行业点评报告 · 计算机行业 国产 AI 春节档攻势如潮，全球 AI 趋向务实 ——2026 年春节档 AI 产业动态点评 2026 年 2 月 23 日 核心观点 计算机行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 吴砚靖 ：wuyanjing@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130519060002 邹文倩 ：zouwenqian@chinastock.com.cn 分析师证书编码：S0130519060003 相对沪深 300 表现图 2026 年 2 月 23 日 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 计算机SW 沪深300 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 事件：2026 年春节档，全球 AI 产业呈现分化特征，标志性事件体现为： 1、 国 产 AI 厂 商 借 助 春 节 效 应 争 夺 C 端 生 态 入 口 ， 并 一 度 屠 榜 OpenRouter 周度实时性价比榜单前三：2026 年春节期间，国产大模型 在开发者平台 OpenRouter 的实时性价比榜单上一度包揽前三。智谱 AI 同 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Perfect World’s RPG game "Yihuan" has received positive feedback during its third testing phase, which is expected to significantly drive revenue growth for the company [1] - "Yihuan" is developed using Unreal Engine 5 and is a two-dimensional urban-themed open-world game, with over 20 million official reservations and 4.81 million reservations on TapTap as of February 6, 2026 [1] - ByteDance launched the Seedance 2.0 video generation model on the Jimeng platform, which has garnered extensive evaluation and discussion in the AI industry, showcasing impressive capabilities in multi-modal content generation [1] Group 2 - The media and gaming industry is experiencing a "triple resonance" of policy turning points, supply recovery, and demand validation, supported by favorable policies and the longest Spring Festival holiday in history [2] - The Huaxia Media ETF (516190) closely tracks the CSI Entertainment and Media Index, which aligns with the "GEO concept," making it a good vehicle for capturing opportunities in AI applications and the media industry [2] - The Gaming ETF (159869) tracks the CSI Animation and Gaming Index, which has the highest AI application content in the market, accurately covering the overall performance of the A-share animation and gaming industry [2]

◎张玮华 记者 王敬博 "市场情绪如同钟摆，总是在过度乐观与过度悲观之间摆动，而极端点往往是反转的信号。"在接受上海 证券报记者专访时，招银理财权益投资部总经理戴康引用这一比喻来解读市场。在他看来，当前市场的 波动，正是投资者需要在"钟摆"情绪中把握"价格与价值预期差"的博弈过程。 戴康认为，当前，驱动行情的流动性底色与AI产业叙事并未转向，2026年上半年市场仍有向上空间。 投资的关键在于通过"杠铃策略"平衡风险与收益，并精准把握"AI+"与"服务业+"两大主线。 流动性行情核心逻辑未变 近期A股市场呈现震荡格局，板块轮动加速。在此背景下，市场对行情主线能否延续尤为关注。 戴康认为，本轮行情是由流动性驱动的行情，其核心驱动因素与2014年至2015年的情形相似，均具备利 率较低、政策鼓励及明确的产业趋势引领等特征，本质上是市场风险偏好提升，驱动居民资产配置转向 股市，从而引发的估值扩张。结合国内外政策预期看，当前的全球流动性仍相对宽松，AI主导的专业 叙事也尚未打破，本轮行情仍具备持续性基础。 在坚定看好行情主线的同时，戴康提示了两点值得关注的变化与风险： 一是市场演进形态可能更趋平缓。中国证监会在2026 ...

