基于对全球贵金属市场技术面走势、供需基本面、宏观政策周期及全球避险情绪的深度追踪与专业研判，Wmax认为，当前全球贵金属市场正呈现极致分化 格局：现货黄金虽站稳关键支撑位，但历史性超买已带来显著的结构性回调风险，牛熊转折进入关键观测窗口；现货白银则凭借避险与工业双重属性持续领 跑贵金属市场，不仅年内涨幅跑赢黄金，更有望创下有记录以来最长连续月度上涨纪录，成为当前市场首选的对冲资产。 从价位结构来看，Wmax研判，5200-5300美元/盎司是黄金当前面临的重大阻力区间。当前黄金突破已出现明显的动能衰竭风险，价格走势与1月金价从历史 高点急剧下跌前的形态高度相似——相对强弱指标已重返1月时的超买水平，而该位置正是此前金价大幅回调的核心前置信号。除非金价能果断突破5200美 元和5300美元附近的阻力带，否则将难以维持在5000美元上方的涨幅，当前头寸过度扩张的问题，已显著增加黄金出现急剧回调的脆弱性。 下行方向上，Wmax将5100美元/盎司定为决定黄金后续走势的核心多空分水岭。若金价重新收于5100美元关口下方，将再次面临盘整风险，下行区间将首先 延伸至4800美元大关；若该水平失守，黄金将依次挑战4600美 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a shift in market expectations towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by weak labor market data and changes in monetary policy outlook [1][3] - The labor market data showed a significant drop in job openings, with December's JOLTS vacancies falling to 6.54 million from 6.93 million in November, marking the lowest level since 2020 [1] - The yield curve has steepened following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, with expectations of a dovish monetary policy stance influencing short-term rates while long-term rates are affected by liquidity concerns [3] Group 2 - Gold prices increased by 1.6% over the week, recovering from previous declines, but the market is expected to take time to rebuild confidence and structure [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve chair's proposal to shorten the average maturity of the Fed's balance sheet may delay the issuance of long-term bonds, providing limited support for gold prices [2] - Chinese demand for precious metals is a key driver, but may weaken temporarily due to the upcoming Lunar New Year, potentially reducing volatility in the global precious metals market [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities declined, with the 30-year UST down 2 basis points to 4.85%, and the 10-year UST down 3 basis points to 4.2% [3] - The usage of overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ONRRP) fell to $3.11 billion, a decrease of $7.31 billion from the previous week [3] - The net short positions in 2-year and 10-year UST futures increased, indicating a bearish sentiment among non-commercial investors [3] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 97.6, moving in tandem with gold prices, which suggests an increasing correlation between the two [7] - The total holdings of the dollar index decreased, with non-commercial long positions down by 1,335 contracts to 17,000 contracts, while short positions decreased by 4,888 contracts to 17,000 contracts [10] - Offshore dollar liquidity costs have risen, as indicated by the decline in the 3-month Basis Swaps for both the yen and euro [13] Group 5 - The copper-to-gold ratio fell to 2.63, indicating a marginal decline in global demand momentum as copper prices dropped while gold prices rose [16] - The gold-silver ratio increased due to the rise in gold prices and the decline in silver prices, reflecting market dynamics [19] - Gold premiums increased after a price correction, indicating strong domestic buying support [28] Group 6 - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 331,000 ounces to 35.294 million ounces, while silver inventory fell by 1.523 million ounces to 39.0466 million ounces [34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 7.44 tons to 1,079.7 tons, remaining near the lower median of the past decade [39] - COMEX gold total positions fell by 78,769 contracts to 489,000 contracts, with a notable increase in short positions, indicating a growing bearish sentiment [39]

Group 1 - The current mainstream sentiment on Wall Street is characterized by a "run for cover" mentality due to a combination of valuation bubbles, intensified AI competition, and policy uncertainties, leading to a broad retreat from previously favored assets like tech stocks and precious metals [1] - The core trigger for the recent risk-off retreat is the disconnection of popular asset valuations from fundamental support, with tech stocks experiencing inflated valuations driven by the AI boom, while their earnings growth has not kept pace [2] - Precious metals, particularly silver, have seen a significant decline of 17%, attributed to speculative trading that pushed prices to unreasonable highs without underlying economic demand [2] Group 2 - The market sentiment shift from "optimistic expectations" to "cautious defense" is driven by the accumulation of multiple risk factors, including heightened competition in the AI sector and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policy changes [3][4] - Investors are increasingly moving funds from high-risk, overvalued assets into traditional safe-haven investments like U.S. Treasuries, indicating a notable decrease in risk appetite [3] - The essence of the recent risk-off wave is a recalibration of the asset pricing system, as previous bullish assumptions about the stock market are losing their validity due to emerging challenges in AI, economic stability, and unclear monetary policy directions [4] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a volatile adjustment phase in the short term, as the digestion of valuation bubbles will take time and key variables remain uncertain [5] - Despite the current risks, the retreat presents opportunities for long-term investors as some quality assets return to reasonable price levels, and ongoing AI advancements may drive industry upgrades and economic growth in the long run [5] - Investors are advised to avoid high-valuation, speculative assets and focus on stable, reasonably valued opportunities while maintaining a cautious defensive posture by allocating to safe-haven assets [5]

