固定收益周报 成交金额继续下降，信用利差整体收窄 ――信用债周报 分析师：李济安 SAC NO：S1150522060001 2025 年 7 月 22 日 核心观点： 本期（7 月 14 日至 7 月 20 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率有所分 化，表现为高等级整体上行，中低等级整体下行态势，整体变化幅度为-5 BP 至 3 BP。本期信用债发行规模环比微降，其中，公司债、定向工具发行金额 减少，企业债、中期票据、短期融资券发行金额增加；信用债净融资额环比 减少，企业债、定向工具净融资额增加，公司债、中期票据、短期融资券净 融资额减少，企业债、定向工具、短期融资券净融资额为负，公司债、中期 票据净融资额为正。二级市场方面，本期信用债成交金额继续环比下降，各 品种成交金额均减少。收益率方面，本期信用债收益率整体下行。信用利差 方面，中短期票据、企业债、城投债信用利差整体收窄。分位数来看，各等 级基本处于历史低位，部分 AAA 级 5 年期品种信用利差处于 7%左右分位， 仍有少量压缩空间。绝对收益角度来看，供给不足和相对旺盛的配置需求对 信用债走强形成持续支撑，尽管多空因素影响下震荡调整难以避免，但长远 来 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares are expected to experience a "first oscillation, then upward" trend in the second half of the year, with structural opportunities highlighted in technology growth and dividend assets [1][2][3] Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the A-share market will see a continuous upward adjustment in the second half, driven by a weak dollar trend, supportive capital market policies, and improved liquidity [2] - The market is expected to present a "stable index, structural bull" scenario, with significant opportunities for value re-evaluation in technology and emerging consumption sectors [2] - The overall liquidity environment is anticipated to improve, supporting a gradual recovery in the market's fundamentals [3] Investment Opportunities - Key sectors expected to perform well include stable assets and growth-oriented technology assets, with a focus on transportation, consumer goods, publishing, gaming, and high ROE sectors [4] - Growth assets are likely to center around military industry, pharmaceuticals, communications, gaming, and AI technologies [4] - Specific investment opportunities include domestic consumption sectors, technology growth in AI and robotics, and industries benefiting from cost improvements [5] Analyst Recommendations - Analysts suggest focusing on five areas: domestic consumption, technology growth, cost-improved industries, structural opportunities from overseas expansion, and stable dividend-paying assets [5] - Emphasis is placed on technology sectors marked by innovation and strategic significance, as well as consumer services and new consumption trends [5]

6月18日，东岳硅材（300821）发布公告称，参股公司山东东岳未来氢能材料股份有限公司（简称"未来 材料"）已完成中国证券监督管理委员会山东监管局的上市辅导验收。未来材料计划在科创板首次公开 发行股票并上市，东岳硅材持有其5.14%的股份。 资料显示，东岳硅材成立于2006年12月，主营业务是有机硅材料的研发、生产和销售。 所属行业：基础化工–化学制品–有机硅 达梦数据：上半年营收预计增长40.63%-45.74% 6月18日，达梦数据（688692）发布公告称，据公司财务部门初步测算，公司1-6月预计实现营业收入 4.95亿-5.13亿元，同比增长40.63%-45.74%。 资料显示，达梦数据成立于2000年11月，主营业务是面向大中型公司、企事业单位、党政机关提供各类 数据库软件及集群软件、云计算与大数据产品、数据库一体机等一系列数据库产品及相关技术服务。 所属行业：计算机–软件开发–垂直应用软件 东岳硅材：参股公司未来材料完成科创板上市辅导验收 海螺新材：拟1.86亿元收购康宁特80%股权及工程公司100%股权 6月18日，海螺新材（000619）发布公告称，控股子公司安徽海螺环境科技有限公司拟以1 ...

Group 1 - The June ETF rebalancing will lead to significant adjustments in over 2.7 trillion yuan of equity ETFs, affecting major indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen [1] - Passive inflows are concentrated in sectors such as electronics and banking, while sectors like electric equipment and automotive are experiencing outflows [1] - Within the secondary industry, semiconductors and rural commercial banks are seeing the most inflows, whereas motorcycles and batteries are facing notable outflows [1] Group 2 - Individual stocks such as Tuojing Technology and Guotai Haitong are among those with the highest passive inflow rankings [1] - The correlation between stock price performance and passive rebalancing is significant, with greater inflows leading to more pronounced excess returns prior to the effective date of adjustments [1] - Historical experiences indicate that the impact of index adjustments on stock prices may diminish over time, particularly after the effective date [1] Group 3 - The overall market outlook for A-shares is neutral, as there are both inflows that may drive prices up and outflows that could lead to price declines [3] - Specific ETFs mentioned include the Food and Beverage ETF, which has seen a recent net inflow of 573,000 yuan, and the Gaming ETF, which experienced a net outflow of 53.238 million yuan [5][6]

