Economic Outlook - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin indicated a "delicate balance" in monetary policy due to rising unemployment and elevated inflation [1] - Fed Governor Stephen Miran suggested that interest rates need to be lowered by more than a percentage point this year, claiming current monetary policy is "holding the economy back" [1] - The U.S. December S&P Global services PMI was revised down to 52.5 from 52.9 [1] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street's major indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Dow reaching record highs [2] - Data storage companies saw significant gains, with Sandisk (SNDK) rising over 27% and Western Digital (WDC) climbing more than 16% [2] - Microchip Technology (MCHP) surged over 11% after raising its Q3 revenue guidance [2] - OneStream (OS) soared over 28% following a buyout agreement with Hg Capital for approximately $6.4 billion [2] - American International Group (AIG) fell more than 7% after announcing CEO Peter Zaffino's retirement [2] Oil Market - Oil prices declined after President Trump announced that Venezuela would turn over 30 million to 50 million barrels of crude to the U.S., contributing to an oversupplied market [3] Futures and Economic Data - March S&P 500 E-Mini futures were trending down 0.12% ahead of U.S. jobs data [4] - U.S. rate futures indicated an 83.9% chance of no rate change and a 16.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the January FOMC meeting [4] Employment Reports - The U.S. ADP private payrolls report is anticipated, with economists forecasting a December Nonfarm Employment Change of 49K, compared to November's -32K [5] - The November JOLTs Job Openings are expected to be 7.610 million, slightly down from October's 7.670 million [5] Manufacturing and Services Data - The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 52.2 for December, down from the previous value of 52.6 [6] - Factory Orders data for October is anticipated to drop 1.1% month-over-month, following a 0.2% rise in September [6] Crude Oil Inventories - The EIA's weekly crude oil inventories report is expected to show a decrease of 1.2 million barrels, compared to last week's decrease of 1.9 million barrels [7] Earnings Reports - Companies such as Constellation Brands (STZ), Jefferies Financial (JEF), and Applied Digital (APLD) are set to report quarterly figures [8] European Market Insights - The Euro Stoxx 50 Index fell 0.12% as energy stocks declined following a drop in oil prices [9] - Eurozone's annual inflation rate fell to the European Central Bank's target in December, suggesting stable monetary policy [10] - Germany's unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.3% in December, with jobless numbers slightly increasing [10] Asian Market Developments - China's Shanghai Composite Index closed slightly higher, supported by increased trading volumes [13] - Semiconductor stocks outperformed, with analysts predicting significant gains for the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index in 2026 [13] - Japan's Nikkei 225 Index closed lower as investors took profits after a recent rally [14]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed up +0.62%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average up +0.99%, and the Nasdaq 100 up +0.94% on Tuesday [1] - Stock indexes rallied, with the S&P 500 and Dow posting record highs, and the Nasdaq 100 reaching a 1-week high [2] Sector Performance - Strength in chipmakers and data storage companies contributed to the broader market gains [2] - Mining stocks rallied as copper prices reached a new all-time high, driven by expectations of potential tariffs on refined copper by the Trump administration [2] Economic Indicators - US copper imports in December reached the highest level since July [2] - The December S&P services PMI was revised downward by -0.4 to 52.5 from the previously reported 52.9, indicating a slight contraction in services [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin expressed a slightly hawkish outlook, anticipating tax cuts and deregulation to boost growth, while noting a delicate balance in monetary policy due to rising unemployment and high inflation [5] - Fed Governor Stephen Miran provided a dovish perspective, suggesting that over 100 basis points of rate cuts may be justified this year [5] Upcoming Economic Data - The market is focused on upcoming US economic news, including expected increases in ADP employment change (+48,000) and JOLTS job openings (+9,000 to 7.679 million) [5] - The December nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +59,000, with the unemployment rate anticipated to slip by -0.1 to 4.5% [5]

