The bottom line is that aggregate corporate margins remain at high levels, and consumers have been largely shielded from rising prices. ...

Japan Equity Research September 26, 2025 Autos/Auto Parts/Tire Sector Head of Japan Equity Research Japan: Auto / Auto Parts / Tires Akira Kishimoto AC 813-6736-8646 akira.x.kishimoto@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd. See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures. J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may ha ...

Core Insights - Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) achieved a notable margin performance in Q2 2025, with an adjusted EBIT margin of 6%, an increase of 120 basis points year-over-year, surpassing guidance that anticipated a decline of up to 30 basis points [1][9] - The gross margin improved to 43.7%, up 90 basis points from the previous year, driven by a 60 basis point increase in merchandise margin and a 30 basis point reduction in freight expenses [1][9] - The company raised its full-year 2025 outlook, expecting comparable store sales to rise by 1-2% and total sales to grow by 7-8% [3] Financial Performance - Product sourcing costs rose to $209 million from $191 million year-over-year, but remained stable as a percentage of sales [2] - Adjusted SG&A expenses contributed an additional 30 basis points boost due to cost-saving initiatives and higher comparable sales [2] - Reserve inventory increased to 50% of total inventory from 41% a year ago, as the company purchased large volumes of pre-tariff merchandise [2][9] Strategic Actions - To mitigate tariff-related cost pressures, Burlington is remixing assortments, negotiating with vendors, selectively raising prices, and pursuing aggressive expense controls [4] - Management is confident that these strategies, combined with a value-focused off-price model and strong reserve inventory, will help sustain and potentially expand margins despite ongoing tariff uncertainties [4] Comparative Analysis - Target Corporation (TGT) experienced a contraction in operating margin to 5.2% from 6.4% year-over-year, with gross margin declining to 29% [5] - Ross Stores (ROST) reported an operating margin of 11.5%, down 95 basis points, with tariffs contributing approximately 90 basis points of pressure [6] - Dollar Tree (DLTR) saw its operating margin decrease to 5.2%, while gross margin increased to 34.4% [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Burlington's stock has increased by 18.4% over the past three months, outperforming the industry average growth of 2.8% [8] - The forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio for BURL is 1.40X, lower than the industry average of 1.72X, indicating a favorable valuation [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Burlington's current fiscal-year sales and earnings per share suggests year-over-year growth of 7.9% and 15.4%, respectively [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales in Q1 were $29.7 million, a decrease of 28.7% compared to $41.6 million in Q1 last year [14] - On a six-month basis, net sales for Q4 and Q1 combined increased by 4.2% compared to the same period last year [14] - Gross margin for Q1 was 46.7%, up 130 basis points compared to Q1 last year [17] - GAAP EPS for Q1 was a loss of $0.54 compared to a loss of $0.18 last year, while non-GAAP EPS was negative $0.26 compared to $0.06 in Q1 last year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Traditional channel net sales decreased by 24.4% in Q1, while e-commerce net sales decreased by 35.2% compared to last year [14] - Net sales in shooting sports decreased by 25.1%, and outdoor lifestyle net sales decreased by 31.6% over Q1 last year [16] - Domestic net sales decreased by roughly 25%, while international net sales decreased by 58.2% or $2.6 million compared to Q1 last year [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Purchasing activity from retailers in Q1 reflected replenishment cycles that were turned on and off on a retailer-by-retailer basis [9] - E-commerce channel underperformed in Q1 due to lower order flow from a large e-commerce retailer adjusting its purchasing patterns [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes consumer-driven innovation and adapting to a shifting environment to strengthen brand equity and long-term growth [5][6] - An expanded partnership with Major League Fishing aims to enhance recurring subscription revenue and product introductions [11] - The company plans to introduce new products at the upcoming Shot Show in January, focusing on innovation to fuel growth [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The current environment is characterized by evolving tariff impacts and macroeconomic uncertainty, similar to FY2023 [6][22] - Management expects a year-over-year decline in net sales for Q2 of approximately 15% but remains optimistic about the overall year due to strong POS performance and new product launches [23][24] - The company is focused on maintaining gross margins and controlling costs while supporting long-term growth initiatives [24] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $17.8 million