Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the core variable affecting the prices of various commodities, leading to significant short - term price fluctuations and high uncertainty [1][2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends, with some being affected by supply - side factors, some by demand - side factors, and some by both [3][7][14]. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The US proposed a conflict - ending plan to Iran, but the negotiation was disrupted. The short - term oil price has large two - way fluctuation risks, and the long - term core variable is the smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the expectation of geopolitical easing, fuel oil prices followed the decline of crude oil. The supply gap of high - sulfur fuel oil cannot be fully hedged, and low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by supply reduction and high cracking spreads [20]. - **Asphalt**: Domestic refineries are worried about future imported raw materials, reducing asphalt supply. The fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the price will follow the oil price with limited downside [21]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals rebounded. Market sentiment fluctuates with news of the US - Iran war, and precious metals maintain high volatility in the short term [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices rebounded near the short - term moving average. Some overseas investment banks lowered the annual average copper price forecast. The copper price may get support at key positions during the peak season [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. The spot discounts in some regions decreased, and the inventory and spot market improved slightly. The 23,000 - yuan position is a key support [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rebounded with the non - ferrous metal sector, but there are concerns about tight liquidity. The domestic zinc market is in an oversupply situation, but the cost line provides support. The price is expected to enter a range - bound state [7]. - **Lead**: The lead market is in an oversupply state, with the price running weakly. There is support at 16,200 yuan/ton, but the import of low - cost lead affects the price [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and the market trading volume declined. The demand for stainless steel in the peak season was lower than expected. The market is mainly affected by policy and sentiment, with a weak and volatile trend [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated around the MA5 moving average. The fundamentals of tin itself have changed little. The price may seek support at 300,000 yuan and the medium - and long - term weekly K - line moving average [10]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium showed a strong and volatile trend. The overall inventory reduction speed slowed down, and the inventory structure changed. The lithium market is resistant to decline and is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures were weak. The demand was affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, and the price continued to decline. Although the medium - term trend is bearish, the short - term downward space is limited [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, with high social inventory. The silicon price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [13]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed a weak and volatile trend at night. The supply decreased, and the inventory declined. The export market is expected to be good. Caustic soda also showed a weak and volatile trend, with a decline in supply pressure [27]. - **PX & PTA**: If the US - Iran situation eases, the risk premium of PX and PTA will decline. The demand recovers slowly, and the industry load decreases [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load of ethylene glycol decreased, and the inventory declined slightly. The price fell with the decline of oil prices [29]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US - Iran relationship may ease. Brazilian soybean harvest and export data are important factors. The prices of soybeans and soybean meal are affected by multiple factors and have high uncertainty [34]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The demand in the peak season in March was good. The import quota was released, and the inventory decreased. The medium - term strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is bullish [40]. - **Sugar**: International attention is on the new - season Brazilian sugar production, which is expected to decline. Domestically, the sugar market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [41]. - **Apple**: Apple futures prices continued to decline. The trading focus is on the demand side. The poor quality and high price of Shandong apples led to weak demand and a decline in futures prices [42]. Others - **Stock Index**: A - shares rebounded with reduced volume. The futures index contracts rose, with IM leading the increase. The market is affected by geopolitical and liquidity factors. The medium - term configuration should be balanced, and the short - term strategy is to buy on dips for broad - based indexes [45]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose, while the 2 - year futures fell slightly. The long - term bonds may continue to fluctuate in the short term and have a rebound opportunity after over - decline [46].

