证券研究报告·海外公司深度·软件服务(HS) 文远知行-W（00800.HK） 立足国内发力海外，RoboX 商业化落地龙头 2026 年 01 月 12 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 401.84 | 361.13 | 554.64 | 945.15 | 1,987.24 | | 同比(%) | (23.83) | (10.13) | 53.58 | 70.41 | 110.26 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | (1,949) | (2,517) | (1,444) | (1,314) | (1,055) | | 同比(%) | - | - | - | - | - | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | (1.90) | (2.45) | (1.41) | (1.28) | (1.03) | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | - | - | - | - | - | [Table_Tag] ...

事件简评 截至 2026 年 1 月 11 日（北京时间），心动公司自研自发的生活模 拟游戏《心动小镇》（《Heartopia》）国际版在全球超过 100 个国 家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜前 200 名。 经营分析 《心动小镇》国际版初期下载量数据亮眼。截至 1 月 11 日，《心 动小镇》仍在日本、韩国、法国、泰国等 10 个国家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜第 1，在德国、美国、加拿大等 30 个国家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜前 20 名，总计在 108 个国家/地区排名 Apple Store 免费榜前 200 名。根据 AppGrowing，《心动小镇》国际版在 Google Play 累计下载量超 160 万次，在 Apple Store 下载量约 100 万次，叠加尚无统计的 PC 端下载，我们预计《心动小镇》国 际版下载量已超 300 万次。作为一款大 DAU 且注重社交互动的网 络游戏，《心动小镇》的用户基数对全生命周期的商业化表现至关 重要，公测初期亮眼的下载数据保证了产品长线运营的坚实基础。 游戏内容在社交媒体平台传播有望进一步扩大用户基数。观 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [10] Core Insights - The company is a leader in the fluorosilicone industry, with the third-generation refrigerant quota officially freezing in 2024, indicating a long-term upward trend for the industry [3][10] - Significant slowdown in capital expenditure for organic silicon, with demand maintaining high growth, suggesting a potential reversal from the industry's bottom [3][10] - The fluorinated polymer segment is expected to encounter structural opportunities [3][10] Company Overview - The company is a leading enterprise in China's fluorosilicone industry, focusing on creating a world-class fluorosilicone material industry chain [6][16] - It operates through subsidiaries, including Dongyue Green Cold Technology for refrigerants, Dongyue Silicon Materials for organic silicon, and Dongyue High Polymer Materials for fluorinated polymers [6][16] Refrigerants - The refrigerant market is experiencing a sustained upward trend, with a new business model forming due to the freezing of third-generation refrigerant quotas in 2024 [7][40] - The industry is transitioning from a state of oversupply to a balanced supply-demand situation, with a high concentration rate of 65% among the top three companies [7][47] - Prices for R32, R134a, R125, and R143a have increased significantly, with respective price increases of 265%, 107%, 71%, and 44% compared to early 2024 [7] Organic Silicon - The organic silicon industry is at the bottom of its cycle, with expectations for a gradual recovery supported by stable demand across traditional and emerging sectors [8] - The domestic organic silicon industry is transitioning from a phase of capacity expansion to a period of limited new capacity, alleviating supply-side pressures [8] Fluorinated Polymers - The fluorinated polymer sector is at a low point, but emerging demand is expected to drive growth, particularly in high-end applications [9] - The company is well-positioned in the production of PTFE, with advantages in high-end markets, while PVDF is benefiting from unexpected demand in lithium battery applications [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [9] Core Insights - In the AI era, the short video giant Kuaishou is actively embracing new technologies, launching AI-native video products that lead industry development. The company is undergoing a value reassessment as it fully utilizes AI to reshape its core business commercialization chain [3][5] - The AI-native product, Keling AI, is positioned to lead the industry with its technical and product capabilities, while the OneRec recommendation model enhances user engagement and reduces operational costs, validating its revenue growth logic [5][6] - The market is expected to recognize Kuaishou's unique value proposition, leading to a potential revaluation of its stock as the AI commercialization process accelerates [19] Summary by Sections Introduction - Kuaishou, listed as the "first short video stock" in 2021, has gained market attention due to its unique monetization model in advertising, e-commerce, and live streaming. The company is transitioning from high-speed growth to stable growth in its e-commerce business, leading to a market valuation of around 10x PE [5][19] Keling AI - Keling AI is leading the AI video sector with its superior model performance and product capabilities. The market for AI-generated videos is projected to exceed $100 billion, with Keling achieving stable monthly revenues of over 100 million yuan and a quarterly revenue growth rate of over 20% [7][30] Main Business - Kuaishou's short video business is being comprehensively reshaped by AI, with a rebound in performance expected in Q1 2025. The company is enhancing its algorithm capabilities and commercial efficiency through the OneRec system, which is expected to improve advertising revenue significantly [8][62] Commercialization - Keling AI's user base consists mainly of professional and business users, with 70% of its revenue coming from overseas. The product is designed to cater to professional film and short video production needs, demonstrating strong growth in user numbers and video generation [53][59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the rapid growth of the building block toy market, particularly in the character-based segment, which has a projected CAGR of 29.0% from 2023 to 2028 in China [4] - The company has successfully commercialized 19 IPs with 925 SKUs, and several new products are expected