□张膺浩 《沈阳市促进数字经济产业高质量发展政策》（以下简称《政策》）近日出台，将于2月7日起施行，以 算力券、数据券、标注券为核心的六条举措，跳出了"长篇大论"的窠臼，用直达痛点的"干货"为区域数 字经济高质量发展注入强劲动能。在各地数字经济政策存在同质化、倡导性条款偏多的背景下，这份精 炼的新政彰显了老工业基地以精准治理激发创新活力的破局智慧。 新政的亮眼之处，在于构建了覆盖数字经济全链条的支撑体系。算力券破解"用不起"的成本困境，数据 券则直击"不愿放"的数据流通难题，以实际交易额10%的奖励撬动市场主体开放数据的积极性，让"沉 睡的数据"转化为生产要素。而标注券对优秀企业及技术突破平台的分级奖励，更补齐了AI产业发展的 基础短板——高质量数据标注是大模型训练的"粮食"，政策倾斜能加速培育专业标注生态，为数字产业 向上突破筑牢根基。三类券种各司其职又相互衔接，形成"算力支撑—数据流通—基础夯实"的闭环赋能 格局。 （来源：沈阳日报） 政策的务实性，更体现在与区域产业生态的深度契合。去年10月启用的沈阳人工智能中心拥有1012P算 力规模，相当于约50万台高性能计算机的总和，位居辽宁首位，为AI产业发展夯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming 20th Private Equity Fund Development Forum, focusing on the theme of "Walking Towards the Light, Stars and Rivers for Miles," which aims to explore new paths for high-quality development in China's private equity fund industry through discussions on AI empowerment, investment opportunities in equity markets, and the value of CTA strategy allocation [2]. Group 1: Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - From a cyclical perspective, the market is expected to be in an upward phase from early 2024 to 2025, with overall valuations still in a bull market mid-stage, indicating no extreme bubbles yet [4]. - AI is identified as a key investment theme for 2026, with a potential shift in focus from hardware to software as commercialization progresses, correcting the current imbalance in AI hardware investment [5]. - The market confidence has been restored due to supportive policies, declining risk-free rates, and improved profit expectations, leading to a cautious optimism for 2026 [5][6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The AI industry is seen as having significant growth potential, comparable to the early stages of the internet and new energy revolutions, with a low penetration rate and vast development space [6]. - The investment focus should be on AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals, with expectations that China could capture 20%-30% of the global innovative drug market share in the next decade [9]. - The consumer sector is expected to require a clear economic recovery and income growth for substantial gains, while the pharmaceutical sector remains promising due to aging trends [11]. Group 3: Macro-Economic Factors - The current market is characterized by a new Kondratiev wave driven by AI, alongside a transition in the global monetary system, with liquidity easing being a primary driver of market growth since September 2024 [14]. - Investment in large projects is highlighted as a significant variable for 2026, particularly in cyclical industries, while the RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable until October 2026 [15].

Group 1 - The AI industry is expected to transition from early-stage layout to a critical construction phase by 2026, with technology stocks projected to rise over 20% overall due to new growth drivers from AI applications in software, chips, and infrastructure [1] - Tesla is set to complete the commercialization of autonomous ride-hailing in over 30 cities by 2026, with a base target price of $600 and an optimistic scenario suggesting a price of $800 [1] - Apple and Google are establishing an AI partnership around Gemini technology, which is anticipated to integrate into Apple's ecosystem via a subscription model, potentially driving its market value to $5 trillion [1] Group 2 - In the AI infrastructure sector, Nebius is identified as a highly attractive acquisition target, with potential buyers including Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon [1] - Cybersecurity is highlighted as one of the standout sub-industries in technology, with Crowdstrike and Palo Alto Networks being the most favored companies in this space [1] - Oracle has successfully completed its data center expansion and is effectively managing its substantial remaining performance obligations and AI-related orders, with a potential stock price target of $250 by 2026 [2] Group 3 - The Trump administration has begun equity investments in quantum-related companies, with IonQ and Rigetti Computing being the most representative beneficiaries [2] - Microsoft is expected to enter a critical harvest period by 2026 as more enterprises accelerate the adoption of AI applications through Azure and Redmond [2] - Nvidia maintains its leading position in the global AI chip industry, with an optimistic stock price target of $275 by 2026 [2] - Wedbush is optimistic about Palantir's long-term potential, projecting a valuation of $1 trillion within the next two to three years [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown positive performance in 2025, with new productivity sectors leading the gains, driven by macroeconomic conditions, industry trends, and capital preferences [1] - The investment strategy emphasizes selecting quality assets for medium to long-term gains, focusing on fundamental performance, valuation, governance structure, business models, and competitive landscape [1] - For 2026, the market is expected to transition from extreme conditions to a more balanced state, with technology and innovative pharmaceuticals remaining key investment themes despite potential volatility [1][2] Investment Focus - The focus for 2026 will be on technology, resource products, export chains, and certain cyclical sectors, particularly in the TMT field, which includes AI-related areas such as overseas computing power and domestic controllable technology [1] - Resource products are anticipated to experience price stability due to global liquidity easing and domestic "anti-involution" policies, with current stock valuations being relatively low [1] Risks and Uncertainties - Key risks for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in 2026 include the pace of valuation recovery and confirmation of profit turning points, alongside geopolitical uncertainties and the effectiveness of domestic policies [2] - Despite these risks, the focus remains on identifying cost-effective and relatively certain assets for investment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for copper demand is optimistic, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, AI, and power grids, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand situation from 2025 to 2027, leading to an upward trend in copper prices [2][4][67]. Group 1: Copper Demand Drivers - Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to significantly increase copper consumption, with a projected CAGR of 14% from 2025 to 2030, resulting in an annual increase of 21 million tons [11][13][67]. - The AI sector is driving demand for data centers, with an anticipated additional copper requirement of 206 million tons from 2025 to 2030, averaging 34 million tons annually [16][67]. - The power infrastructure cycle, including the upgrade of aging power grid systems and AI-driven resource construction, is expected to stabilize copper demand over the long term [20][68]. Group 2: Regional Insights - In China, stable domestic demand and the development of new productive forces are expected to boost copper demand, particularly through new infrastructure projects [20][69]. - In the United States, the need for power grid updates and expansions is anticipated to support a rebound in copper demand, driven by manufacturing return and energy transition [27][30][69]. - The European Union's focus on renewable energy sources and post-war reconstruction efforts is projected to enhance copper demand [42][69]. - Other regions, such as India and Southeast Asia, are expected to see increased copper demand due to infrastructure investments and manufacturing shifts [45][50][70]. Group 3: Short-term Factors and Market Dynamics - Recent tariff impacts are expected to ease after May 2025, contributing to a more stable outlook for copper demand [4][71]. - The copper market is characterized by regional supply and demand dynamics, with geopolitical factors affecting the flow of copper and creating potential supply risks [62][71]. - The transition from aluminum to copper in certain applications is limited by technical and market challenges, which may not significantly impact overall copper demand in the short term [64][71].