in cash and no debt, maintaining a strong balance sheet [19] - Inventory increased by $21.1 million in the quarter, primarily for seasonal inventory build and tariff-related adjustments [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is there still excess tariff-related inventory at retail partners? - Management indicated that while some inventory was accelerated into the prior quarter, it would not be classified as excess [26] Question: How much pricing have you taken so far regarding tariffs? - Management discussed a multi-faceted approach to offset price increases, including supplier concessions and product redesigns, with ongoing adjustments expected throughout the year [27][28] Question: When do you expect order choppiness to settle down? - Management noted that retailers are ordering cautiously, and as inventory normalizes, they expect improved visibility moving forward [36][38] Question: Which brands are seeing the strongest POS? - Brands like Caldwell and BUBBA are performing well, with strong POS data indicating consumer demand [41] Question: What is the status of the M&A pipeline? - The company remains active in looking for acquisition targets but is finding fewer opportunities and is being patient in its approach [44][45] Question: Are consumers trading down to more value-oriented products? - Management observed that while some consumers may be trading down, the company's products continue to attract affluent consumers and enthusiasts [50][51]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2, total net revenue rose 7% to $2.5 billion, with comparable sales increasing 1% [25][26] - Gross profit was $1.48 billion, representing 58.5% of net revenue, down from 59.6% in Q2 2024 [26][27] - Net income for the quarter was $371 million, or $3.10 per diluted share, compared to $3.15 in the same period last year [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Men's revenue increased 6%, women's revenue increased 5%, and accessories and other grew 15% [26] - Performance apparel continues to grow, while lounge and social product offerings have become stale, impacting sales negatively [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., revenue was flat, with comparable sales down 3% [25][26] - China mainland revenue increased 25%, with comparable sales up 16% [26][21] - The rest of the world segment saw a revenue growth of 19%, with comparable sales increasing by 9% [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on increasing the number and frequency of new styles in its product assortment, aiming to raise new styles from 23% to 35% by spring 2026 [15][16] - A new Chief AI and Technology Officer has been appointed to enhance product innovation and agility [17] - The company plans to navigate increased costs from tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption through strategic pricing and supply chain initiatives [24][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns over the U.S. business performance and the impact of tariffs on guidance [5][20] - The company expects revenue growth of 4% to 6% for the year, with a decline in U.S. revenue projected at 1% to 2% [20][31] - Management remains optimistic about international growth, particularly in China, where growth is expected to be 20% to 25% [20][31] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with $1.16 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and inventory increased 21% to $1.7 billion [30] - Capital expenditures for the quarter were approximately $178 million, reflecting timing of store openings [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on product department changes and impact on the back half of the year - The company is focusing on three key areas: maintaining momentum in performance activities, introducing new styles in lounge and social, and refreshing iconic items [47] Question: Impact of recent tariff increases on pricing strategy - The company is implementing modest price increases on a small portion of its assortment and will continue to evaluate pricing as a lever [50] Question: Context on lifestyle assortment and performance versus casual - The company believes a 60/40 split between performance and casual is a good benchmark, with ongoing innovation in both segments [54] Question: Timeline for new innovation to offset pressure from casual platforms - The company expects the new styles introduced in spring 2026 to help offset pressures from casual offerings [59] Question: Speed of supply chain improvements and lead times - The company is working to improve lead times and agility in its supply chain processes, aiming to reduce lead times significantly [66] Question: Inventory management and de minimis exemption impact - The company fulfills approximately two-thirds of U.S. e-commerce orders through Canada, which previously benefited from the de minimis exemption [81]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q2 2025, total net revenue rose 7% to $2.5 billion, with comparable sales increasing by 1% [27][28] - Gross profit was $1.48 billion, representing 58.5% of net revenue, a decrease from 59.6% in Q2 2024 [28][29] - Net income for