Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at Jackson Hole on Aug. 22, 2025 in Wyoming.David A. Grogan | CNBCThe Federal Reserve meets this week with some big items on the agenda: An important rate decision and forecast of what's ahead, combined with a healthy dose of political intrigue uncommon for central bank policymakers.On the monetary side, the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday will release its ruling on where it will set the overnight borrowing rate. Along with that, officials will sketch ...

Core Insights - The yield curve serves as an indicator of the bond market's confidence in the U.S. monetary policy management [1] Group 1 - The yield curve reflects the bond market's perception of the effectiveness of U.S. monetary policy [1]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experienced slight declines of less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by nearly 0.3%, indicating cautious market sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [1][8][21] - Fund managers are the most bullish on stocks since February, according to Bank of America's latest survey, but investors are exercising caution ahead of the Fed's rate call [8][21] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting commenced under unusual political tension, with an appeals court blocking President Trump's attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, allowing her to participate in the discussions [2][10][12] - Market participants are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut with a 96% probability, while only a 4% chance is assigned to a larger half-point move [3][11][20] Retail Sales and Economic Indicators - The Commerce Department reported that August retail sales rose by 0.6%, significantly above the expected 0.2% increase, driven by strong clothing and e-commerce spending [9][21] - July retail sales were also revised higher, highlighting the resilience of US consumers despite slower hiring and persistent inflation [9][21] Individual Company Performances - Oracle shares surged nearly 3% following news of its involvement in a US-China TikTok deal, allowing the app to continue operating in the US under new oversight [6][18] - Tesla's stock gained about 1% after CEO Elon Musk purchased shares, erasing earlier year-to-date losses [6][18] - Novo Nordisk shares rose over 2% due to positive developments in its obesity drug research, despite being down approximately 30% year-to-date [7][18] Commodity Market - Gold prices reached a record high above $3,700 per ounce, up 44% year-to-date, driven by a weaker US dollar and expectations of Fed rate cuts [7][18]

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting later on Tuesday where an interest rate cut is all but priced in, at a time when the central bank faces unprecedented pressure from the White House over the direction of monetary policy. The U.S. Senate on Monday narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran to the Fed's Board of Governors, handing President Donald Trump's top economic adviser one of 12 interest rate-setting votes on the e ...

Core Points - The Senate confirmed Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors with a narrow vote of 48-47, reflecting a largely party-line decision in the Republican-controlled Senate [1] - Miran is expected to report to the Fed's headquarters as officials begin a two-day meeting to discuss the economic direction [1] - The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet on September 16 to set U.S. interest rates and broader monetary policy, which will impact borrowing costs across various sectors [2] Group 1 - Miran's confirmation follows President Trump's push for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, with Trump advocating for a reduction to 1% to stimulate economic growth [5][7] - Miran has committed to taking unpaid leave from his White House position while serving on the Fed's Board of Governors [6] - The Federal Reserve's current key borrowing rate is maintained within a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopting a wait-and-see approach due to ongoing trade policy impacts [9] Group 2 - The confirmation of Miran occurs amid legal challenges faced by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, who is suing Trump to retain her position on the board [12][13] - Cook's removal by Trump was based on allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denies, and a criminal investigation has been launched into her conduct [10][15] - If Trump successfully removes Cook, he will have nominated a majority of the Fed board, thereby increasing his influence over U.S. monetary policy [16]

Wall Street closed higher Monday as investors positioned themselves for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting, anticipating a potential interest rate cut.Market OverviewThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reached new intraday record highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained relatively flat. The S&P 500 closed at 6,615.31, up 0.47%, and the Nasdaq Composite finished at 22,323.25, gaining 0.82%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 45,839.54, a modest increase of 0.01%, Reuters rep ...

Central Bank Role - Central bank independence was a narrative [1] - Central banks primarily finance the state [1] - Fiscal and monetary policy are inseparable [1] Historical Context - The shift occurred after the 1970s, following the abandonment of the gold standard [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing increasing pressure regarding its independence and the composition of its policy-setting committee, particularly with President Trump's push for significant interest rate cuts amid concerns over job growth and rising unemployment [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Independence and Composition - A federal appeals court is set to rule on whether Fed Governor Lisa Cook can remain in her position while litigation regarding her potential firing by Trump is ongoing, which could impact the Fed's independence in monetary policy [2]. - The U.S. Senate is expected to confirm Stephen Miran to the Fed's Board of Governors, which may align the Fed more closely with the Trump administration's calls for aggressive rate cuts [3]. Group 2: Interest Rate Decisions - Trump has publicly urged the Fed to cut interest rates significantly, suggesting a reduction larger than previously considered, which he believes will boost the housing market [4]. - The Fed is anticipated to lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% at the conclusion of its meeting, despite concerns about inflation [4][5]. - Further rate cuts may occur in October and December, but at a slower pace than Trump's demands, as economists view his call for a 1% reduction as misaligned with the need to maintain stable inflation [5]. Group 3: Risks to Monetary Policy - A recent poll indicated that a majority of former Fed policymakers perceive a heightened risk that diminished Fed independence could lead to overly loose monetary policy and increased inflation [7].

Monetary Policy and Federal Reserve Actions - The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) for the first time in 2025, following a total cut of 100 bps in the last three meetings of 2024 [1][3] - The decision is complicated by low job gains, including a loss of 13,000 jobs in June, while inflation is slowly increasing, influenced by tariff policies [2] - There is speculation whether the rate cut could be larger, potentially reaching 50 bps, which would set rates between 3.75% and 4.00% for the first time in nearly three years [3] Political Influences on the Federal Reserve - The politicization of the Fed is evident, with President Trump criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being slow to reduce rates and attempting to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook over personal finance allegations [4] - A federal judge's injunction reversed Trump's decision to fire Cook, but the White House is contesting this to prevent her from voting in the upcoming FOMC meeting [4][6] - The Senate is set to vote on confirming Stephen Miran, a pro-Trump official, to the FOMC, who has previously advocated for a 300 bps rate cut [5] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The Empire State Manufacturing Index reported a negative reading of -8.7 for September, significantly below the expected +4.5 and a decline from August's 11.9 [7][8] - This marks the first negative reading in three months and reflects a broader trend, with seven out of the past twelve months showing negative growth in New York State manufacturing [9]

The Federal Reserve is widely expected this week to make its first interest rate cut of 2025, but the bigger question for investors is how many more cuts could be on the way as the central bank contends with a weak job market, sticky inflation, and mounting White House pressure. One clue will come in the form of the Fed's "dot plot," a chart updated quarterly that shows each official's prediction about the direction of the central bank's benchmark interest rate. The last dot plot, released in June, revea ...