证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2026 年 01 月 20 日 康哲药业（00867.HK） 创新化+国际化助力商业化龙头迈入新阶段 消费品/生物医药 康哲是一家以商业化能力为特色的聚焦药品全生命周期的平台型药企，2018 年 起开启"新康哲"转型，并逐步消化核心产品集采影响，创新化和国际化成为 带动公司增长的核心动力；2024 年进入创新产品商业化元年，多个重磅创新药 陆续上市，并通过产业国际化公司康联达布局东南亚等新兴市场业务。 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 8013 | 7469 | 8248 | 10061 | 11467 | | 同比增长 | -12% | -7% | 10% | 22% | 14% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 2746 | 1651 | 1774 | 2091 | 2439 | | 同比增长 | -23% | -40% | 7% | 18% | 17% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 2401 | 1620 ...

雅迪控股（1585.HK） 2026-1-20 星期二 | 目标价： | | 16.43 | 港元 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现 | 价： | 11.95 | 港元 | | 预计升幅： | | | 37.5% | 重要数据 | 日期 | 2026-1-19 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | 11.95 | | 总股本（亿股） | 31.13 | | 总市值（亿港元） | 371 | | 净资产（亿港元） | 91.8 | | 总资产（亿港元） | 303.35 | | 52 周高低（港元） | 16.7/11.01 | | 每股净资产（港元） | 3.24 | 数据来源: Wind 、国元证券经纪(香港)整理 主要股东 | 大为投资 | 46.4% | | --- | --- | | 方圆投资 | 16.56% | 相关报告 更新报告：行业新政策落地，公司业务 有望回归增长-YS-20250120 更新报告：产品与营销服双轮驱动，业 绩增长动力充沛-YS-20240131 深度报告：解决短途出行时代痛点，综 合优势拓展成长空间-20230417 | 研究 ...

四问四答核心分歧，冉冉升起的中国奢侈品牌典范 [Table_CoverStock] —老铺黄金(6181.HK)公司深度报告 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 01 月 20 日 [Table_CoverAuthor] 姜文镪 骆峥 S1500524120004 S1500525020001 jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com luozheng1@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 港股深度报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 老铺黄金 (6181.HK) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 [Table_Chart] 资料来源：iFind，信达证券研发中心 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 老铺黄金 恒生指数 [Table_BaseData] 公司主要数据 | 收盘价（港元） | 695.00 | | --- | --- | | 52 周内股价波动区间 | 285.20-1108.00 | | (港元) | | | 最近一月涨跌幅(％) | +3.81 | | 总股本(亿股) | 1.76 | | 流 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 93.2, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 68.35 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company plans to focus on product specialization and optimize its operational system in 2026, enhancing development certainty and significantly expanding its building block vehicle category [1]. - The company aims to increase the number of SKUs in 2025 to expand its IP characters and product forms, although some products may underperform due to trial and error [1]. - The company will concentrate resources on successful product lines and categories in 2026, while controlling personnel scale and enhancing R&D process management [1]. - The existing core IPs will innovate styles and diversify price ranges, with several IPs expected to benefit from the release of related movies in 2026 [2]. - The company has accelerated the acquisition of overseas licensed IPs, with Southeast Asia and North America expected to provide strong support for revenue growth [3]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly from HKD 876.69 million in 2023 to HKD 4,899 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 169.27% from 2023 to 2024 and 27.05% from 2026 to 2027 [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching HKD 599.90 million, and further increasing to HKD 1,101.44 million by 2027 [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -2.69 in 2024 to 4.42 in 2027, indicating a strong recovery and growth trajectory [8]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 25.35 in 2025 to 13.81 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, Yihai International (1579.HK) [4][15] Core Insights - Yihai International has transitioned from a high-growth valuation to a low-valuation, high-dividend company, with a focus on cash dividends and a stable return [22][24] - The compound seasoning industry in China is expected to continue growing, with a market size of approximately 126.5 billion yuan, indicating potential for further penetration and expansion [22][30] - The company is poised for growth through its B-end and overseas markets, with significant improvements expected in its affiliate income as it stabilizes alongside Haidilao [2][15] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Since its listing in 2016, Yihai International has experienced a cycle of expansion, valuation bubble, adjustment, and stabilization [22] - The company has shifted its market perception from a high-growth entity to one focused on dividends, with a high payout ratio of 89.97% in 2023 and 95.06% in 2024 [24] Industry Space - The compound seasoning market is entering a phase of steady growth after rapid expansion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% expected from 2020 to 2024 [30] - The market for compound seasonings is driven by trends such as increased restaurant chain rates and urbanization, which support the growth of this segment [30] Growth Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth from 6.57 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.38 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits expected to rise from 800 million yuan to 980 million yuan during the same period [15][8] - The B-end market is a key growth area, with the company planning to establish a small B team to enhance its product offerings and directly engage with restaurant clients [2][66] - Overseas markets are also expected to grow rapidly, with projected revenue of 270 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.4% [70] Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate modest growth, with revenues expected to increase by 0.5%, 5.9%, and 6.0% respectively, while net profits are projected to grow by 8.8%, 10.3%, and 10.2% [15][8]

