Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced a strong breakout, with significant price increases in gold and silver, driven by policy expectations and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Market Performance - New York gold futures rose by 2.8% to $4122 per ounce, marking a two-week high; Shanghai gold also increased by 2.23% to 944.76 yuan per gram [1]. - New York silver futures surged by 4.51% to $50.311 per ounce, while Shanghai silver rose by 3.09% to 11868 yuan per kilogram, indicating strong upward momentum [1]. Market Drivers - The U.S. government shutdown discussions have resumed with positive signals from both parties in the Senate, boosting market risk sentiment [1]. - Diverging views among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate policies are contributing to market uncertainty, with some advocating for a cautious approach while others support maintaining a dovish stance [1]. - The latest data shows the U.S. consumer confidence index dropped to a two-year low of 50.3, while inflation expectations remain high at 4.7%, reinforcing expectations for continued accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [1]. Central Bank Activity - Global central banks are increasing gold purchases, providing solid support for the market; China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 12 consecutive months [1]. - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks net purchased 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, a 28% increase compared to the previous quarter [1]. Short-term Outlook - The precious metals market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend driven by policy expectations and geopolitical risks [2]. - Technically, if New York gold stabilizes around the $4100 level, the next resistance may be around $4150; silver could aim for $52 if it holds above the $50 mark [2]. - There remains uncertainty regarding the U.S. government shutdown resolution, which could impact market sentiment [2].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues to show resilience amid weak employment data and rising demand for safe-haven assets, reflecting deeper considerations regarding interest rate cycles, asset allocation, and long-term inflation expectations [1][3] Employment Data - The latest ADP employment report indicates a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, contrary to market expectations of a gain of 50,000. This marks the first consecutive month of job losses since 2020 and the largest decline since March 2023 [1] - Weakness in the labor market diminishes confidence in economic recovery and strengthens expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain a rate-cutting path [1] Precious Metals Performance - In a "dollar-neutral" environment, the focus shifts to fundamental and sentiment-driven factors, with gold prices reaching a historical high of $3,922.70 before closing at $3,892.60 [2] - The upward trend has formed a "shooting star" pattern, suggesting a potential short-term market adjustment, but not necessarily a complete trend reversal [2] Investment Strategies - Institutional investors are advised to consider both macroeconomic policies and technical signals when investing in precious metals, utilizing a combination of ETFs and futures to capture price increases while hedging against short-term volatility [3] - The core variables for the precious metals market remain interest rate trends and risk aversion, with a solid long-term upward logic for prices if weak employment data and loose monetary policy persist [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent surge in gold prices to historical highs driven by weakening labor market and strong expectations for Federal Reserve's monetary easing [1] Group 1: Labor Market Weakness - Latest JOLTS data shows job vacancies declining more than expected, with job seekers outnumbering available positions for the first time in over four years, indicating structural cooling in the labor market [2] - This trend suggests a shift towards a weaker labor market, raising concerns about the economic outlook [2] Group 2: Policy Outlook Supporting Gold - Weak labor market has led to a near certainty that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with futures indicating a 98% probability of a rate cut [3] - High certainty of monetary easing reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, providing strong upward momentum for gold [3] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming unemployment claims, ADP employment report, and non-farm payroll data, although short-term data may cause fluctuations, the overall trend supports expectations for easing policies [3] Group 3: Safe-Haven Demand Amid Uncertainty - Broader political and economic uncertainties are enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and potential trade policy risks providing additional support [4] - The ongoing rise in gold prices reflects not only short-term economic data reactions but also a long-term structural uncertainty driving demand from both institutional and retail investors [4] Group 4: Multiple Factors Supporting Gold Outlook - The intersection of a deteriorating labor market, almost certain monetary easing, and rising political and economic risks creates an unprecedented favorable environment for gold [5] - In the current complex economic and policy landscape, precious metals are expected to maintain a significant role in diversified investment portfolios, particularly as the labor market continues to decline and policies remain accommodative, with gold likely to sustain high levels or even trend upwards [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant adjustment in the precious metals market due to the unexpectedly high U.S. PPI, which reignited inflation concerns and weakened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The U.S. July PPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 2.3% and the forecast of 2.5%, marking the highest level since February of this year [1] - The CME "FedWatch" tool indicates a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 7.9% [1] Group 2 - SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.86 tons to 961.36 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings fell by 28.25 tons to 15,071.31 tons [1] - SHFE silver inventory decreased by 15.7 tons to 1,150.8 tons, and SGX silver inventory dropped by 64.5 tons to 1,304.5 tons as of the week ending August 8 [1] - The focus of investors is shifting towards the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference, where interest rate cut prospects and succession issues will be discussed [1]

