shown a recovery, with expectations for continued growth during the holiday season. The report suggests that the recent slowdown in sales was largely due to pre-sales in previous months [5]. - The company has significant growth potential in the North American and European markets, which currently represent a small portion of total revenue. The report highlights the potential for expansion through physical retail stores in these regions [5]. - The current valuation is considered attractive, with a P/E ratio of 15 times the estimated earnings for 2026, indicating high value for investors [5]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with estimated revenues of RMB 38,003 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 191.5% [7][10]. - Net profit is expected to reach RMB 12,920 million in 2025, representing a significant increase of 313.4% compared to the previous year [7][10]. - The report outlines a steady improvement in profit margins, with gross profit margins projected to rise to 70.8% by 2025 [10][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock has experienced volatility, but recent data suggests a recovery in market sentiment, with short-selling activity decreasing [5]. - The report notes that the company's sales in the domestic market have shown impressive growth, with online sales increasing by 212% in the first half of 2025 [11]. Regional Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 440% increase in overseas revenue, with North America showing a staggering growth rate of 1,142% [11]. - The report indicates that the company has only a limited number of retail stores in North America and Europe, suggesting significant room for growth in these markets [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The company reported a narrowing loss in Q3 2025, with a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.38 billion yuan, narrowing by 78.9% year-on-year and 20.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][6] - The company achieved a vehicle delivery volume of 116,000 units in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4%. The automotive business revenue reached 18.05 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 105.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [6] - The company is expanding its collaboration with Volkswagen, which has become a strategic partner for the second-generation VLA model, indicating potential growth in revenue from R&D services [6][7] - The launch of the Kunpeng Super Range Extender is expected to open new growth opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector [6][7] - The second-generation VLA model was released, which enhances the company's capabilities in physical AI, with plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026 [7] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 76.93 billion yuan, 117.47 billion yuan, and 144.84 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.2%, 52.7%, and 23.3% [5][10] - The net profit is expected to improve from -1.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 4.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [5][10] - The gross margin for the automotive business is projected to increase from 18.2% in 2025 to 20.5% in 2027, indicating improved profitability [5][10] Delivery and Revenue Guidance - The company has provided a Q4 delivery guidance of 125,000 to 132,000 units, corresponding to a revenue guidance of 21.5 billion to 23 billion yuan [6] - In October, the company delivered 42,013 vehicles, with an expected average monthly delivery of 41,000 to 45,000 units for November and December [6]

小鹏汽车（9868.HK）系列点评九 2025Q3 盈利能力改善 具身智能开启新时代 2025 年 11 月 18 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：崔琰 分析师：乔木 执业证号：S0100523110002 执业证号：S0100524100002 邮箱：cuiyan@glms.com.cn 邮箱：qiaomu@glms.com.cn ➢ 事件：公司发布 2025Q3 财报：2025Q3 实现单季营收 203.8 亿元，同比/ 环比分别为+101.8%/+11.5%。2025Q3 汽车业务毛利率为+13.1%，同比/环比 分别为+4.5pts/-1.2pts。2025Q3 non-GAAP 归母净利润为-1.5 亿元，同环比 减亏 90.1%/60.6%。 ➢ 毛利率超预期 经营质量持续优化 营 收 端 ： 2025Q3 实 现 单 季 营 收 入 203.8 亿 元 ， 同 比 / 环 比 分 别 为 +101.8%/+11.5%。其中 2025Q3 汽车业务收入为 180.5 亿元，同比/环比分别 为+105.3%/+6.9%，主要是由于新推出车型的交付量增加。其他业务方面， 2025Q3 营收由 ...

