Bond Volatility

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This Long Straddle Can Cash In If Bond Volatility Heats Up
Investors· 2025-10-13 17:24
If long-term bond yields — or equivalently, the iShares fund price — make a sharp move in either direction, potential gains can be substantial, potentially multiples of the initial investment. There's finally some volatility returning to the stock market, with the Cboe Volatility Index spiking above 20 for the first time since June. Bond volatility has also ticked higher, but it remains relatively subdued. For investors anticipating increased volatility in longer-dated bonds, a long straddle in the iShares ...
US Bond Volatility Is Lowest Since 2022: 3-Minute MLIV
Bloomberg Television· 2025-07-11 08:09
Market Sentiment & Dollar Positioning - Market participants currently hold a long-term bearish dollar position [2] - Implied volatility measures are extremely low, suggesting markets are not pricing in a sharp dollar bounce [3] - Dollar could behave as a haven asset again under certain conditions, potentially lifting its value [2] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The market is still priced to take us this year, September, and then another one and add a little bit [6] - The possibility of the Fed meeting this month is pretty remote [5] - The Fed might cut interest rates later in the year, potentially dragging on the US currency [3] - The Fed is perceived as committed to lower interest rates, despite inflationary and tariff risks [8] Inflation & Tariffs - It might take a whole year for the tariff pass through into prices [4] - Uncertainty remains regarding the final future tariffs and their impact on CPI data [5] - There's a possibility of cost-sharing between US vendors and global suppliers to limit tariff pass-through to consumers [4] Bond Market - The MOVE index (implied volatility in the bond market) is at its lowest since 2022, indicating no panic about immediate Fed actions [8] - Supply dynamics at the back end of the yield curve warrant attention [9]