证 券 研 究 报 告 非银金融行业深度研究报告 从铸币到流通：稳定币生态拆解 推荐（维持） ——稳定币系列报告之一 行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 07 月 11 日 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 联系人：崔祎晴 邮箱：cuiyiqing@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 华创证券研究所 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 71 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 73,466.14 | 6.95 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 56,759.47 | 6.82 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 8.5% | 13.3% | 50.4% | | 相对表现 | 4.8% | 5.9% | 33.4% | -8% 18% 44% 69% 24/07 24/09 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/07 2024-07-10~2025-07-10 非银行 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed an overall upward trend on July 11, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.05%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.94%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 1.19% [1][2] - The total market turnover reached 1.03 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase compared to the previous day [2] Key Sectors - The financial sector performed strongly, with major financial stocks leading the market rally [2] - The rare earth sector experienced a "blowout" performance, with significant gains in related stocks such as Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel, both hitting the daily limit [6][7] - Other sectors like CRO, fintech, and lithium extraction from salt lakes also saw upward movement, while education, photovoltaic, and circuit board sectors faced corrections [2] Rare Earth Sector - Rare earth and rare earth permanent magnet stocks surged, with Northern Rare Earth and Baotou Steel both reaching their daily limit [6] - The price of rare earth concentrate for related transactions was adjusted to 19,109 yuan per ton (excluding tax), a 1.5% increase from the previous quarter [8] - Demand for rare earth materials is expected to grow, with projections indicating that global demand for praseodymium and neodymium oxide will reach 117,000 tons and 126,900 tons in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7% and 8.4% [9] Fintech Sector - Fintech stocks saw significant gains, with companies like Guoao Technology and Anshuo Information rising over 14% [11] - Major state-owned banks also reached new highs, contributing to the overall positive sentiment in the fintech sector [13] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market mirrored the gains in the A-share market, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.9% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 2.08% [4] - Chinese brokerage stocks surged, with Zhongzhou Securities experiencing a rise of over 75% at one point during the trading session [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment value of significant events, the analysis of industry chain companies, and the interpretation of key policies, highlighting the collaboration in the stablecoin sector and advancements in AI platforms [1]. Group 1: Stablecoin and AI Collaboration - Multiple banks have reached agreements in the stablecoin sector, indicating a growing interest and investment in this area [1]. - The company is continuously investing in its AI platform, showcasing a commitment to enhancing its intelligent business segments [1]. Group 2: Client Engagement - The company has made significant progress in its AI-related business, with notable clients including ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent [1]. - A substantial order worth millions has been signed with a partner in the Harmony ecosystem, reflecting the company's strong market position and client trust [1].

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.9%, gaining 457 points to close at 24,485 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.08%. The early trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 175.9 billion [1] - In June, 150 A-share IPOs were accepted, and brokerage firms are expected to continue reporting high year-on-year growth in their mid-year results. Chinese brokerage stocks saw significant gains, with Zhongzhou Securities surging by 64% and Guolian Minsheng rising by 21% [1] - The Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting on stablecoins, leading to a rise in stablecoin-related stocks, including Guotai Junan International, which increased by 6.6% [1] Group 2 - TSMC reported a 40% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of the year, indicating ongoing domestic advancements in the semiconductor industry. Chip stocks rose, with Huahong Semiconductor gaining 4.12% [1] - The Bond Connect Southbound channel is set to expand, which is expected to alleviate pressure on the asset side for insurance companies. Domestic insurance stocks saw broad gains, with China Pacific Insurance rising by 5.6% [1] Group 3 - Greenland Hong Kong's stock surged over 17% after signing a cooperation agreement with Shenzhen Lihe for the "Shaoguan Intelligent Computing Center" [2] - Giant Star Legend's stock increased by over 20% following Jay Chou's first video release on Douyin, which attracted over 10 million followers [3] - Singularity National Peak's stock rose by 5% after signing a letter of intent to acquire an AI technology company [4] Group 4 - Fast Retailing, the parent company of Uniqlo, saw its stock drop nearly 6.6% due to a decline in revenue and profit in the Greater China region for the third fiscal quarter [5] - Yao Cai Securities fell over 2% after Ant International denied rumors of a partnership with Circle regarding stablecoins [6]

