Policymakers in the US and Canada will take the spotlight in coming days, with rate cuts likely while the rest of the G-7 stays on hold https://t.co/dGsKKRKna5 ...

So for more, let's bring in Barry Napp. He's director of research at Iron Science Macroeconomics. Uh Barry, love to get your read on the CPI number.Of course, one of the few data prints that we've been able to get, albeit, you know, delayed and guess sounds like the government had to pull some extra strings to get it to us, but uh 3% initially earlier on the show, we had Krishna Guha saying that's pretty benign, at least from a market perspective. the two um issues that I haven't heard discussed um over all ...

US September CPI (unadjusted YoY): 3% (exp. 3.1%, prev. 2.9%).US September CPI (SA MoM): 0.3% (exp. 0.4%, prev. 0.4%).US September Core CPI (unadjusted YoY): 3% (exp. 3.1%, prev. 3.1%).US September Core CPI (SA MoM): 0.2% (exp. 0.3%, prev. 0.3%).White House says no US inflation data likely next month. Analysts warn Fed’s December decision will be highly complex. ...

Gold just did the impossible. GLD, the gold ETF, outperforming SPY, the S&P 500 ETF. The GLD is outperforming since it launched in 2004.And it's mind-melting. That flies in the face of so much conventional wisdom. Now, here's the thing.Gold is a non-productive asset. It's not supposed to drive yield. It's not supposed to have earnings. It's not supposed to outperform productive assets like stocks.Warren Buffett, one of the best investors in the world, he hates gold. He's not a fan at all. He doesn't like th ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25 [20] - Economic return for Q3 was 8.1%, bringing the year-to-date economic return to 11.5% [20][21] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [22] - Average yields improved to 5.46% from 5.41% in the prior quarter, with net interest spread ex-PAA increasing to 1.5% [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter-over-quarter, with total growth of $7.8 billion [9] - Residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with average yields rising to 6.29% [11][22] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment [5] - Inflation remained elevated near 3%, with a modest impact from higher tariffs on goods inflation [6] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, generating a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [18] - Focus on maintaining high credit quality in residential credit and leveraging proprietary assets through the correspondent channel [15] - The company is positioned to benefit from expected Fed cuts and healthy fixed income demand [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the agency sector despite tighter spreads, citing improved fundamentals and technicals [26] - The outlook for the residential credit business is positive, with expectations for continued growth in the private label market [18] - Management remains cautious about taking on additional rate risk given current market uncertainties [56] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program [8] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased slightly due to lower mortgage rates, but cash flows remain stable [16] - The company has $7.4 billion in unencumbered assets, including $5.9 billion in cash and Agency MBS [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management indicated that agency investments remain attractive despite tighter spreads, with expectations for increased demand from banks and REITs [26][27] Question: MSR bulk supply and pricing - Management noted that bulk supply has increased from large participants, with stable pricing throughout the year [29] Question: Breakdown of agency returns - Management provided insights on the spread to swaps versus treasuries, indicating a blended yield of about 160 basis points [33] Question: Book value performance - Management reported a 1% increase in book value pre-dividend accrual, translating to a 1.5% to 2% economic return [35] Question: Prepayment protection in the OBX portfolio - Management highlighted that the OBX portfolio has shown slower prepayment speeds than anticipated, benefiting from prepayment penalties [82]

Mexico’s annual inflation slowed more than expected in the first half of October, likely giving policymakers’ room to extend their easing cycle at the central bank’s early November interest rate meeting. https://t.co/Vl7zpIqtxk ...

This is The Takeaway from today's Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with: What we're watching What we're reading Economic data releases and earnings The US economy has defied calls for a slowdown for two years — dodging a recession despite various tariff shocks, higher borrowing costs, and geopolitical turmoil. The reason why? Artificial intelligence. BNP Paribas chief US economist James Egelhof put it bluntly in a roundtable with reporters this week: “ ...

Swiss National Bank officials decided against an interest-rate cut last month, assessing their monetary stance to be stimulative enough to stoke inflation https://t.co/UzJ14YrDHQ ...

Bank Indonesia is changing tack in its bid to support the economy, signaling that monetary policy is failing to deliver https://t.co/xo0UzIgxwj ...

October 22, 2025 08:59 PM GMT Federal Reserve Monitor | North America Ahead of the October FOMC: Our Monetary Forecasts We participate in the NY Fed's Survey of Market Expectations, which collects expectations about monetary policy and the economy before each FOMC meeting. This note provides a snapshot of our responses to the survey. | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Idea | | October 22, 2025 08:59 PM GMT | | | | Federal Reserve Monitor North America | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC | | | | Michael T Gapen | | ...