All right. So, what is what are we seeing in the options market ahead of the August 1 deadline. Are we still start are we still seeing people trying to play it even though we've seen a number of deals get done.>> Yeah, there's definitely opportunities right now in terms of trying to pro buy some downside protection, but largely investors are not particularly bidding up puts ahead of this tariff deadline. It really reflects the fact that investors are not particularly concerned here. as you say uh there's a ...

Economic Indicators - U S Q2 核心 PCE 初值增长 25% 预期为 23% 前值为 35% [1] - 实际 GDP 增长 3% 预期为 24% 前值为 -05% [1]

Market Trends & Economic Factors - This week's events, including the Fed decision, PPE data, and jobs report, could be an inflection point for stocks trading near records [1] - Markets are pricing in potential weakness in the labor market, despite current strength [4] - Tariffs are now six times higher than when Trump took office, representing the highest levels in post-World War history, which could become an issue [3] - Confidence is returning, leading to increased spending, particularly in CapEx [15] Company Performance & Earnings - UPS stock has been a disaster for 3.5-4 years, cut in half, indicating company-specific problems [5] - Coinbase's upcoming report is crucial given its recent run; strong results are needed to justify valuation [6] - Tech earnings, particularly Google's, are in focus; while Google had a good quarter and guidance, CapEx spending is now viewed with caution [7][8] - Meta's spending on talent and CapEx, coupled with Llama 3's performance, raises concerns about profitability [9][10] - Microsoft's Azure is gaining traction in AI sales due to its OpenAI relationship [11] Bond Market & Yields - The bond market is stubborn, with yields starting to tick up, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [6] - There will be a level where the market starts to care about bond yields [7]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains elevated to some extent [1] - The unemployment rate continues to stay low, reflecting a stable labor market condition [1] - Current indicators suggest that the actual GDP is steadily growing in the second quarter [1] Inflation Metrics - The total consumer price inflation measured by the 12-month change in Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is estimated at 2.3% for May [1] - The core PCE for May stands at 2.6%, with both total and core inflation rates lower than the levels at the beginning of the year [1] - Short-term inflation expectations based on surveys remain high, while most long-term inflation expectation indicators remain stable [1]

Income and Spending - Personal income decreased by 04% month-over-month, a notable shift from the strong performance throughout 2025 [1] - Spending also declined by 01% month-over-month, falling short of expectations [2] - Real spending experienced a decrease of 03%, contrasting with expectations of remaining near unchanged [3] Inflation Data - PCE increased by 01% month-over-month, aligning with expectations [4] - Year-over-year PCE stood at 23%, precisely as anticipated [4] - Core PCE rose by 02% month-over-month, exceeding expectations by 01% [5] - Core PCE year-over-year reached 27%, indicating a stickiness in inflation [5][6] Interest Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decrease of approximately 12 basis points on the week, settling at 426% [7] - The 2-year Treasury yield saw a significant drop of nearly 20 basis points on the week, reaching 372-373% [7][8] - The report suggests that achieving the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target remains challenging [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for renewed conflict between Israel and Iran, emphasizing the U.S. stance on sanctions and inflation concerns, which may impact future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Predictions - The article provides predictions for the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, indicating a high probability of maintaining the current interest rate of 4.25%-4.50% on July 31, 2025, at 75.2% [4]. - There is a 68.1% chance of the rate being between 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025, and a 51.3% chance of it being between 3.75%-4.00% on October 30, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The article notes that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a critical level at the Bollinger middle band around 3355, which will determine the market's direction [5]. - A bearish flag pattern is forming, indicating potential downward pressure on gold prices, with key support levels around 3300 [7]. - The article highlights the importance of the upper and lower boundaries of a rising wedge pattern, suggesting that a breach of these levels could lead to significant market movements [7].

has left the room and I do want to bring him in. Um, a couple things are clear here to me, Steve. Number one, um, it seems the Fed chair believes that the tariffs have put both sides of the mandate into question and they're going to have to wait and see on how to deal with all of that.And that Pal himself doesn't seem to be a huge fan of these SCPs either. Um, and he revisited the refrain from the last meeting, throwing back at the reporter who asked him the question, "What would you write? We'll do the bes ...