Core Viewpoint - The WTO's report indicates that the ongoing Middle East conflict is likely to impact global trade through various channels, including rising oil prices, slowing GDP growth, and potential fertilizer supply shortages, which threaten food security in vulnerable economies [3][4]. Group 1: Global Trade Impact - If high energy prices persist for the remainder of the year, global GDP growth is expected to be revised down from a baseline forecast of 2.8% to 2.5% for 2026, with a rebound anticipated in 2027 [3][4]. - The WTO predicts a 0.5 percentage point downward adjustment in the growth rate of global goods trade for 2026, bringing it down to 1.4%, with a recovery to 2.8% in 2027 [3][4]. - The service trade growth rate is projected to decline from 4.8% to 4.1% under the influence of the conflict, with a subsequent increase to 5.2% in 2027 [8][12]. Group 2: Energy Price Assumptions - The WTO's adjusted forecast assumes that oil prices will remain at $90 per barrel and LNG prices at $16 per million British thermal units for the year [4][10]. - The report emphasizes that short-term fluctuations in energy prices are not the primary concern, and the current assumptions are deemed appropriate [9][10]. Group 3: Regional Trade Effects - In a high energy price scenario, Europe's goods export value is expected to shrink by 0.6%, compared to a 0.5% growth in the baseline scenario [12]. - The European industrial sector is particularly sensitive to high energy prices due to its reliance on natural gas imports, which could lead to significant production cuts [12][14]. - The report highlights that the conflict threatens key global shipping corridors, with a drastic reduction in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, impacting global transport services [14].

Core Insights - Energy prices in Inner Mongolia have shown stability in February, with coal and coke prices remaining unchanged, while natural gas prices experienced mixed trends [1] Group 1: Coal Prices - The average pithead price of thermal coal in Inner Mongolia for February was 364.27 RMB/ton, remaining flat month-on-month but increasing by 6.89% year-on-year [1] - The average pithead price of eastern lignite was 333.86 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month and up by 1.61% year-on-year [1] - The average pithead price of thermal coal in the Ordos region was 417.50 RMB/ton, stable month-on-month and rising by 15.27% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Coke Prices - The average price of coke in Inner Mongolia for February was 1316.75 RMB/ton, with no change month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 3.70% [1] Group 3: Natural Gas Prices - The average ex-factory price of domestic LNG (liquefied natural gas) in February was 3948.50 RMB/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.06% and a year-on-year decline of 12.76% [1] - The average retail price of LNG was 4393.75 RMB/ton, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.21% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.71% [1] - The average retail price of CNG (compressed natural gas) was 3.90 RMB/cubic meter, with a minor month-on-month decrease of 0.19% and a year-on-year decline of 1.75% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly focusing on the military actions involving Iran, Israel, and Turkey, and their implications for energy prices and market stability [1][5][6]. Group 1: Military Tensions - On March 13, a defense alert was triggered at the Incirlik Air Base in southeastern Turkey, which hosts U.S. military personnel and NATO missile defense systems [2][3]. - Turkey's Defense Ministry reported the successful interception of a ballistic missile launched from Iran that was heading towards Turkish airspace [3]. - Turkish President Erdogan emphasized the need for diplomatic efforts to address regional tensions and condemned any violations of Turkish airspace [3][4]. Group 2: Energy Market Impact - The ongoing military actions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to several major energy companies in the Middle East announcing production halts or reductions [1][5]. - Following a significant rise in oil prices, Brent crude oil futures surpassed $102 per barrel, reflecting market reactions to the geopolitical situation [1]. - U.S. energy executives have urged the government to conclude military actions against Iran to stabilize the energy market, although the U.S. military has not committed to providing naval escorts in the region [5][6].

Group 1 - The price of oil has risen to $94 per barrel despite the planned release of 400 million barrels onto the market [1] - Iran and its proxy forces continue to target ships in the Persian Gulf, indicating ongoing regional tensions [1][2] - The U.S. Navy's protection of ships in the region is currently not operational, with military assets focused on countering Iran's offensive capabilities [2][3] Group 2 - The impact of oil prices on the American economy has diminished over the decades, but it still significantly affects gasoline prices and input costs for various goods [3] - The shipping slowdown is affecting not only oil but also natural gas, fertilizers, and materials used in semiconductor manufacturing [4]

Inflation Data - February CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, aligning with expectations[1] - Core CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% month-on-month, maintaining a year-on-year rate of 2.5%[1] - Core goods inflation slightly accelerated, with a month-on-month increase of 0.08%[3] Energy and Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the Middle East situation has significantly raised global energy prices, which may affect U.S. inflation in March[1] - Energy prices increased by 4.36 percentage points to 1.10% month-on-month in February[3] - If oil prices remain high, it could limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates[1] Sector Analysis - Used car price declines narrowed, while clothing inflation accelerated, contributing to a slight increase in core goods inflation[1] - Core services inflation (excluding housing) decreased to 0.32% month-on-month, primarily due to a drop in airline service prices[3] - Housing inflation remained moderate, with a month-on-month increase of 0.23%[3] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remained stable at 34 basis points[1] - 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were largely unchanged at 3.61% and 4.17%, respectively[1] - The U.S. dollar index remained steady at 99.1, and S&P 500 futures showed little change[1]

