证券研究报告 六福集团 (590 HK) 港股通 定价产品及海外拓展贡献增长亮点 2025 年 11 月 28 日│中国香港 可选消费 六福集团公布 FY26H1 业绩（2025 年 4-9 月）：收入为 68.4 亿港元，同比 +25.6%；净利润为 6.0 亿港元，同比+44.1%，符合此前业绩预告（收入同 比+20-30%，净利润同比+40-50%）。集团有效的产品差异化和销售策略带 动定价首饰收入快速增长，产品结构优化、金价上升助推毛利率创历史新高， 叠加经营杠杆效应释放，净利润增速表现亮眼。公司拟派中期股息 0.55 港 元/股，派息比率为 52%，持续积极分红回馈股东。此外，10 月 1 日至 11 月 21 日，集团中国内地、中国港澳及海外市场同店均实现双位数增长，其 中，中国内地市场较 FY26Q2 明显改善，有望延续进一步向好势头。维持 "买入"评级。 得益于有效的产品差异化策略，定价首饰产品收入高增 1）分产品看，FY26H1 黄金及铂金产品营收 41.0 亿港元/同比+11.0%，定 价首饰产品营收 22.8 亿港元/同比+67.9%，占整体销售额的比重同比提升 8.8pct 至 35. ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 理想汽车-W（02015.HK）2025 年三季报点评 推荐（下调） MEGA 召回拖累净利，公司进入新一轮发展期 港股公司 事项： 理想汽车发布 2025 年三季报，3Q25 实现营收 274 亿元，同比-36%，环比- 10%；归母净利润-6.2 亿元，同比-34 亿元，环比-17 亿元。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 144,460 | 111,595 | 153,319 | 180,380 | | 同比增速(%) | 16.6% | -22.7% | 37.4% | 17.6% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 8,032 | 1,053 | 6,332 | 10,278 | | 同比增速(%) | -31.4% | -86.9% | 501.2% | 62.3% | | 每股盈利(元) | 3.79 | 0.49 | 2.96 | 4.80 | | 市盈率(倍) ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Huaxin Cement, targeting a price of HKD 18.34 based on a 10.5x PE for 2026 [3]. Core Insights - Huaxin Cement's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 120.73% year-on-year in Q3 2025, driven by rising domestic cement prices, reduced costs, and growth in overseas operations [4]. - The company completed the acquisition of Nigerian assets, with a transaction value of USD 773.86 million, enhancing its international presence [4]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas operations, with several projects in Africa and the completion of acquisitions in Brazil [4][11]. - The management emphasizes shareholder returns, distributing a cash dividend of CNY 0.46 per share, amounting to CNY 956.34 million, which is 40% of the projected net profit for 2025 [4]. Financial Performance and Forecast - For 2025-2027, the forecasted net profits are CNY 2.969 billion, CNY 3.312 billion, and CNY 3.671 billion, respectively, reflecting a growth trajectory [3]. - The company reported a revenue of CNY 89.86 billion in Q3 2025, a 5.95% increase year-on-year, and a total revenue of CNY 250.33 billion for the first three quarters, up 1.27% [4]. - The average selling price of cement increased by CNY 25.71 per ton to CNY 329.95 per ton, contributing to improved profitability [17]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 20.84% year-on-year, with a gross margin rate increase of 5.27 percentage points [17]. Business Development - Huaxin Cement has established a significant international footprint, with operations in 14 countries and a total cement production capacity of 136 million tons [9]. - The company is focusing on projects in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, ensuring strategic resource allocation and market growth potential [9]. - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 160.46 billion, with a net profit of CNY 11.03 billion, marking a 51.05% increase year-on-year [16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 38.986 billion for FY2026H1, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 2.534 billion, an increase of 0.1% [5] - The company is actively pursuing brand transformation and product optimization, which has led to an upward revision of profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 [5] - Same-store sales in mainland China showed a recovery with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% in FY2026H1, and a significant growth of 38.8% from October 1 to November 18, 2025 [6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For FY2026E, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of HKD 90.018 billion, with a net profit of HKD 8.247 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.4% [9] - The projected EPS for FY2026E is HKD 0.83, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.7, 14.9, and 13.7 for FY2026E, FY2027E, and FY2028E respectively [9] - The gross margin for FY2026H1 was reported at 30.5%, slightly down by 0.9 percentage points, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin products [6]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,120 | 1,649 | 2,171 | 3,407 | 4,343 | | 同比(%) | 111.22 | 47.20 | 31.63 | 56.96 | 27.49 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (4,336.63) | (481.83) | (228.12) | 58.07 | 378.66 | | 同比(%) | (107.63) | 88.89 | 52.66 | 125.46 | 552.07 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (8.95) | (0.99) | (0.47) | 0.12 | 0.78 | | P/S（现价&最新摊薄） | 12.48 | 8.48 | 6.44 | 4.10 | 3.22 | [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月 28 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (01810.