Cost inflation in mining

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Agnico Eagle Stock Rallies 35% in 3 Months: What Should Investors Do?
ZACKS· 2025-04-11 13:16
Core Viewpoint - Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) has experienced a significant share price increase of 35.4% over the past three months, driven by rising gold prices and strong earnings performance that exceeded forecasts [1][2]. Company Performance - AEM's performance has outpaced the Zacks Mining – Gold industry's increase of 27.9% and the S&P 500's decline of 6.9% during the same period [2]. - The company achieved a record annual gold production of 3,485,336 ounces in 2024, supported by higher output from key mines [10]. - AEM's operating cash flow surged approximately 55% year over year to $1,132 million in Q4 2024, with free cash flows reaching $570 million, an increase of around 89% year over year [13]. Financial Health - AEM maintains a strong liquidity position, having upsized its revolving credit facility to $2 billion, enhancing its available liquidity [13]. - The company reduced its net debt by $1,287 million in 2024, with net debt standing at $217 million at the end of Q4 2024 [13]. - AEM returned approximately $920 million to shareholders through dividends and repurchases last year [13]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices increased by roughly 27% last year, driven by strong demand from central banks and geopolitical tensions, with prices hitting a record high of $3,220 per ounce recently [14][15]. - The weaker U.S. dollar and high tariffs are expected to sustain gold price increases, with prices already up about 20% this year [15][16]. Cost Considerations - AEM faces challenges with rising production costs, with total cash costs per ounce of gold increasing by roughly 4% year over year and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) rising by about 7% [18]. - The company forecasts total cash costs per ounce in the range of $915 to $965 and AISC per ounce between $1,250 and $1,300 for 2025, indicating further cost increases [18]. Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEM's 2025 earnings has been revised upward, currently pegged at $5.18, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 22.5% [19]. - Earnings are expected to grow approximately 56.6% in the first quarter of 2025 [19]. Valuation Metrics - AEM is trading at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 25.52X, which is about 70% higher than the peer group average of 15.01X [21].