本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【周四贵金属市场明显调整，受美PPI超预期影响】周四，因晚间美PPI大超预期，重燃通胀担忧并削 弱美联储降息预期，贵金属市场明显调整。特别是关税问题在通胀上显现，美指和美债收益率明显回 升，其影响力大于CPI。周边资产方面，原油回升，比特币下跌，美股震荡，南华有色金属指数震荡调 整。 最终，COMEX黄金2512合约收报3382.3美元/盎司，跌幅0.76%；美白银2509合约收报38.035美元/ 盎司，跌幅1.47%。SHFE黄金2510主力合约778.7元/克，涨幅0.31%；SHFE白银2510合约收9286元/千 克，涨幅0.77%。 美国7月PPI同比+3.3%，远高于前值+2.3%和预期+2.5%，为今年2月以来最高水平； 环比0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅，预期0.2%，前值0%。核心PPI同比+3.7%，预期3%，前值 2.6%，为2月以来最高水平；环比+0.9%，预期0.2%，前值0%，为2022年4月以来最大涨幅。 年内降息 次数预期降温，浇灭9月降息50BP幻想。CME"美联储观察"数据显示，9月维持利率不变概率7. ...

Core Insights - The precious metals market experienced significant adjustments due to the unexpectedly high U.S. PPI, reigniting inflation concerns and diminishing expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - The U.S. July PPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, surpassing previous values and expectations, marking the highest level since February [1] - Long-term fund holdings have changed, with SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreasing by 2.86 tons and iShares Silver ETF holdings decreasing by 28.25 tons [1] Economic Data - U.S. July PPI month-on-month increased by 0.9%, the largest rise since June 2022, with expectations at 0.2% [1] - Core PPI year-on-year rose by 3.7%, exceeding expectations and previous values, also the highest since February [1] - CME FedWatch indicates a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 7.9% chance of maintaining the current rate [1] Market Movements - COMEX gold contract closed at $3382.3 per ounce, down 0.76%, while SHFE gold contract rose by 0.31% to 778.7 yuan per gram [1] - SHFE silver contract increased by 0.77% to 9286 yuan per kilogram, while COMEX silver contract fell by 1.47% to $38.035 per ounce [1] - The overall market sentiment is shifting towards a potential long-term bullish outlook, with short-term adjustments expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in platinum prices, which are expected to increase by 50% by 2025, making it a popular alternative to gold among younger consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of July 9, 2025, the spot platinum price has increased nearly 50%, surpassing gold's performance [2][3]. - The year-to-date performance of platinum shows a 49.68% increase, while silver has also seen a rise of over 25% [3]. Group 2: Market Demand - Platinum is gaining popularity as a "gold alternative" due to its price advantage and rarity, especially among younger consumers [8][10]. - Sales of platinum jewelry have increased significantly, particularly in the wedding market, where platinum rings are in high demand [10][12]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in platinum prices is driven by supply shortages and a substitution effect from gold, with a reported 10% decrease in global platinum supply in Q1 2025 [14]. - The demand for platinum is bolstered by traditional uses in automotive and chemical industries, as well as emerging applications in hydrogen energy [14]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Investors are increasingly viewing silver and platinum as attractive investment options, with expectations of continued price increases in the coming years [11][15]. - The World Bank forecasts a 17% increase in silver prices in 2025, while platinum is expected to rise by 10% [15].

Group 1 - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong rally, with silver prices reaching a 13-year high and platinum hitting a two-year high, indicating investor enthusiasm for industrial precious metals [1] - As of Friday, spot silver continued its upward trend, having surged 4.5% the previous day, while platinum prices rose by 1.7% during the day, and gold also saw an increase [1] - The recent price increases are driven by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements, with strong physical silver demand in India and a recovery in platinum demand in China providing significant market support [1] Group 2 - Over the past 12 months, gold has risen over 40%, primarily supported by escalating global trade tensions and continued central bank purchases [1] - Although silver and platinum have year-to-date increases of approximately 19% and 13% respectively, they lag behind gold; however, their industrial properties are crucial drivers, with silver being a key material for solar panels and platinum widely used in internal combustion engines and catalytic converters [1] - Predictions indicate that both silver and platinum markets may face supply shortages this year [1] Group 3 - If silver can maintain a price above $35 per ounce, it may trigger increased retail investor interest; platinum ETF holdings have increased by over 3% since mid-May, indicating a return of funds to the market [1] - Silver ETFs have seen continuous inflows since February, with a nearly 8% increase in holdings [1] - Palladium prices also rose by 1.4% on Friday, influenced by market sentiment [1] Group 4 - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3,368.87 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.4%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index has slightly risen by 0.1% [2] - The market is focused on upcoming U.S. employment data, with an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims reinforcing expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - The current precious metals rally reflects a blend of safe-haven demand and industrial recovery, with silver and platinum needing to maintain key price levels while monitoring ETF fund flows and economic data for sustainability of the upward trend [2]

Group 1 - The precious metals market in April exhibited three main characteristics: first, COMEX gold reached a historical high of $3509.9 per ounce before retreating, with policy expectations causing increased volatility, resulting in a monthly fluctuation exceeding 12% [1][2] - Second, silver lagged due to its industrial properties, with the gold-silver ratio climbing to 105.26, a 20-year high, although expectations for the peak season of photovoltaic installations hinted at an inventory turning point [1][2] - Third, the market's trading logic shifted from "stagflation hedging" to "interest rate speculation," with the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's policy path becoming a core variable for price fluctuations [1][2] Group 2 - Looking ahead to May, the precious metals market may enter a "data validation period," with three core variables expected to dominate price trends: first, the Federal Reserve's May meeting, where despite expectations to maintain interest rates, any indication of liquidity easing could strengthen gold's anti-stagflation narrative [3] - Second, the "gray rhino" effect of global geopolitical risks continues to support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Lastly, the realization of the peak season for photovoltaic installations is crucial, with China's first-quarter photovoltaic capacity additions increasing by 38% year-on-year, although declining component export prices may delay silver inventory replenishment [3] - The company maintains a strategy of "anchoring trends with gold and capturing elasticity with silver," focusing on support levels for COMEX gold around $3150 to $3250 per ounce and stronger bullish support for Shanghai gold futures near 760 yuan per gram [3]