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, Xiaomi achieved a record high profit with total revenue of 113.12 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 22.3% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 2.4%. Adjusted net profit reached 11.31 billion yuan, up 80.9% year-over-year and 4.4% quarter-over-quarter. The gross margin improved to 22.9%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-over-year and 0.4 percentage points quarter-over-quarter [2][4]. - The smart electric vehicle (EV) business reported its first quarterly profit, generating an operating income of 700 million yuan. In Q3 2025, the company delivered 109,000 new vehicles, with automotive revenue reaching 28.3 billion yuan and a gross margin of 25.5% [2][3]. - The smartphone and AIoT business remained stable, with smartphone revenue of 46 billion yuan and a global shipment of 43.3 million units, maintaining a market share of 13.6%. The newly launched Xiaomi 17 series saw a sales increase of approximately 30% in its first month [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2025 total revenue was 113.12 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit at 11.31 billion yuan. The gross margin was 22.9% [2][4]. - The company expects net profit for 2025-2027 to be 43 billion, 51.4 billion, and 62.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 82%, 19%, and 21% [4][5]. Business Segments - The smartphone segment generated 46 billion yuan in revenue, while the IoT and lifestyle products segment brought in 27.6 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 23.9% [3][4]. - The smart EV segment achieved a revenue of 28.3 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.5% [2][3]. Research and Development - R&D expenses reached 9.1 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 52.1%. The company continues to invest heavily in core technologies to enhance its ecosystem [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.363 billion yuan for FY2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.9%. The adjusted net profit was approximately 2.049 billion yuan, impacted by a non-cash impairment charge of 1.706 billion yuan related to goodwill and intangible assets [2][3] - The decline in gross margin to 53.3% was attributed to increased educational investment, while the net profit margin showed a smaller decline due to reduced administrative expenses and financing costs [4] - Capital expenditures significantly decreased by 45.2% to 2.66 billion yuan in FY2025, with expectations for continued decline as new educational facilities are completed [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2025 revenue reached 7.363 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. The adjusted EBITDA was 4.169 billion yuan, and the net profit was 506 million yuan, reflecting a 132.3% increase in attributable net profit [2][3] - The number of full-time students increased by 5% to 282,000, with higher education students growing by 9% to 243,000, while secondary vocational education students decreased by 15.2% to 39,000 [3] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 53.3%, while the net profit margin was 6.9%, showing a slight decline of 0.8 percentage points [4] - The company’s financial metrics indicate a net profit margin improvement due to lower administrative expenses and financing costs [4] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Capital expenditures for FY2025 were 2.66 billion yuan, down 45.2% from the previous year, with expectations for further reductions as construction projects are completed [4][5] - Adjusted revenue forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 have been revised down to 7.743 billion yuan and 8.139 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding adjusted net profit estimates of 2.172 billion yuan and 2.337 billion yuan [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for Tianyu Semiconductor (2658.HK) [4] Core Insights - The company focuses on the manufacturing of self-produced silicon carbide (SiC) wafers, which are essential raw materials for power semiconductor devices. Compared to traditional semiconductor materials like silicon, SiC offers significant performance advantages, making it suitable for high-voltage, high-temperature, and high-frequency environments [2] - According to Frost & Sullivan, the company ranks as the third-largest SiC wafer manufacturer in China, with a market share of 6.7% by revenue and 7.8% by volume as of 2024 [2] - The global market for SiC power semiconductor devices is projected to grow significantly, from USD 600 million in 2020 to USD 3.2 billion in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 49.8%. The market is expected to reach USD 15.8 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 40.5% from 2025 to 2029 [3] Summary by