Market Overview - The market opened positively with more gainers than losers, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3350, indicating potential for further upward movement [5] - Technical analysis shows no significant signals in various cycles for the Shanghai Composite Index, but a short-term trend shift from weak to strong is noted, with short-term resistance identified in the 3380-3420 range [5][9] Sector Performance - The healthcare and consumer sectors showed strong performance, with significant movements in pharmaceutical stocks [13] - The stablecoin sector experienced a pullback after an initial surge, but it is expected to remain active due to upcoming regulatory developments and IPOs [10][11] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to monitor the market closely, especially those who have increased their positions recently, as there may be opportunities to reduce exposure near resistance levels [9] - The market is currently in a rapid rotation phase with no clear main theme, suggesting a focus on sectors like military, restructuring, new consumption, robotics, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals for potential short-term gains [12] Future Outlook - The upcoming events in June, including the first stablecoin IPO and a major industry conference, are expected to keep the market active and provide further investment opportunities [11] - The overall market trend remains bullish in the medium term, with short-term rebounds anticipated, particularly in the consumer and healthcare sectors [13]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月03日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 花雨欣 hyx@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20250603 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.从合约货与工业企业利润的关系，寻找库存去化与订单景气的方向——资产配置周报 （2025/05/26-2025/05/30） ➢ 2.抢出口有支撑，但强度相对温和——国内观察：2025年5月PMI ➢ 1.美国4月PCE出炉 ➢ 2.特朗普称美国钢铁进口税提高至50% ➢ 3.工业和信息化部：加大汽车行业"内卷式"竞争整治力度 ➢ 4.美国延长对中国 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the fundamental outlook is expected to improve in a pulse-like manner, supported by the stabilization of capital market expectations through the balanced fund [2] - The market is currently engaged in a game where public fund holdings are aligning with performance benchmarks, indicating a focus on thematic investments [2] - Global risk appetite is rising due to easing geopolitical tensions, as indicated by positive movements in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 [3] Group 2 - The demand is showing slight recovery, but asset turnover rates are declining, which is negatively impacting profitability [6] - The future rhythm of the industry remains unchanged, with key catalysts for the domestic AI industry still pending [7] - The article suggests a focus on consumer sectors such as air conditioning, white goods, liquor, education publishing, traditional Chinese medicine, dairy products, and non-sports apparel [20]

证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 29 年 月 日 瑞丰银行（601528.SH） 息差降幅明显收窄，拨备进一步夯实 事件：瑞丰银行披露 2025 年一季报，2025 年一季度实现营收 11.1 亿元， 同比增长 5.12%，归母净利润 4.2 亿元，同比增长 6.69%。2025Q1 末不 良率、拨备覆盖率分别为 0.97%、326.08%，较上年末分别持平、提升 5.2pc。 1、业绩表现：息差降幅同比收窄 25Q1 年营业收入、归母净利润增速分别为 5.12%、6.69%，分别较 24A 下降 10.2pc、下降 4.6pc，其中息差同比降幅收窄、业务成本节约等对业 绩形成正向贡献，具体来看： 1）利息净收入：同比增长 2.68%，较 24A 增速提升 4.3pc，25Q1 净息差 为 1.46%，较 24A 下降 4bps（24Q1 下降 13bps），息差同比降幅明显收 窄，主要得益于计息负债成本改善，其中生息资产收益率、计息负债成本 率分别下降 11bps、下降 7bps。 2）其他非息收入：同比增长 11.43%，较 24A 增速有所下降，其中投资 净收益同比 ...

25Q1 不良率（0.97%）、关注率（1.54%）分别较上年末持平、提升 9bps， 拨备覆盖率、拨贷比分别为 326.08%、3.17%，分别较上年末提升 5.2pc、 提升 7bps。25Q1 信用成本为 1.26%，同比提升 3bps。 证券研究报告 | 季报点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 29 年 月 日 瑞丰银行（601528.SH） 息差降幅明显收窄，拨备进一步夯实 事件：瑞丰银行披露 2025 年一季报，2025 年一季度实现营收 11.1 亿元， 同比增长 5.12%，归母净利润 4.2 亿元，同比增长 6.69%。2025Q1 末不 良率、拨备覆盖率分别为 0.97%、326.08%，较上年末分别持平、提升 5.2pc。 1、业绩表现：息差降幅同比收窄 25Q1 年营业收入、归母净利润增速分别为 5.12%、6.69%，分别较 24A 下降 10.2pc、下降 4.6pc，其中息差同比降幅收窄、业务成本节约等对业 绩形成正向贡献，具体来看： 1）利息净收入：同比增长 2.68%，较 24A 增速提升 4.3pc，25Q1 净息差 为 1.46%，较 24A 下降 4bps（ ...