上 市 公 司 交通运输 2025 年 08 月 27 日 密尔克卫 (603713) ——栉风沐雨二十余载，铸造民营危化品物流领先者 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025H1 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 12,118 | 7,035 | 13,815 | 15,669 | 17,685 | | 同比增长率（%） | 24.3 | 17.4 | 14.0 | 13.4 | 12.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 565 | 352 | 672 | 818 | 1,026 | | 同比增长率（%） | 31.0 | 13.1 | 18.8 | 21.8 | 25.5 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 3.45 | 2.22 | 4.25 | 5.17 | 6.49 | | 毛利率（%） | 11.4 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 12.8 | | ROE（%） | 13.1 | 7.8 | 13.6 | 14.2 | 15.2 | | 市盈 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.04 billion RMB in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million RMB, up 13% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.69 billion RMB, a growth of 19.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 180 million RMB, which is a 12.3% increase year-on-year [2] - The company overcame downward pressure on freight rates, with the CCFI index averaging 1162 in Q2 2025, down 19% year-on-year, yet still achieved revenue growth due to increased business volume [2] - The company is focusing on smart supply chain services and enhancing chemical distribution services, acquiring several key clients in the new energy, chemical, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical sectors [2] - The company has maintained a warehouse asset utilization rate of 85% and is progressing well with self-built bases in Zhanjiang and Huizhou [2][3] - The gross profit margin improved to 11.3% in Q2 2025, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a lower decline in freight forwarding gross profit per container compared to freight rate declines [3] - The company completed equity investments totaling 183 million RMB, primarily in the chemical new materials and logistics sectors, enhancing its supply chain service capabilities [3] Summary by Sections Performance - H1 2025 revenue: 7.04 billion RMB, up 17.4% YoY - H1 2025 net profit: 350 million RMB, up 13% YoY - Q2 2025 revenue: 3.69 billion RMB, up 19.3% YoY - Q2 2025 net profit: 180 million RMB, up 12.3% YoY [2] Operational Analysis - Q2 2025 CCFI index: 1162, down 19% YoY - Revenue growth driven by increased business volume despite freight rate pressures - Focus on smart supply chain and chemical distribution services with new key clients [2][3] Profitability and Expenses - Q2 2025 gross profit margin: 11.3%, up 0.4 percentage points YoY - Q2 2025 expense ratio: 4.5%, up 0.2 percentage points YoY - Q2 2025 net profit margin: 4.9%, down 0.3 percentage points YoY [3] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027: 650 million RMB, 800 million RMB, 950 million RMB - Maintained "Buy" rating [4]

Group 1 - The article highlights the successful harvest of lychee in Guangdong, with farmers benefiting from cold chain logistics that allow for longer preservation and transportation of the fruit [1] - A cold chain logistics park is under construction in Leizhou, supported by financing from the China Development Bank, aimed at enhancing the distribution of local agricultural products [1][2] - The first phase of the cold chain logistics park will cover an area of nearly 120,000 square meters, featuring various temperature-controlled facilities to meet the preservation needs of different food categories [1][2] Group 2 - Since the fourth quarter of last year, the China Development Bank's Guangdong branch has issued 200 million yuan in loans to support the cold chain project, which is expected to boost local industries and facilitate the national market access for agricultural products [2] - The logistics sector is crucial for connecting production and consumption, with the bank focusing on reducing logistics costs and promoting high-quality development in modern logistics [2][8] - In the first half of this year, the bank issued 12 billion yuan in loans for logistics infrastructure, marking a 67% increase year-on-year [2] Group 3 - The China (Meishan) International Cold Chain Supply Chain Project in Ningbo is being developed to enhance cold chain logistics capabilities, featuring modern warehouses with temperature ranges from -60°C to 20°C [3][4] - The project aims to provide comprehensive services including cold storage, customs inspection, and supply chain digital monitoring, with the first phase already operational [4] - The project is expected to facilitate the import of high-quality fresh produce into the domestic market, significantly improving inspection efficiency [4] Group 4 - The Huaihua International Land Port is emerging as a new trade channel for foreign trade, with over 2,000 trains dispatched since May, enhancing logistics efficiency for inland regions [5] - The China Development Bank is providing financing support for the construction of a multi-modal transport center and related infrastructure upgrades at the land port [5][6] - The ongoing projects are set to improve the hub's capacity and support the establishment of a national cold chain logistics base [6] Group 5 - The Tianjin South Port Hazardous Chemicals Smart Logistics Service Center has been completed, addressing previous challenges in hazardous materials transport and providing comprehensive services for drivers [7] - The project received 130 million yuan in loans from the China Development Bank, aimed at enhancing the logistics capabilities for hazardous materials in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [7] - The center is expected to improve the supply chain service capabilities for chemical products in the region [7][8]

Group 1 - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the hazardous chemical logistics park industry, including definitions, classifications, and relevant terminology [2] - It outlines the macro environment analysis of China's hazardous chemical logistics parks, focusing on policy, economic, social, and technological factors [3] - The report discusses the historical development, market supply and demand conditions, and pain points of the hazardous chemical logistics industry in China [3][4] Group 2 - The current status of hazardous chemical logistics park construction in China is analyzed, including the number of completed parks, their structural types, and ongoing/planned projects [4][5] - The report examines the operational models of hazardous chemical logistics parks, including development modes, funding sources, and logistics operation strategies [4][6] - It highlights the regional distribution and key construction situations of hazardous chemical logistics parks across various provinces, such as Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Guangdong [5][6] Group 3 - The report includes case studies of representative hazardous chemical logistics parks, detailing their development history, location advantages, construction status, and future planning [5][6] - A SWOT analysis is conducted to evaluate the development potential and market forecasts for hazardous chemical logistics parks in China [6] - Investment strategies and recommendations for the hazardous chemical logistics park sector are provided, identifying opportunities in niche markets and regions [6]