to launch in 2026, which could drive revenue growth [4] - The overseas market, particularly North America, has shown significant growth, with a 898.6% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue in the first half of 2025, contributing to 38.6% of total revenue [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 29.40 billion, 37.85 billion, and 47.34 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.47, 3.15, and 4.24 yuan [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The building block toy segment is expanding rapidly, with a focus on character-based toys, which are becoming a new market highlight [4] Product Development - The company plans to launch multiple new products in 2026, including both Eastern and Western IPs, which are expected to attract consumer attention and boost sales during the Chinese New Year [4] International Expansion - The company has made significant strides in the overseas market, with a focus on localized products and a robust multi-channel sales strategy [5] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with a projected increase in net profit from a loss of 401 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 1.057 billion yuan by 2027 [6][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [11] Core Insights - The "second-generation IO+ADC" is expected to become the next trend in cancer treatment, attracting multiple multinational corporations (MNCs) such as Merck, BMS, BioNTech, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer. In this new global competition, the company has distinguished itself with strong innovation capabilities and a rapidly advancing pipeline, having formed a deep partnership with BioNTech, which has also established a strategic collaboration with BMS. This collaboration is expected to maximize the global value of the company's ADC pipeline [3][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2019, focuses on the development of ADC drugs and has built four leading technology platforms: DITAC (Duality Immune Toxin Antibody Conjugate), DIBAC (Duality Innovative Bispecific Antibody Conjugate), DIMAC (Duality Immune Modulating Antibody Conjugate), and DUPAC (Duality Unique Payload Antibody Conjugate). It has developed a competitive ADC pipeline targeting various promising cancer antigens [6][26]. ADC Pipeline and Collaborations - The company has multiple ADC pipelines that have gained recognition and partnerships with well-known pharmaceutical companies. Notably, DB-1303 (HER2 ADC), DB-1311 (B7-H3 ADC), and DB-1305 (TROP2 ADC) have been licensed to BioNTech, while DB-1324 (CDH17 ADC) has been licensed to GlaxoSmithKline, and DB-1312 (B7-H4 ADC) has been licensed to BeiGene [6][29]. Specific Drug Insights - DB-1311 (B7-H3 ADC) shows significant potential across various cancers, with promising efficacy and safety profiles, particularly in prostate cancer, where it is positioned as a global best-in-class candidate. The drug is currently in advanced clinical stages [7][35]. - DB-1303 (HER2 ADC) is advancing in the U.S. and aims to differentiate itself in the uterine cancer market, with potential sales exceeding $5 billion by 2025. It is the only HER2 ADC in advanced clinical stages besides DS-8201 [8][9]. - The company has established a strong foothold in the ADC market, with a focus on global clinical trials and strategic collaborations, positioning itself as a potential international biopharma leader [6][29].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][8] Core Insights - The report highlights the company's high visibility in performance and simultaneous growth in volume and price, making it a rare investment opportunity in the consumer goods sector. The valuation is considered attractive, and there is potential for earnings to exceed expectations in 2026 due to continuous innovation in core models [1][4]. Industry Overview - The private jet industry is experiencing steady growth, with high-end models (jets) growing at a faster rate. Post-pandemic, high-net-worth individuals prefer private travel for privacy, and tariff fluctuations have led to a decline in competitors' market share. The supply side continues to introduce competitive new models, driving order growth [2]. Company Analysis - The company is a leading player in the piston private aircraft sector, rapidly increasing its market share through strong product quality and customer service. The safety and customization of products create significant competitive barriers. The launch of the SR series G7+ in 2025 has led to a rapid increase in orders, and a new model is expected in 2026, which could further boost orders and establish a foundation for high earnings growth [3][4]. Key Expectations - The company has a rich pipeline of new products, with expectations for significant order growth following the 2026 product launch. The current long delivery cycle suggests that order growth could exceed expectations, contributing to higher delivery volumes in 2026-2027. The service business is also showing strong growth, with a revenue increase of 24% in the first half of 2025, indicating a potential for higher profitability and earnings contributions [4][6]. Potential Catalysts - Key catalysts for the company include the anticipated market recovery in March 2026 based on transaction volume and market capitalization, the launch of new products in 2026, and quarterly delivery data released by GAMA [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company is a rare player in the "AI for Science" sector, founded by three MIT physicists in 2015, focusing on drug and material science R&D solutions using quantum physics principles, AI, and