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) rose by +0.30% but remained below Monday's 3.5-week high, supported by higher T-note yields and comments from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin regarding expected tax cuts and deregulation to boost growth this year [1] - The US December S&P services PMI was revised downward by -0.4 to 52.5 from the previously reported 52.9, indicating a slight weakening in service sector activity [3] - The markets are currently pricing in an 18% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28, reflecting market expectations for monetary policy adjustments [4] Group 2: Fed Policy and Interest Rates - Fed Governor Stephen Miran indicated that Fed policy is "clearly restrictive" and suggested that more than 100 basis points of rate cuts are justified this year, highlighting a potential shift in monetary policy [4] - The dollar is under pressure as the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by about -50 basis points in 2026, contrasting with expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise rates by +25 basis points in the same year [5] - Concerns about President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair, likely to be National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, are contributing to bearish sentiment for the dollar [6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The dollar retains some safe-haven support due to escalating geopolitical risks in Venezuela, particularly following the US capturing Venezuelan President Maduro and President Trump's comments about temporarily "running" Venezuela [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco's research indicates that historically, high tariffs have led to lower inflation, challenging conventional economic theories [2][4]. - The average U.S. tariff rate is projected to increase by 15% in 2025, marking the largest rise in the modern era, which raises concerns about its impact on unemployment and inflation [3]. - The researchers propose that tariff shocks may create economic uncertainty, which depresses consumer and investor confidence, ultimately putting downward pressure on inflation [5]. Group 2 - Middle market companies are reportedly entering "defensive mode" due to the pressures from tariffs and delayed economic data, leading to high-stakes decision-making [7]. - Nearly 50% of product leaders in goods-producing companies have indicated that tariffs are negatively affecting their financial performance, highlighting the rapid shift of trade policy from a theoretical risk to a tangible operational issue [8]. - The cancellation of the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and delayed retail sales reports have left firms without reliable indicators of demand or economic momentum, exacerbating the uncertainty in the market [9].

Market Overview - Major U.S. index futures indicate a slightly lower open, with stocks likely to see further downside after three consecutive days of modest declines [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq is up by 21% for 2025, S&P 500 is up by 17%, and Dow is up by 13% [2] - Trading activity is subdued as traders prepare for New Year's Eve celebrations [2] Trading Activity - On Tuesday, major averages showed a lack of direction, ending modestly lower: Dow down 94.87 points (0.2%) to 48,367.06, Nasdaq down 55.27 points (0.2%) to 23,419.08, and S&P 500 down 9.50 points (0.1%) to 6,896.24 [3] - Biotechnology stocks fell significantly, with the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index down by 1.5% [6] - Telecom stocks showed strength, driving the NYSE Arca North American Telecom Index up by 1.1% [7] Federal Reserve Insights - Traders were initially hesitant to make significant moves ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes [4] - The minutes revealed mixed views on the outlook for interest rates, with some participants suggesting further rate cuts if inflation declines, while others felt rates should remain unchanged for some time [5] Commodity and Currency Markets - Crude oil futures increased by $0.57 to $58.52 per barrel after a previous decline [8] - Gold is trading at $4,339.30, down $47 from the previous session [8] - The U.S. dollar is trading at 156.76 yen, up from 156.39 yen [8] Asian Market Performance - Major Asian stock markets closed mixed, with Japan and South Korea markets closed [9] - China's Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.1% to 3,968.84, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.6% [10] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong slid 0.9% to 25,606.37 [11] European Market Performance - European stocks moved modestly lower, with the French CAC 40 Index down by 0.2% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index down by 0.1% [14] - Notable declines included Stellantis down 1.7% and several other companies losing between 0.8% to 1.2% [15] U.S. Economic News - First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly dipped to 199,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week [17][18] - The four-week moving average inched up to 218,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average [18]

Core Insights - Brazil is challenging the assumption that cryptocurrencies thrive only when traditional financial systems fail, as evidenced by its high Selic rate of 15% and resilient credit markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Macroeconomic Context - The IMF's recent report indicates that Brazil's credit expansion is not a policy failure, with effective monetary transmission despite high interest rates [2][3] - Bank lending in Brazil increased by 11.5% in 2024, and corporate bond issuance surged by 30%, which typically would reduce interest in alternative financial assets like crypto [3][4] Group 2: Crypto Adoption Trends - Despite the high interest rates, Brazil's crypto activity rose by 43% year-over-year in 2025, indicating a disconnect between traditional macroeconomic narratives and actual crypto adoption [4] - The IMF emphasizes that Brazil's central bank has effectively managed monetary policy, contributing to strong income growth, low unemployment, and rapid fintech expansion, which sustain credit demand [5] Group 3: Future Outlook - Although policy tightening has affected lending rates and credit growth is beginning to slow, inflation expectations are being actively managed [6]