科技股集体下跌。 | 了 筛选 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = □ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 高通 | N | 137.61 | -7.58% | | us QCOM | | | | | 甲骨文 | | 140.00 | -4.55% | | US ORCL | | | | | 谷歌-C | | 318.32 | -4.51% | | us GOOG | | | | | 亚马逊 | | 222.79 | -4.38% | | US AMZN | | | | | 赛富时 | | 191.47 | -4.00% | | us CRM | | | | | 美国超威公司 | | 192.70 | -3.74% | | us AMD | | | | | 特斯拉 | | 391.17 | -3.66% | | US TSLA | | | | | 微软 | | 400.13 | -3.41% | | us MSFT | | | | | Applovin Corporation | | 375.85 | -2.97% | | US APP | | | | | 英特尔 | | 47.63 ...

经历了暴涨暴跌后，贵金属市场再度企稳。截至北京时间2月3日16时28分，伦敦金现货价格从低位反弹约6%，收复4900美元/盎司关口；伦敦银现货价格反 弹约10%。市场情绪从极度恐慌中逐渐恢复，但波动率仍处于历史高位。 "最近我们调整黄金目标价的次数，绝对比过去任何时候都要频繁得多。"一位贵金属分析师在接受中国证券报记者采访时感慨道。 分析人士认为，近期贵金属市场震荡更多是行情过热后的主动降温，而非恐慌性撤离。在美元信用困局解决之前，贵金属中长期支撑价格上涨的核心逻辑依 然坚实。 5598.75美元/盎司的黄金历史最高价，9%的近40年最大单日跌幅，仅隔了一个交易日。2026年1月，贵金属市场给所有人上了一课。 开年以来大起大落 "历史上没有参照，我们只能摸着石头过河。"华闻期货总经理助理程小勇坦言，在当前国际黄金价格下，传统估值体系已难以简单套用。 从驱动逻辑看，本轮上涨行情与过去20年历次行情有本质不同。杨超表示，本轮长期影响因子包括：全球央行持续购金、美元走弱趋势、全球货币体系重 塑、经济政策不确定性对冲等结构性需求转变。 回顾过去一周，贵金属市场经历了罕见的大起大落。 1月，国际金价一度逼近5600美元 ...

5598.75美元/盎司的黄金历史最高价，9%的近40年最大单日跌幅，仅隔了一个交易日。2026年1月，贵 金属市场给所有人上了一课。 分析人士认为，近期贵金属市场震荡更多是行情过热后的主动降温，而非恐慌性撤离。在美元信用困局 解决之前，贵金属中长期支撑价格上涨的核心逻辑依然坚实。 开年以来大起大落 回顾过去一周，贵金属市场经历了罕见的大起大落。 经历了暴涨暴跌后，贵金属市场再度企稳。截至北京时间2月3日16时28分，伦敦金现货价格从低位反弹 约6%，收复4900美元/盎司关口；伦敦银现货价格反弹约10%。市场情绪从极度恐慌中逐渐恢复，但波 动率仍处于历史高位。 "最近我们调整黄金目标价的次数，绝对比过去任何时候都要频繁得多。"一位贵金属分析师在接受中国 证券报记者采访时感慨道。 1月，国际金价一度逼近5600美元/盎司，白银更是狂飙至120美元/盎司上方，截至1月29日，1月以来累 计涨幅分别高达24%和62%。然而就在市场沉浸于狂欢之际，1月末两个交易日风云突变，金价单日暴 跌逾9%，白银单日重挫超26%，令无数追高者措手不及。 本周，国际市场率先企稳反弹。Wind数据显示，截至2月3日16时28分，伦敦 ...

● 本报记者 葛瑶 5598.75美元/盎司的黄金历史最高价，9%的近40年最大单日跌幅，仅隔了一个交易日。2026年1月，贵 金属市场给所有人上了一课。 行情根基未动 经历了暴涨暴跌后，贵金属市场再度企稳。截至北京时间2月3日16时28分，伦敦金现货价格从低位反弹 约6%，收复4900美元/盎司关口；伦敦银现货价格反弹约10%。市场情绪从极度恐慌中逐渐恢复，但波 动率仍处于历史高位。 "最近我们调整黄金目标价的次数，绝对比过去任何时候都要频繁得多。"一位贵金属分析师在接受中国 证券报记者采访时感慨道。 分析人士认为，近期贵金属市场震荡更多是行情过热后的主动降温，而非恐慌性撤离。在美元信用困局 解决之前，贵金属中长期支撑价格上涨的核心逻辑依然坚实。 开年以来大起大落 回顾过去一周，贵金属市场经历了罕见的大起大落。 1月，国际金价一度逼近5600美元/盎司，白银更是狂飙至120美元/盎司上方，截至1月29日，1月以来累 计涨幅分别高达24%和62%。然而就在市场沉浸于狂欢之际，1月末两个交易日风云突变，金价单日暴 跌逾9%，白银单日重挫超26%，令无数追高者措手不及。 本周，国际市场率先企稳反弹。Wind数据显 ...