Sections IPO Details - The IPO price is set at HKD 58 per share, with a total fundraising amount of HKD 1.6711 billion. The total number of shares offered is approximately 3,007,050 shares, with 90% allocated for international placement and 10% for public offering [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenues for 2022, 2023, and 2024 were RMB 436.86 million, RMB 1,171.21 million, and RMB 519.62 million, respectively. The net profits for the same years were RMB 6.95 million, RMB 101.44 million, and RMB -492.45 million, indicating a decline in 2024 primarily due to reduced market prices and overseas sales of SiC wafers [3] Market Position - The company has an annual production capacity of approximately 420,000 6-inch and 8-inch wafers, making it one of the largest producers in China for these sizes [2] - The presence of Huawei's Hubble Technology as an investor is expected to provide significant growth opportunities for the company in the medium to long term [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious subscription for the company "Encounter Noodle" (2408.HK) [1][4] Core Insights - Encounter Noodle is the largest operator of Sichuan-Chongqing style noodle restaurants in China, with a network of 451 restaurants in 22 cities in mainland China and 14 in Hong Kong [2] - The Chinese noodle restaurant market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.0% from 2025 to 2029, outpacing the average growth of the Chinese fast food market at 9.0% [2] - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 8.01 billion, 11.54 billion, and 7.03 billion CNY for the fiscal years 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 91.47%, 44.21%, and 33.77% [3] - The company's net profit for the same periods is projected to be 0.46 billion, 0.61 billion, and 0.42 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of 227.63%, 32.2%, and 95.77% [3] - The current median IPO price of 6.34 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 67 for 2024, and assuming similar growth rates, a PE ratio of about 34 for 2025, indicating a high valuation [4] Summary by Sections IPO Details - The IPO price range is set between 5.64 and 7.04 HKD, with a median price of 6.34 HKD [1] - The total fundraising amount is estimated at 5.516 billion HKD [1] - The total number of shares available for subscription is 9,736,450, with 90% allocated for international placement and 10% for public offering [1] Company Performance - The company has expanded its store count significantly, with 252, 360, and 417 stores for the fiscal years 2023, 2024, and the first half of 2025, respectively [3] - Same-store sales have shown fluctuations, with a decline in 2024 attributed to price reductions, although daily orders have increased [3] - The direct restaurant profit margins have improved, reaching 12.5%, 13.3%, and 15.1% for the respective periods, benefiting from cost control and operational efficiency [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 248.49 HKD / 226.29 CNY [3][5]. Core Insights - The company's Blizzard games are gradually resuming operations, and the evergreen game "Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng" is performing excellently both domestically and internationally. The anticipated launch of "Forgotten Sea" in 2026 is expected to drive growth [3]. - The adjusted profit forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 362 billion, 398 billion, and 450 billion CNY respectively, reflecting slight adjustments based on game performance and Q3 financial results [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company expects revenues of 103,468 million CNY in 2023, growing to 138,188 million CNY by 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 12.37% from 2025 to 2027 [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 29,417 million CNY in 2023 to 44,999 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 21.98% in 2025 [4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is expected to rise from 9.29 CNY in 2023 to 14.20 CNY in 2027 [4]. - **Profit Margins**: The gross margin is projected to improve from 60.95% in 2023 to 66.19% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to stabilize around 32% [4]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of November 20, 2025, was 212.6 HKD, with a 52-week high of 248 HKD and a low of 125.99 HKD [5]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately 673,508 million HKD [5]. Game Performance Insights - The total revenue from games and related value-added services in Q3 2025 was 233 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% [10]. - The game "Dream Journey" continues to see high activity levels, and "Yan Yun Shi Liu Sheng" is expected to perform well in overseas markets in Q4 [10].