Market Sentiment & Dollar Positioning - Market participants currently hold a long-term bearish dollar position [2] - Implied volatility measures are extremely low, suggesting markets are not pricing in a sharp dollar bounce [3] - Dollar could behave as a haven asset again under certain conditions, potentially lifting its value [2] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The market is still priced to take us this year, September, and then another one and add a little bit [6] - The possibility of the Fed meeting this month is pretty remote [5] - The Fed might cut interest rates later in the year, potentially dragging on the US currency [3] - The Fed is perceived as committed to lower interest rates, despite inflationary and tariff risks [8] Inflation & Tariffs - It might take a whole year for the tariff pass through into prices [4] - Uncertainty remains regarding the final future tariffs and their impact on CPI data [5] - There's a possibility of cost-sharing between US vendors and global suppliers to limit tariff pass-through to consumers [4] Bond Market - The MOVE index (implied volatility in the bond market) is at its lowest since 2022, indicating no panic about immediate Fed actions [8] - Supply dynamics at the back end of the yield curve warrant attention [9]