Core Insights - The precious metals market experienced significant adjustments due to the unexpectedly high U.S. PPI, reigniting inflation concerns and diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - The U.S. July PPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, surpassing previous values and expectations, marking the highest level since February [1] - Long-term fund holdings have changed, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreasing by 2.86 tons and iShares Silver ETF holdings decreasing by 28.25 tons [1] Economic Data - U.S. July PPI month-on-month increased by 0.9%, the largest rise since June 2022, with expectations at 0.2% [1] - Core PPI year-on-year rose by 3.7%, exceeding expectations and previous values, also the highest since February [1] - CME FedWatch indicates a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 7.9% chance of maintaining the current rate [1] Market Movements - COMEX gold contract closed at $3382.3 per ounce, down 0.76%, while SHFE gold contract rose by 0.31% to 778.7 yuan per gram [1] - SHFE silver contract increased by 0.77% to 9286 yuan per kilogram, while COMEX silver contract fell by 1.47% to $38.035 per ounce [1] - The overall market sentiment is shifting towards a potential long-term bullish outlook, with short-term adjustments expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in platinum prices, which are expected to increase by 50% by 2025, making it a popular alternative to gold among younger consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of July 9, 2025, the spot platinum price has increased nearly 50%, surpassing gold's performance [2][3]. - The year-to-date performance of platinum shows a 49.68% increase, while silver has also seen a rise of over 25% [3]. Group 2: Market Demand - Platinum is gaining popularity as a "gold alternative" due to its price advantage and rarity, especially among younger consumers [8][10]. - Sales of platinum jewelry have increased significantly, particularly in the wedding market, where platinum rings are in high demand [10][12]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in platinum prices is driven by supply shortages and a substitution effect from gold, with a reported 10% decrease in global platinum supply in Q1 2025 [14]. - The demand for platinum is bolstered by traditional uses in automotive and chemical industries, as well as emerging applications in hydrogen energy [14]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Investors are increasingly viewing silver and platinum as attractive investment options, with expectations of continued price increases in the coming years [11][15]. - The World Bank forecasts a 17% increase in silver prices in 2025, while platinum is expected to rise by 10% [15].

Group 1 - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong rally, with silver prices reaching a 13-year high and platinum hitting a two-year high, indicating investor enthusiasm for industrial precious metals [1] - As of Friday, spot silver continued its upward trend, having surged 4.5% the previous day, while platinum prices rose by 1.7% during the day, and gold also saw an increase [1] - The recent price increases are driven by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements, with strong physical silver demand in India and a recovery in platinum demand in China providing significant market support [1] Group 2 - Over the past 12 months, gold has risen over 40%, primarily supported by escalating global trade tensions and continued central bank purchases [1] - Although silver and platinum have year-to-date increases of approximately 19% and 13% respectively, they lag behind gold; however, their industrial properties are crucial drivers, with silver being a key material for solar panels and platinum widely used in internal combustion engines and catalytic converters [1] - Predictions indicate that both silver and platinum markets may face supply shortages this year [1] Group 3 - If silver can maintain a price above $35 per ounce, it may trigger increased retail investor interest; platinum ETF holdings have increased by over 3% since mid-May, indicating a return of funds to the market [1] - Silver ETFs have seen continuous inflows since February, with a nearly 8% increase in holdings [1] - Palladium prices also rose by 1.4% on Friday, influenced by market sentiment [1] Group 4 - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3,368.87 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.4%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index has slightly risen by 0.1% [2] - The market is focused on upcoming U.S. employment data, with an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims reinforcing expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - The current precious metals rally reflects a blend of safe-haven demand and industrial recovery, with silver and platinum needing to maintain key price levels while monitoring ETF fund flows and economic data for sustainability of the upward trend [2]

Group 1 - The precious metals market in April exhibited three main characteristics: first, COMEX gold reached a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce before retreating, with policy expectations causing increased volatility, resulting in a monthly fluctuation exceeding 12% [1][2] - Second, silver lagged due to its industrial properties, with the gold-silver ratio climbing to 105.26, a 20-year high, although expectations for the peak season of photovoltaic installations hinted at an inventory turning point [1][2] - Third, the market's trading logic shifted from "stagflation hedging" to "interest rate speculation," with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy path becoming a core variable for price fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - Looking ahead to May, the precious metals market may enter a "data validation period," with three core variables expected to dominate price trends: first, the Federal Reserve's May meeting, where despite expectations to maintain interest rates, any indication of liquidity easing could strengthen gold's anti-stagflation narrative [3] - Second, the "gray rhino" effect of global geopolitical risks continues to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Lastly, the realization of the peak season for photovoltaic installations is crucial, with China's first-quarter photovoltaic capacity additions increasing by 38% year-on-year, although declining component export prices may delay silver inventory replenishment [3] - The company maintains a strategy of "anchoring trends with gold and capturing elasticity with silver," focusing on support levels for COMEX gold around $3150 to $3250 per ounce and stronger bullish support for Shanghai gold futures near 760 yuan per gram [3]