Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 792 HKD [6][5][28] Core Insights - Tencent's revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit projected to increase by 16% to 643 billion RMB [1] - Key growth drivers include the launch of multiple new games, improved advertising efficiency through AI, and enhanced support for AI mini-programs on WeChat [1][3][4] - The gaming segment is anticipated to see a 16% increase in revenue, while advertising revenue is expected to rise by 20% [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue for Q4 is projected to grow by 16%, with the new game "Counter-Strike: Future" expected to generate 35-70 billion RMB in its first year [2][12] - The game fills a gap in Tencent's PVE shooting game offerings and has already achieved over 10 million players shortly after launch [2][12][16] Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue is expected to grow by 9%, driven by a slowdown in social retail growth [3] - AI mini-programs are anticipated to enhance e-commerce and local services, with significant growth expected in 2026 [3][19] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue is projected to increase by 20%, driven by budget increases from long-tail advertisers and efficiency improvements from AI [4] - WeChat's advertising capabilities are evolving, with new features aimed at enhancing social commerce [4][19] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been slightly adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profit estimates also revised [5][24] - The target price of 792 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 21.6 for 2026, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [5][28][30]

证券研究报告 中国太平 (966 HK) 港股通 业绩预增：2025 年归母净利润同比增 长 215%-225% 2026 年 1 月 20 日│中国香港 保险 1 月 19 日，公司公布 2025 年业绩预增公告：预计 2025 年归母净利润较 2024 年增加 215%~225%，我们估计公司下半年归母净利润同比涨幅高达 723.1%-758.2%，大幅超出此前预期。根据公司公告，2025 年利润大幅增 长主要来源于投资业绩同比提升，以及所得税税收政策的一次性影响。考虑 到有韧性的 NBV 增长和投资向好，维持"买入"。 四季度投资表现强劲 根据公司公告，2025 年业绩大幅增长的主要原因之一为投资业绩高增，我 们估计保险服务业绩或相对稳定。投资端，2025 年下半年（尤其第四季度） 公司优秀的投资表现有效对冲并弥补了上半年投资业绩承压带来的不利影 响。2025 年上半年，中国太平投资业绩为负，表现为投资亏损，为公司利 润表现带来一定压力。三季度时投资收益已有所修复，根据太平人寿三季报， 前三季度太平人寿总投资收益同比增长 4%左右，带动税前利润同比增长 18%。考虑到下半年归母净利润涨幅超 700%，我 ...

投资收益改善叠加税收政策影响，盈利大幅提振 中国太平(0966) ——中国太平 2025 年年度业绩预增公告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 李嘉木(分析师) | 021-38038619 | lijiamu@gtht.com | S0880524030003 | 本报告导读： 中国太平发布 2025 年年度业绩预增公告，预计净利润同比增长 215%-225%，主要 受益于投资收益改善以及税收政策共同影响，维持"增持"。 投资要点： 催化剂：长端利率企稳；权益市场回暖。 风险提示：长端利率下行；权益市场波动；客需持续性有限。 | 财务摘要(百万港元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险服务收入 | 107,489 | 111,268 | 117, ...

京东集团（9618.HK）2025 年四季报前瞻点评 四季度业绩筑底，政策利好与业务优化共促 26 年修复 glmszqdatemark 推荐 维持评级 当前价格： 113.60 港元 [Table_Author] 分析师 孔蓉 | 执业证书： S0590525110014 | | | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | kongrong@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 曹睿 | | 执业证书： S0590525110018 | | | 邮箱： | caorui@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -30% -7% 17% 40% 2025/1 2025/7 2026/1 京东集团-SW 恒生指数 相关研究 1． 京东集团（9618.HK）2025 年三季报点评： Q3 营 收 超 预 期 增 长 ， 利 润 短 期 承 压 -2025/11/18 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 1,158,819 | ...