robotics. In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 517 million, a year-on-year increase of 404%, with a net profit of RMB 83 million [6][10]. - The company signed the largest AI pharmaceutical order in the industry with DoveTree, valued at HKD 47 billion (USD 5.99 billion), which reflects its technological strength and potential for future business development [7]. - The company has made significant progress in drug discovery, with its AI platforms being applied across various fields and partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies like Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: HKD 11.35 - Total shares: 4.303 billion - Total market capitalization: HKD 48.8 billion - 52-week high/low: HKD 3.85 / HKD 15.12 - Debt-to-asset ratio: 8.9% - Price-to-earnings ratio: -226.34 [4]. Financial Performance - Revenue forecast for 2025-2027: RMB 787 million, RMB 998 million, RMB 1.465 billion, with growth rates of 195.3%, 26.8%, and 46.7% respectively. The net profit is projected to improve from -RMB 156 million in 2025 to RMB 196 million in 2027 [13][16]. Product Development - The company has developed two innovative topical ingredients for hair growth, Remeanagen™ and AquaKine™, which have received FDA approval and are expected to generate significant revenue in the consumer market [10][11]. - The global market for hair loss treatments is projected to grow from USD 5.04 billion in 2025 to USD 6.15 billion by 2033, indicating strong demand and growth potential [11]. Strategic Partnerships - The company has established a strategic partnership with JinkoSolar to develop a new generation of solar cells using AI and automation, enhancing its capabilities in the chemical raw materials sector [12][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to experience new growth drivers from its clean energy, LNG, and aerospace equipment sectors, with a record high backlog of orders [5][10] - The company operates under the CIMC Group, focusing on clean energy, chemical environment, and liquid food sectors, providing key equipment, engineering services, and system solutions [6] - The company anticipates revenue of 171.8 billion, 31.2 billion, and 44.5 billion from its three main business segments in 2024, with respective operating profits of 9.6 billion, 3.5 billion, and 3.5 billion [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The clean energy sector has seen a significant increase in new orders, with a total of 169.9 billion in new orders for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.14% [7] - The backlog of orders in the clean energy sector is approximately 200 billion, with production scheduled until 2028 [7] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising domestic natural gas consumption and the global shipping industry's transition to low-carbon alternatives [7] Clean Energy Projects - Key projects include the coke oven gas hydrogen co-production LNG project and biomass-based green methanol projects, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue [8] - The company has ongoing projects with capacities of 100,000 tons of LNG and 15,000 tons of hydrogen, with expected production dates in 2024 and 2025 [8] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of 12.2 billion, 14.6 billion, and 17.4 billion for 2025-2027, with respective growth rates of 11.5%, 19.6%, and 19.2% [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3, 12.8, and 10.8 for the years 2025-2027 [10]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leading OTA in the lower-tier market, benefiting from the release of pent-up demand and the enhancement of user value, which drives growth [3][11]. - The online travel market is characterized by strong certainty, with a stable competitive landscape allowing major players to release profits comfortably [2][11]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a projected increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, driven by the release of demand in the lower-tier market and refined operations [3][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - The company, Tongcheng Travel, was formed by the merger of Tongcheng Network and Elong in 2018, leveraging strengths in transportation ticketing and hotel bookings [1][14]. - It has over 250 million annual paying users, primarily in the lower-tier market, and has seen a significant recovery in performance post-pandemic [1][15]. Market Analysis - The domestic tourism market has rebounded, with tourist numbers and revenue recovering to 109% and 111% of 2019 levels, respectively, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [2][38]. - The OTA market is dominated by a few key players, with Ctrip holding over 50% market share and Tongcheng around 15%, suggesting a stable competitive environment [2][11]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 145.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with net profit rising by 41% to 22.9 billion RMB [1][24]. - The adjusted profit margin improved from 16.2% in Q1-Q3 2024 to 18.0% in the same period of 2025, reflecting operational efficiency [1][24]. Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on the lower-tier market, where there is significant potential for growth and increased online penetration in travel services [3][11]. - It is expanding its app and multi-channel traffic strategies, leading to a rise in average revenue per user and overall user engagement [3][11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 193.0 billion RMB, 220.6 billion RMB, and 251.2 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 28.5 billion RMB, 33.4 billion RMB, and 39.0 billion RMB [3][5].