Market Trends - The current market consensus indicates that internal reforms are needed to counter external uncertainties, which is fundamental for a sustained bull market in equities [1] - The divergence in equity structure is significant, influenced by urbanization and real estate value reassessment, traditional cyclical industry profit reversals, and ongoing technological innovation [1] Cyclical Recovery vs. Revival - The market showed mixed signals with cyclical commodities experiencing sporadic increases, such as coking coal rising by 8.8% and silver by 5.4% [1] - The real estate sector saw a 6.1% increase, while steel and construction materials rose by 4.4% and 3.3% respectively [1] Global Asset Trends - Global stock markets displayed divergence, with the Russian MOEX index down by 5.7% and Brazil's index down by 3.6% [2] - The U.S. economic uncertainties are beginning to weaken their impact on global markets, while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing global risk premiums [2] Domestic Economic Environment - China's exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year in June, slightly above expectations, but exports to the U.S. fell by 16.1% [6] - The overall economic outlook for the second half of 2025 is uncertain, with expectations of a decline in exports and potential depreciation of the RMB [6] Policy and Investment Strategies - The cyclical recovery is influenced by supply-demand dynamics and government policies aimed at stimulating demand through supply adjustments [9] - The potential for a cyclical recovery exists, but its impact on the economy and employment is constrained by the need for long-term policy effectiveness [11] Investment Logic - The investment strategy should focus on central enterprises and state-owned assets, as the market dynamics favor those with stronger operational capabilities [12]

关税"通胀雷"今夜引爆？ 美国6月CPI将于今晚20:30重磅公布，预期数据全面上扬。此前多名官员预警通胀将于今夏起回升，若 数据坐实关税传导效应，美联储九月降息恐成幻影。届时市场恐剧烈波动，敬请投资者留意相关风险。 点击查看更多前瞻... 6月CPI能否验证关税冲击？黄金多头蠢蠢欲动！ 经济学家预计6月CPI将真正显示关税影响，而此前数月的CPI读数均被高估。美联储若再度失算，特朗 普政府恐怕不会放过...... ...

金融市场今晚迎来本周的重中之重——美国6月CPI报告，特朗普不断变化的关税政策一直在挑动市场的神经，对于通胀的担忧也让市场对于美联储降息的 信心不时动摇，所以今晚的报告有助于设定对美联储下一步行动的预期。市场预期CPI年率将加速至2.7%（前值2.4%）；核心CPI预计为3%（前值2.8%）。 尽管最近几个月的经济数据显示，总体通胀仍然相当温和，但是最新的数据可以看到加快。经济学家警告，特朗普对大多数进入美国的商品征收高额关税的 全面贸易政策将通过提高价格给消费者带来沉重打击。高盛经济学家预计，最终约70%的关税直接成本将通过价格上涨转嫁给消费者。 美国是一个服务业占比较大的经济体，尤其是在夏季，人们的支出更多地用于旅游、娱乐和休闲。然而，一些商品价格已经上涨，企业警告称未来还会进一 步上涨，尤其是在冬季由于季节性消费需求上涨的时候。富国银行预计，今年晚些时候整体CPI可能达到2.9%的峰值（部分原因是服务业进一步的通货紧缩 效应）。 可以肯定的是，美联储内部对于何时降低借贷成本的分歧日益加大，官员们对于今年剩余时间内应该降息多少次意见不一。美联储去年降息1个百分点，但 自去年12月以来一直暂停降息，委员会中 ...

今日黄金价格震荡，铂金价格继续保持下跌。周生生黄金昨日铂金饰品价格跌了9元/克，今日继续下跌 4元/克，报价556元/克，还是处于一个高位。如果还想了解其他品牌铂金报价？欢迎留言告诉我们！我 们将及时汇总更新，帮您掌握最新行情。 今日的黄金回收价微涨0.3元/克。同时各品牌回收差价很大，小金大致整理了几个，详见下表，数据仅 供参考： | | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览（2025年7月15日） | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 764.70 | 元/克 | | 菜百黄金 | 770.10 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 768.80 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 772.20 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 777.70 | 元/克 | 7月15日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价整体持稳，部分金店金价出现转跌。其中，周生生黄金 下跌5元/克，报1007元/克，比最高价金店低了1元/克。上海中国黄金稳定发挥，继续报价969元/克。今 日最高与最低金店间价差缩小至38元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格 ...

