Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Insights - The two main business segments are gradually becoming profitable, and significant share buybacks are being conducted to reward shareholders. The company is expected to see substantial incremental growth from its home decoration and rental businesses, which are turning profitable. Despite short-term pressures on the brokerage business due to market cycles, the company maintains a clear alpha compared to the industry. Continuous innovation and AI empowerment are expected to enhance quality and efficiency, leading to greater earnings elasticity as market conditions stabilize [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 23.1 billion yuan (up 2.1%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 750 million yuan (down 36.0%). Adjusted net profit was 1.29 billion yuan (down 27.8%). For the first three quarters of 2025, these figures were 72.4 billion yuan, 2.9 billion yuan, and 4.5 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year changes of +16.1%, -16.8%, and -23.3% [6][10]. Business Segments - The rental revenue has increased significantly, countering the decline in the brokerage segment. The company reported a 45.3% year-on-year increase in rental revenue, with over 660,000 managed properties as of Q3 2025. The brokerage business saw a decline in revenue from existing and new homes, with year-on-year changes of -3.6% and -14.1%, respectively [10]. Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year to 21.4%, with a gross profit decline of 3.9%. The profitability of the rental business improved significantly, contributing a profit margin of 8.7%. The company has successfully managed expenses, with selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue decreasing by 1.1 percentage points year-on-year to 18.4% [10]. Share Buybacks and Future Outlook - The company executed a share buyback amounting to 281 million USD in Q3 2025, the highest in nearly two years. Cumulatively, 675 million USD has been spent on buybacks in the first three quarters, representing nearly 3% of the total shares outstanding as of the end of 2024. The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 5.78 billion, 7.62 billion, and 8.33 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 24.3, 18.4, and 16.9 [10].

京东物流(02618) 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 14 日 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 物流 25Q3 一体化供应链收入同比+46%，持续开拓高价值市场 ——京东物流 2025 三季报点评 投资要点 其他客户收入实现 249 亿元，同比+5.1%，占比 45.3%，主要由于快递快运业务 量的增加。 2025Q3 来自京东集团的收入为 212 亿元，同比+65.8%，占比 38.5%；公司来自 京东集团的收入同比激增主要由于承接京东外卖等即时零售配送业务密切相关。 来自外部客户收入为 338.8 亿元，同比+7.2%，占比 61.5%。 ❑ 细分领域 仓储网络：截至 2025 年 9 月 30 日公司运营 1600 多个仓库和由云仓生态平台上 第三方业主经营的 2000 多个云仓，仓储网络总管理面积超过 3400 万平方米，公 司在全国 30 个城市运营 45 个亚洲一号智能产业园。 综合运输网络： 2025 年 Q3 公司成功开通深圳至新加坡的全货机航线，进一步完 善了在亚太地区的航空物流网络布局。该航线凭借高频稳定的时刻安排，为华南 地区出口企业提供了高效物流解决方案，可将高端电子产品、智能终端 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's revenue has reached a three-year high, although profitability is under pressure due to the expansion of new business segments [2] Financial Performance - The projected revenue for 2024 is 1,158,819 million RMB, with a growth rate of 6.84%. This is expected to increase to 1,228,348 million RMB in 2025, 1,289,765 million RMB in 2026, and 1,341,355 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a gradual decline in growth rates to 4.00% by 2027 [4][6] - Operating profit is forecasted to rise from 39,570 million RMB in 2024 to 44,510 million RMB in 2027, with a significant increase of 36.79% in 2024 [4][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 41,359 million RMB in 2024 to 46,519 million RMB in 2027, with a notable increase of 63.87% in 2024 [4][6] Business Development - The company is focusing on optimizing its revenue structure, enhancing its core retail business, and expanding into new areas such as JD Delivery and logistics [8][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of the retail business as the core pillar, while also highlighting the potential of new business segments [9] Financial Ratios - The operating profit margin is projected to slightly decline from 3.41% in 2024 to 3.32% in 2027, indicating a gradual decrease in profitability [6] - The net profit margin is also expected to decrease from 3.57% in 2024 to 3.47% in 2027 [6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to fluctuate, starting at 9.59 in 2024 and dropping to 7.36 by 2027, suggesting a potential undervaluation over time [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an adjusted target price of 32 USD / 247 HKD [3][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.7 billion RMB for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, aligning with market expectations. The adjusted net profit was 790 million RMB, exceeding the market forecast of 640 million RMB, with an adjusted profit margin of 10.2% [1][3]. - User traffic has accelerated, with Daily Active Users (DAU) growing by 9.3% year-on-year to 117 million and Monthly Active Users (MAU) increasing by 8.0% to 376 million. The average daily user engagement reached a record high of 112 minutes [1]. - Advertising revenue saw a robust growth of 23% year-on-year, driven by improved ad supply and effectiveness. The company anticipates maintaining over 20% growth in advertising revenue for Q4 2025 [1][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY23, the company is projected to generate revenue of 22.5 billion RMB, increasing to 35.8 billion RMB by FY27. The adjusted net profit is expected to turn positive in FY25, reaching 2.5 billion RMB [4][11]. - The operating profit is forecasted to improve from a loss of 5.1 billion RMB in FY23 to a profit of 1.1 billion RMB in FY25 [4][11]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in gross margin, which is expected to rise from 24.2% in FY23 to 38.5% by FY27 [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 146 / USD 38, indicating a potential upside of 17% for the Hong Kong stock and 24% for the US stock [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 revenue reached RMB 299.