证券研究报告 | 2025年04月18日 猫眼娱乐（01896.HK） 优于大市 电影大盘疲软及重点影片不佳致 24 年承压，积极进行股东回报 在线娱乐票务龙头，市场地位领先。猫眼娱乐是中国领先的"科技+全文娱" 服务提供商，业务覆盖三大主要板块：在线娱乐票务服务、娱乐内容服务、 广告服务及其他。公司股东资源优势显著，管理团队行业经验丰富，目前在 电影票务和电影发行领域市占率领先，其中电影票务市占率达到 60%。因此 公司业绩表现受电影大盘影响较大，近几年电影市场受疫情和供给周期的影 响波动剧烈，公司业绩也呈现出较为明显的弹性。 大盘不佳致 24 年收入下滑，演出业务市占率持续提升。猫眼娱乐 2024 年实 现收入 40.82 亿元，同比-14%，主要由于电影市场优质供给不足，大盘票房 跌落至 425 亿元，同比-22.6%。分业务看，娱乐内容服务方面，收入 19.60 亿元，同比-14.8%，主要由于部分参与影片票房表现不及预期，但市场地位 依旧稳健，公司全年参与国产影片票房达到 232 亿元，参与宣发影片达到 60 部，其中主控发行 36 部，数量和票房占比均创历史新高。在线票务服务方 面，收入 19.2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a BUY rating for Xtep with a target price of HK$ 7.20, indicating a potential upside of 46.9% from the current price of HK$ 4.90 [3][10][18]. Core Views - The 1Q25 results are generally in line with expectations, with an encouraging trend observed in March 2025. The outlook for 2Q25E remains cautiously optimistic due to potential policy support and brand-specific growth momentum [1][10]. - Xtep is expected to benefit from a consumption trade-down effect amidst macroeconomic risks, with management maintaining positive sales growth guidance for FY25E [10][11]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and preparing for a direct-to-consumer (DTC) transformation, with plans to repurchase stores in the coming years [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at RMB 14,312 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%. The net profit is expected to reach RMB 1,372 million, reflecting a growth of 3.6% [2][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY25E is projected at RMB 0.48, with a net profit margin of 9.6% [2][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at 10x, compared to the target P/E of 14x for FY25E, indicating that the stock is undervalued relative to its historical average [10][18]. Market Performance - Xtep's market capitalization is approximately HK$ 12,910.7 million, with an average turnover of HK$ 82.9 million over the past three months [4][10]. - The stock has experienced a decline of 13.9% over the past month and 14.0% over the past three months, indicating a challenging market environment [6][10]. Shareholding Structure - The major shareholder is Mr. Ding Shui Po and family, holding 49.2% of the shares, followed by JPMorgan Chase & Co with 4.6% [5][10].

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 04 18 年 月 日 美团-W（03690.HK） 主业稳健增长，海外加速扩张 事件：3 月 21 日，公司发布 2024 年全年业绩，2024 年实现营业收入 3376 亿元 /同比+21.94%，归母净利润 358.1 亿元/同比+158.4%；2024Q4 实现营业收入 864.6 亿元/同比+24.28%，实现归母净利润 62.2 亿元/同比+180.8%。 核心本地商业：即时配送订单稳健增长，到店酒旅订单量同比高增，加速低线市 场渗透。2024Q4 核心本地业务收入为 655.7 亿元/同比+18.9%，保持快速增长， 经营利润 129.0 亿元/同比+60.9%，经营利润率达 19.7%/同比+5.1pct，利润端 显著优化 。 收 入 端 来 看 ， 配 送 服 务 / 佣 金 / 在 线 营 销 服 务 分 别 同 比 增 长 19.5%/23.9%/17.7%，具体： 1）到家：2024Q4 即时配送业务稳健增长。①餐饮外卖方面，公司通过"拼好饭" "神枪手""品牌卫星店"等项目丰富顾客需求，并不断推出商家扶持政策；②美 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase in revenue in the single digits. The retail discount level is between 70-75%, and inventory turnover days are around 4 months, indicating stable operational quality [1][2]. - The e-commerce business is performing exceptionally well, with expected sales growth of over 20% due to the Spring Festival. The company is optimizing its store structure and plans to initiate a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) transformation in the second half of 2025 to enhance retail efficiency [1][2]. - The company's subsidiary, Saucony, has become a new growth driver, with revenue growth exceeding 40% in Q1 2025. The brand has already surpassed 1 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 and is undergoing a brand revitalization process [2]. - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 7% and a net profit growth of around 10% [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials for 2025 include: - Revenue: 14,519 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.9% - Net profit: 1,365 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.3% - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.49 yuan [4][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 9 times in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure due to external environmental factors, with a cautious expansion strategy focusing on new stores and menu adjustments [2][3] - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 56 million yuan, a significant decrease of 87.7% [1][3] - The company plans to optimize its brand portfolio and enhance supply chain capabilities, with new store openings and menu innovations expected to drive future growth [3][8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a core operating profit of 252 million yuan, down 60.1% year-on-year [1] - For the second half of 2024, the company recorded a net profit of -16 million yuan, compared to 231 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The revenue breakdown by brand for 2024 shows that Taier, Jiumaojiu, Song Hotpot, and other brands generated revenues of 4.413 billion, 546 million, 895 million, and 220 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, -13.2%, +11.0%, and +201.4% [1] Store Expansion and Operations - The company opened 150 new stores in 2024, including 95 Taier stores and 28 Song Hotpot stores, while closing 69 stores [2] - As of the end of 2024, the total number of Taier stores reached 634, with a year-on-year increase of 56 stores [2] - The same-store sales for Taier decreased by 18.8% in 2024, while Song Hotpot saw a decline of 31.6% [2] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 6.761 billion, 7.878 billion, and 9.292 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 99 million, 263 million, and 411 million yuan [9] - The company is expected to maintain a cautious approach to expansion while optimizing existing stores and menu offerings [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [4] Core Views - The company is facing performance pressure due to external environmental factors, with a cautious expansion strategy focusing on new stores and menu adjustments [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 6.074 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, but a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders, down 87.7% to 56 million yuan [1][3] - The company is optimizing its brand portfolio and enhancing supply chain capabilities, with new store formats and menu updates expected to drive future growth [8] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 60.74 billion yuan, with a core operating profit of 2.