1月28日，在2026年开年后的宏观动荡中，FPG财盛国际观察到贵金属市场正迎来高光时刻。周三，现 货金价历史性地跨越了 5200 美元整数大关，在美联储利率决议公布前的敏感期，由于美元指数深跌至 近四年来的低位，市场避险情绪被彻底点燃。这一里程碑式的突破，在FPG财盛国际看来，不仅是短期 消息面的刺激，更是全球投资者对传统信用货币信心产生动摇的直接体现。 1月28日，在2026年开年后的宏观动荡中，FPG财盛国际观察到贵金属市场正迎来高光时刻。周三，现 货金价历史性地跨越了 5200 美元整数大关，在美联储利率决议公布前的敏感期，由于美元指数深跌至 近四年来的低位，市场避险情绪被彻底点燃。这一里程碑式的突破，在FPG财盛国际看来，不仅是短期 消息面的刺激，更是全球投资者对传统信用货币信心产生动摇的直接体现。 市场数据清晰地记录了这一波疯狂的涨势：现货黄金触及 5224.95 美元的新高，自年初以来的累计涨幅 已突破 20%。FPG财盛国际表示，金价与美元之间极强的负相关性是本轮行情的主驱动力。此前特朗普 总统对美元走势的置评，被市场解读为白宫内部对"弱势美元"政策已达成共识，这直接引发了美元 的"信心危机" ...

在贵金属市场一片沸腾之际，花旗将对白银的短期判断直接"拉满"。 据追风交易台，1月27日，花旗研究在最新发布的《MetalMatters》报告中，将未来0–3个月白银目标价 从100美元/盎司大幅上调至150美元/盎司。在此之前，这一100美元目标仅在两周前刚刚给出，而当前 银价已快速突破110美元关口。 花旗直言，在当前阶段，白银的表现已不再是"跟随黄金"，而更像是"打了兴奋剂的黄金 （goldonsteroids）"。 从"贵金属"到"资本配置资产"，白银正在复制黄金的定价逻辑 花旗认为，当前这轮白银行情的核心驱动力，并非传统意义上的工业需求或供给收缩，而是资本配置逻 辑的全面激活。 与黄金类似，白银正在被全球资金视为一种：对冲宏观不确定性的资产、对冲地缘政治风险的工具、 对"美联储独立性受损"风险的定价载体。 但与黄金不同的是，白银具备更高的弹性与更强的价格加速度。 过去两周，金价上涨约10%，而白银涨幅超过30%。花旗形象地将其描述为：白银不是黄金的"影子"， 而是黄金的"平方项"。 本轮白银牛市的"发动机"：中国主导、印度跟买 花旗明确指出，本轮自12月以来、白银价格"翻倍式上涨"的行情，呈现出高度 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the contrasting movements in the dollar and precious metals markets, with the dollar index dropping nearly 2% and gold achieving its best weekly performance in nearly six years, rising by 8.4% [1] - Gold prices have reached a historical high, surpassing $5,100 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 2%, showcasing the classic "see-saw" effect between the dollar and gold [1] - Silver prices also saw significant gains, reaching a peak of $109 per ounce, with both gold and silver experiencing increases of over 18% and 51% respectively within a month [1] Group 2 - The surge in the precious metals market is attributed to multiple factors, including geopolitical instability, shifts in monetary policy, and a decline in the dollar's credibility, signaling a deep transformation in the international monetary system [2] - By 2025, gold is expected to account for a larger share of global central bank foreign exchange reserves than U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996, with central banks projected to purchase an average of 60 tons of gold monthly this year, compared to about 17 tons before 2022 [2] - The ongoing high-level purchases of gold by central banks provide strong support for gold prices, as countries redefine asset safety boundaries and increase gold holdings to optimize reserve structures and hedge against systemic risks [2] Group 3 - The rising gold prices are quickly transmitting to consumer markets, with gold jewelry prices exceeding 1,575 yuan per gram, indicating a shift from traditional consumption to investment attributes in gold jewelry [3][4] - The high gold prices have suppressed some physical gold consumption demand, leading to increased interest in gold-related financial products such as structured deposits, gold ETFs, and paper gold [4] - There is a growing demand for secure storage of high-value physical gold, highlighting the preference of high-net-worth individuals for physical gold in asset allocation, driven by concerns over asset safety [5] Group 4 - The future of the gold market is uncertain, with long-term price influences stemming from changes in economic growth expectations and monetary policy, where any shifts in macroeconomic conditions or geopolitical factors could lead to significant price volatility [7] - Investors are advised to maintain sensitivity to macroeconomic environments when allocating gold assets and to diversify their portfolios, treating gold as a long-term strategic asset [7] - There is a trend among nations, institutions, and households to invest in gold as a relatively stable asset in an uncertain world, reflecting a collective vote of confidence in gold [8]