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, surpassing market expectations by 1.6%. However, the growth rate of product revenue significantly slowed to 10.5%, primarily due to a high base effect from last year's government subsidies [1][2]. - Service revenue showed strong performance, growing by 30.8%, driven by substantial increases in advertising and logistics revenue, which grew by 23.7% and 35.0%, respectively [1][2]. - The report anticipates that the impact of the high base will be more pronounced in Q4, potentially leading to further deceleration in growth rates [1]. Financial Summary - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 decreased by 56% to RMB 5.8 billion, with an adjusted net profit margin of 1.9%, down from 5.1% in the same period last year. This decline was attributed to a 111% increase in marketing expenses related to food delivery subsidies [2][4]. - The overall gross margin for the company was reported at 16.9%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The report projects FY25E revenue at RMB 1,337.7 billion, with an adjusted net profit forecast of RMB 29.8 billion [4][8]. Market Performance - The current stock price is HKD 124.4, with a 52-week range of HKD 114.8 to HKD 180.8, and a total market capitalization of HKD 341.2 billion [5]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 1.87 billion [5]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forward P/E ratio of 13.2x for FY25E and 8.0x for FY26E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company has raised its full-year GAAP net profit guidance to a range of 350-450 million yuan, following a record high net profit of 260 million yuan in Q3 2025, with total net profit for the first three quarters reaching 280 million yuan, achieving its annual profit target one quarter ahead of schedule [1][3]. - The company has secured contracts for the 2026 model year with its top two ADAS clients, ensuring 100% laser radar standardization, which provides high certainty for growth in shipment volumes [2][3]. - The company has made significant progress in the Robotaxi and Robotruck markets, establishing partnerships with several leading autonomous vehicle companies, which include substantial orders valued at tens of millions of dollars [3]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company expects net profits of 416 million yuan, 697 million yuan in 2026, and 1.189 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.66 yuan, 4.47 yuan, and 7.62 yuan [3][5]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 3.128 billion yuan, increasing to 4.752 billion yuan in 2026 and 6.399 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 50.58% and 51.94% respectively [5][12]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 42%, with operating expenses decreasing by 23% year-on-year, showcasing effective cost control through AI technology [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 800 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 22% from the current price of 656 HKD [2][4][19]. Core Insights - Tencent's 3Q25 revenue reached 192.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15%, exceeding market expectations by 2%. The adjusted net profit was 70.6 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, also slightly above market forecasts [1][2]. - The growth in international gaming revenue was robust, increasing by 43% year-on-year to 20.8 billion RMB, driven by Supercell games and new studio acquisitions. Domestic gaming revenue also grew by 15% to 42.8 billion RMB, supported by the successful launch of new games [1][2]. - The advertising revenue for 3Q25 was 35.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 20% year-on-year growth, with stable growth in capital expenditures at 12.9 billion RMB [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25E, the projected revenue is 754.4 billion RMB, with an adjusted net profit forecast of 271.4 billion RMB, representing a growth rate of 27.6% [4][10]. - The gross margin for 3Q25 was reported at 56.4%, a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points, while the adjusted net profit margin reached a new high of 36.6% [1][2]. - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and profitability, with a projected operating profit of 248.3 billion RMB for FY25E [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 72.80 HKD, maintaining the current rating [3][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first quarterly profit in Q3 2025, driven by platform revenue growth, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 44.02 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 36.8%. The Q3 revenue was 17.76 billion RMB, up 31.4% year-on-year [1]. - The "XianZhi" platform continued to show strong growth, generating 15.43 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, accounting for 86.9% of total revenue [1]. - The number of benchmark customers increased to 103, with a significant rise in average revenue per user (ARPU) to 25.49 million RMB, up 71.4% year-on-year [1]. - Research and development efficiency improved, with R&D expenses of 14.89 billion RMB for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, and an R&D expense ratio of 33.8%, down 8.9 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024A at 5,261 million RMB, 2025E at 7,181 million RMB, 2026E at 9,579 million RMB, and 2027E at 12,539 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 25.13%, 36.50%, 33.41%, and 30.89% respectively [8]. - The company is expected to turn profitable with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB in 2025E, increasing to 802 million RMB by 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of 121.76% and 154.35% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.52 RMB in 2024A to 1.54 RMB in 2027E [8].

用户生态持续优化，利润端超预期 哔哩哔哩-W(9626) ——哔哩哔哩 FY25Q3 业绩点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 秦和平(分析师) | 0755-23976666 | qinheping@gtht.com | S0880523110003 | | 高翩然(分析师) | 0755-80305701 | gaopianran@gtht.com | S0880525040066 | 本报告导读： 用户数量稳健增长，参与度持续提升，毛利率连续 13 个季度环比提升。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万人民币) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 22528 | 26832 | 30,068 | 32,904 | 35,816 | | (+/-)% | 2.9% | 19.1% | 12.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | | 经调整归母净利润 | -3425 | -22 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is implementing a restricted stock incentive plan to enhance its long-term incentive mechanism, aiming to align the interests of shareholders, the company, and management for sustainable growth [8] - The company has shown strong sales performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival, entering the sales Top 20 list for the first time, with significant growth in popular products [8] - The company is expanding its product range and increasing its SKU speed, which opens up growth opportunities in various market segments [8] - The company has seen a steady increase in repurchase rates, with a total of approximately 13.4 million online and 5.6 million offline registered members, leading to a comprehensive repurchase rate of 26.8%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.21 billion, 1.58 billion, and 2.03 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 30%, and 28% respectively [8] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 2,885.96 million RMB in 2023 to 5,153.06 million RMB in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.65% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 661.9 million RMB in 2023 to 1,212.7 million RMB in 2025, with a CAGR of 37.7% [7] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to remain strong, with values of 42.8% in 2023 and around 25% in the following years [7]