>> Welcome back to Squawk Box. The Federal Reserve, holding its large bank capital conference today focused on regulatory and oversight reform. Leslie Picker joins us with Federal Reserve vice chair of supervision Michelle Bowman.Good morning Leslie. >> Hi. Good morning Andrew.Thank you. And Mickey, thank you very much for being here. It's a big day for you.Just six weeks into the role. You've moved very quickly with a slew of proposed deregulatory actions. And the level of capitalization at the banks is ki ...

It is time now for money, power, politics. And the Trump administration's Federal Reserve pressure campaign is heating up. Last week, if you recall, the administration latched on to the Fed headquarters renovations to justify potentially firing Chairman Jay Powell.But today, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson said a review of the central bank could go well beyond that. Watch this. What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful.Has the organization suc ...

This is a story about an invisible hand guiding the economy. No, not the invisible hand of self-interest that Adam Smith wrote about in the Wealth of Nations. This invisible hand is much more modern.It's that artificial intelligence we keep hearing so much about. Our special contributor, Larry Summers, is a macro economist who also sits on the board of Open Air. Who better to ask what I could mean for Adam Smith's economy.My guess is that this is going to raise the neutral rate of interest over time, both b ...

You know what it's like being inside the Fed. You understand the independence of the Fed. But what have you made of this scenario as somebody that's now left the Fed behind and works principally as a private markets investor.Yeah, look, I think the most direct relationship between Fed policy and technology investing and venture capital investing is the path of interest rates. And in particular, what that means is, you know, interest rates have such a huge impact on valuations and returns in the private mark ...

Labor Market Analysis - The private sector's employment growth is weaker than perceived, with a significant portion of recent job growth occurring in the public sector [1] - Underlying private sector data indicates a stagnant labor market, making it susceptible to economic shifts [4] - Firms are hesitant to hire, even with strong earnings, impacting the labor market [11] - Immigration is not identified as a primary cause of labor market issues, as unemployment rates for new college graduates remain high [11] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - A potential July rate cut is under consideration, with the understanding that delaying until September may not be significantly different [13][22] - Dissent within the FOMC is viewed as healthy for policy debate and decision-making [16][17] - The Federal Reserve aims to act proactively, considering long and variable lags in monetary policy [24] Tariffs and Inflation - Economic theory suggests that one-time tariffs result in a one-time price effect, not persistent inflation, unless amplified by other mechanisms [26] - A rule of thumb suggests that a 10% tariff is typically absorbed in thirds by suppliers, firms, and consumers, resulting in a 0.3% impact on the inflation rate for a few months [29] - Continuous waves of increasing tariffs pose a greater risk to inflation than a single, uniform tariff [35] - Market-based inflation expectations are closely monitored, with less emphasis on consumer surveys, to gauge the impact of tariffs and other factors [43]

He's a knucklehead. I call him too late. He's always too late. He's a terrible Fed cheer.I was surprised he was appointed. I was surprised, frankly, that Biden put him in, but he's not good for our country. President Trump wants Jerome Powell out of the Federal Reserve. Now, the law states that the president can only fire the Federal Reserve chair for cause.That's been interpreted by the Supreme Court as inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance. So, the White House is looking for other ways to get him ...

I AM FOCUSING ON THE 10-YEAR. AS WE SEE INFLATION COME DOWN, I THINK THE WHOLE CURVE WILL SHIFT DOWN. >> DON'T MISS OPEN INTEREST ALIVE WEEKDAYS. >> POSITIONING CONTINUES TO CHASE HIGHER. THAT HAS BEEN THE KEY DRIVER OF THE MARKET RALLY AND THE REASON WHY EQUITIES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEFY ALL ODDS. >> THE MOMENTUM IS COMING FROM DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. TO TURN THE TIDE WHILE THE WHOLE ECONOMY BENEFITS? I THINK THE JURY IS STILL OUT. >> I THINK IT IS BROADENING THIS YEAR. EQUITIES ARE A GREAT ASSET TO CAPTURE TH ...

Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - The speaker suggests the US economy is at a transformational moment and could be entering a golden age with the right policies [5][6] - The speaker expresses concern that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is using outdated models and governance, potentially hindering recognition of a productivity boom [7] - The speaker advocates for "regime change" at the Fed, criticizing the current monetary policy approach and lack of credibility [13] - The speaker points out the Fed's inconsistent actions, such as emergency rate cuts followed by a hawkish stance, questioning the institution's stability [14] - The speaker emphasizes the need for more robust discussion and diverse ideas within the Fed, rather than groupthink based on outdated models [18] - The speaker proposes a new theory of inflation, suggesting it's driven by excessive government spending and money printing, which is not adequately considered by the Fed [19] - The speaker stresses the importance of independent operation in monetary policy, but criticizes the Fed for venturing into areas outside its expertise, such as climate change and diversity, equity, and inclusion [22][23] - The speaker accuses the Fed of blaming external factors like Vladimir Putin and pandemic supply chains for inflation, rather than taking responsibility for its own policy choices [26][27] Leadership & Independence - The speaker believes the next Fed chairman should be independent and act according to what they believe is right, regardless of White House advice [21] - The speaker references Paul Volcker's era as an example of a Fed chairman who brought about regime change and reestablished credibility [17]

Federal Reserve Policy & Presidential Influence - The President desires lower interest rates and expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to align with his objectives, despite potential conflicts with sound monetary policy [1][2] - The President might replace the Fed chair with a more dovish nominee to achieve his desired policy outcomes [2] - A Fed that prioritizes the President's agenda over its independence could negatively impact the dollar's value due to concerns about biased policy and currency debasement [3] Potential Treasury Actions - The President may instruct the Treasury to intervene in the bond market to suppress long-term yields [4] - The Treasury could reduce long-term bond issuance by 25%, which would have a similar impact to the Fed's largest monthly quantitative easing (QE) program [5] - Decreasing bond supply could keep yields low, but might also lead to inflation and accelerated economic growth [7] Market Implications - Actions to control bond yields could lead to rallies in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, potentially weakening the dollar [6] - Starving the market for duration through reduced bond supply could maintain low yields if demand for Treasury bonds remains strong [7]

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the stability of the U.S financial system [2][3][6] - Political interference with the Fed, such as attempts to fire the chair, could destabilize markets and damage U.S credibility [2][4][6] - The appointment of a Fed chair should prioritize independence and economic expertise over loyalty to the president [5][9][10] - The market reacted negatively when there were indications of political interference with the Fed [2][3] Cryptocurrency Regulation - Strong crypto regulation is needed, but the proposed Stablecoin bill and Clarity Act are considered weak and industry-written [12] - Concerns exist that current crypto legislation lacks sufficient safeguards for consumer protection and could be exploited by illicit actors [13] - The Clarity Act contains a provision that could allow companies to opt out of SEC regulation by digitizing themselves on the blockchain, potentially harming the New York Stock Exchange [13][14][15] Government Spending & Appropriations - Republicans are attempting to retract previously agreed-upon budget allocations, specifically targeting U.S aid programs [16][17] - Proposed cuts to U.S aid include reductions in food aid and assistance for countries dealing with AIDS epidemics [17] - These cuts are viewed as detrimental to global health and potentially harmful to U.S interests [18]