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for May in the U.S. showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, matching expectations, while the core PPI rose by 3.0%, slightly below the anticipated 3.1% [1] - Month-on-month, the PPI increased by only 0.1%, which was lower than the expected 0.2%, indicating a slowdown in price growth [1] - The report highlights that despite the current high tariff policies not significantly impacting consumers, there may be increased price pressures in the second half of the year as companies seek to maintain profit margins [1] Sector Analysis - **Services**: The service sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, primarily driven by a 2.9% rise in trade service margins, although transportation and warehousing services decreased by 0.2% [2] - **Goods**: Goods prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with notable increases in tobacco products (up 0.9%) and gasoline, while jet fuel prices fell by 8.2% [3] - **Core PPI**: Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, indicating stable underlying inflation trends [4] Intermediate Demand - **Processed Goods**: There was a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in processed goods, with processed materials (excluding food and energy) rising by 0.4%, while processed energy goods fell by 1.2% [5] - **Unprocessed Goods**: Unprocessed goods saw a significant month-on-month decline of 1.6%, primarily driven by an 18.7% drop in energy materials like natural gas, alongside a 1.4% decrease in non-food materials [6] Key Price Movements - **Price Increases**: Key items that saw price increases included tobacco (+0.9%), gasoline, diesel, and primary non-ferrous metals (+4.6%) [8] - **Price Decreases**: Items that experienced price declines included jet fuel (-8.2%), pork, carbon steel scrap, and natural gas (-18.7%) [9] - **Service Sector Prices**: In the service sector, air passenger transport prices fell by 1.1%, while furniture retail and securities brokerage services also declined, contrasting with increases in system software publishing [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound and short [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar: Volatile [2] - Glass: Rebound [2] - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Futures/Options: Volatile [2][4] - Shanghai 50 Index Futures/Options: Rebound [2][4] - CSI 500 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - CSI 1000 Index Futures/Options: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury Bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond: Rebound [4] - Gold: High - level volatile [4] - Silver: Strong - side volatile [4] - Pulp: Weak - side volatile [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Weak - side volatile [6] - Meal products: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Volatile [8] - Rubber: Volatile [8] - PX: On - the - fence [8][10] - PTA: Try shorting at high prices [10] - MEG: On - the - fence [10] - PR: On - the - fence [10] - PF: On - the - fence [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand relationship in the black - series commodities market is gradually loosening, with the iron ore market facing the impact of reduced demand and increased tariffs, and the coking coal and coke markets suffering from high supply and weak demand [2]. - The real - estate market remains in an adjustment period, which restricts the demand for glass [2]. - The stock index shows a certain degree of differentiation, and the market sentiment is affected by economic data and policies [4]. - The price of gold is influenced by multiple factors such as central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies [4]. - The pulp market is under pressure due to cost reduction and weak demand [6]. - The supply of logs is expected to decrease, while the demand remains relatively stable [6]. - The edible - oil market is in a weak - side volatile state due to factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption [6]. - The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships [6]. - The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile [8]. - The rubber market presents a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. - The polyester - related product markets have different supply - demand situations, and the prices are affected by cost and downstream demand [8][10]. Summary by Categories Black - Series Commodities - **Iron ore**: The global iron - ore shipping volume has rebounded, but the iron - water production has declined for four consecutive weeks, and the supply - demand relationship is gradually loosening. The port inventory is still decreasing, but attention should be paid to the continuous decline of iron - water production. Trump's tariff increase has a negative impact on the market. It is recommended to hold short positions and add positions during emotional rebounds [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Some coal mines have stopped or reduced production, but the high - supply and weak - demand pattern is difficult to change. The coke enterprises' profits will be compressed, and the inventory pressure is increasing. The market mainly follows the trend of finished products [2]. - **Rebar**: Trump's tariff increase has weakened the market sentiment. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is poor. The total inventory of steel products is decreasing, but the decline has slowed down. The price is likely to fall rather than rise [2]. Building Materials - **Glass**: The fundamentals lack positive factors, and the price has rebounded due to environmental - protection restrictions. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased for the first time in two months. In the long term, the demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real - estate industry [2]. Financial Futures - **Stock index futures/options**: The performance of different stock indexes varies. The market is affected by economic data such as CPI and PPI, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The market interest rate is consolidating, and the Treasury - bond price has a narrow - range rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and it is affected by central - bank gold purchases, inflation, and trade policies. The short - term price is affected by factors such as the US non - farm data and tariff policies. Attention should be paid to economic data and trade negotiations [4]. Forestry Products - **Pulp**: The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand has entered the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Logs**: The demand is relatively stable, and the supply is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile [6]. Agricultural Products - **Edible oils**: The Southeast Asian palm - oil production is in an increasing cycle, and the domestic edible - oil market is affected by factors such as production increase and seasonal consumption. It is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Meal products**: The meal - product market is expected to rebound, affected by weather conditions and supply - demand relationships. Attention should be paid to weather and supply - arrival situations [6]. - **Live pigs**: The live - pig market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to remain weakly volatile with limited downward space [8]. - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has decreased. The price lacks strong upward momentum [8]. Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply has increased, and the demand is affected by polyester production reduction. The price follows the trend of oil prices, and the PXN spread still has support [8][10]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and the spot price follows the cost - end to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester devices [10]. - **MEG**: The short - to - medium - term supply - demand structure is good, and the price is supported. Attention should be paid to the change in polyester load [10]. - **PR**: The raw - material support is weak, and the market is adjusted weakly and steadily [10]. - **PF**: The market is expected to be sorted warmly under the game of multiple factors [10].

Group 1 - The report highlights the relationship between contract goods and industrial enterprise profits, indicating that inventory destocking and order prosperity are key directions for asset allocation [5][7] - In May 2025, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.5%, reflecting a slight recovery in manufacturing market demand, although it remains below the first quarter average [11][12] - The report notes that the domestic equity market showed a mixed performance, with 18 industries rising and 13 falling, indicating sector-specific dynamics [6][20] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of external factors such as the U.S. increasing steel import tariffs to 50%, which may affect related industries [17] - It mentions the extension of certain exemptions from the U.S. Section 301 tariffs on China, which could influence trade dynamics [19] - The report emphasizes the need for policies to support growth in light of ongoing economic challenges, particularly in the real estate sector [11][14] Group 3 - The analysis of industrial enterprise profits shows a 3.0% year-on-year increase in April 2025, despite a 2.7% decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), suggesting a complex relationship between costs and profitability [7][8] - The report identifies sectors such as agricultural product processing and electrical machinery as performing well, while sectors like automotive and power equipment faced declines [6][8] - The report indicates that the recovery in manufacturing is supported by a decrease in raw material costs, which may benefit midstream manufacturing leaders [7][8]