Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy is in a complex and fragile state, facing high public debt, an aging population, external trade pressures, and potential risks in the financial system, leading to concerns about a possible debt crisis similar to Greece, although short-term risks are mitigated [1] Short-term Buffer - Japan's public debt is projected to reach 1350 trillion yen, accounting for 263% of GDP, significantly higher than Greece's 142% during its crisis [2] - 87% of Japan's public debt is held by domestic institutions, with the Bank of Japan holding 46.3%, which reduces default risk due to currency sovereignty [2] - Japan's net debt level is at 114%, with interest payments projected to be 1.7% of GDP in 2025, approximately 16.5 trillion yen, much lower than Greece's 5% to 7% during its crisis [2] Long-term Challenges - Japan faces significant challenges from an aging population, with social security spending expected to reach 42 trillion yen by 2025, constituting 36% of total government spending [3] - Tax revenue is only 18.2% of GDP, insufficient to cover total expenditures, leading to a growing fiscal deficit [3] - External economic pressures include a depreciating yen increasing import costs, particularly for energy, and potential tariffs on Japanese cars from the U.S., which could result in a revenue loss of $10 billion to $15 billion [3] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Bank of Japan holds 575.9 trillion yen in government bonds, exceeding 100% of GDP, but rising interest rates have led to unrealized losses of about $200 billion [4] - Insurance companies have also faced losses of around $60 billion due to falling bond prices, impacting their willingness to purchase government bonds [4] - Japanese financial institutions are heavily involved in the $98 trillion "global dollar shadow debt," which could lead to significant losses if global liquidity tightens [4] Political Landscape and Fiscal Policy - The upcoming July Senate elections are critical for Japan's fiscal policy, with the ruling coalition potentially losing its majority, which could lead to increased fiscal deficits due to proposed tax cuts and subsidies [5] - The government faces a dilemma between maintaining fiscal discipline to uphold market confidence and providing subsidies to meet voter demands [5] - Increased defense spending is further constraining budget space, and any relaxation of fiscal discipline could trigger a sell-off in the bond market, reminiscent of the pre-crisis situation in Greece [5]

Core Viewpoint - The construction of an independent Chinese fiscal knowledge system is essential for addressing China's fiscal issues and supporting the modernization and national rejuvenation efforts, guided by Xi Jinping's economic thought [1][5][15]. Group 1: Theoretical Foundation - The independent Chinese fiscal knowledge system must integrate Marxist principles with China's specific realities and excellent traditional culture, forming its core and root [2][3]. - The system should be based on the successful practices of China's fiscal policies since the establishment of the new China, particularly post-reform and opening up, which cannot be solely derived from foreign textbooks [4][5]. Group 2: Practical Application - The primary goal of constructing the independent fiscal knowledge system is to closely align with the practical needs of China's modernization, ensuring that fiscal practices are effectively communicated and understood [5][6]. - The system should focus on elevating successful fiscal experiences to a theoretical level, contributing to knowledge and theoretical innovation in the field of fiscal studies [5][12]. Group 3: Market Economy Context - The socialist market economy system serves as the foundational basis for the independent fiscal knowledge system, emphasizing the relationship between government and market roles in resource allocation [6][7]. - The system must address both public needs and market failures, ensuring that fiscal activities are defined and structured according to the requirements of a high-level socialist market economy [8][9]. Group 4: Logical Framework - The independent fiscal knowledge system should prioritize meeting social public needs as its underlying logic, moving beyond traditional state-centric definitions of fiscal activities [10][11]. - This approach allows for a comprehensive understanding of fiscal operations and their evolution in response to societal demands, thereby enhancing the relevance of fiscal policies [11][12]. Group 5: Strategic Goals - The transition from "localization" to "Chinese autonomy" in fiscal studies reflects a higher ambition to establish a self-sufficient and independent theoretical framework that serves China's modernization efforts [12][13]. - Emphasizing autonomy does not exclude the incorporation of beneficial elements from foreign fiscal theories, but rather seeks to harmonize these insights with China's unique context [13][14]. Group 6: Historical Context - The construction of the independent fiscal knowledge system must be situated within the broader historical context of building a modern socialist state, reflecting the achievements of civilization progress [15][16]. - Understanding the relationship between modern fiscal systems and governance is crucial for developing a fiscal framework that aligns with contemporary needs and future directions [16][17].