the quarter was $371 million, or $3.10 per diluted share, compared to $3.15 in the same period last year [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Men's revenue increased by 6%, women's by 5%, and accessories and other grew by 15% [28] - The casual segment, which constitutes about 40% of the assortment, is experiencing fatigue, particularly in core franchises like Scuba and SoftStream [49][56] - Performance apparel continues to grow, with strong sales across key activities such as yoga, run, and train [12][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In China, total revenue increased by 25%, with comparable sales up by 16% [28][20] - The Americas saw revenue growth of 1%, with comparable sales down by 3% [27][28] - The rest of the world segment grew by 19%, with comparable sales increasing by 9% [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on increasing the number and frequency of new styles in its product assortment, aiming to raise new styles from 23% to 35% by spring 2026 [17][19] - A new Chief AI and Technology Officer has been appointed to enhance product innovation and agility [19] - The company plans to navigate increased costs from tariffs through strategic pricing and supply chain initiatives [26][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed dissatisfaction with current U.S. results and acknowledged the need for a reset in product offerings [6][24] - The company expects revenue growth of 4%-6% for the year, with a decline of 1%-2% in the U.S. market [23][32] - Management remains optimistic about international growth, particularly in China, where they anticipate continued strong performance [20][24] Other Important Information - The company ended Q2 with $1.16 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and inventory increased by 21% to $1.7 billion [31] - Capital expenditures for the quarter were approximately $178 million, reflecting timing of store openings [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on product department changes and impact on sales - Management highlighted a focus on performance activities and new styles in lounge and social categories, with two new items launching in the back half of the year [48] Question: Impact of recent tariff increases on pricing strategy - The company is implementing modest price increases on a small portion of its assortment and is pleased with the initial results [52] Question: Context on casual segment performance and timeline for new innovations - Management indicated that the casual segment is about 40% of the mix, with new styles expected to offset current pressures [49][63] Question: Supply chain initiatives and lead time improvements - The company is working to improve lead times and agility in its supply chain processes, with a focus on vendor partnerships [68] Question: Marketing strategy and brand engagement - Management plans to maintain current marketing spend as a percentage of revenue while focusing on grassroots community engagement [71] Question: Annualized impact of tariffs and pricing as a mitigation tool - The CFO noted that pricing will be a significant part of the mitigation strategy, alongside expense actions [76]

Core Viewpoint - American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. has demonstrated resilience by exceeding financial expectations despite ongoing market challenges, with shares trading lower following the announcement of better-than-expected second-quarter results [1]. Financial Performance - American Eagle reported second-quarter revenue of $1.28 billion, surpassing analyst estimates of $1.24 billion, and earnings per share of 45 cents, exceeding expectations of 20 cents [2]. - The company is now expected to achieve flat full-year revenue of approximately $5.334 billion, reflecting a 0.1% year-over-year increase, compared to a prior forecast of a 2.6% decline to $5.189 billion [6][7]. Sales and Growth Outlook - Comparable sales growth is anticipated to be in the low single-digit range for both the third and fourth quarters [3]. - Despite a fourth consecutive quarter of sales decline, the rate of decline has eased by over 400 basis points, aided by growth in the Aerie brand [4]. Analyst Insights - Telsey Advisory Group's analyst Dana Telsey raised the price target from $12 to $18 while maintaining a Market Perform rating, noting improvements in management and back-half outlook [3][5]. - Bank of America Securities' analyst Christopher Nardone reiterated an Underperform rating, increasing the price target from $10 to $11, and estimating a tariff impact of about $70 million for FY25 [8]. Tariff Impact - The projected tariff impact for the fourth quarter is estimated to be between $40 million and $50 million, significantly lower than the "unmitigated impact" of $180 million due to effective supply chain management and pricing adjustments [5][6]. - For FY26, the net effect of tariffs is expected to be more pronounced in the first half, potentially limiting margin improvement [9]. Stock Performance - American Eagle shares were up 34.08% at $18.26 at the time of publication, trading within a 52-week range of $9.27 to $22.63 [10].

