Core Inflation Measures - Inflation remains a significant concern, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) at 3.1% and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.5%, both above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2] - The Federal Reserve uses PCE data as its primary inflation gauge, emphasizing core inflation that excludes volatile food and energy prices [2][3] Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, following three consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each, marking the lowest level since November 2022 [3][4] - The Fed is expected to maintain rates in the upcoming meeting, with a 99% likelihood of holding rates steady according to the CME FedWatch Tool [4] Comparison of PCE and CPI - Core PCE is less volatile than core CPI, making it a more reliable indicator for the Fed, which aims for price stability and maximum employment [6] - Historically, core CPI has shown more volatility, consistently registering higher readings than core PCE nearly 80% of the time since 1960, with an average difference of 48 basis points [10] Historical Trends - Since 1960, core CPI has grown by 988%, while core PCE has increased by 712%, indicating a significant difference in inflationary growth rates [11] - The COVID-19 pandemic led to the highest inflation rates since the early 1980s, with core PCE peaking at 5.57% in February 2022 and core CPI at 6.63% in September 2022 [8]

-- The Fed's Favorite Measure Of Inflation Stayed Hot In January Friday's Markets: Live CoverageWar Could Push Up More Than Just Gas PricesOil Shock From Iran Conflict Complicates Fed's TaskAnthropic Identifies the Jobs Most Exposed to AI- Top StoriesWhile inflation remained steady in January, more recent events may have already pushed prices higher.Justin Sullivan / Getty ImagesClose### Key Takeaways- The report showed that prices were stubbornly above the Fed's 2% annual target early this year, before the ...

Economic growth was much slower than expected in the final three months of 2025 while core inflation rose to start 2026, the Commerce Department reported Friday.Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to the department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4 ...

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a crucial economic indicator that reflects inflation's impact on household expenditures, with food, shelter, and clothing comprising over 60% of the index [1] - Medical Care and Housing have seen the most significant price increases, each growing over 100% since 2000, while Apparel has remained nearly unchanged [1][2] - College Tuition and Fees have increased nearly 200% since 2000, significantly affecting families with college-bound students, although actual costs may be lower due to financial aid [1] - Daycare and Preschool costs have surged almost 160% since 2000, placing a substantial financial burden on families, particularly as pandemic-era support has ended [1] - Core Inflation, which excludes food and energy, is closely monitored by economists, with the annualized rate of change for core CPI at 2.46% as of February 2026 [2] CPI Component Analysis - The CPI is divided into eight categories, with Energy costs indirectly affecting overall expenditures, assigned a relative importance of 6.297 out of 100 [1] - Transportation, which includes motor fuel, is highly volatile, significantly influenced by fluctuations in gasoline prices [1] - The cumulative change in headline CPI since 2000 is 94.2%, while core CPI has increased by 87.0%, indicating a substantial long-term impact on purchasing power [2] Household Impact of Inflation - Inflation affects households differently, with low-income families and those with high expenses in transportation, medical care, tuition, and daycare experiencing the most significant strain [2] - The exclusion of energy costs from core inflation metrics can obscure the real financial pressures faced by households reliant on transportation and energy [2]

Members of Congress and my fellow Americans, our nation is back bigger, better, richer, and stronger than ever before. One of the primary reasons for our country's stunning economic turnaround, the biggest in history, were the Dow Jones broke 50,000 four years ahead of schedule. Were tariffs.I used these tariffs, took in hundreds of millions of dollars to make great deals for our country, both economically and on a national security basis. Everything was working well. Countries that were ripping us off for ...

🔔US Q4 2025 GDP GROWTH DROPS TO 1.4%, WELL BELOW EXPECTATIONS OF +3%December PCE inflation rose to 2.9%, beating expectations, with Core PCE climbing to 3.0%, its highest level since November 2023.Core inflation is now at its highest level in over a year. https://t.co/3TfmB3zdRb ...

Core Insights - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has experienced a decline of 1.31% over the past month, with its Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.91, nearing oversold territory [1] - Despite a modest one-year gain of 11.95%, investor sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy and concentration risk in major tech stocks [1] - Over 75% of S&P 500 firms reported year-over-year earnings growth, while core PCE inflation stands at 1.82%, below the Fed's 2% target, indicating a potential for bullish sentiment [1] Retail Investor Sentiment - Retail investors have shown mixed sentiment on social media, with discussions shifting from bullish to bearish as they debate whether current SPY levels represent a buying opportunity or further downside [1] - A notable post on Reddit's r/wallstreetbets highlighted a user’s loss of $87,300 on SPY puts, generating significant engagement and reflecting the anxiety among retail investors [1] - Current sentiment for SPY is neutral at 42.2 out of 100, influenced by recent market activity [1] Market Dynamics - Historical patterns indicate that SPY's RSI has dropped below 40 multiple times in the past year, with subsequent recoveries occurring within weeks [1] - The top three holdings in SPY—NVIDIA, Apple, and Microsoft—account for nearly 20% of the fund, raising concerns about concentration risk for investors monitoring short-term performance [1]

2025, the annualized rate of change for headline CPI is 2.39% while the annualized change for core CPI is 2.50%. However, the cumulative change in these series since 2000 is 93.3% for headline CPI and 86.3% for core CPI.Consumers, especially those who've managed expenses over several years, are most closely attuned to the top line because the cumulative perspective makes it easier to grasp the real impact of inflation on purchasing power over time.## Inflation and Your HouseholdThe universal response is to ...

Key Takeaways Forecasters expect inflation to have decelerated in January, with core prices rising 2.5% over the year, the lowest since 2021. Tariffs are still pushing up prices, but some costs, including for housing, aren't rising as quickly as they did a few years ago. Tame inflation could take pressure off the Federal Reserve to keep its key interest rate higher for longer to subdue price increases. Price increases were likely relatively tame in January, with one key inflation measure expected ...

Core Inflation and Federal Reserve Actions - Inflation remains a significant concern, with core PCE at 2.8% and core CPI at 2.6%, both above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2] - The Federal Reserve uses PCE data as its primary inflation gauge and emphasizes core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices [2][3] - In its latest meeting, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut and the lowest level since November 2022 [3] Future Expectations and Market Sentiment - The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in the upcoming meeting, with a 95% likelihood of maintaining current rates according to the CME FedWatch Tool [4] Comparison of PCE and CPI - Core PCE is preferred over core CPI due to its lower volatility, making it a more reliable indicator for the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [6] - Historically, core CPI has shown more volatility compared to core PCE, which has implications for inflation management [7][10] - As of November 2025, core CPI has grown 983% since 1960, while core PCE has grown 705%, indicating a significant difference in inflationary growth rates [11]