Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in views among international investment banks regarding copper prices indicates a potential volatility in the non-ferrous metal sector, with some institutions optimistic while others express caution [1][2]. Group 1: Institutional Predictions - Morgan Stanley predicts a bullish outlook for copper, forecasting a price of $12,500 per ton by Q2 [2] - UBS shares a similar optimistic view, projecting a year-end price of $13,000 [2] - Citigroup also maintains a positive stance, expecting prices to exceed $13,000 in Q2 [2] - Conversely, Goldman Sachs advises caution, suggesting a potential drop to $11,000 per ton in December [2] - Capital Economics leans towards a bearish outlook, indicating a possible price decline [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Copper prices surged from $11,000 in early December to over $13,300, surpassing some optimistic forecasts [3] - Goldman Sachs warns that the current high prices have attracted speculative investments, which may suppress short-term actual consumption [5] - The speculative enthusiasm for copper is linked to concerns over potential tariffs following the U.S. Section 232 investigation, which led to significant imports of refined copper [6] Group 3: Long-term Demand Drivers - The fundamental narrative supporting copper prices revolves around its role as a "green metal" and "AI metal," driven by global infrastructure upgrades, electric vehicle adoption, and AI data center construction [7] - The ongoing demand for copper is expected to remain strong, as long as the underlying growth story persists [7] - The non-ferrous metal ETF funds track A-share listed companies rather than futures prices, meaning the performance of mining and refining companies will directly benefit from rising copper prices [7][8] Group 4: Investment Considerations - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund tracks a diversified index, with copper comprising 33% of the index, followed by aluminum and gold, indicating a balanced exposure to various metals [8] - Given the current global economic landscape and rising risk aversion, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund is expected to maintain a strong investment rationale throughout the year [8]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 周四，美国至 1 月 17 日当周初请失业金人数 20 万人，预 期 21 万人，前值由 19.8 万人修正为 19.9 万人。美国第三季度 实际 GDP 年化季率终值 4.4%，预期 4.30%，前值 4.30%。美 国第三季度实际个人消费支出季率终值 3.5%，前值 3.5%。美 国第三季度核心 PCE 物价指数年化季率终值 2.9%，预期 2.9% ，前值 2.90% 。美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数月率 0.2%，预期 0.20%。美国 11 月个人支出月率 0.5%，预期 0.50%。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要: ►贵金属：地缘扰动叠加央行购金，贵金属价格持续 突破历史新高 本周 COMEX 黄金上涨 8.30%至 4,983.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银上涨 14.80%至 103.26 美元/盎司。SHFE 黄金上 涨 8.07% 至 1,115.64 元 / 克 ，SHFE 白银上涨 11.04% 至 24,965.00 元/千克。 本周金银比下跌 5.66%至 48.26。本周 SPDR 黄金 ETF 持 仓增加 27,574.43 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records in 2026 [12] - Zinc is viewed as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the potential for precious metals to lead industrial metals in price increases, driven by a breakdown in the gold-silver ratio and a late-stage long-term debt cycle [7][12] - Specific investment opportunities include companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) and others in the precious metals sector [7] Zinc Sector - The report identifies zinc as a critical material in the context of re-industrialization, with supply constraints and increasing demand expected to drive prices higher [13] Aluminum Sector - The report highlights the competitive advantages of China's electrolytic aluminum industry, which is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and supply chain security [13] Steel Sector - The steel industry is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low period before the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production and consumption metrics indicate a slight increase in iron output but a decrease in rebar demand, reflecting a mixed outlook for the sector [19][26] New Energy Metals - The report notes significant increases in lithium and cobalt prices, with production metrics showing substantial year-on-year growth in lithium carbonate output [37][46] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures indicating continued growth in the sector [41] Industrial Metals - The report discusses the overall upward trend in industrial metal prices, driven by political policy risks and supply reduction expectations [56] - Specific metrics indicate rising copper production and declining refining fees, suggesting a tightening supply environment [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Insights - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records [12] - Zinc is identified as an overlooked material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of precious metals in preserving wealth amid a declining trust in fiat currencies, recommending active investment in this sector [12] Zinc Sector - The report suggests that zinc, as a fundamental material for de-globalization, will see increased demand driven by infrastructure needs in emerging markets, despite current market skepticism [13] Aluminum Sector - The electrolytic aluminum industry in China is expected to benefit from enhanced supply chain security and competitive advantages, with a positive outlook for profitability and valuation [13] Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production has seen a slight increase, but demand for rebar is weakening, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [19] New Energy Metals - Lithium and carbonate prices have shown significant increases, with production levels rising sharply, indicating strong demand in the new energy vehicle sector [37][41] - The report notes a substantial increase in the production of lithium carbonate and hydroxide, reflecting the growing demand for electric vehicles [37] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that political risks and supply constraints are contributing to an overall increase in industrial metal prices, with copper production expected to rise despite declining refining fees [56][57]