Core Insights - G-III Apparel Group, Ltd. reported second-quarter fiscal 2026 results with both net sales and earnings exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates, despite a year-over-year decline in both metrics [1][3][9] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter were 25 cents, surpassing the consensus estimate of 10 cents, but down 51.9% from 52 cents in the same quarter last year [3] - Net sales decreased 4.9% year over year to $613.3 million, exceeding the consensus estimate of $570 million [3] - Gross profit fell 9.2% year over year to $250.5 million, with gross margin declining 200 basis points to 40.8% [4] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased 46.3% year over year to $23.3 million, with the adjusted EBITDA margin down 320 basis points to 3.8% [5] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - As of the end of the fiscal second quarter, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $301.8 million and total debt of $15.5 million, with total stockholders' equity at $1.71 billion [6] - Inventory increased 4.8% year over year to $639.8 million [6] - The company repurchased 1,140,988 shares for $24.6 million during the fiscal second quarter [6] Fiscal 2026 Guidance - For fiscal 2026, net sales are projected to be approximately $3.02 billion, down from $3.18 billion in fiscal 2025, reflecting a cautious outlook from retail partners and tariff impacts [2][7] - The company anticipates a total incremental tariff cost of approximately $155 million for fiscal 2026, with half mitigated through vendor participation and strategic sourcing [8] - Full-year net income is expected to range between $112 million and $122 million, down from $193.6 million in fiscal 2025 [9][10] Q3 Outlook - Net sales for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 are anticipated to be around $1.01 billion, compared to $1.09 billion in the prior-year quarter [12] - Net income for the fiscal third quarter is expected to be between $62 million and $72 million, down from $114.8 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2025 [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $1.9 billion, a 4% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by stronger ORV shipments, offset by lower personal watercraft deliveries [6][22] - Normalized EBITDA was $213 million, and normalized EPS was $0.92, which included approximately $0.35 from tax credits recorded in the quarter [6][22] - Free cash flow from continuing operations reached $100 million, with over $270 million in cash at the end of the quarter, indicating strong financial flexibility [22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American powersports retail decreased by 11%, with Canada showing a 4% growth driven by ORV, while the U.S. experienced a 15% decline [7][8] - Year-round product revenue increased by 13% to $1.1 billion, driven by higher ORV shipments following last year's inventory reduction plan [15] - Seasonal product revenues decreased by 13% to $470 million, mainly due to a planned reduction in personal watercraft shipments [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail in Latin America grew by 22%, led by strong ORV performance, while Asia Pacific saw a 5% increase, marking the first growth in two years [8][9] - EMEA experienced a 13% decline in retail, consistent with industry trends [8] - The overall global industry trend showed slight improvement compared to previous quarters [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining operational efficiency and managing shipments to improve network inventory positions [21][25] - A definitive agreement for the sale of Manitou was announced, expected to close in the coming weeks [6] - The introduction of new products, including the Can Am Defender, is aimed at capturing market share and enhancing dealer profitability [11][29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the second half of the year, citing improved visibility on expected deliveries and a strong product lineup [25][29] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, but the company is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities [25][29] - The guidance for revenues is set between $8.15 billion and $8.3 billion, with normalized EBITDA expected to be between $1.04 billion and $1.09 billion [27] Other Important Information - The company has successfully reduced dealer inventory by 20% year-over-year, positioning itself to better align wholesale with retail [23][24] - The tariff impact for the year is estimated at $90 million, reflecting increased tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper [27][50] - Management emphasized the importance of innovation and technology in sustaining profitable growth [30] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the tariff scenarios being contemplated? - Management is in constant dialogue with Canadian and Mexican authorities regarding tariff regulations and believes they can adapt to any changes [33][36] Question: Can