金十数据7月15日讯，据外媒分析报道，6月CPI报告将显著影响市场对美联储下一步政策的预期。目前 市场预期，美联储在10月降息的可能性更大。如果数据高于预期，即使远高于预期，美联储也会等到10 月降息，但如果数据比预期温和，那么美联储预计在7月维持利率不变，9月降息。总之，在货币政策 上，6月CPI报告将让人看清，特朗普和鲍威尔谁才是正确的。 美国CPI前瞻：数据好于/低于预期对货币政策的影响 ...

近期，多数美联储官员认为本月底将维持联邦基金目标利率区间在4.25%至4.5%不变。6月会议上，美联储官员预 计今年晚些时候可能降息两次，投资者则普遍预计9月会议将开启降息。不过，也有少数官员主张更早降息，认为 特朗普政府不断变化的进口关税政策对物价的影响可忽略不计。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒上周就表示，货币政 策可能过于紧缩，可考虑7月降息，且强调其利率观点与政治无关。 尽管特朗普一直向美联储施压要求尽快降息，甚至曾批评鲍威尔工作"糟糕"，但近日在被问及是否会解雇鲍威尔 时，特朗普称无相关计划。美联储官员则始终专注于经济数据本身。 哈马克称，当前利率已非常接近中性利率水平，经济展现出韧性且运行良好。在她看来，除非劳动力市场出现明 显疲软，否则降息缺乏依据。目前通胀率虽从疫情严重时超7%降至3%以下，但持续在该区间徘徊，未达美联储 2%的目标，这是暂不考虑降息的主因。她强调，需等待已出台新政策对通胀的影响进一步明晰。 对于7月29日至30日举行的FOMC会议，哈马克秉持开放态度，表示将依据经济数据和讨论方向做决策。但她明确 指出，就业方面已达成目标，通胀却未达标，因此有必要维持限制性货币政策，以确保通胀降至2 ...

此前四个月，预测者均高估了CPI读数，他们如今也预计6月通胀将出现加速上涨。家具、玩具、娱乐 用品及汽车等受关税影响的品类涨价，被认为将终结通胀持续温和的局面。 根据经济学家的共识预测，美国6月整体CPI和核心CPI均将环比上涨0.3%，从同比增速来看，整体CPI 和核心CPI预计将分别录得2.7%和3%的涨幅，远高于美联储的目标水平。 关税推升通胀的首个真正信号？ AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 自特朗普在第二任期内发动关税战以来，经济学家一直警告，关税将推高美国通胀。周二北京时间 20:30公布的美国6月消费者价格报告（CPI）或将验证这一判断。 美联储官员与私营部门预测者普遍认为，随着企业开始将特朗普关税成本转嫁给消费者，今夏通胀将回 升。尽管许多企业最初通过提前囤货、牺牲利润率吸收部分成本来保护消费者，但如今部分企业已别无 选择。 法国外贸银行CIB Americas首席美国经济学家克里斯·霍奇（Chris Hodge）说："6月CPI是显示关税真正 开始产生明显影响的第一个指标。" 霍奇表示，"我关注的是汽车和服装，上个月这两个行业的价格涨幅都非常低，这与市场预期非常不 符 ...

美国"关税大棒"挥舞数月，市场高度关注其对通胀的实际影响，各大投行普遍预期关税成本将开始传导至消费价格。 北京时间周三晚上即将发布的美国6月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据将检验关税是否终于开始推高物价，并为美联储降息路径提供线索。 富国银行：通胀回升但不足以警告美联储 富国银行表示，数据可能显示通胀开始再次走强，但在现阶段还不足以让美联储官员感到警觉。 该行指出，"在劳动力市场疲软和服务业通胀进一步消退的情况下，关税推动的核心通胀上升看起来更像是一个颠簸而非飙升。" 高盛、德银等各大投行分析师普遍认为，关税影响将在下半年更加明显，但对于这种价格上涨是否构成持续通胀压力存在分歧。高盛和摩根大通 倾向认为其影响将持续一段时间并抬升通胀中枢；富国银行则表示，关税推动的核心通胀上升"更像是一个颠簸而非飙升"。 目前，货币市场对美联储7月30日降息的概率定价不足5%，但仍完全计入年底前两次25个基点的降息，与美联储自身预测保持一致。美联储内部 对利率前景态度谨慎，普遍预期关税效应将在年底前推高价格。部分官员暗示，关税引发的价格上涨若被判断为一次性冲击，并可能支持7月降 息。 高盛：关税影响将在下半年加速 高盛预期6月核心 ...

