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天风证券:首次覆盖中恒电气给予增持评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-06-15 01:27
Core Viewpoint - Zhongheng Electric (002364) is positioned to benefit from the increasing computing power in AIDC, with a focus on high-frequency switching power systems and a strong market presence in the communication power sector [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Zhongheng Electric has been dedicated to power supply for 29 years, focusing on the research, production, sales, and service of high-frequency switching power systems [2]. - The company operates in two main segments: power electronics manufacturing and power digitalization, with power system business being the primary revenue driver [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The global and Chinese computing power scale is experiencing rapid growth, with a CAGR of 46.5% from 2020 to 2023, reaching 1369 EFLOPS [3]. - China's intelligent computing power is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating that by 2025, it will account for 35% of the total computing power [3]. - The electricity consumption of data centers is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 20% from 2024 to 2030, significantly outpacing the overall electricity consumption growth [3]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - HVDC technology is gaining traction in data centers due to its advantages in energy efficiency and power supply reliability compared to traditional UPS systems [3]. - Zhongheng Electric is a pioneer in providing HVDC green power solutions for data centers, leveraging its first-mover advantage [3]. Group 4: Communication Power Sector - The construction of 5G base stations in China is progressing steadily, with the total number expected to reach 4.251 million by the end of 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 53.24% since 2020 [3]. - The power consumption of 5G base stations is significantly higher than that of 4G, necessitating a comprehensive upgrade of power systems [4]. Group 5: Renewable Energy and Electric Vehicles - In 2024, China's new energy installation capacity is projected to reach a record high, with a total of 358 million kW of new wind and solar installations, accounting for 40% of the global total [5]. - The demand for charging stations is expected to rise due to a 51.49% year-on-year increase in newly registered electric vehicles in 2024, with a penetration rate exceeding 40% [5]. - Zhongheng Electric has established itself as one of the earliest companies in the development and production of electric vehicle charging stations, benefiting from its early market entry [5]. Group 6: Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Zhongheng Electric indicate total revenues of 2.847 billion, 3.891 billion, and 4.796 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 45.1%, 36.7%, and 23.3% [5]. - Projected net profits for the same years are 157 million, 213 million, and 276 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.2%, 36.0%, and 29.5% [5].