Core Insights - Inflation significantly impacts household expenses, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) being a crucial economic indicator [1] - The CPI is divided into eight categories, with food, shelter, and clothing accounting for over 60% of the index [2] - Medical care and housing have seen the fastest price growth, each increasing over 100% since 2000, while apparel has only grown about 4% [4] CPI Component Analysis - Transportation exhibits high volatility, primarily driven by motor fuel prices, which affects overall transportation costs [5] - Energy costs are integrated into housing and transportation expenses rather than being a standalone category, with energy accounting for 6.216% of total expenditures [6][7] - College tuition and fees have increased nearly 200% since 2000, significantly impacting budgets for families with college-bound students [8] Core Inflation Metrics - Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is closely monitored by economists and policymakers, with a cumulative change of 85.6% since 2000 [11][12] - As of September 2025, the annualized rate of change for headline CPI is 3.01%, while core CPI is at 3.02% [12] Household Impact of Inflation - The effects of inflation vary widely among households, with lower-income families and those with high transportation or medical costs being particularly vulnerable [15][16] - Inflation volatility disproportionately affects households with limited budgets, making discretionary spending challenging [16]

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images Federal Reserve officials such as Chair Jerome Powell have said they're paying close attention to jobs. Key Takeaways The Consumer Price Index rose less than expected in September, leaving the Fed on track to cut interest rates. Fed officials had held their key interest rate high this year to subdue inflation, but the Fed has decided to cut interest rates to boost the job market. It would have taken a surprising surge of inflation in September to deter the F ...

The Bank of Canada continued to fade its preferred measures of underlying price pressures, saying it’s weighing a broader suite of gauges that suggest core inflation is closer to its 2% target https://t.co/rZYNS54cW3 ...

🇺🇸 UPDATE: US consumer spending rose 0.4% in August despite core inflation holding at 2.9%. https://t.co/32F3nQde0S ...

Core Insights - Inflation significantly impacts household expenses, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) being a crucial economic indicator [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) categorizes expenditures into eight categories, with food, shelter, and clothing comprising over 60% of the CPI [2] CPI Component Growth - Medical Care and Housing have seen over 100% growth since 2000, while Food and Beverage also increased significantly due to pandemic-related price spikes [4] - Apparel has only grown about 2% since 2000, showing seasonal volatility, while Transportation exhibits high volatility driven by motor fuel prices [5] Energy Costs - Energy is not treated as a standalone category in the CPI but is distributed across Housing and Transportation expenses, with a relative importance of 6.216 out of 100 as of December 2024 [6][7] College Tuition - College Tuition and Fees have increased nearly 200% since 2000, representing 1.324% of total expenditures, which can severely impact household budgets [8] - The BLS's calculation of tuition often does not reflect actual costs after financial aid, potentially exaggerating the inflation impact [9][10] Core Inflation - Core Inflation, which excludes food and energy, is closely monitored by economists, with an annualized rate of change of 2.92% for headline CPI and 3.11% for core CPI as of August 2025 [11][12] Household Impact - The impact of inflation varies significantly among households, with lower-income families and those with high transportation or medical costs being more vulnerable [15][16]

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Income and Spending - Personal income decreased by 04% month-over-month, a notable shift from the strong performance throughout 2025 [1] - Spending also declined by 01% month-over-month, falling short of expectations [2] - Real spending experienced a decrease of 03%, contrasting with expectations of remaining near unchanged [3] Inflation Data - PCE increased by 01% month-over-month, aligning with expectations [4] - Year-over-year PCE stood at 23%, precisely as anticipated [4] - Core PCE rose by 02% month-over-month, exceeding expectations by 01% [5] - Core PCE year-over-year reached 27%, indicating a stickiness in inflation [5][6] Interest Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decrease of approximately 12 basis points on the week, settling at 426% [7] - The 2-year Treasury yield saw a significant drop of nearly 20 basis points on the week, reaching 372-373% [7][8] - The report suggests that achieving the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target remains challenging [7]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a base case median expectation of two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, with a possibility of one rate cut being signaled [7]. Core Insights - The report outlines three primary reasons for a dovish stance from Chair Powell: three months of softer core inflation, rising continuing jobless claims, and softer housing data [6][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Inflation Data - Core PCE inflation is projected to register an annualized rate of 1.6% over March, April, and May, indicating a slowdown from stronger readings earlier in the year [9]. - The decline in shelter inflation is expected to continue due to weak housing activity and a decrease in Case-Shiller house prices [9]. Labor Market - Continuing jobless claims have risen to 1,956,000, the highest level since 2021, while initial jobless claims remain lower, suggesting weak hiring conditions [9]. - The labor market is perceived as "resilient" with 139,000 new jobs added and an unemployment rate of 4.2% in May, but recent data adds caution to Powell's outlook [9]. Housing Market - The housing sector is contracting, with prices, permits, and starts for single-family homes all declining. The NAHB index fell to 32, the lowest since 2022, particularly weak in the South [9]. - Current mortgage rates are contributing to the contraction in the housing market, indicating that interest rates remain restrictive and may need to be reduced [9].

On a headline basis, certainly better than anticipated, up just a 10th of a percent. The core is up just a 10th of a percent as well. The last month was 2/10 for each of those and the forecast was for a 2/10 rise in the headline and a 3/10 rise in the core.Now, for a year over year number, we do go up on a year over year basis to 2.4% from 2.3%. For the headline, the core stays the same 2.8%. So if there is a tariff effect, it is very small in these numbers.According to the BLS, the index for shelter rose 3 ...