🇺🇸 UPDATE: US consumer spending rose 0.4% in August despite core inflation holding at 2.9%. https://t.co/32F3nQde0S ...

Core Insights - Inflation significantly impacts household expenses, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) being a crucial economic indicator [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) categorizes expenditures into eight categories, with food, shelter, and clothing comprising over 60% of the CPI [2] CPI Component Growth - Medical Care and Housing have seen over 100% growth since 2000, while Food and Beverage also increased significantly due to pandemic-related price spikes [4] - Apparel has only grown about 2% since 2000, showing seasonal volatility, while Transportation exhibits high volatility driven by motor fuel prices [5] Energy Costs - Energy is not treated as a standalone category in the CPI but is distributed across Housing and Transportation expenses, with a relative importance of 6.216 out of 100 as of December 2024 [6][7] College Tuition - College Tuition and Fees have increased nearly 200% since 2000, representing 1.324% of total expenditures, which can severely impact household budgets [8] - The BLS's calculation of tuition often does not reflect actual costs after financial aid, potentially exaggerating the inflation impact [9][10] Core Inflation - Core Inflation, which excludes food and energy, is closely monitored by economists, with an annualized rate of change of 2.92% for headline CPI and 3.11% for core CPI as of August 2025 [11][12] Household Impact - The impact of inflation varies significantly among households, with lower-income families and those with high transportation or medical costs being more vulnerable [15][16]

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Income and Spending - Personal income decreased by 04% month-over-month, a notable shift from the strong performance throughout 2025 [1] - Spending also declined by 01% month-over-month, falling short of expectations [2] - Real spending experienced a decrease of 03%, contrasting with expectations of remaining near unchanged [3] Inflation Data - PCE increased by 01% month-over-month, aligning with expectations [4] - Year-over-year PCE stood at 23%, precisely as anticipated [4] - Core PCE rose by 02% month-over-month, exceeding expectations by 01% [5] - Core PCE year-over-year reached 27%, indicating a stickiness in inflation [5][6] Interest Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decrease of approximately 12 basis points on the week, settling at 426% [7] - The 2-year Treasury yield saw a significant drop of nearly 20 basis points on the week, reaching 372-373% [7][8] - The report suggests that achieving the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target remains challenging [7]

V i e w p o i n t | 18 Jun 2025 08:33:31 ET │ 13 pages US Economics The Daily Update – Three reasons for Powell to sound dovish CITI'S TAKE Today at 2PM we expect Chair Powell's comments to skew dovish and median dots to continue to indicate two 25bp rate cuts this year. Powell has at least three reasons to be dovish: 1. Three months of softer core inflation 2. Rising continuing jobless claims 3. Softer housing data. Andrew Hollenhorst AC +1-212-816-0325 andrew.hollenhorst@citi.com Veronica Clark AC +1-212- ...

On a headline basis, certainly better than anticipated, up just a 10th of a percent. The core is up just a 10th of a percent as well. The last month was 2/10 for each of those and the forecast was for a 2/10 rise in the headline and a 3/10 rise in the core.Now, for a year over year number, we do go up on a year over year basis to 2.4% from 2.3%. For the headline, the core stays the same 2.8%. So if there is a tariff effect, it is very small in these numbers.According to the BLS, the index for shelter rose 3 ...