巴西财政部副部长Galipolo：财政政策影响当前的通胀水平和市场预期，央行需要了解各类经济主体受 到的影响方式。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Cambodian government plans to gradually reduce fiscal budget deficits and public debt over the next three years to ensure fiscal stability and sustainability [2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Strategy - The government is implementing a "gradual fiscal consolidation" approach to balance fiscal stability, support sustained economic growth, and achieve long-term development goals [2]. - The fiscal budget deficit is targeted to be kept below 3% of GDP, decreasing from 3.08% in 2025 to 2.19% in 2026, remaining at 2.19% in 2027, and slightly increasing to 2.32% in 2028 [2][3]. Group 2: Revenue and Expenditure Projections - Total government revenue is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.3%, reaching 14.43% of GDP by 2028 [3]. - Total government expenditure is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.8%, reaching 16.74% of GDP by 2028, slightly lower than 16.83% in 2025 [3]. - Capital expenditure is expected to decrease by 10.9% in 2026 compared to 2025 due to a significant reduction in foreign aid and concessional loans [3]. Group 3: Taxation and Economic Context - Despite the economic recovery in 2023, government tax revenue has not increased correspondingly, with a significant slowdown in tax growth from 2021 to 2023 [4]. - The new investment law providing generous tax incentives has contributed to the decline in tax revenue, prompting recommendations for the government to expand the tax base while implementing tax reductions [4]. - The IMF has noted that due to weakened economic momentum and increased tax exemptions, the budget deficit is expected to rise to 3% of GDP this year, slightly higher than 2.8% last year [4].

Core Viewpoint - The 20-year U.S. Treasury yield closed below the 30-year yield for the first time in nearly four years, indicating a normalization of the long end of the yield curve [1] Group 1: Yield Curve Dynamics - The long-term Treasury yields have been rising due to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates [1] - The increase in yields is also attributed to bets that expanding fiscal deficits will lead to an increase in Treasury supply [1] Group 2: Historical Context - On Monday, the 30-year Treasury yield was slightly higher than the 20-year yield, marking the first occurrence since October 2021 [1] - In 2022, the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle caused yields across all maturities to rise, with the 20-year yield at one point exceeding the 30-year yield by as much as 30 basis points [1]

Group 1 - Concerns over Japan potentially increasing bond issuance have impacted the global long-term bond market, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury prices [1][2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 4 basis points to 4.42%, marking the longest rising cycle since April [1] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5%, while Japanese and German 30-year bond yields are also reaching significant levels [1][2] Group 2 - The global long-term bond market is facing turmoil as traditional buyers exit the market amid increasing bond supply, particularly affecting the UK and Japan [4] - Japanese long-term bonds have seen significant price drops, with the 30-year bond yield exceeding 3%, nearing historical highs [4] - Major Japanese life insurance companies, traditionally significant buyers of long-term bonds, are avoiding such securities due to rising interest rates and supply pressures [4] Group 3 - In the U.S., budget deficit concerns are bringing bond supply back into focus, with upcoming auctions for 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasuries [5] - Recent strong economic data has diminished expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, impacting U.S. Treasury performance [5] - The swap market now indicates two potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, contrasting with earlier expectations of three cuts [5]

英国首相发言人Wells：英国政府正着力控制公共财政。 ...

英国首相发言人：英国政府正努力稳定公共财政。 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观经济研究*专题报告 2025 年 07 月 08 日 宏观经济研究 财政政策与居民消费的关系（上） 我们在之前的报告中已经阐述，李嘉图等价理论在中国愈发明显，政府赤字 率的上升会降低居民的边际消费倾向。这种观点饱受挑战。以克鲁格曼为代 表的经济学家认为流动性陷阱（去杠杆过程中）李嘉图等价关系不会存在。 本文通过 RBC 模型来模拟财政支出对居民消费和消费倾向的影响。 根据理论分析和实证研究，我们发现在财政平衡的要求下，财政支出对居民 消费具有一定的挤出效应。但在居民消费意愿主动下降的情况下，财政支 出更有利于稳定消费和经济。不过这也在一定程度上会降低居民消费倾 向。通过 RBC 模型和模拟，我们发现劳动供给弹性是影响居民消费倾向 变动的主要影响因素，通过将劳动供给弹性分为我们之前的测算值-0.12， 以及作为比较的 0.8 两种情况，结果显示劳动供给弹性越高，居民消费倾 向越低，财政乘数越低。 本文我们没有考虑债务融资下的财政支出以及流动性陷阱下的财政支出 对居民消费的影响，这些将在未来的研究中进行深入探讨。 风险提示：国内宏观经济政策不及预期；数据提取不及时；财政政策、货币 政策超预期 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced volatility, initially dropping below $3,300 to $3,296.37 before rebounding to close at $3,336.19 [1] - The U.S. stock market saw a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.94% to 44,406.36 points, the S&P 500 down 0.79% to 6,229.98 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.92% to 20,412.52 points [1] - The U.S. government announced new tariffs on imports from 14 countries, with rates ranging from 25% to 40% depending on the country [4] Group 2 - The EU is still negotiating with the U.S. for a bilateral trade agreement before July 9, amidst rising tensions over tariffs [5] - Concerns are growing that the new tariffs could exacerbate inflation in the U.S., impacting consumer spending [6] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the market is factoring in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with expectations of two cuts remaining this year [8] Group 3 - The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to maintain its cash rate at 3.85%, contrary to market expectations of a rate cut [9] - Recent unexpected rate cuts by central banks in Poland and Norway highlight a trend of monetary policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [11] - Investor sentiment in the U.S. stock market has shifted, with a recovery in indices despite ongoing concerns about tariffs and inflation [11]