国产大豆减仓价格小幅反弹。今日购销双向竞价交易专场全部成交。下周国产大豆市场有竞价采购专场，采购 顶价为4200元/吨,2024年国产大豆。短期东北产区天气总体对作物有利。进口大豆方面由于中美领导人通话, 给市场带来了乐观的预期，美豆表现偏强。中期海外大豆方面会受天气驱动，天气会成为影响价格的主要因 素，今年美国大豆平衡表同比偏紧，而从NOAA未来的天气预期看，7-8月份天气距平表现为降水少，温度高的特 点。国产大豆中期也逐步进入生长期,预计天气是驱动价格波动的主要因素。 【大豆&豆粕】 | | | | V V V & SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月06日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | ななな | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬油 | ☆☆ ...

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 邵翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 突然的通话，突然的缓和？ 周四晚习主席应约同美国总统特朗普通电话，开始和结果与5月初的瑞士会晤十分相似：开始的比较突然，而结果也比市场预 期得要好。整个谈话历时约1个小时半小时，与习主席和前总统拜登通话的最短时长持平，而今年1月中美领导人的通话时间可能不到1小时。 我们认为这次通话将成为一次重要的分水岭。 中美之间将正式开启贸易谈判，但依旧不会是接下来一个月内美国贸易谈判的重点；"以时 间换空间"，日本、韩国、印度、越南、甚至欧盟的谈判优先级还是会更高；而更重要的是中美竞争的形式将发生变化，从针尖麦芒式的关 税战，变为更加比拼"暗劲"的基本面和供应链的限制与反限制。同时值得注意的是，这次通话主要内容在经贸，而少有涉及地缘政治，这 是未来两国绕不过去的话题。 实际上，有了"前车之鉴"，本次中美领导人通话前的"信号"铺垫已经比较明显。一方面，除了美国官员如哈塞特、贝森特持续透露两国领 导人接触的想法；此外， ...

豆粕期货增仓强势突破3000关口，中美贸易改善是关键？背后还有多少上涨空间？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Group 1 - Silver futures surged over 4%, with焦煤 and glass rising over 3%, while synthetic rubber, logs, rapeseed meal, and industrial silicon increased over 2% [1] - The domestic silver price reached a new high, with spot silver surpassing $36 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [2] - The macroeconomic environment, including easing US-China trade tensions and poor US macro data, has led to increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, boosting demand for silver [2] Group 2 -焦煤 and glass showed significant rebounds, with both main contracts rising over 3%, driven by supply-side disturbances and rising coal prices [3] - Despite the rebound, the fundamentals for焦煤 and glass remain weak, with national float glass inventory reaching a new high of 69.754 million heavy boxes, up 3.09% from the previous week [3] - The overall sentiment in the market is expected to remain strong in the short term, influenced by production restrictions and coal price trends [3] Group 3 - Aluminum oxide futures experienced a sharp decline, with a nearly 3% drop by the end of the trading session, as domestic production increased due to the resumption of operations in previously shut-down plants [4] - The total inventory of aluminum oxide reached 3.805 million tons, ending a three-week trend of inventory reduction, indicating a shift in market sentiment [4] - The European shipping index fell over 4%, influenced by high prices and funding pressures, despite initial positive macroeconomic sentiment [4]

热轧卷板周度数据（20250606） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究员 涂伟华 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | | 本周值 | | 环比变化 | | | 上月末值 | | | 本月变化 | | 同期值 | | | | 同期变化 | | | | | 供给 | | | | | 周度产量 | | | | 328.75 | | 9.20 | | | 319.55 | | | 9.20 | | 325.52 | | | | 3.23 | | | | | | | | 高炉产能利用率（%） | | | | | 90.65 | | -0.04 | | | 90.69 | | | -0.04 | | 88.14 | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 6 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪回暖，钢矿震荡回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡回升，录得 0.57%日涨幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应持续收缩，但需求同样走弱，供需双弱局面基本面未见好 转，钢价继续承压运行，相对利好则是库存低位，现实端矛盾不大，预 期现实博弈下预计螺纹价格延续低位震荡运行态势，重点关注需求表现 情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.55%日涨幅，量稳仓增。目前来 看，热卷供应持续回升，而需求弱稳运行，供强需弱局面下热卷基本面 有所走弱，库存开始增加，热卷继续承压，相对利好则是中美贸易风险 暂缓，市场情绪回暖，短期乐观情绪主导下预计热卷价格震荡企稳，关 注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价震荡走高，录得 0.86%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶 段，铁矿石供需格局变化不大，需求维持高位但存走弱预期，利好效应 不强，相反财年末矿商发运积极，供应压力偏大，供强需弱局面矿石基 本面将走弱，矿价承压运行，相对利好则是期价深度贴水，且市场情绪 回暖，修贴水逻辑支撑下下行阻力较大， ...