Market Overview - The three major indices are on a four-session winning streak, with expectations for a potential Santa Claus rally starting in the last five trading days of the year [1][2] - There is a historical concern as the last two years did not see a Santa Claus rally, and this year could break that trend [2] Trading Conditions - The S&P 500 is expected to have a trading range of about 30 to 35 points, with current volatility at approximately 13.7% [3] - A more defensive rotation is observed in the market, with interest rate-sensitive stocks, consumer staples, real estate, and financials leading the way [5] Economic Data - Mortgage applications have decreased by 5% week-over-week, with the 30-year mortgage rate hovering around 6.3% [7][12] - Jobless claims came in at 214,000, better than the expected 224,000, indicating a mixed picture in the jobs market with an unemployment rate of 4.6% [8][10] - The four-week moving average for initial claims is around 216,000 jobs, reflecting some normalization after previous outlier reports [11] Inflation and GDP - Recent economic data has exceeded expectations, contributing to equity gains, with GDP numbers coming in 1% above forecasts [13] - CPI inflation is reported at 2.7% on the headline and 2.6% on core, suggesting that inflation may not be a significant concern for the Fed [21] Commodity Market - Gold and silver have reached all-time highs, indicating a shift towards commodity trading amid geopolitical risks and central bank policies [22][23] - The gold-silver ratio suggests that gold is currently outperforming silver, which may indicate positive market sentiment and economic growth [24][25] Future Outlook - There are expectations for potential fiscal policies around housing in 2026, especially in an election year, which could influence market dynamics [17] - The market is currently pricing in two Fed rate cuts, with the first not expected until June, but there is uncertainty about how the market will react if these cuts are backed out [20]

Economic Outlook - The S&P 500 Index is unchanged, while the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by 0.09% and the Nasdaq 100 Index is down by 0.06% [1] - US Q3 real GDP rose by 4.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), significantly exceeding market expectations of 3.3% [2] - The Conference Board's December US consumer confidence index dropped by 3.8 points to 89.1, below market expectations of 91.0 [2] Labor Market - US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by 10,000 to 214,000, better than expectations of 224,000, indicating a stronger labor market [3] - Continuing claims rose by 38,000 to 1.923 million, which was higher than expectations of 1.900 million, suggesting some weakness in the labor market [3] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) issued a cautious statement, focusing on long-term stability and indicating no immediate interest rate cuts despite economic challenges [4] Market Trends - Seasonal factors are bullish for stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 75% of the time in the last two weeks of December, averaging a 1.3% increase [5] - The markets are pricing in a 13% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC's next meeting on January 27-28 [5] Interest Rates - March 10-year T-notes are up 2.5 ticks, with the 10-year T-note yield down by 0.8 basis points at 4.155% [6] - T-note prices are slightly higher despite a supply overhang, as the Treasury is selling $44 billion of 7-year T-notes [6]

The roaring 20s are alive and well. That according to our next guest, Ed Yard Denny. He's the president of Yard Denny Research.He joins us now. It's good to see you. So, we were just a little delayed on the roaring 20s, maybe thanks to co and here we are about to regroup.>> Well, I think we've been doing pretty well since uh since the beginning of the of the decade. I mean, think of all the uh shocks that the economy has been hit by the pandemic, the lockdowns for two months. Uh then the social distancing, ...

Economic Outlook - The current economic environment is causing anxiety regarding inflation, labor market conditions, and future Federal Reserve leadership [1] - The Federal Reserve is observing a slow but positive trend in inflation, suggesting that underlying inflation is closer to the Fed's target than previously thought [2][3] Inflation Measurement - There are biases in the current inflation measurement process, particularly related to housing costs, which may overstate inflation [4][6] - Market rent inflation has been stable at around 1% for the past couple of years, indicating that the actual inflation measurement may not reflect current market conditions [7][8] - Adjustments to inflation measurement should exclude imputed prices from non-market transactions, which can distort inflation readings [10][15] Labor Market Concerns - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy should be forward-looking, considering the lag in the impact of interest rate changes on the economy [18][20] - Current labor market conditions are loosening, and if not addressed, could lead to significant issues by 2027 [27][28] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has not initiated a new round of quantitative easing; current asset purchases are for reserve management purposes [29] - Regulatory demands on banks have created a persistent need for reserves, which affects the Fed's balance sheet and lending capabilities [32][34]