研究报告 Research Report 18 Nov 2025 小鹏汽车-W XPeng (9868 HK) (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 盈利修复延续，技术服务放量成为新增长点。公司发布三季报， 3Q25 实现营收 203.8 亿元稍逊市场预期（BBG consensus：204.5 亿），同/环比增 102%/12%；净亏损收窄至 3.8 亿元，同比缩窄 79%、环比改善 20%。季度毛利率升至 20.1%，同比提升 5 个百分 点、环比提升 3 个百分点，其中国内整车业务毛利率为 13.1% （ BBG consensus： 14.4%） ， 同比 增 4.5pcts、 环 比 小 幅回 落 1.2pcts；服务及其他业务利润率高达 74.6%，构成毛利改善的主要 增量，主要来自向车企提供的技术研发服务，尤其是对大众的项 目贡献突出。展望 2026，公司与大众的合作将从研发服务延伸至 量产车型落地，首款合作车型计划于明年初上市，并逐步深化至 芯片、核心技术授权等更高价值链环节，意味着小鹏未来从大众 获取的授权收入有望继续扩大，协同价值将进一步释 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q3 performance of Geely Automobile met expectations, with total revenue of 89.19 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.82 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 59.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.6% [2] - The company achieved total sales of 761,000 units in Q3, with a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.9%. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 117,000 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 16.6%, showing a year-on-year improvement due to scale effects and product mix enhancement, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline [2] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025 to 18.1 billion yuan (previously 15 billion yuan) due to strong sales performance in the first three quarters and the successful launch of new models [2] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 179.204 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.11%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 240.194 billion yuan, growing by 34.03% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 5.308 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.91%. The forecast for 2024 is 16.632 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 213.32% [1] Earnings Per Share (EPS) and Valuation - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is projected at 0.52 yuan per share, with a forecast of 1.64 yuan for 2024 and 1.79 yuan for 2025 [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 29.84 for 2023, decreasing to 9.52 for 2024 and further to 8.76 for 2025 [1] Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 325.928 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 66.04% [9] - The cash flow from operating activities for 2025 is expected to be 29.426 billion yuan, indicating a healthy cash generation capability [9]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月18日 六福集团（00590.HK） 优于大市 低估值港资珠宝龙头，产品创新+渠道变革注入新动能 一线港资珠宝品牌，经营提效同店向好。公司 1991 年成立于香港，以六福 珠宝为主品牌，并拥有金至尊、六福精品廊等多品牌矩阵。2025 财年实现 收入 133.41 亿港元，其中内地占比 39.5%，中国香港、中国澳门及海外 占比 60.5%；线下自营+电商的零售收入占比 82.7%；一口价黄金产品占 比预计超过 15%且持续提升。虽然在面对金价过快上涨和消费环境变化 下，公司 2025 财年业绩短暂承压，但通过产品创新、渠道提效、品牌 力强化等措施，最新的 2025 年的二/三季度，公司整体同店销售已经分 别实现 5%和 10%的增长。 需求切换与工艺创新共振，饰品消费逻辑已形成"为时尚+保值双重价值买 单"。设计工艺的突破让黄金的时尚属性显著提升，悦己消费需求场景 得以打开，具备强产品设计的一口价黄金首饰实现"时尚+保值"的完 美融合。这也带动了企业毛利率实现修复增长，也将从基本面角度驱动 股价抬升。此外，文化出海伴随着商品机遇，黄金首饰蕴含渊源、故事 和中华民族的传承，海外 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Tencent Music [2][5] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 8.46 billion RMB in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, with adjusted net profit increasing by 32.6% to 2.41 billion RMB [1][5] - Online music revenue continues to grow steadily, with a 27.2% year-on-year increase to 6.97 billion RMB, driven by subscription and advertising services [5][6] - The company is actively expanding into the fan economy and concert business, enhancing its competitive advantages through collaborations and content diversification [5][6] Financial Performance - Revenue and profit growth are supported by effective cost control, with gross margin improving from 42.6% in Q3 2024 to 43.5% in Q3 2025 [5][6] - The online music subscription revenue reached 4.5 billion RMB, up 17.2% year-on-year, driven by an increase in ARPPU from 10.8 RMB to 11.9 RMB [5][6] - The company expects revenues to reach 32.66 billion RMB, 36.98 billion RMB, and 41.30 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at 9.60 billion RMB, 10.85 billion RMB, and 12.18 billion RMB [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - Tencent Music holds a strong position in content copyright, with a focus on enhancing user willingness to pay and optimizing membership benefits [5][6] - The company is expanding its concert business, having successfully hosted multiple performances in various cities, attracting over 150,000 attendees [5][6] - The introduction of interactive fan communities and exclusive artist-related benefits is expected to drive further growth in subscription rates and user engagement [5][6]

研究报告 Research Report 18 Nov 2025 零跑汽车 Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology (9863 HK) 规模效应持续释放，零跑盈利质量进入改善通道 Scale Benefits Materialize; Leapmotor Enters a Clear Margin-Improvement Cycle [Table_yemei 观点聚焦 1] Investment Focus [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 HK$54.80 目标价 HK$73.51 HTI ESG 3.5-3.3-4.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 HK$61.98bn / US$7.97bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$60.60mn 发行股票数目 1,131mn 自由流通股 (%) 60% 1 年股价最高最低值 HK$73.50-HK$27.70 注：现价 HK$54.80 为 2025 年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][7][12] Core Views - The company is expected to see sustained performance growth driven by its AI projects and cloud transformation, with a focus on enhancing its competitive edge through strategic funding and resource integration [6][7] - The planned share placement aims to introduce diverse shareholders and relocate the company's registered office to Hong Kong, which is anticipated to improve communication with mainland investors and reduce tax burdens [5][7] - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected growth rates of 43%, 32%, and 22% respectively, indicating strong financial health and potential for valuation expansion [7][8] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company reported a revenue of 8,294 million in 2023, with a projected increase to 10,558 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [8] - Net profit is expected to rise from 202 million in 2023 to 892 million by 2027, showcasing a robust growth trajectory [8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.9, 12.0, and 9.8 respectively, indicating an attractive valuation relative to earnings growth [8]