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 60.1% [1] - In the second half of 2024, the company reported a net profit of -16 million yuan, compared to 231 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - The company plans to achieve revenues of 67.61 billion yuan, 78.78 billion yuan, and 92.92 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 99 million yuan, 263 million yuan, and 411 million yuan [8][9] Store Expansion and Operations - The company opened 150 new stores in 2024, including 95 for the Taier brand and 28 for the Song Hotpot brand, while closing 69 stores [2] - As of the end of 2024, the total number of Taier stores reached 634, with a same-store sales decline of 18.8% [2] - The company is enhancing its supply chain capabilities with a new center expected to be operational by 2025, which will support core brand ingredient processing and sales [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in Q1 2025, with a single-digit percentage increase in revenue for the main brand, and a healthy inventory turnover of approximately 4 months [1][2]. - The e-commerce segment is expected to perform exceptionally well, with anticipated growth rates exceeding 20% due to the influence of the Spring Festival [1][2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its offline store structure while enhancing the efficiency of its retail operations, with plans to initiate a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) transformation in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. - The subsidiary brand, Saucony, has become a new growth driver, with a revenue increase of over 40% in Q1 2025 and a projected revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The company expects a revenue growth of around 7% and a net profit growth of approximately 10% for the year 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials for 2025 include a revenue of 14.519 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.365 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% and 10.3% respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.49 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9 times [3][4]. - The company’s net asset return (ROE) is projected to be 13.6% in 2025, with a gradual decline to 12.4% by 2027 [4].

传媒/游戏Ⅱ 心动公司（02400.HK） 2025 年 04 月 17 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/17 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 31.600 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 40.400/13.760 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 155.26 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 155.26 | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.91 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 4.91 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 59.31 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 心动公司 恒生指数 相关研究报告 《"游戏+平台"飞轮效应逐步显现， 驱动长期成长—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2025.3.30 《2024 年业绩超预期，新游戏及 TapTap 继续驱动成长—港股公司信息 更新报告》-2025.3.5 《《心动小镇》春节活动或带动游戏流 水大幅提升—港股公司信息更新报 告》-2025.1.20 方光照（分析师） 田鹏（分析师） fangguangz ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [6][5]. Core Views - The controlling shareholder, Mr. Ma, has increased his stake in the company by 450,000 shares, bringing his total holdings to 637 million shares, which represents 42.39% of the company [1]. - The changes in tariffs are seen as a potential opportunity for the company to enhance its market share, with a short-term impact on the supply chain [2][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a high capacity utilization rate and continue its positive development momentum, with plans to optimize its overseas production bases and improve supply chain efficiency [4]. Summary by Sections - **Shareholder Activity**: Mr. Ma Jianrong has increased his holdings by 450,000 shares, totaling 637 million shares, or 42.39% of the company [1]. - **Tariff Impact**: The report suggests that while the supply chain may bear some tariff costs in the short term, the long-term outlook for leading supply chains is positive, with potential for increased market share and profitability [2][3]. - **Operational Strategy**: The company plans to enhance its production capabilities and market responsiveness by optimizing its overseas bases, investing in new materials, and diversifying its product offerings to meet consumer demand [4]. - **Financial Forecast**: The report maintains its earnings forecast, projecting revenues of 32.4 billion RMB, 36.6 billion RMB, and 41.3 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 6.6 billion RMB, 7.4 billion RMB, and 8.4 billion RMB respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 5.67, compared to the current price of HKD 4.14 [7]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong sales performance in the first quarter, with the main brand's offline retail sales growing by 10%-15% year-on-year, and children's brand sales also increasing by 10%-15%. E-commerce sales recorded a robust growth of 35%-40% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expanding its superstore format, aiming to enhance the shopping experience by offering a wide range of products. In the first quarter, 10 superstores were opened, with plans to reach 50-100 by year-end [2]. - Product innovation is a focus, with several core products being upgraded and new models launched, including running shoes and basketball shoes featuring advanced technology [3]. - The impact of increased tariffs on overseas sales is limited, as overseas sales account for only 1.8% of total revenue, primarily managed by distributors [4]. - Revenue and profit forecasts for FY25 are maintained at RMB 11.87 billion and RMB 1.33 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.8% and 16.0% [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The first quarter saw a continuation of high growth in sales, with offline retail and e-commerce both performing strongly [1][2]. Store Expansion - The company is actively expanding its superstore format, with a goal of enhancing customer experience and increasing product variety [2]. Product Development - The company is focusing on technological innovation in its product offerings, with several new and upgraded products launched in the first quarter [3]. Tariff Impact - The company is well-positioned to mitigate the effects of increased tariffs due to its limited exposure to overseas sales [4]. Financial Projections - The financial outlook remains positive, with steady growth expected in revenue and net profit for the upcoming fiscal year [5].