Market Performance - Today, Hong Kong stocks showed significant movements with various companies experiencing notable gains, including Now Medical Technology (02225) which rose over 5% after a partnership with David Medical to develop "Minimally Invasive 5.0" technology [1] - Semiconductor stocks also saw an uptick, with Huahong Semiconductor (01347) increasing by 4.12%, and SMIC (01347) rising by 3.11% [1][2] - Hong Kong Travel (00308) surged over 14%, doubling its stock price in less than a month, driven by speculation in the tourism industry [1] - Meituan-W (03690) rose over 3% as it led an investment in Star Sea Map, furthering its focus on embodied intelligence [1] - The insurance sector saw broad gains, with China Pacific Insurance (02601) up 4.88% and China Life Insurance (02318) increasing by 3.19% [1] Company-Specific Developments - Alibaba-W (09988) increased over 3%, although its investment in instant retail and delivery services may impact profitability, according to HSBC [2] - Qian Shi International (00381) skyrocketed by over 55% due to a proposed digital economy collaboration involving a stablecoin mechanism [2] - Stablecoin-related stocks rose, with Guotai Junan International (01788) up 9.13% and China Everbright Holdings (00165) increasing by 4.83% [2] - Yadi Holdings (01585) gained over 4% following the announcement of a new electric vehicle replacement program [3] - WuXi AppTec (02359) opened nearly 5% higher after announcing expected revenue exceeding 20 billion yuan and a projected doubling of net profit [3] Industry Trends - The electric vehicle sector is expected to see growth due to a new replacement program, which could accelerate industry expansion [3] - The rare earth sector is also experiencing upward momentum, with Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680) rising over 5% after major players announced price increases [3] - The biotechnology sector is witnessing positive developments, with Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (02096) gaining over 3% after a collaboration with Conade Biopharmaceuticals [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has entered a bullish phase, driven by various positive factors including policy changes and economic stabilization, with significant movements in major indices and stocks [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares experienced a significant rally, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1% and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.92%, indicating a strong market volume [1]. - The A50 index saw a sharp increase, particularly after 9:50 AM, suggesting a bullish technical indicator [1]. - Major blue-chip stocks showed resilience, with only three out of the top 33 stocks declining [2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Bank stocks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, reached historical highs, reflecting strong expectations for stability in their fundamentals [2]. - The brokerage sector also saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting their daily limits, indicating robust investor interest [2]. Group 3: External Influences - The A-share market's surge occurred despite a downturn in global stock index futures, highlighting its relative strength [3]. - External factors such as potential tariffs announced by Trump and geopolitical tensions have not adversely affected the A-share market, which has shown increased buying activity in large-cap stocks [3]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The current bullish trend is attributed to increasing certainty in the market, driven by policies aimed at reducing internal competition and stabilizing the economy [4]. - Analysts suggest that the upcoming significant events and a favorable trade environment between China and the U.S. provide a clear window for bullish market activity [4]. Group 5: Global Market Sentiment - Goldman Sachs has raised its outlook for Asian equities, citing a more favorable macroeconomic environment and increased certainty regarding tariffs [5]. - The MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) index target was increased by 3%, indicating a projected 9% return in USD terms over the next 12 months [5].

Group 1 - The Xinchang ETF fund (562030) focused on the software development industry has seen a rise of 1.14% in its market price, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Xinghuan Technology (over 6% increase) and Geer Software (nearly 6% increase) [1] - The Shenzhen Blockchain Association hosted a seminar on July 3, focusing on the liquidity challenges of real assets and promoting the digital circulation of "silent assets" worth trillions [2] - The Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a meeting on July 10 to discuss the development trends of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, emphasizing the integration of blockchain technology in various sectors [3] Group 2 - The Xinchang ETF fund tracks the CSI Xinchang Index, which covers core segments of the Xinchang industry chain, including basic hardware, software, and information security, indicating high growth and elasticity [4] - Four key investment logic points for the Xinchang industry include: 1) urgent demand for self-control due to geopolitical tensions; 2) potential recovery in government procurement; 3) breakthroughs in new technologies by domestic manufacturers; 4) critical timing for procurement standards [5] - The Big Data Industry ETF (516700) tracks the CSI Big Data Industry Index, focusing on sectors like data centers and cloud computing, with major stocks including Inspur Information and China Software [6]