目的就是为了增加自己的谈判筹码，好让中国放开管制的稀土，奈何中国始终不松口。 没成想，特朗普政府不想着如何和中国改善关系，反而在6月4日全面暂停12国公民进入美国，变相将盟 友推开。 前言 关税休战至今，特朗普政府依旧小动作不断，前一秒还在指责中国违反协议内容，下一秒自己却宣布拒 绝对华出口乙烷。 为何特朗普在关键时刻不去寻找盟友，反而将他们一脚踢开？美国对中国的管制真就一点办法没有吗？ 中美关税 大多数人聊贸易，会想到钢铁、汽车、芯片，可很少有人意识到，美国真正的痛点之一，便是深埋在土 壤里的稀土。 这东西不起眼，却是现代工业和国防的骨架。2025年5月出炉的一份国防报告，估计让华盛顿不少人倒 吸一口凉气。报告说得清楚，美国七成多军用设备，从战舰到最牛的F-35，关键材料都得指望某个特定 国家的稀土供应。 这不是可有可无的小零件，隐形战机得靠它做涂层，雷达离不开它，就连飞机引擎里抵抗高温的隔热 层，也是它的功劳。卡住这口稀土供应，等于是用一把手术刀，直接捅到了美国军工产业的心脏。它不 像炸弹那样引人注目，却能带来缓慢而致命的损害。 更让人捏把汗的是，全球重稀土市场，几乎全被那个国家攥在手里，份额高达99%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Tokyo stock market rebounded due to expectations of progress in trade negotiations between China and the United States following a phone call between the two leaders on June 5 [1] - The Nikkei 225 index rose by 187.12 points, closing at 37,741.61 points, with a gain of 0.50%, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index increased by 12.86 points, closing at 2,769.33 points, with a gain of 0.47% [1] - The market sentiment was supported by the confirmation of a second round of ministerial talks on tariffs and an agreement on mutual visits between the leaders of China and the U.S. [1] Group 2 - On June 6, all sectors in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, except for three (Aquaculture and Agriculture, Glass and Ceramics Products, and Fiber Products), experienced gains, with steel, construction, and machinery sectors leading the increases [2] - The weakening of the yen against the dollar during the trading hours also provided support to the stock market [1] - Despite the overall positive movement, the Tokyo stock market showed limited enthusiasm for aggressive buying due to weak U.S. employment data released on June 5, which led to declines in major U.S. stock indices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose 0.61% to $9,707.5/ton, SHFE copper up 0.58% to 78,570 yuan/ton. US trade deficit in April narrowed 55.5%, but jobless claims rose. LME copper stocks fell, Comex increased, and SHFE declined. Demand slowed due to the off - season. Sino - US trade conflict eased, and LME de - stocking supported prices. Copper prices face a directional choice, with resistance at 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina trended weakly, AO2509 down 1.17% to 2,953 yuan/ton. Shanghai aluminum was strong, AL2507 up 0.1% to 20,075 yuan/ton. Spot alumina prices fell, and upstream costs eased. Alumina production resumed, and the supply shortage improved. Aluminum demand had structural resilience, and the US tariff hike provided short - term support [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.75% to $15,445/ton, Shanghai nickel up 0.28% to 122,060 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE stocks decreased. Nickel ore prices were stable. Stainless - steel demand was weak, and new - energy demand was also sluggish. The market was in a short - term oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On June 5, 2025, the price of flat - water copper dropped 85 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased 55 yuan/ton. LME stocks fell 3,350 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased 246 tons, and social inventory increased 1.4 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead rose 70 yuan/ton, and LME stocks increased 1,100 tons, while the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased 1,928 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On June 5, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai quotes declined. LME stocks fell 2,025 tons, and the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased 16,856 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On June 5, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel dropped 375 yuan/ton. LME stocks decreased 900 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell 48 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price dropped 0.2%, LME stocks increased 875 tons, and social inventory decreased 0.09 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price rose 1.5%, LME stocks decreased 160 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory decreased 338 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [6][7][9]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][47]. 3.3 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: Master of Science, Director of Non - ferrous Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, Senior Precious Metals Researcher, Intermediate Gold Investment Analyst, Excellent Metal Analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Best Industrial Futures Analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. With over a decade of commodity research experience, he has published many articles and been interviewed by multiple media. His team won industry awards [50]. - **Wang Heng**: Master of Finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, Non - ferrous Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - **Zhu Xi**: Master of Science from the University of Warwick, UK, Non - ferrous Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won is expected to strengthen due to optimistic trade sentiments amid easing US-China trade tensions [1] Group 1 - DBS Bank analyst Chang Wei Liang indicates that the results of the South Korean presidential election may lead to strong fiscal support measures in the future [1] - The USD/KRW exchange rate is projected to weaken, potentially approaching 1350.00 [1]