Group 1 - The article discusses the shift of high-quality new consumer assets from the A-share market to offshore markets, questioning whether the guidance and focus on hard technology have resulted in substantial tech assets [2] - A new consumer index is formed by 12 selected Hong Kong stocks that resonate with young consumers, including popular brands and entertainment companies [2][3] - The performance of Hong Kong new consumer stocks shows stable growth compared to the declining revenue growth in various A-share consumption categories, with home appliances and gaming being the few exceptions [7] Group 2 - The rise of new consumption is seen as a natural consequence of young consumers wanting to differentiate from traditional consumption patterns, despite the understanding that new consumption will eventually age [9] - The article reflects on the past four years since the peak of new consumption, noting that many investors have exited the market while some have profited from holding onto their investments [12][13] - The current resurgence of new consumption is viewed as a reasonable value return, emphasizing that consumption remains a timeless theme despite changes in the economic landscape and consumer mindset [15][16] Group 3 - The article highlights the disparity in retail pricing and consumer behavior between different city tiers, indicating that lower-tier cities may not experience the same level of economic downturn as higher-tier cities [17][23] - It critiques the homogenization of shopping malls, which have failed to attract consumers due to lack of diversity and innovation, leading to a decline in foot traffic [19] - The post-pandemic consumer behavior reflects a desire for affordable entertainment rather than luxury spending, indicating a shift in spending priorities [20][26] Group 4 - The article discusses the challenges faced by hard technology investments, noting that many projects struggle to achieve significant revenue and profit, despite high valuations [29][32] - It contrasts the investment landscape in China with that of the US and Europe, where manufacturing and industrial companies often face valuation ceilings [33][34] - The article concludes that while consumption has regained wealth effects in the market, there is a cautionary note about the potential for rapid speculative behavior among investors [35][36]

2025 年 5 月 8 日 宏观策略 "五一"假期数据一览：消费市场显韧性，新兴消费势头良好 2025 年"五一"假期，受拼假人数提升、以及各地文旅消费补贴政策发力等 多重因素驱动，出行热度有所提升。据国家文化和旅游部数据，假期 5 天全国 国内出游 3.14 亿人次，同比增长 6.4%；我国游客出游总花费 1802.69 亿元人民 币（下同），同比增长 8.0%；人均消费 574.1 元，同比增长 1.5%，2019 年为 603 元。 "五一"假期数据显示当前关税等外部性因素对内需影响有限，消费市场展现 出较好韧性，在促消费政策叠加假期效应下，餐饮及零售收入均有明显提升。 从结构上看，消费升级与理性消费并存，居民更倾向于通过小额情绪消费、精 品消费等方式寻求满足感。随着内需动能持续恢复，新兴消费有望在当前经济 环境下保持良好表现，预期更多政策支持和居民收入稳定增长的配合有望支持 全面消费复苏。 出行：居民出行意愿增加，跨区域人流量明显增加。 据交通运输部初步统计，5 月 1 日至 5 日，预计全社会跨区域人员流动量累计 14.67 亿人次，日均 2.93 亿人次，同比增长 8%。具体来看：公路跨区域人员 ...

一 、库存周期的本质 ： 供需错配的动态平衡 白酒库存周期的本质是 供给刚性与需求弹性的错配 。 供给端的长周期属性 ： 高端白酒 （ 如茅台 、五粮液 ）生产需经历制曲 、发酵 、蒸馏 、陈酿等环节 ，陈酿时间可达 3-5 年 ， 导致产能释放存在明显滞后性13 。这种 " 生产 - 库存 - 销售 " 的长链条使得企业难以快速响应市场需 求变化 ，容易积累库存压力 。例如 ，泸州老窖因 2020 年技改新增 10 万吨产能 ，半成品酒库存从 2018 年的 46.96 亿元增至 2024 年的 123 亿元 。而中低端白酒生产周期较短 （ 如五粮液系列酒基 酒仅需 81 天 ），库存周转相对灵活 ，但受价格敏感型需求波动影响更大 。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 资悟堂 来源：雪球 " 白酒行业的库存周期是生产刚性 、需求弹性 、渠道博弈 、政策调控等多因素共同作用的结果 。当 前行业处于主动去库后期 ，预计 2025 年末逐步进入补库 ，但价格带分化 、集中度提升 、消费分层 等结构性变革将重塑竞争格局 。企业需通过品牌护城河 ...