Group 1: Market Reactions - The US dollar index has fallen below 97, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, while the two-year and ten-year Treasury yields are at 3.88% and 4.35% respectively [1] - Global capital markets are experiencing a flight to safety, with gold prices rising by 1.92% to $3,337 per ounce, and Bitcoin surpassing $117,000, marking a new high [2] - Despite tariff concerns, the Nasdaq index has risen by 0.94%, reaching a historical high, with Nvidia's market capitalization exceeding $4 trillion [2] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Economic Indicators - The effective tariff rate for US companies has surged from 3% to 13%, with predictions it may reach 17% [3] - 73% of S&P 500 constituents are set to report earnings in July, with expectations for earnings per share growth of only 4% [3] - The June non-farm payroll added 147,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, but the growth is heavily reliant on government sectors, indicating structural weaknesses in the job market [4] Group 3: Trade and Tariff Impacts - President Trump's tariffs are causing significant market reactions, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 422 points following the announcement of new tariffs on Canada [6] - The US has issued tariff notices to 14 countries, with rates ranging from 25% to 40%, and has also targeted Brazil with a 50% tariff on all products [6] - A temporary reprieve occurred when Brazil announced countermeasures, coinciding with the US's decision to cancel additional tariffs on China [8] Group 4: Central Bank Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with differing opinions on interest rate cuts, as highlighted by the June meeting minutes showing a split among decision-makers [10] - Fed Governor Waller advocates for a rate cut, arguing that current rates are overly restrictive, while others warn of the long-term inflationary impacts of tariffs [10] - The political pressure on the Fed is intensifying, with former President Trump publicly criticizing Fed Chair Powell and suggesting potential replacements who would favor lower rates [12]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for both stock index futures and bond futures are "sideways" [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Wind All A index rising 0.17% and a turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.02%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.1%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.04%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.07%. The manufacturing sector was strong, while real estate and non-banking sectors pulled back. The market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization under the "anti-involution" policy, but the impact of this policy still depends on the scale and transmission mode of central fiscal policies. Overseas, the strong "non-farm" data has slightly slowed down the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and the boost to domestic small-cap indices has weakened significantly. The fundamentals of the index still depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the corporate profit situation in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared to 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A-share index is expected to move sideways in the short term [1] - The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures contracts all closed lower, with declines of 0.18%, 0.08%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 1197 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 both increased. In July, the central bank will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2000 billion yuan. In June, export growth and financial data exceeded expectations, and the bond market was under pressure due to the tightening of the capital market. However, with the support of monetary policy, there is no expectation of a significant tightening of the capital market, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. Therefore, the bond market is expected to move sideways in the short term [2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,747.4 | 2,751.6 | -4.2 | -0.15% | | IF | 3,985.8 | 3,993.4 | -7.6 | -0.19% | | IC | 6,008.4 | 6,023.0 | -14.6 | -0.24% | | IM | 6,302.2 | 6,319.8 | -17.6 | -0.28% | [4] Stock Indices | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,757.8 | 2,756.8 | 1.0 | 0.04% | | SSE 300 | 4,017.7 | 4,014.8 | 2.9 | 0.07% | | CSI 500 | 6,020.9 | 6,027.1 | -6.2 | -0.10% | | CSI 1000 | 6,462.3 | 6,461.1 | 1.2 | 0.02% | [4] Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.38 | 102.42 | -0.036 | -0.04% | | TF | 105.92 | 106.00 | -0.075 | -0.07% | | T | 108.73 | 108.83 | -0.1 | -0.09% | | TL | 120.29 | 120.61 | -0.32 | -0.27% | [4] Group 4: Market News - As of the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5] - China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 5.0% [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter-period spreads, cross-variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][17] Exchange Rates - The report includes charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][23] Group 6: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the current director of macro-financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures practice qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [29] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, focusing on macro fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [29]