you elaborate on the current versus non-current inventory situation? - The company noted that most OEMs are cautious with shipments, and they are encouraged by the improved inventory ratios [41][44] Question: What is the outlook for retail sales in the second half? - Management expects retail to improve in the second half, particularly in ORV, driven by new product introductions and a cleaner inventory environment [46][70] Question: How does the company plan to mitigate tariff exposure? - Mitigation efforts include sourcing adjustments and production shifts to minimize tariff impacts [37][50] Question: What is the expected revenue profile outlook? - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue as inventory aligns with retail, with a potential tailwind of $400 million to $500 million from destocking [53][102] Question: What are the expectations for EPS growth in the coming years? - Management believes the company has the capacity to grow EPS significantly, depending on industry dynamics and macroeconomic conditions [97][99]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported revenue of $1.9 billion, a 4% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by stronger ORV shipments, offset by lower personal watercraft deliveries [20][4] - Normalized EBITDA was $213 million, and normalized EPS was $0.92, which included approximately $0.35 from tax credits recorded in the quarter [20][4] - Free cash flow from continuing operations reached $100 million, with over $270 million in cash at the end of the quarter, indicating a solid balance sheet [20][4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American powersports retail decreased by 11%, with Canada showing a 4% growth driven by ORV, while the U.S. experienced a 15% decline [5][6] - Year-round product revenue increased by 13% to $1.1 billion, driven by higher ORV shipments following last year's inventory reduction plan [13] - Seasonal product revenues decreased by 13% to $470 million, mainly due to a planned reduction in personal watercraft shipments [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail in Latin America grew by 22%, led by strong performance in ORV, while Asia Pacific saw a 5% increase, marking the first growth in two years [6] - EMEA experienced a 13% decline in retail, consistent with industry trends [6] - The overall global industry trend showed slight improvement compared to previous quarters [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a definitive agreement for the sale of Manitou, expected to close soon, indicating strategic divestment [4] - The introduction of new products, including the new generation Can Am Defender and expanded electric vehicle offerings, is aimed at gaining market share [9][11] - The company is focused on operational efficiency and managing shipments to improve network inventory positions [19][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the second half of the year, citing improved visibility on expected deliveries and a strong reception for new products [23][24] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, but the company is well-positioned to capture demand upside when market conditions improve [23][24] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to tariff situations and maintaining competitive pricing strategies [34][36] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing a 20% year-over-year reduction in network inventory, which is expected to enhance competitiveness and protect brand value [21][22] - The guidance for fiscal year 2026 includes revenues of $8.15 billion to $8.3 billion, normalized EBITDA of $1.04 billion to $1.09 billion, and normalized EPS of $4.25 to $4.75 [25][26] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the tariff scenarios that you're contemplating? - Management indicated that they are closely monitoring the USMCA and are prepared to adapt to any regulatory changes [33][34] Question: Can you shed light on your plans to mitigate the tariff exposure? - The company is actively working on sourcing strategies and production adjustments to minimize tariff impacts [36][37] Question: What does the retail outlook look like for the second half? - Management expects retail to improve in the second half, particularly in ORV, as inventory levels are cleaner and new products are introduced [46][68] Question: How do you see the revenue profile outlook with the alignment of wholesale and retail? - Management noted that destocking has had a significant revenue impact, but they anticipate a recovery as inventory levels normalize [52][53] Question: What are the expectations for margins going forward? - The company expects to see margin improvements due to reduced promotional activity and better inventory management [60][61] Question: What are the factors driving the discrepancy in retail sales between Canada and the U.S.? - Management attributed the differences to macroeconomic conditions, including inflation and consumer confidence in the U.S. compared to Canada [110][112]