纺织服装 2026 年 01 月 20 日 老铺黄金(6181.HK) 中国古法手工金器第一品牌 推荐（首次） 股价：683 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.lphj.com | | 大股东/持股 | 北京红桥金季咨询顾问有限公司 | | | /32.49% | | 实际控制人 | 徐高明、徐东波 | | 总股本(百万股) | 176.39 | | 流通 AH 股(百万股) | 176.39 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1086.83 | | 流通 H 股市值(亿元) | 1086.83 | | 每股净资产(元) | 44.37 | | 资产负债率(%) | 43.10 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 王源 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524010001 WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 老铺黄金深耕古法黄金行业十余年，凭借先发优势，已打造出显著的品牌优势 地位和品牌影响力。自 2009 年创立以来，公司始终恪守品牌高端定位，系统 性地构筑了"品牌、产品、渠道、客服"差异化竞争优势。 | | 2023A | 2024A ...

证券研究报告 中国太平 (966 HK) 港股通 业绩预增：2025 年归母净利润同比增 长 215%-225% 有效税率下降亦推高净利润 根据公司公告，归母净利润的提升也受中国国家税务部门针对中国保险行业 推出的新企业所得税税收政策的一次性影响。财政部及国家税务总局于 2025 年 12 月 22 日发布了《关于保险合同准则转换有关企业所得税处理事 项的公告》，明确了保险企业在新准则下的企业所得税处理方式，可能对公 司所得税的计提产生影响。2024 年公司出于审慎考虑，一次性计提了高额 的递延税项，导致 2024 年有效税率上升至 42%。2025 年上半年有效税率 下降至 10.4%左右，我们估计，在税收政策清晰化的背景下，2025 年全年 公司有效税率亦处于低位，对公司归母净利润的提升提供一定推动作用。如 果假设 2025 年全年有效税率与上半年保持一致（10.4%），那么我们估计 2025 年全年公司税前利润增速可能在 80%~90%左右，税率的下降对公司 净利润的上涨存在较大助推作用。 负债端有望实现良好增长 展望 2026 年，行业负债端有望全面转向分红险。当前分红险的实际收益率 在 3%左右水平 ...

29[Table_Title] 【广发 非 银 & 海 外 】 中 国 太 平 （00966.HK） 低基数+税项亏损转回，业绩高增大超预期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 盈利预测： | [港元Table_Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 内含价值（百万港元） | 272,123 | 234,224 | 256,442 | 276,433 | 294,410 | | 增长率 | 2.41% | -13.93% | 9.49% | 7.80% | 6.50% | | 新业务价值（百万港元） | 7,512 | 9,103 | 10,212 | 11,410 | 12,954 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | 6,190 | 8,432 | 27,014 | 22,389 | 25,200 | | 增长率 | 44.05% | 36.22% | 220.37% | -17.12% | 12.55% | | EPS | 1.50 | 2.35 | 7.5 ...

证券研究报告 泡泡玛特 (9992 HK) | 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 1 月 | 20 日│中国香港 | 消费轻工 | 目标价(港币): | 410.00 | 港股通 泡泡玛特的三个潜在预期差 近期泡泡玛特市场预期受短期高频追踪数据影响明显，并导致对 IP 热度、 业绩成长持续性的担忧有所升温。我们追踪的数据显示，公司 Q4 国内、海 外业绩环比趋势呈现高韧性，在度过 Labubu 3.0 销售高峰后，IP 矩阵的力 量对销售增长形成坚实支撑。我们梳理了市场观点的三个潜在预期差：高频 数据的综合判断、新锐 IP 成长性、内容等 IP 生态布局的潜力（详见正文分 析）。公司 1 月 19 日以 2.51 亿港元回购 140 万股股份，每股回购价 177.7-181.2 港元，彰显对成长前景的信心。我们认为公司业绩增长的可持 续性以及中长期空间受低估，在当前市场分歧阶段估值具备吸引力，维持"买 入"评级，继续重点推荐。 维度一：Q4 海外市场表现或好于市场悲观预期 Q4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent with a target price of 792 HKD [6][5][28] Core Insights - Tencent's revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit projected to increase by 16% to 643 billion RMB [1] - Key growth drivers include the launch of multiple new games, improved advertising efficiency through AI, and enhanced support for AI mini-programs on WeChat [1][3][4] - The gaming segment is anticipated to see a 16% increase in revenue, while advertising revenue is expected to rise by 20% [2][4] Summary by Relevant Sections Gaming Business - Tencent's gaming revenue for Q4 is projected to grow by 16%, with the new game "Counter-Strike: Future" expected to generate 35-70 billion RMB in its first year [2][12] - The game fills a gap in Tencent's PVE shooting game offerings and has already achieved over 10 million players shortly after launch [2][12][16] Financial Technology - Financial technology revenue is expected to grow by 9%, driven by a slowdown in social retail growth [3] - AI mini-programs are anticipated to enhance e-commerce and local services, with significant growth expected in 2026 [3][19] Advertising Revenue - Advertising revenue is projected to increase by 20%, driven by budget increases from long-tail advertisers and efficiency improvements from AI [4] - WeChat's advertising capabilities are evolving, with new features aimed at enhancing social commerce [4][19] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for Tencent have been slightly adjusted downwards for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profit estimates also revised [5][24] - The target price of 792 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 21.6 for 2026, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [5][28][30]