Group 1 - The securities sector is experiencing a significant rally due to market recovery and the concept of stablecoins, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3500 points, reaching a new high for the year [1] - The Securities ETF (512880) surged by 3%, with a net inflow exceeding 1 billion yuan in the past 10 days, and its current scale surpassing 31.2 billion yuan, ranking first among similar products [1] - Guosheng Jin控预计 its net profit for the first half of 2025 to be between 150 million and 220 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 236.85% to 394.05% [1] - Hadao股份预计 its net profit for the first half of 2025 to be 380 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 233.1%, and a non-recurring net profit of 361 million yuan, up 436.5% [1] Group 2 - A-share IPO approvals saw explosive growth in the first half of the year, with a total of 177 companies approved, an increase of 148 from the previous year, marking a growth rate of 510.3% [2] - In June alone, 150 companies were approved, accounting for 84.75% of the total, with June 30 seeing a record 41 approvals in a single day [2] - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the market recovery and favorable policies, leading to further valuation recovery in the brokerage sector [2] Group 3 - Hong Kong has introduced a comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, with several companies applying for stablecoin licenses, indicating regulatory support for the business [2] - The frequency of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry has increased since 2024, reflecting regulatory policies aimed at enhancing industry concentration [2] - Notable mergers include Guolian + Minsheng, Zheshang + Guodu, and Ping An + Fangzheng, indicating a trend towards "strong alliances" or "regional collaboration" [2] Group 4 - Through mergers and restructuring, resource integration among companies with similar shareholders is expected to accelerate, enhancing profitability in the industry [3] - The policy support for building a strong financial nation through mergers and acquisitions is a long-term logic that should not be overlooked in the valuation of the securities industry [3] - The Securities ETF (512880) tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, providing exposure to major securities firms in A-shares, with a current scale exceeding 30 billion yuan and superior liquidity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial technology sector is experiencing significant activity, particularly in stablecoin-related stocks, with notable gains in various companies and ETFs, indicating a positive market sentiment and investment potential in this area [1][3]. Group 1: Market Activity - Stablecoin concept stocks are active, with companies like Guoao Technology hitting a 20% limit up, and others like New Wisdom Software and Geer Software rising over 5% [1]. - The financial technology ETF (159851) is showing strong performance, with a price increase of over 2% and a trading volume surpassing 300 million yuan, indicating increased investor interest [1][2]. - Over the past five days, the financial technology ETF has attracted over 370 million yuan in capital inflow, highlighting its liquidity and market appeal [1][3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - According to招商证券, technology innovation remains a key growth theme, with a focus on financial technology as a promising investment direction [3]. - The stablecoin and Real World Assets (RWA) are identified as clear development directions within financial technology, with international advancements in tokenization of securities [3]. - The financial technology ETF (159851) has a current scale exceeding 6.6 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 500 million yuan in the past six months, showcasing its liquidity advantages [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency assets globally, highlighting a trend towards more lenient regulations, particularly in the United States under Trump's administration, which is expected to influence other economies [1][18][22]. Group 1: Definition and Classification of Cryptocurrency Assets - There is no unified definition of cryptocurrency assets globally; terms like "cryptocurrency," "crypto assets," "virtual assets," and "digital assets" are often used interchangeably. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) defines crypto assets as private sector digital assets primarily relying on cryptography and distributed ledger technology (DLT) [2][6]. - Cryptocurrency assets are categorized into three main types: cryptocurrencies (e.g., Bitcoin, Ethereum), stablecoins (which have value stabilization mechanisms), and asset tokenization (where off-chain assets are represented on the blockchain) [5][6]. Group 2: Regulatory Positions of Major Economies - Regulatory stances on cryptocurrency assets can be classified into three categories: prohibition (e.g., China, Bangladesh), open attitude with minimal regulation (e.g., Switzerland, UAE), and regulated environments (e.g., the US, EU, Japan, UK) [7][8]. - The US lacks a unified federal regulatory framework, with 32 states being friendly towards crypto assets and 18 states imposing strict regulations. The EU's MiCA regulation, effective from June 30, 2023, is the most comprehensive framework to date [8][9]. Group 3: Specific Regulatory Developments - The US is moving towards a more supportive regulatory framework for cryptocurrency assets, with Trump signing an executive order to establish a digital asset market working group and develop a federal regulatory framework within 180 days [11][12]. - The EU's MiCA requires crypto asset issuers to disclose project information, maintain sufficient reserve assets, and meet minimum capital requirements, while also mandating licensing for service providers [12][13]. - Japan is considering easing tax requirements on crypto assets and aligning them with existing financial product regulations, while the UK plans to introduce a comprehensive regulatory framework by 2026 [14]. Group 4: International Regulatory Standards - International standard-setting bodies are working to create global regulatory benchmarks to avoid fragmentation and regulatory gaps in cryptocurrency asset oversight. The FSB has issued high-level recommendations for regulating crypto assets and global stablecoins [15][17]. Group 5: Dynamic Regulatory Landscape - The global regulatory environment for cryptocurrency assets is shifting towards leniency, influenced by the US government's supportive stance, which may encourage other countries to follow suit. This trend is evident as countries like Russia and several Middle Eastern nations are relaxing their regulations [18][21][23].