投资收益改善叠加税收政策影响，盈利大幅提振 中国太平(0966) ——中国太平 2025 年年度业绩预增公告点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 李嘉木(分析师) | 021-38038619 | lijiamu@gtht.com | S0880524030003 | 本报告导读： 中国太平发布 2025 年年度业绩预增公告，预计净利润同比增长 215%-225%，主要 受益于投资收益改善以及税收政策共同影响，维持"增持"。 投资要点： 催化剂：长端利率企稳；权益市场回暖。 风险提示：长端利率下行；权益市场波动；客需持续性有限。 | 财务摘要(百万港元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 保险服务收入 | 107,489 | 111,268 | 117, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) [1] Core Views - 康耐特光学's subsidiary, 朝日光学, is set to establish a joint venture with 歌尔光学 to develop and sell resin lenses and optical waveguide lenses for AI/AR/VR/MR glasses, with respective shareholdings of 30% and 70% [1] - The formation of this joint venture is seen as a strategic alliance that enhances 康耐特光学's position in the supply chain and strengthens its capabilities in providing comprehensive solutions, transitioning from a lens solution provider to a key player in the smart glasses ecosystem [8] - The company is actively expanding its smart glasses business, with increasing collaborations with overseas clients and successful project deliveries to domestic clients, indicating a positive market response [8] - The report forecasts 康耐特光学's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million RMB respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47, 38, and 31 [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 康耐特光学 are 2,061 million RMB for 2024, increasing to 3,380 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% to 19.2% [3] - The company's net profit is expected to grow at a CAGR of 31.0% to 25.0% over the same period, indicating strong profitability growth [3] - The target price for 康耐特光学 is set at 69.36 HKD, with the current price at 62.05 HKD, suggesting an upside potential [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for 康耐特光学 (02276.HK) [1] Core Views - 康耐特光学's subsidiary, 朝日光学, is set to establish a joint venture with 歌尔光学 to develop, produce, and sell resin lenses and optical waveguide lenses for AI/AR/VR/MR glasses, with respective shareholdings of 30% and 70% [1] - The strategic alliance is expected to enhance 康耐特光学's position in the smart glasses market, transitioning from a "lens solution provider" to a key player in the smart glasses ecosystem, thereby strengthening its competitive advantage in the supply chain and leading industry technology paths [8] - The company is actively expanding its smart glasses projects, with increasing collaborations with overseas clients and successful product deliveries to domestic clients, indicating a positive market response [8] - The investment suggestion highlights 康耐特光学 as a leading lens manufacturer with a promising second growth curve in smart glasses, projecting net profits of 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 47, 38, and 31 [8][9] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 康耐特光学 are 2,061 million, 2,347 million, 2,835 million, and 3,380 million yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.1%, 13.9%, 20.8%, and 19.2% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 428 million, 564 million, 696 million, and 869 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 31.0%, 31.7%, 23.3%, and 25.0% [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.89, 1.18, 1.45, and 1.81 yuan for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [3] - The target price for 康耐特光学 is set at 69.36 HKD, with the current price at 62.05 HKD [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Operation" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The AI investment will primarily manifest in R&D expenses, projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming segment is projected to generate revenue of CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][15][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising efficiency [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, primarily driven by payment services [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue is expected to be CNY 194.6 billion, with a 13% year-on-year increase. Non-IFRS operating profit is projected at CNY 68.1 billion, up 15% year-on-year, and net profit is expected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% increase [4][10][11] - The expected Non-IFRS net profit margin is 34% for Q4 2025 [10] Gaming Business - The gaming revenue forecast for Q4 2025 is CNY 58 billion, with an 18% year-on-year growth. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, while overseas game revenue is projected to increase by 22% [5][21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is anticipated to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, marking an 18% year-on-year growth. AI-driven enhancements are expected to improve advertising efficiency significantly [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Revenue from financial technology and enterprise services is expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025, with a 9% year-on-year growth, primarily driven by payment services [20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][8][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 194.6 billion in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13%. The network advertising sector is anticipated to perform steadily, benefiting from the release of advertising inventory and AI integration. The gaming business is expected to show strong performance, particularly with the game "Delta Action" [4][9] - The company is increasing its investment in AI, which is expected to offset some operational leverage release. The R&D expenses related to AI are projected to grow by 28% in Q4 2025 [4][10] - The gaming revenue is projected to reach CNY 58 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. Domestic game revenue is expected to grow by 16%, supported by established titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [5][21] - Marketing services revenue is expected to be CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, driven by AI enhancements in advertising [6][19] - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with revenue expected to reach CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025 [20] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, Tencent's Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be CNY 68.1 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year. The Non-IFRS net profit is projected to be CNY 65.2 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth, with a net profit margin of 34% [10][11] - The overall revenue for 2025 is forecasted to be CNY 752 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [11][30] Gaming Sector - The gaming business is expected to generate CNY 58 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. The domestic gaming revenue is projected to grow by 16% [5][21] - Upcoming game releases, including "Delta Action" and "Future of Counterattack," are anticipated to enhance revenue streams [21] Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue is expected to reach CNY 41.3 billion in Q4 2025, with an 18% year-on-year increase. AI-driven advertising solutions are expected to improve operational efficiency for advertisers [6][19] Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services are projected to grow by 9% year-on-year, with expected revenue of CNY 61.2 billion in Q4 2025. The growth is primarily driven by payment services and the introduction of AI applications in WeChat mini-programs [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to continue its investment in flash sales while maintaining rapid growth in AI cloud services [1] - Revenue for FY2026Q3 is projected to reach 292.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, primarily due to a slowdown in e-commerce revenue growth [7] - The report anticipates that Alibaba Cloud's revenue will grow by 35.0% year-on-year, reaching 42.85 billion yuan in the same quarter, driven by strong demand for AI computing power and services [7] - The company aims to become the absolute leader in the instant retail market through its flash sales initiative, with improvements in GMV and AOV expected [7] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are set at 101.53 billion, 141.56 billion, and 184.65 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 28.4, 20.4, and 15.6 times [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for FY2024A to FY2028E are as follows: 941.17 billion, 996.35 billion, 1,068.58 billion, 1,158.75 billion, and 1,269.02 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.34%, 5.86%, 7.25%, 8.44%, and 9.52% respectively [1] - The report forecasts a decline in attributable net profit for FY2026 to 82.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 36.49% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in FY2027 and FY2028 [1] - The latest diluted EPS for FY2026 is projected at 4.33 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 34.94 times [1]