有色金属 2026 年 1 月 25 日 有色金属周报 避险情绪发酵，贵金属价格冲高 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 25/01 25/04 25/07 25/10 26/01 沪深300 有色金属 证券分析师 核心观点： 贵金属-黄金：避险情绪发酵，贵金属价格冲高。截至 1.23，COMEX 金主力合约达 4983.1 美元/盎司，环比上涨 8.3%。SPDR 黄金 ETF 环比增加 0.1%为 1087 吨。美国宣布向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲 国家加征关税。此外，欧洲方面还在考虑抛售美债。美元信用削弱趋 势短期加速抬升，避险情绪发酵下，黄金等贵金属价格上涨。长期来 看美国债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑持续，央行购金以及 黄金投资需求增长，贵金属价格重心或仍将继续抬升。 工业金属：看好工业金属上涨行情。 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 行 业 报 告 告 行 业 报 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

冲击日线5连阳！今日（1月23日）有色金属板块延续猛烈攻势，板块热门ETF——有色ETF华宝 （159876）场内涨幅盘中上探3.55%，现涨3.29%，续创历史新高！实时成交额1.07亿元，当前成交额已 超昨天全天。 ETF放量突破上市高点，或为资金买点信号！截至发稿，有色ETF华宝（159876）获资金实时净申购 5220万份，拉长时间来看，近20日狂揽8.44亿元！ | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日照 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 白银有色 | 9.97% | 14 | 有色含屈 | 工业会展 | रीवे | 768亿 | 30.294Z | | 2 | 铜陵有色 | 9.94% | mannel w | 有色金属 | 工业合属 | 铜 | 9201Z | 48.89 Z | | ਤੇ | 湖南白银 | 9.60% | Freeholder, or other of the continues of | 有色含肥 | ...

2026年伊始，全球低碳治理格局迎来标志性节点。欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）正式全面实施，海南 自贸港同步启动全岛封关运作。国内外绿色规则的双向演进，正深刻重塑产业竞争格局与资本流动方 向。与此同时，中国ESG投资生态走向成熟，如何从被动筛选走向主动进行价值发现与创造，成为市场 参与各方共同关注的议题。 中国证券报记者日前专访了中国银河证券国际ESG中心主任、首席ESG分析师马宗明，围绕CBAM落地 影响、自贸港机遇、ESG尽责管理中的痛点以及新规则下的投资策略等热点，进行了深入解读。 规则演进加速产业与估值重构 欧盟CBAM的落地，被视为影响全球贸易流动的"绿色阀门"。马宗明认为，该机制覆盖了水泥、钢铁、 铝等六大行业，对这些行业的"走出去"中国企业而言，短期内增加了合规成本与负担。尽管允许用本国 已缴纳的碳价进行抵扣，但中欧碳价存在显著差距，将对企业构成实质性成本压力。更重要的是， CBAM规则倒逼出口企业建立自身碳核算体系，并加速供应链的绿色重构。 此外，在马宗明看来，近期市场上出现的"ESG增强型指数"等工具，标志着国内ESG投资正从被动的风 险规避转向主动的价值影响。"这向企业发出了明确信号：良好 ...

● 本报记者 刘英杰 2026年伊始，全球低碳治理格局迎来标志性节点。欧盟碳边境调节机制（CBAM）正式全面实施，海南 自贸港同步启动全岛封关运作。国内外绿色规则的双向演进，正深刻重塑产业竞争格局与资本流动方 向。与此同时，中国ESG投资生态走向成熟，如何从被动筛选走向主动进行价值发现与创造，成为市场 参与各方共同关注的议题。 中国证券报记者日前专访了中国银河证券国际ESG中心主任、首席ESG分析师马宗明，围绕CBAM落地 影响、自贸港机遇、ESG尽责管理中的痛点以及新规则下的投资策略等热点，进行了深入解读。 规则演进加速产业与估值重构 欧盟CBAM的落地，被视为影响全球贸易流动的"绿色阀门"。马宗明认为，该机制覆盖了水泥、钢铁、 铝等六大行业，对这些行业的"走出去"中国企业而言，短期内增加了合规成本与负担。尽管允许用本国 已缴纳的碳价进行抵扣，但中欧碳价存在显著差距，将对企业构成实质性成本压力。更重要的是， CBAM规则倒逼出口企业建立自身碳核算体系，并加速供应链的绿色重构。 "影响是可控的，但行业转型趋势是明确的。"马宗明认为，一方面，CBAM目前主要针对大中型企业， 且有年度豁免门槛；另一方面，中国在C ...

证券日报网1月22日讯 ，亚太科技（002540）在接受调研者提问时表示，公司长期以来保持按客户订单 来组织生产的模式和执行"铝锭价格+加工费"的产品销售定价原则。其中，铝锭价格一般参照结算月上 海长江有色金属现货交易所A00铝锭现货交易高价与低价的月度平均价确定，该模式可适当转移铝价波 动影响；同时，公司会根据需要适时开展铝期货的套期业务，并通过采取合理安排铝锭采购时间等措施 更好匹配铝锭采购价格与客户订单结算价格，以减少原材料价格波动对公司业绩的不确定影响，保障公 司经营的平稳性。 ...