Core Insights - The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3%, resulting in a year-over-year rate of 2.4%, with no change from January [1] - The core CPI rose by 0.2%, which is a slight decrease from January, maintaining a year-over-year rate of 2.5% [1] Inflation Context - Current inflation numbers do not raise immediate concerns, but the situation is evolving with geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding the conflict with Iran [2] - Energy prices have surged from the sixties to the eighties, with potential risks of reaching triple digits again, which could impact inflation metrics [3] Future Considerations - The main concern arises when rising energy prices affect core inflation, particularly through consumer products and agricultural inputs like fertilizer [4] - The current inflation readings may be skewed due to housing market dynamics and government shutdown impacts, suggesting that upcoming data may differ significantly [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decision by the United States to halt Israeli military actions against Iranian energy storage facilities, marking the first time the U.S. has restricted Israeli military operations in this context. The U.S. is concerned about potential backlash against its interests due to these actions [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. and Israeli Military Actions - The U.S. communicated to Israeli leadership and military officials the decision to stop attacks on Iranian energy facilities, citing concerns over unintended consequences [3]. - The Trump administration provided three main reasons for this halt: the potential for these actions to unify Iranian society rather than divide it, the need to preserve U.S. assets for future oil cooperation with Iran, and the risk of escalating conflict that could lead to Iranian retaliation against other Gulf nations [3]. Group 2: Impact on Energy Markets - U.S. officials expressed dissatisfaction with Israeli attacks on Iranian oil facilities, fearing that such actions could disrupt oil markets and further increase energy prices [5]. - The ongoing conflict in Iran has heightened risks in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a surge in international crude oil prices, which recently surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time in over three years [5]. - The average gasoline price in the U.S. has risen nearly 17% since the end of February, reflecting the impact of the conflict on domestic fuel costs [5].

Core Viewpoint - Iran has declared its complete capability to block the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that it will not allow any oil to pass through in favor of the United States and its allies [3]. Group 1 - The spokesperson for Iran's Armed Forces stated that the country will not permit even a single liter of oil to transit the Strait of Hormuz if it benefits the U.S. and its allies [3]. - The statement reflects Iran's strong stance against Western interference aimed at lowering global oil and energy prices, which it claims will ultimately fail [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn), and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the disk to rebound. In the medium - term, the demand expectation of glass remains weak. The disk is mainly affected by the international situation in the short - term, and it is advisable to treat it with an oscillatory mindset. After the macro - influencing factors subside, glass will return to the fundamental logic [2]. - The core contradiction of soda ash is the continuous inventory accumulation caused by strong supply and weak demand, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not improved. The disk is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and energy prices in the near - term, and it is advisable to maintain an oscillatory and slightly strong mindset. If the situation eases, the market will return to the domestic supply - demand logic [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - Today, the main glass contract opened low and moved lower, with an intraday oscillatory decline. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are upward, showing a short - term oscillatory and slightly strong signal. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 1.567 million lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 48,464 lots. The intraday high was 1109, the low was 1055, and the closing price was 1076, down 50 yuan/ton (4.44% decline) compared with yesterday's settlement price [1]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 79.637 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 3.629 million weight boxes (4.77% increase) and a year - on - year increase of 14.51%. The inventory days are 35.3 days, an increase of 1.5 days compared with the previous period. The inventory in each region has increased comprehensively, and the total inventory is approaching the three - year high [1]. Soda Ash - The main soda ash contract opened low and moved lower, with an intraday oscillatory decline. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are upward, showing a short - term oscillatory and slightly strong signal. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 10 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 1.265 million lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 45,914 lots. The intraday high was 1278, the low was 1220, and the closing price was 1235, down 58 yuan/ton (4.49% decline) compared with yesterday's settlement price [3]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.9227 million tons, a decrease of 24,500 tons (1.26% decline) compared with last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash is 1.016 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,300 tons, and heavy soda ash is 0.9067 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,200 tons [3].