Core Viewpoint - Energy supermajors are facing significant challenges due to a weaker crude price environment, leading to potential pressure on shareholder payouts in the coming months [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - U.S. and European oil majors, including Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell, and BP, have begun cutting jobs and reducing costs in response to an industry downturn, marking a shift from the previous years of high profits [2][3]. - In 2022, the five largest Western oil companies reported nearly $200 billion in combined profits due to soaring fossil fuel prices following geopolitical events [2]. - The cash returns as a percentage of cash flow from operations (CFFO) have reached as high as 50% for several energy companies recently, indicating a trend of high shareholder returns [3]. Group 2: Financial Strategies - Analysts suggest that cutting buybacks is preferable to reducing dividends, as dividends are seen as more critical to investors [4][7]. - BP and TotalEnergies have announced plans to reduce shareholder returns, reflecting a necessary adjustment to the current market conditions [4][5]. - The potential for crude prices to fall into the $50 range next year, coupled with rising global inventories, is prompting oil companies to consider cost reductions and capital spending cuts [5][6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite concerns, the current state of Big Oil is not as dire as initially expected, with oil prices remaining relatively resilient in the $65 to $70 per barrel range for a period [11][12]. - Recent trading data shows Brent crude futures at $64.97 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate futures at $61.24, indicating a slight decline [12]. - The upcoming earnings reports from major companies like TotalEnergies, Shell, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and BP will be crucial in assessing the impact of the weaker commodity price environment on shareholder distributions [13][14].