Market Performance - The market showed a trend of increasing volume today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.54%, the CSI 300 by 0.81%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.6%, indicating strong performance in growth and financial sectors while consumer and stable sectors lagged [1] Economic Policy - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasized the importance of accelerating the construction of a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [3] AI Industry Development - The AI industry is experiencing continuous catalysis, with significant increases in upstream computing power, driven by expectations surrounding the release of OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and the global upgrade of optical modules to 800G/1.6T, highlighting supply shortages in key materials [4] Global Economic Factors - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased, contributing to a recovery in overseas markets, which positively impacts the A-share market [5] Independent Logic of Chinese Assets - The recent rise in Chinese assets is supported by independent factors such as enhanced national competitiveness, the release of new economic momentum, clear policy transformation, and stable economic fundamentals, which are expected to remain unaffected by external disturbances [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the development of non - ferrous related industries will prioritize high - quality development, resolve supply - side involution, reduce ineffective supply, and control smelting - end production capacity. Copper, aluminum and other non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will continue to benefit from the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries and the booming development of emerging and future industries. The industrial pattern of non - ferrous and new energy varieties will be further improved and optimized, and price trends will be more boosted by the supply and demand sides [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 "Importance of the 15th Five - Year Plan Period" The 15th Five - Year Plan period is crucial for basically realizing socialist modernization, serving as a connecting link between the past and the future. It is necessary to consolidate advantages, break through bottlenecks, and strengthen weak points. Adhering to high - quality development is particularly important for the non - ferrous metal industry pattern [6]. 3.2 "Main Goals and Industrial System Planning of the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Main Goals**: The main goals include significant achievements in high - quality development, a substantial increase in the level of scientific and technological self - reliance, new breakthroughs in further comprehensive deep - seated reforms, a notable improvement in social civilization, continuous improvement in people's living standards, new major progress in building a beautiful China, and a more solid national security barrier. High - quality development is prioritized, and the non - ferrous metal industry will focus on high - quality development, addressing supply - side issues and strengthening effective demand. The goal of a substantial increase in scientific and technological self - reliance highlights the importance of science and technology, which will drive the high - quality development of the non - ferrous new energy industry [8][11][12]. - **Industrial System Planning Clues for Non - Ferrous Metals**: In the industrial system planning, traditional industries such as mining and metallurgy related to non - ferrous metals will continue supply - side reforms. Emerging and future industries, such as new energy and quantum technology, will drive the demand for non - ferrous and new energy materials. Non - ferrous metals and new energy materials will benefit from the development of both traditional and emerging/future industries [14][15][16]. 3.3 "Prospects for Non - Ferrous Metal Terminal Industries in the 15th Five - Year Plan" - **Wind Power, Photovoltaic and Grid Energy Storage**: The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to accelerate the construction of a new energy system. The scale of new energy installations is expected to reach a new high, and the demand for energy storage and grid investment will increase to support the consumption and stable operation of new energy [17][20]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes green development. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China is expected to further increase. Although the growth rate may decline, new energy vehicles will remain an important driver of the domestic economy [21][23]. - **AI Industry**: The 15th Five - Year Plan has higher requirements for scientific and technological self - reliance. The development of the AI industry will drive the growth of semiconductor chips and increase the demand for energy storage in AI data centers, becoming a new growth engine for non - ferrous and new energy materials [24].