Good afternoon. Um, my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our achieving our dualmandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Although some important federal government data have been delayed due to the shutdown, the public and private sector data that have remained available suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in September.Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling and inflat ...

The central bank signaled it has emptied its toolbox to help an economy hurting from the trade row with the U.S. ...

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Oct. 29, 2025: Stocks and Bonds Take a Hit Last Updated: 4 hours ago Josh Schafer Stocks quickly dipped on Wednesday afternoon as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said officials had "strongly differing views about how to proceed" with monetary policy in December. "A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it," Powell said. The S&P 500 fell nearly 0.4% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 0.3%. The Nasdaq C ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, with real GDP growth at 1.6% in the first half of 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, indicating potential underlying issues despite positive top-line numbers [3] - Unemployment rose to 4.3% in August, the highest since 2021, with nearly 1 million layoffs reported through September, a 55% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Inflation has increased by 3% year over year as of September, up from 2.3% in April, largely influenced by tariffs affecting corporate supply chains [1] - Companies are reporting a decline in visits from lower-income customers, with McDonald's and O'Reilly Auto Parts noting reduced spending on dining and auto repairs, respectively [6] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have recently experienced volatility, dropping 3.5% after a significant 6% decline on October 21, with prices falling below $4,000 per ounce, raising concerns among investors [5] - Bank of America has revised its gold forecast, predicting a bearish target of $3,800 per ounce for Q4 2025, but sees potential for prices to rise to $5,000 per ounce in 2026 due to structural drivers remaining in place [11][16] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that long-term holders of gold will need to continue supporting demand through exchange-traded funds, while central banks are expected to diversify away from the U.S. Dollar [4] - Historical analysis indicates that adding a 5% gold allocation to traditional investment portfolios could yield higher returns, suggesting a shift towards a 60:20:20 portfolio structure [17]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has approved its second consecutive interest rate cut, lowering the benchmark overnight borrowing rate to a range of 3.75%-4%, despite limited visibility on the economy due to a government shutdown [2][3] Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 10-2 to implement the rate cut, with dissenting opinions regarding the pace of the cut [2][3] - The decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) will take effect on December 1, 2025, marking a shift in the Fed's monetary policy approach [2][7] Economic Indicators - The Fed acknowledged uncertainty in economic conditions due to the suspension of key data collection, including nonfarm payrolls and retail sales [4] - Available indicators suggest moderate economic expansion, with job gains slowing and the unemployment rate remaining low [5][6] - Inflation remains elevated at an annual rate of 3%, influenced by higher energy costs and tariffs [6] Labor Market Concerns - The Fed expressed concerns over rising downside risks to employment, noting a flattening pace of hiring despite contained layoffs [6][7] - The balance between full employment and stable prices is becoming increasingly challenging for policymakers [7] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet, which expanded from over $4 trillion to nearly $9 trillion during the Covid crisis, will not return to pre-pandemic levels [10] - The end of QT has resulted in a reduction of approximately $2.3 trillion from the Fed's portfolio of Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities [8][10] Market Reactions - Markets had anticipated the end of QT either in October or by year-end, with major averages experiencing volatility but reaching record highs, particularly in Big Tech stocks [11][12] - Historical trends indicate that markets tend to rise following Fed rate cuts, although this could lead to higher inflation risks [12]

7 hours ago Fed Meeting Today: Interest Rates, Quantitative Tightening, Powell Speech, and More Why the Fed May Stop Shrinking Its Balance Sheet Sooner Than Expected Last Updated: CONCLUDED Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the Fed could soon end its quantitative tightening program, the process of steadily shrinking its balance sheet. Now, some analysts think it could stop as soon as today. By Nicole Goodkind The balance sheet is central to how the Fed controls monetary pol ...

Jerome Powell at the Federal Reserve Board open meeting in Washington, DC, on Oct. 24. Treasuries edged lower ahead of a widely expected interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve with traders focused on comments by Chair Jerome Powell for clues on the central bank’s next move. Yields on 10-year notes rose two basis points to 3.99% after falling the previous two sessions, while monetary policy-sensitive two-year notes held steady around 3.49% Wednesday morning. Most Read from Bloomberg Traders have fully ...

Ever since the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, a key headwind that has stymied multiple administrations is inflation. Sure, the economy has been able to bounce back from the worst of the crisis, but the response wasn't free of consequence. Like a calculated gambit in chess, policymakers essentially sacrificed materiel for positional gain.Based on the latest developments, the gamble may have paid off.According to the latest CPI report, price pressures edged up in September but at a slower-than-expected ...

No one will be surprised if (when?) the Federal Reserve announces an interest-rate cut today. Traders put the odds of a 0.25% reduction at 99.9%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. It’s the most straightforward call the central bank will make all year. The next one won’t be so easy, so all eyes will be on any hint to the Fed’s plans for December, when the monetary policy committee holds its next meeting. SUBSCRIBE:  Receive more of our free The Daily Upside newsletter. READ ALSO: Wall Street GOAT: Nv ...

Core Insights - Australia's inflation accelerated in Q3, with consumer prices rising 3.2% year-over-year, the fastest pace in over a year, surpassing the 2.1% increase in Q2 and the 3% forecast by economists [1][2] Inflation Trends - The inflation rate has exceeded the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target band of 2%-3% for the first time since Q2 2024, highlighting the challenges faced by policymakers in managing persistent price pressures [2] - RBA Governor Michelle Bullock noted that inflation in housing and market services was higher than expected, although it does not indicate runaway inflation [3] Economic Performance - Australia's economy grew by 1.8% year-over-year in Q2, marking the fastest growth since September 2023, outperforming the 1.6% expected by economists and the 1.3% seen in the previous quarter [4]